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Will Connor McDavid sign a contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers?
Will Connor McDavid sign a contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers?

National Post

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • National Post

Will Connor McDavid sign a contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers?

He wasn't dismissive or avoidant, but Connor McDavid didn't exactly inspire feelings of comfort and warm fuzzies in the Edmonton Oilers fan base when asked about a possible contract extension this off-season. Article content After 10 years in the NHL, all spent with the same club that drafted him first overall in 2015, and with zero Stanley Cups to show for his time here so far, McDavid will be hitting the final year of his current contract on Friday. Article content Article content Article content And that means the Oilers will be looking to lock him up to another long-term deal with an extension. One that, ideally, for the club's sake, anyway, will continue on through the remainder of the 28-year-old's prime years. Article content It's the hockey story of the summer, for anyone who might not have been paying attention. Article content So, will he stay or will he go? Obviously, he still has one more year in Edmonton before he absolutely must make a decision. So, it's not like we'll see him in a blue Maple Leaf come September. (Or ever). Article content And chances are he will stay. His wife opened a business or two in the Alberta capital, after all. And he's got a billionaire owner on his side, not to mention a city that adores the ground he walks on. (Or is it water?) Article content But if that's the case, then what was with all the talk about doing what's best for his family, and making it sound like there are even any other options out there for him to consider to begin with? Article content Maybe we're reading into it a little too much. Article content Here it is, straight from the horse's mouth. (Make that a thoroughbred unlike any seen in an entire generation): Article content Article content 'This core has been together for a long time and we've been building to this moment all along. The work that's gone on behind the scenes, the endless disappointments and some good times along the way, obviously. We're all in this together trying to get it over that finish line,' McDavid said during his exit interview last week. 'With that being said, ultimately, I still need to do what's best for me and my family. That's who you have to take care of, first. But of course there is unfinished business here. Article content Article content 'I'll take some time to re-group, talk to my agent and family and make some decisions whenever that time comes. There's no rush.' Article content He said it. 'Unfinished business.' Which is exactly what Oilers fans feel themselves, and wanted to hear. Article content But he also said: 'Endless disappointments.' And, 'what's best for me,' which isn't exactly blowing off the question and stating definitively he wants to remain in orange and blue for another decade.

'This is amazing': Panthers celebrate 2nd consecutive Stanley Cup with another parade
'This is amazing': Panthers celebrate 2nd consecutive Stanley Cup with another parade

Washington Post

time6 days ago

  • Sport
  • Washington Post

'This is amazing': Panthers celebrate 2nd consecutive Stanley Cup with another parade

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Champagne was swilled and spilled, cigars were smoked and the Stanley Cup was hoisted a few more times, all with about 400,000 people watching. The Florida Panthers are getting pretty good at these parades. The back-to-back Stanley Cup champions had their championship parade and rally on Fort Lauderdale Beach on Sunday, the same setup as last year — except this time, bright sunshine greeted the champs as opposed to downpours and lightning a year ago.

The Improbability Of Canada's Stanley Cup Drought
The Improbability Of Canada's Stanley Cup Drought

