Latest news with #hybridwar
Daily Mail
02-07-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Poland halted migration with 'big, beautiful 116-mile fence'
Poland 's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski (pictured) has claimed a £300 million border wall has proven '98 per cent effective' at preventing attempts of illegal migration from Belarus. 'We had large numbers of people who were invited by Russia and Belarus from the Middle East and Africa who were then pushed across the Polish-Belarusian border into Poland,' Sikorski told BBCR4's Today programme. Warsaw alleges that Minsk and Moscow have long been waging a 'hybrid war', seeking to flood Poland with refugees to strain the country's finances and law enforcement resources, and destabilise civil society. Border checkpoints are also reinforced with huge concrete slabs, each weighing more than 1.5 tonnes, along with secondary walls and barbed-wire fencing. Sikorski spoke to BBCR4 amid discussions about soaring illegal migration figures in Britain, with 20,000 migrants said to have arrived in Britain via small boats crossing The Channel so far in 2025. Now, Polish authorities are proceeding full steam ahead with a new project - East Shield - which aims to transform its entire frontier with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad into one gigantic, closely surveilled fortification. The 400-mile-long construction, announced last year and targeted for completion in 2028, arguably constitutes the single most significant national security investment in Poland's post-war history at more than £2 billion. It was green-lit by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's (pictured) government in response to Russia's war in Ukraine, and Moscow and Minsk's so-called hybrid war tactics. In addition to the barbed wire-topped fencing, concrete reinforcements and secondary defences, the East Shield will see strips of land turned into minefields and littered with anti-tank fortifications including steel and concrete hedgehogs, 'dragon's teeth' obstacles and deep trenches, along with drone defence equipment. This multi-layered line of defence is expected to extend more than 200 metres back from the initial border wall. Behind these defences, Warsaw is constructing bunkers, firing posts and other military infrastructure in the forests, woods and small villages spanning the length of the country to provide yet more resistance should the deterrent fail. According to details provided by the government, the programme will also employ state-of-the-art surveillance equipment, including imagery intelligence (IMINT), signals intelligence (SIGINT), and acoustic monitoring to improve situational awareness of the would-be battlefield. Cezary Tomczyk, Poland's Secretary of State in the Ministry of National Defence, sees the mammoth project as not just a defence insurance policy for Poland, but for the whole of Europe. Speaking at the launch of the project in 2024, he said: 'Today we are making a decision that will change how we think about Poland's security for decades. This is not just Poland's border. It is the border of the European Union and NATO. The frontline of democracy, order and stability.' As such, Poland worked to attract investment from the European Union's lending and financing arm, the European Investment Bank (EIB), to help finance East Shied. In March, the defence ministry announced that the EIB had agreed in principle to spend up to €1 billion on the project, close to half the forecasted cost. Lieutenant General Stanislaw Czosnek, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, told Ukrainskaya Pravda in May that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia was the primary motivating factor behind East Shield. 'The security environment in our region has significantly deteriorated. We are in a state of hybrid war, and we are acting in advance,' he said. In the months before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Poland was already struggling to cope with a constant stream of migrants crossing the border from Belarus. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (pictured) had urged migrants to forge a path further West and even began facilitating visas and travel from Middle Eastern countries to accelerate the process. The move prompted Warsaw to break with EU migration policies and begin work on its border fence - a project whose necessity was justified in November 2021 when crowds of migrants attempted to bust through then-incomplete defences. Heavily armed riot police and border security teams were dispatched to manage the ruckus. In one particularly shocking clash, some members of a group of more than 1,000 migrants tried to hack down a barbed-wire fence only to meet a phalanx of Polish guards who forced them back with pepper spray. Poland's then-Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said: 'The Polish government is determined and we will defend the security of our country,' labelling the action an 'invasion' orchestrated by Belarus. The border wall was completed after months of work in June 2022, but the number of people lodging asylum claims in Poland only continued to increase. Hundreds of migrants have also attempted to penetrate the border fencing, mostly to no avail. Those that do manage to sneak or force their way through are swiftly detained by heavily armed Polish border guards patrolling the fence in armoured vehicles. A brazen attempt