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EU experts predict 18% tariffs on US imports by 2025 end: Survey
EU experts predict 18% tariffs on US imports by 2025 end: Survey

Fibre2Fashion

time15 hours ago

  • Business
  • Fibre2Fashion

EU experts predict 18% tariffs on US imports by 2025 end: Survey

Economic experts across the European Union (EU) anticipate a rise in tariff levels on imports from the United States by the end of 2025, with an average expected rate of 18 per cent, according to Economic Expert Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute. Experts in France, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and Romania foresee some of the highest tariffs—between 20 and 25 per cent. Meanwhile, Central European countries such as Germany, Austria, and Poland expect tariffs in the 15 to 20 per cent range, while Italy, Sweden, and Bulgaria anticipate lower rates of 10 to 15 per cent, ifo institute said on its website. In contrast, experts from non-EU European nations expect significantly lower tariffs on US imports. Swiss and Norwegian experts anticipate rates of five to ten per cent, while their British counterparts expect a 12 per cent tariff. On the other hand, US experts project a 19 per cent average tariff on EU imports to the United States. EU experts expect average tariffs on US imports to rise to 18 per cent by end-2025, though they recommend lower rates at 12.8 per cent, as per the Economic Expert Survey (EES). Non-EU nations foresee lower tariffs. US experts expect 19 per cent tariffs on EU imports but favour just three per cent. Experts overall prefer moderate tariffs and oppose rising protectionism, especially towards US goods. When asked about their normative views—what tariffs should be by the end of 2025—European experts generally advocate much lower rates. The EU average for desired tariffs on US imports stands at 12.8 per cent, with France, Portugal, and Spain still showing higher-than-average preferences (10–20 per cent), but lower than their expected figures, the survey revealed. Germany, Austria, Italy, Finland, and Sweden prefer even more moderate rates, ranging from five to 15 per cent. Notably, experts from Switzerland are the only group whose expectations and normative assessments closely align. US experts favoured even lower tariff levels on EU imports, advocating a rate of just three per cent—far below the levels European experts propose for US goods. The survey also highlighted that expectations for general tariffs on all imports (regardless of origin) are lower and less varied than for US-specific imports. EU experts expect average general tariffs to stand at 13.1 per cent by the end of 2025, with most countries—including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain—expecting rates in the 10 to 15 per cent range. Romania again stands out with a projection of 20 to 25 per cent. On the normative side, EU experts believe that ideal general tariffs should be around 9.2 per cent, reflecting a broader preference for lower trade barriers. Most assessments fall in the five to 15 per cent range, indicating that experts largely disapprove of the expected protectionist trends. The findings underscored a consistent theme: across both US-specific and general tariffs, economic experts in Europe advocate lower rates than they expect will be enacted, particularly in relation to US imports. The gap between expected and desired tariffs is notably wider for US-specific trade, suggesting greater concern over escalating trade tensions with the United States. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)

German business sentiment rises slightly in July: ifo
German business sentiment rises slightly in July: ifo

Fibre2Fashion

timea day ago

  • Business
  • Fibre2Fashion

German business sentiment rises slightly in July: ifo

The ifo Business Climate Index edged up to 88.6 points in July, compared to 88.4 in June, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment among German companies. Companies were somewhat more satisfied with their current business situation, while expectations remained largely unchanged. The upturn in the German economy remains sluggish. Manufacturing sentiment strengthened in July, with the balance improving from -13.9 to -11.8. Companies assessed their current situation as noticeably better, with expectations continuing to brighten. Yet, incoming orders still lack momentum, and capacity utilisation increased only marginally from 77 to 77.2 per cent, according to the ifo Institute. Germany's ifo Business Climate Index rose slightly to 88.6 in July from 88.4 in June, reflecting modest improvement in sentiment. Manufacturing sentiment improved, though incoming orders remained weak. Capacity utilisation edged up to 77.2 per cent. Trade sentiment declined due to pessimistic expectations. Overall, the current situation index rose to 86.5, while expectations inched up to 90.7. 'In trade, the index weakened somewhat due to more pessimistic expectations. Although the current situation improved slightly, it remained unsatisfactory,' said Clemens Fuest, president of the ifo Institute . The sector's balance declined to -20.2 in July from -19.2 in June. Overall, the assessment of the current situation improved to 86.5 from 86.2, while business expectations edged up to 90.7 from 90.6, continuing their steady upward trend since the start of 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)

German business sentiment rises, but recovery faces external threats
German business sentiment rises, but recovery faces external threats