Forbes

time20-06-2025

  • Sport
  • Forbes

The Improbability Of Canada's Stanley Cup Drought

The Florida Panthers defeated the Edmonton Oilers for the second straight year in a row to capture the Stanley Cup on June 17. This marks the sixth Stanley Cup final in a row featuring a hockey team from the Sunshine State. It has been an incredible stretch of hockey at the highest levels for both the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning. On the other side of the emotional spectrum, Canadians are once again left waiting to bring the Cup back to the birthplace of ice hockey. There was a sense that this might finally be the year Canada broke its long, frustrating drought. Hopes were high going into this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs, as five of seven Canadian NHL teams qualified for the postseason. The last time a Canadian team won the cup was in 1993 when the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Los Angeles Kings. That was also the debut season for the Tampa Bay Lightning and came just one year before the Florida Panthers joined the league. In the time since, teams from Florida have hoisted the Cup five times. For Canadian hockey fans, this is not just another painful moment, it is a gut punch laced with irony. The notion that teams from sun-soaked Florida could be celebrating year after year while Canada remains empty-handed feels almost cruel. And yet, as improbable as it seems, this run of southern dominance is very real. This is where probability theory can offer a new perspective. What are the odds that Canada could go over three decades without a Stanley Cup? How likely is it that two relatively young franchises from a non-traditional hockey market could have this much success? And perhaps most importantly: when, statistically speaking, might Canadian fans finally get to celebrate again? To put a number to Canada's hockey heartbreak, I built a Bayesian model. This is a statistical approach that is designed to capture long-term trends while staying grounded in a fair and interpretable framework. At its core, a Bayesian approach is a way of updating a belief state in light of new evidence. It starts with a prior belief which is an initial estimate of how likely something is to happen. As new data comes in, that belief is updated to form a posterior belief, which becomes a more refined, data-informed estimate. The model begins with a neutral prior belief known as a Beta(1, 1) distribution, which assumes no preconceived belief about whether Canadian teams are more or less likely to win the Stanley Cup in a given season. This assumption that replicates the extreme uncertainty inherent in sports. From there, each season after the NHL-WHL merger becomes a data point. The model looks at whether a Canadian team won the Stanley Cup. If one of them did, that year adds a 'success' to the tally. If not, it's another 'miss.' With each new season, the model refines its estimate of how likely it is that a Canadian team will win in a given year. The beauty of the Bayesian approach is that it balances the weight of history with the possibility of change. What emerges is a dynamic, evolving probability. It is a quantifiable value that captures just how long the Cup has stayed away from Canada, and how likely it is to come home anytime soon. Between 1980 and 1993, Canadian teams were a dominant force in the NHL, capturing eight Stanley Cups in just 14 seasons. The Edmonton Oilers led the charge with five titles during their dynasty years, followed by the Montreal Canadiens with two, and the Calgary Flames with one. At the time, it felt like the Cup belonged to Canada. Heading into the 1993–1994 season and fresh off the Canadiens' most recent Cup win, the Bayesian model, would have estimated about a 60% chance that a team from Canada would win the Cup that year. But as the seasons passed and the Cup stayed south of the border, that probability began to fall. Over time, it gradually leveled off around 20%, aligning closely with what you would expect if every NHL team had an equal shot in a 32-team league. Using this model, the probability that no Canadian team has won a Stanley Cup since 1993 is 0.0000037 or roughly 1 in 300,000. That is roughly the same odds as flipping a fair coin and getting heads 18 times in a row. In a sport defined by randomness and parity, this kind of losing streak is not just heartbreaking. It is statistically absurd. The same Bayesian model that tracks Canada's teams' annual probability to win the Stanley Cup can be used to predict when a Canadian NHL team will win again. In simple terms, the expected wait time is just the inverse of the annual win probability. After updating the model following the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, the estimated probability that a Canadian team wins in any given season is 19%. Flip that number, and the math tells us something hopeful, if not immediate: on average, we can expect a Canadian team to bring home the Cup in about 5.2 years. Of course, this is just an average. Canada could win as soon as next season, or the drought could drag on longer. Canada's Stanley Cup drought is more than just a sporting oddity. It is a statistical anomaly that defies expectation. For a country that lives and breathes hockey, the fact that no Canadian team has lifted the Cup since 1993 feels more like a cosmic joke than a cold streak. The numbers suggest that Canada's fortunes will eventually turn. And when a Canadian captain finally hoists the Cup again, it will not just be a victory for one team. Rather, it will feel like the end of a national exile, long overdue and deeply earned.

Edmonton Oilers already picked as early Stanley Cup favourites in 2026
Edmonton Oilers already picked as early Stanley Cup favourites in 2026

National Post

time18-06-2025

  • Sport
  • National Post

Edmonton Oilers already picked as early Stanley Cup favourites in 2026

Cue the doom and gloom. Article content The Edmonton Oilers lost in the Stanley Cup Final. Article content Again. Article content Again. Article content And somehow, this time seems even worse than the last time around, when they bounced back from a 3-0 series deficit to force Game 7, only to end up losing by the slimmest of margins, 2-1, in their first trip back to the championship round in 18 years. Article content This time, well, it's still too soon to talk about, really. What is there to say when your team didn't bother to show up for the most important game of the season? And the one before that, while we're at it. Article content Article content A 5-2 loss in Game 5 followed by a 5-1 loss in Game 6 to bump them in their first and last elimination scenario of these playoffs saw the Oilers go quietly into the night, making for another long flight home to a city whose heart was broken once again as the 35-year Stanley Cup drought continues. But hang on. Article content Don't be so quick to abandon all hope just yet. Article content While the dust has yet to settle on another unsuccessful Stanley Cup Final, maybe don't scrap that map with the planned parade route through the heart of Alberta's capital entirely. Out of the darkness, a faint beacon can be seen, as the oddsmakers at already picked the Oilers as the early favourite to be the last team standing in 2025-26. Article content That's right. They're expected to not only go on another long run all the way back to what would be their third consecutive Cup final appearance, but to finally get over the hump and win it all next year. Article content You thought they were hungry this season? Just wait and see the team that shows up champing at the bit in the starting gates in October. Article content And if you're playing these odds, chances are the Oilers don't even have to do anything to get better for next season. They just have to stand pat and stay the course while Florida and the rest of the field gets worse. Article content 2026 Stanley Cup champion odds Article content Edmonton Oilers 6/1 Florida Panthers 13/2 (+650) Carolina Hurricanes 15/2 (+750) Dallas Stars 9/1 Colorado Avalanche 10/1 Vegas Golden Knights 12/1 Tampa Bay Lightning 16/1 Los Angeles Kings 20/1 New Jersey Devils 20/1 Toronto Maple Leafs 20/1 Winnipeg Jets 22/1 Ottawa Senators 25/1 Washington Capitals 28/1 Minnesota Wild 33/1 New York Rangers 33/1 Utah Mammoth 40/1 St. Louis Blues 45/1 New York Islanders 50/1 Vancouver Canucks 50/1 Montreal Canadiens 60/1 Nashville Predators 66/1 Columbus Blue Jackets 75/1 Detroit Red Wings 75/1 Boston Bruins 80/1 Calgary Flames 80/1 Philadelphia Flyers 80/1 Anaheim Ducks 100/1 Buffalo Sabres 100/1 Pittsburgh Penguins 100/1 Seattle Kraken 200/1 Chicago Blackhawks 300/1 San Jose Sharks 500/1

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