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How gold has become the lifeblood of Sudan's war economy
How gold has become the lifeblood of Sudan's war economy

Arab News

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Arab News

How gold has become the lifeblood of Sudan's war economy

As the civil war in Sudan rages on, the devastation is increasingly measured in troy ounces and metric tonnes. Before the conflict began, the country officially produced 87 tonnes of gold annually, a figure that plummeted to just 2 tonnes within five months of fighting. Yet this collapse masks a more sinister reality; an estimated 100 kg of gold now vanishes each day across Sudan's borders — approximately 60 tonnes since April 2023. This illicit flow is not incidental leakage, it is the engineered financial architecture of a seemingly unstoppable war machine. Consider the mechanics of this deadly economy. Miners, often working in perilous conditions under the coercive control of armed groups, extract the ore. Each gram that is extracted, from artisanal pits in Darfur or industrial concessions along the Nile, converts directly into imported artillery, foreign drones, and militia salaries. Control over mining sites, particularly those concentrated in specific geographical zones, is fiercely contested, as vital as possession of any strategic city. The Sudanese Armed Forces, which holds key production areas, imposes taxes and levies, funneling the proceeds through state-adjacent structures. Its rival, the Rapid Support Forces, operates extensive parallel networks, utilizing cross-border connections to move and monetize its share. A significant portion of the gold moves through neighboring countries, often under murky arrangements involving state actors, or at least tolerated by them. The final destinations are international markets, via a major global hub that acts as a financial clearinghouse for both sides. There, the conflict gold is refined, legitimized and sold, its origins obscured. The proceeds are then cycled back, often through complex financial channels or purchases of essential war materiel. Weapons, fuel, and even food supplies for fighters are procured abroad using these funds, shipped back across borders, sometimes through the same neighboring countries, and distributed to the front lines. This transnational flow transforms Sudanese gold into tangible instruments of death and displacement within Sudan itself. With official exports from SAF-controlled territories generating $1.6 billion in 2024 alone, and more than 60 percent of production from key mining states being smuggled, gold becomes the grease for a devastating conflict 'economy' that has displaced nearly 9 million people. Moreover, the commodity's path through free-trade zones of neighboring countries and foreign refineries demonstrates the ways in which regional commercial policies actively incentivize predation. Duty exemptions and tax reductions in neighboring countries have transformed cross-border smuggling from an ancillary activity into the core revenue strategy for both of the primary belligerents in the conflict, locking the nation into a self-perpetuating cycle in which mineral wealth finances state collapse. The mineral wealth that could rebuild the nation remains its curse, fueling a conflict measured in graves rather than grams. Hafed Al-Ghwell The profound tragedy lies in the complicity and enabling environment created by influential external actors. Key regional powers, driven by short-term economic gain and competing strategic agendas, have become indispensable patrons. One state, acting as the indispensable partner of the Sudanese Armed Forces, processes vast flows of illicit gold through its territory. Reports indicate 80-90 percent of Sudanese gold bypasses official channels, draining state revenues while financing the Sudanese Armed Forces' $1 million daily war expenditure. This smuggling pipeline, enabled by lax oversight and political complicity, directly subverts Sudanese sovereignty. Simultaneously, a second external actor functions as the financial engine for the Rapid Support Forces. By providing market access and liquidity, this patron transforms the Rapid Support Forces-controlled gold into immediate capital. Its gold refineries absorbed more than 46 tonnes of Sudanese gold in 2023 alone, worth about $2.8 billion at current prices, embedding conflict commodities into global markets. This is not passive trade, it is active conflict financing. The Rapid Support Forces' territorial losses from last year would have triggered financial collapse without this uninterrupted cash conversion. These dual pipelines create a perverse equilibrium. Gold generates more than $1 billion annually for the warring parties, ensuring military spending consumes resources needed for the 25 million Sudanese people requiring aid. While the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces deploy gold revenues to import drones, ammunition, and fuel, Sudan's healthcare system has collapsed to about 70 percent nonfunctionality, while civilian deaths mount, as a direct consequence of economically sustainable warfare. International responses and sanctions remain fundamentally inert against Sudan's conflict-gold architecture. The targeting of isolated entities, such as seven firms blocked by the US Treasury in June 2024, ignores the complex transnational system that is sustaining the war. This system operates through three integrated channels: smuggling corridors across Chad and Libya; sophisticated financial clearinghouses; and state-facilitated transit routes through neighboring countries, where 80-90 percent of the gold bypasses official scrutiny. In a nutshell, sanctions against individual commanders or shell companies constitute little more than policy theater. The resilience of the gold trade lies in its networked adaptability; routes shift within weeks, front companies regenerate, and regional banking systems enable instant gold-to-cash conversion. When the US sanctioned the Sudanese Armed Forces-linked firms in 2024, the Rapid Support Forces-aligned networks simply rerouted exports through South Sudan and the Central African Republic, demonstrating the immunity of the ecosystem to atomized pressure. Until policymakers dismantle the entire architecture — by demanding that regional trading hubs close beneficial ownership gaps in gold exchanges and sanctioning the refiners laundering conflict minerals — the war will continue. The language of strategic patience and alliance maintenance rings hollow when juxtaposed against the entrenched, billion-dollar illicit gold ecosystem sustaining Sudan's civil war, which is responsible for creating the massive humanitarian crisis we see today. More than simply a missed opportunity, this is an active choice, one that permits blood-soaked commerce to flourish in exchange for diplomatic comfort and regional ambiguity. To date, financial institutions and refineries downstream have barely flinched. There has been no sweeping divestment, no collapse in buyer confidence, no multilateral embargoes. Regulatory institutions have failed not because of lack of capacity but because of an unwillingness to act, constrained by politics not logistics. The international community must now confront the full supply chain — from the mines controlled by armed groups, through the smuggling routes across borders, to the foreign markets and financiers that launder its proceeds and facilitate the conversion into weapons — and impose coordinated, high-impact costs on all nodes, especially the external actors profiting from the chaos. Otherwise, Sudan's gold will continue to flow and the war will continue to burn. The mineral wealth that could rebuild the nation remains its curse, fueling a conflict measured in graves rather than grams. • Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. X: @HafedAlGhwell