to cut through the fence in March proved the last straw for Premier Donald Tusk, who promptly suspended the right to claim asylum in Poland for 60 days, save for unaccompanied minors, pregnant women, elderly or unwell people. Earlier this year, the Polish government confirmed it would not take part in the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which the bloc implemented to manage the arrival of asylum seekers. Under the agreement, states could either relocate a certain number of migrants, pay a financial contribution or provide operation support to help resettlement. Tusk said: 'Poland will not implement the Migration Pact in a way that would introduce additional quotas of immigrants in Poland. We are ready to cooperate with everyone to protect Europe from illegal migration. However, Poland will not take on any additional burdens. We have already taken on more than anyone could have imagined just a few years ago.' As Poland continues cracking down on illegal migration, Britain is struggling with record-breaking numbers of migrants arriving via small boats. More than 20,000 people have reached Britain by crossing The Channel on migrant vessels since the start of the year. The same milestone was not hit until mid-to-late August in previous years, including 2022 - the year which went on to see a record annual total of 45,700 arrivals. Since the start of the so-called Channel crisis in 2018, more than 170,000 migrants have reached Britain by small boat - but only about four per cent have been removed. The overall cost of the asylum system was £5.3billion in 2023-24, more than double the amount spent in 2021-22. Accommodation costs are expected to hit more than £15billion over 10 years - triple the original estimate - the National Audit Office said in May. French President Emmanuel Macron's government recently agreed to change its rules so gendarmes and other officials can intercept dinghies already in the Channel, and prevent them heading for Britain. The new 'maritime doctrine', expected to come into force in the next few weeks, will allow French police to block small boat departures within 300 metres of the shoreline. However, French police unions are understood to have expressed concerns that their members may be required to enter the water wearing body armour, which can weigh up to 6lbs and would put them at risk of drowning. Last month, sources said French officers had also raised concerns about being unable to carry firearms if they are required to go into the sea, because salt water would damage the weapons. French police colonel Olivier Alary told the BBC earlier this month his teams 'will be able to do more' once the 300 metre rule comes into force.
Irish Times
17-06-2025
- Politics
- Irish Times
How the Israel-Iran war may develop
Wars are unpredictable. Even the Israelis and the Iranians cannot know how their current conflict will end. There are, however, a number of analogies to consider. The first is the six day war of 1967. The second is the Iraq war of 2003. A third scenario is a new type of conflict in which Iran uses unconventional means to strike back against Israel and the west. That could turn into a hybrid war, potentially involving terrorism or even weapons of mass destruction. The Netanyahu government would love a rerun of 1967 — in which an Israeli pre-emptive strike destroyed the Egyptian air force on the ground, in preparation for a rapid victory over Egypt, Syria and Jordan. Israel certainly has achieved rapid and spectacular early successes in this conflict. But taking out Iran's dispersed nuclear programme, much of it underground, is much more complicated than destroying targets on the ground. READ MORE [ Amount of aid getting into Gaza 'minuscule', Doctors Without Borders chief says Opens in new window ] Some critics, particularly in the US, fear that as a result we are witnessing a rerun of the early stages of the 2003 Iraq war. That, too, was supposedly fought to prevent nuclear proliferation, with the background ambition of bringing about regime change. After initial success for the US-led coalition, it turned into a bloody quagmire. It is most likely, however, that the Israel-Iran war will follow its own distinct path. One scenario that worries western security officials involves a desperate Iranian regime deciding to strike back through unconventional means. As one senior policymaker puts it: 'The reason this has not yet turned into world war three, is that Iran seems to have very limited means to strike back conventionally.' Another senior official says there may also be limitations on the Israeli government's ability to keep fighting at this intensity because its country has limited 'magazine depth' (weapons stockpiles, in non-jargon). If the Iranian regime believes that, nonetheless, it is going down to a bad defeat in a conventional conflict, it would have a difficult choice. It could meekly accept the situation and try to negotiate its way out of trouble. Or it could escalate by unconventional means. That threshold is more likely to be crossed if the regime believes it is in a battle for survival and needs to demonstrate its strength to the Iranian people and the world. Rage and the desire for vengeance should also not be underestimated. In Washington and Brussels there are concerns that if the Iranian regime is cornered it might lash out in desperation. In the recent past, the US has accused Iran of having covert biological and