The Star

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • The Star

German business sentiment rises, but recovery faces external threats

BERLIN, July 25 (Xinhua) -- Germany's business confidence rose in July to its highest level in over a year, a survey showed Friday. However, economists cautioned that the recovery remains fragile amid persistent external headwinds, including the U.S. tariffs threat. The ifo Business Climate Index, based on a survey of around 9,000 companies, edged up to 88.6 in July from 88.4 in June, marking the seventh consecutive month of improvement. While firms expressed a more favorable view of current business conditions, their expectations for the months ahead remained subdued. Sentiment in the manufacturing sector improved slightly but stayed at relatively low levels. The ifo Institute reported that industrial capacity utilization rose from 70 percent to 77.2 percent, though this still reflects below-average levels amid weak incoming orders. In contrast, the services sector posted a decline, driven in part by a significant deterioration in expectations among IT service providers. Analysts said the downturn may be linked to heightened uncertainty, as the European Union considers retaliatory measures including tariffs or regulatory actions against U.S. technology and digital firms in response to proposed trade actions by Washington. "Companies were slightly more satisfied with current business, but their expectations remained largely unchanged," said ifo President Clemens Fuest. "The upturn in the German economy remains sluggish." Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Research, described the mood as a "wave of optimism" but warned that the outlook is clouded by trade tensions, a stronger euro, and the threat of U.S. tariffs -- all factors that could weigh on Germany's export-driven economy. A separate ifo survey published Thursday underscored growing concern among German manufacturers. More than 60 percent of 1,500 companies surveyed reported being negatively impacted by the U.S. tariffs, which are set to take effect on Aug. 1 with duties of 30 percent. One-third of respondents said they expect the U.S. market to lose importance by the end of President Donald Trump's term. Trade tensions are already shaping investment decisions: around 30 percent of companies said they had postponed their U.S. expansion plans, while 15 percent had canceled them altogether. Despite the external pressures, Brzeski noted that German companies are increasingly turning their attention to opportunities under the new government's economic agenda. Earlier this week, the German government, in collaboration with major corporations, launched a sweeping investment plan at a business summit in Berlin. Valued at 631 billion euros (739 billion U.S. dollars), the initiative aims to revive Europe's largest economy through 2028, focusing on manufacturing, research and development, and infrastructure construction. (1 euro = 1.17 U.S. dollar)

Germany's business climate hits 12-month high in June 2025: ifo
Germany's business climate hits 12-month high in June 2025: ifo

Fibre2Fashion

time25-06-2025

  • Business
  • Fibre2Fashion

Germany's business climate hits 12-month high in June 2025: ifo

Business sentiment in Germany showed signs of improvement in June 2025, with the Business Climate Index rising to 88.4 from 87.5 in May—its highest level since June 2024, according to the ifo Institute. This reflects growing optimism, particularly in future expectations, which climbed to 90.7 from 89, continuing an upward trend since February. The assessment of the current situation remained largely stable, edging up to 86.2 from 86.1. Germany's business sentiment improved in June 2025, with the ifo Business Climate Index rising to 88.4â€'its highest since June 2024. Expectations climbed to 90.7, while current assessments remained stable. Manufacturing showed stabilisation despite weak order books. Trade sentiment improved, led by wholesale gains. The climate balance rose to -6.7, indicating cautious optimism. In manufacturing, sentiment stabilised, with companies expressing greater optimism about the months ahead despite continued dissatisfaction with order books and weaker current performance, ifo said on its website. In the trade sector, conditions improved as traders reported better business and a less pessimistic outlook. Wholesale trade led the recovery, though retail sentiment dipped slightly. The overall ifo business climate balance improved to -6.7 from -8.7 in May, marking the best reading since mid-2024. Manufacturing sentiment held at -13.7, steadying after a long decline, while the trade sector rose to -19.2 from -20.3. Though still below pre-2024 levels, the data points to a cautiously improving economic outlook in Germany. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)

East German leader demands more federal aid as data shows some uptick
East German leader demands more federal aid as data shows some uptick

Yahoo

time18-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

East German leader demands more federal aid as data shows some uptick

The state premier of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has called on the new government of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to take decisive action to kick start the sluggish economy. "No economic growth for the third year in a row – that's not acceptable," said Manuela Schwesig, of the centre-left Social Democrats, at the opening of the annual East German Economic Forum, this time in the town of Bad Saarow. But an economic report presented at the forum showed some positive signs for the east German economy. Eastern Germany has made notable gains in economic performance, research and quality of life, but still trails structurally behind the west, according to a study by the ifo Institute in Dresden for the Central German Foundation for Science and Education. The study compared the economic, social and scientific development of east and west Germany based on around 170 indicators. It also highlighted differences within eastern Germany itself, showing that the region is not a homogeneous economic area but is characterized by regional strengths. Schwesig identified lower energy prices, increased investment and reduced bureaucracy as key priorities, emphasizing that getting Europe's biggest economy back on track should the top political goal. In addition to permanently offering affordable energy for both businesses and consumers, she urged the federal government to introduce "fair grid fees that reward regions investing in renewable energy rather than penalising them." Regional economic differences The ifo report showed some regional strengths in east Germany, though Schwesig's Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a comparatively poor region, was not highlighted. For example, Saxony's export rate of 32% exceeds the west German average, while Thuringia's industrial share matches that of Bavaria. Berlin and Saxony also stand out in research spending, ranking among the top regions in Europe. Overall, eastern Germany's economic performance, measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per hour worked, stands at 86% of the west German average. Between 2019 and 2024, annual economic growth in the east outpaced the west by 0.3%, largely attributed to Berlin's economic boom. Lower immigration but higher real wages The monitor also highlights challenges: the proportion of foreign residents in the east is significantly lower at 7.2% compared to 15.6% in the west. However, real wages in the east exceed 90% of the west's level, thanks to lower living costs. The report was presented at the forum by the "Saarower Kreis," a group of east German economic stakeholders aiming to provide fact-based impulses for structural policy. "Eastern Germany is not a homogeneous weak zone but a laboratory for the future," spokesman Frank Nehring stated. He added that the region needs more confidence in its strengths and the courage to think innovatively in economic policy. At the three-day conference, business leaders are to discuss the challenges facing eastern Germany as a business location with members of Merz's new conservative-led coalition government. Companies have long complained about high energy costs, a shortage of skilled workers, heavy tax and social security burdens and excessive bureaucracy.

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