Sars warns on fuel contamination scams that cost fiscus R3.6bn a year
Sars warns on fuel contamination scams that cost fiscus R3.6bn a year

The Herald

time04-07-2025

  • The Herald

Sars warns on fuel contamination scams that cost fiscus R3.6bn a year

The SA Revenue Service (Sars) has issued a strong warning about the growing threat of fuel adulteration and illicit trade in the country, revealing that the fiscus loses about R3.6bn a year from these illegal activities. According to Sars, some diesel samples analysed during recent investigations were found to contain up to 68% paraffin, highlighting the severity of fuel tampering. A joint-intelligence team comprising Sars and police officials has so far identified 23 targets across Gauteng, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal as part of a crackdown on the illicit fuel economy. This operation led to the discovery of 953,515 litres of contaminated diesel and six fuel depots that were operating in contravention of section 37 of the Customs and Excise Act 91 of 1964 as amended. Sars revealed that assets and contaminated fuel worth R367m were seized, leading to further investigations and possible criminal and civil liabilities. 'Two so-called fuel 'washrooms' were uncovered — one of which is a rare mobile washroom fitted on to a transport truck. These were used to remove paraffin markers,' Sars said. In addition, 12 fuel-transport trucks were flagged for suspected false declarations, whereby tankers claiming to import an average of 15,000 litres of fuel were found to be carrying significantly more. So far, 13 criminal cases have been registered with the police, supported by Sars trade investigators for customs and excise contraventions and fraud. In the past four months, the National Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure (NATJOINTS) has conducted multiple interventions to combat the illegal trade. Sars said the Maputo Corridor linking South Africa, Eswatini and Mozambique has over the past decade become a hotbed for fuel smuggling and adulteration driven by organised criminal networks. 'Some importers declare fuel volumes of 40,000 litres or less, whereas investigations reveal that up to 60,000 litres are actually being brought into the country,' said Sars. The agency warned that illegal mixing of diesel with paraffin has become a national trend, often carried out by fuel storage and distribution depots. Fuel adulteration refers to the practice of mixing petroleum products, particularly diesel, with cheaper substances such as paraffin or even water. This is done to inflate the volume of fuel sold, enabling illicit profits at the expense of quality and safety. Adulterated fuel can severely damage engines and machinery, leading to increased maintenance costs and shorter vehicle lifespans. This comes as South Africans were hit with steep fuel price hikes on Wednesday. Diesel 0.05% increased by 82c/litre Diesel 0.005% increased by 84c/litre Illuminating paraffin went up by 67c/litre. Sars stressed that this activity is part of a broader illicit economy that poses a serious risk to the country. 'The illicit economy is a global phenomenon that threatens South Africa's society, economy and national security. Tax evasion, smuggling, illegal transactions, illicit manufacturing and fraud undermine the rule of law, erode public trust, distort markets, deprive governments of revenue, and enable corruption and organised crime,' said Sars. The agency called for a whole-of-government approach involving public entities, the private sector, civil society and international partners to effectively dismantle these networks. Sars commissioner Edward Kieswetter praised the joint efforts of enforcement agencies. 'These syndicates can only underestimate our resolve to eradicate this criminality at their peril. These acts threaten the very foundation of our society. Our message is clear: we will spare no efforts to crush them,' said Kieswetter. TimesLIVE

Qatar National Library leads regional efforts to combat illicit trafficking of cultural property
Qatar National Library leads regional efforts to combat illicit trafficking of cultural property

Zawya

time30-06-2025

  • Politics
  • Zawya

Qatar National Library leads regional efforts to combat illicit trafficking of cultural property