chemical weapons programmes. If those fears are correct, Tehran may have the means of striking back at Israeli or American targets in a deadly but deniable fashion. [ Was Iran developing nuclear weapons? Opens in new window ] The International Atomic Energy Agency has also stated that Iran has a considerable stockpile of uranium that is enriched to 60 per cent. It is generally believed that Tehran would need to get to 90 per cent enrichment to make a nuclear weapon. This could be done within days — although weaponisation would take much longer. However, weapons experts point out that it is actually possible to fashion a crude nuclear weapon with uranium enriched to 60 per cent. David Albright and Sarah Burkhard, of the Institute for Science and International Security think-tank, write that 'an enrichment level of 60 per cent suffices to create a relatively compact nuclear explosive; further enrichment to 80 or 90 per cent is not needed'. That kind of weapon would be suitable for 'delivery by a crude delivery system such as an aircraft, shipping container, or truck, sufficient to establish Iran as a nuclear power'. Iran could choose to demonstrate a crude nuclear weapon to try to shock Israel into ending the war. Another possibility is that it could actually set off a 'dirty bomb' — which uses conventional explosives to scatter radioactive material. The kind of scenario that experts worry about would be the use of a ship to detonate a device near the Israeli port of Haifa. These are the considerations that are being weighed — not just by Israel but by the US. It is generally believed that only America has bombs powerful enough to have a chance of destroying Iran's underground nuclear facility at Fordow. There are many in Washington who believe (or fear) that the US will join a second stage of the bombing campaign, in an effort to destroy Fordow and finish off Iran's nuclear weapons programme. But there would be no guarantee that even an American-led attack on Fordow could achieve that. Ehud Barak, the former prime minister of Israel, writes: 'The truth is, even the Americans cannot delay Iran's arrival at nuclear weapons by more than a few months.' Barak argues the only way to guarantee that Iran never goes nuclear is for the US and Israel 'to declare war against the regime itself until it is brought down'. But Donald Trump has repeatedly pledged to be a peacemaker and has called on Iran and Israel to make a deal. Just last month, he gave a landmark speech in Riyadh in which he scorned the idea that outsiders can bring positive change to the Middle East through force. It would be a supreme irony — and a terrible policy failure — if Trump found himself dragged into another war for regime change in the Middle East. - Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025
Russia Today
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Russia Today
France leading West's ‘party of war'
France has emerged as one of the leaders of the 'hybrid war' against Moscow, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said. She made her remarks after the EU agreed to its 17th package of sanctions. 'It is common knowledge that since 2022, Paris has been one of the most uncompromising participants in the West's hybrid war against our country,' Zakharova said during a press call on Thursday. 'Over the past few months, the French have effectively become the leaders of the West's 'party of war,'' she added, citing France's military aid to Ukraine and its push for additional sanctions on Russia. 'France has played a major role in devising illegitimate sanctions packages in the past. Now, it is attempting to blackmail us with new, supposedly broader sanctions,' Zakharova said. She argued that the restrictions are part of a 'trade war' aimed at 'hindering Russia's economic, technological, and humanitarian development, and at undermining its industrial potential.' Russia, she added, will have a 'measured response' to any new restrictions. French President Emmanuel Macron has said the EU would impose new sanctions 'in the coming days' if Moscow does not accept Ukraine's demand for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Earlier this year, Paris delivered a first batch of Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Kiev. Russia has warned that military aid to Ukraine would only lead to further escalation. President Vladimir Putin has insisted that, for a lasting ceasefire, Ukraine must halt its mobilization campaign, stop receiving weapons from abroad, and withdraw its troops from Russian territory.
Reuters
11-05-2025
- Politics
- Reuters
Poland says Russian secret service behind 2024 fire in Warsaw shopping centre
WARSAW, May 11 (Reuters) - Russian secret services were behind a massive fire that nearly completely destroyed a Warsaw shopping centre in May 2024, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Sunday after a year of investigation into the case. "We already know for sure that the large fire on Marywilska was the result of arson ordered by Russian services. The actions were coordinated by a person staying in Russia. Some of the perpetrators are already in custody, the rest have been identified and are being sought," Tusk said on X. Poland has been a target of sabotage actions, which officials said have been part of a "hybrid war" being waged by Russia to destabilize the functioning of countries that support Ukraine, involving tactics like arson and cyberattacks.