A Rabat conference and workshop with ICESCO, Qatar's General Authority of Customs and Morocco's Administration of Customs & Indirect Taxes focus on protecting cultural property. Doha, Qatar: As part of its ongoing commitment to preserving heritage, Qatar National Library (QNL), the International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions (IFLA)'s Regional Preservation and Conservation Centre for the Arab region, continues to champion efforts to prevent the illicit trade of cultural property across the region. In collaboration with the Islamic World Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (ICESCO), Qatar's General Authority of Customs, and Morocco's Administration of Customs and Indirect Taxes, Qatar National Library (QNL) is co-organizing the International Conference and High-Level Regional Workshop on the Role of Customs Authorities in Combating the Illicit Trafficking of Cultural Property. The event, which began on 30 June and will continue until 5 July, is being held at ICESCO Headquarters in Rabat, Morocco. The initiative consists of an international conference on the opening day, followed by a comprehensive five-day regional workshop that brings together customs officials, cultural heritage professionals, and law enforcement representatives from across the region, focusing on enhancing customs officers' capacity to identify and safeguard cultural property, apply international legal frameworks, and collaborate effectively with cultural and enforcement institutions. The opening ceremony featured remarks from distinguished officials including His Excellency Mr. Abdellatif Ouahbi, Minister of Justice, Kingdom of Morocco; His Excellency Mr. Mohamed Mehdi Bensaid, Minister of Youth, Culture and Communication, Kingdom of Morocco; Ms. Tan Huism, Executive Director of Qatar National Library; and His Excellency Dr. Salem bin Mohammed Al-Malik, Director-General of ICESCO, Mr. Talal Abdullah Al Shaibi, Assistant Chairman for Customs Affairs at Qatar's General Authority of Customs, along with senior officials Morocco's Administration of Customs and Indirect Taxes. Ms. Tan discussed the gravity of the increased threats to cultural heritage, and the importance of customs authorities in combating illicit trafficking, but also the role of the media and society. She discussed the efforts that Qatar National Library has made in this area, and the importance of working in partnership. She continued: "Cultural items are expressions of who we are as a society. They hold our collective memory, reflect our identity, and offer insight into our values and beliefs. By working hand in hand with regional and international partners, we remain committed to preventing the trafficking of cultural property and ensuring they are preserved for future generations," she said. Mr. Talal Al Shaibi, Assistant Chairman for Customs Affairs at Qatar's General Authority of Customs, emphasized the importance of collaboration with organizations like QNL and ICESCO in strengthening the ability of customs authorities to protect cultural heritage across borders. "Customs authorities are often the first line of defence against the illegal movement of cultural assets. Thus, they play a crucial and leading role in combatting the illicit trade," he said. Dr. Al Malik noted that the workshop represents a key milestone in building bridges between cultural institutions and customs authorities throughout the Islamic world, reinforcing ICESCO's mission to advance cultural heritage protection. The event marked a significant step forward in strengthening regional cooperation to combat crimes against cultural property and further solidified QNL's leadership in heritage preservation. QNL's efforts are aligned with Qatar's broader vision to safeguard cultural identity. As IFLA's Regional Preservation and Conservation Centre for the region, QNL plays a pivotal role in fostering regional collaboration, providing training and support for the protection of heritage. About Qatar National Library Qatar National Library acts as a steward of Qatar's national heritage by collecting, preserving, and making available the country's recorded history. The Library provides equal access to all types of information and services and aims to enable the people of Qatar to positively influence society by creating an exceptional learning and discovery environment. His Highness Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Amir of Qatar, officially inaugurated Qatar National Library on 16 April 2018. The Library was granted the status of national library under the Amiri Decree No.11 of 20 March 2018.

Illicit Cigarettes in European Union at Highest Level Since 2015, KPMG Study Shows
Illicit Cigarettes in European Union at Highest Level Since 2015, KPMG Study Shows

National Post

time11-06-2025

  • Business
  • National Post

Illicit Cigarettes in European Union at Highest Level Since 2015, KPMG Study Shows

Article content Smokers in the European Union (EU) consumed 38.9 billion illicit cigarettes in 2024, a 10.8% increase versus 2023, with serious repercussions for tax revenues, crime rates, and public health. France, the largest illicit market in Europe, reached 18.7 billion illicit cigarettes consumed last year, 37.6% of total consumption. Adding 10.2 ppt year-on-year, the Netherlands saw the largest increase in illicit cigarettes share, which doubled to 17.9% of total consumption. Countries such as Bulgaria, Greece, Italy and Portugal—and Ukraine, outside the EU—have shown sizeable decreases in illicit consumption in 2024. Greece and Ukraine, in particular, saw as much as 30% declines vs. 2023. PMI calls for evidence-based regulation, predictable fiscal regimes, and strict law enforcement to address the roots of illicit trade while promoting economic stability and public health. Evidence shows that excessive tobacco control policies may be driving smokers to the black market. Article content STAMFORD, Conn. — Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) today issues an urgent call for effective policymaking to counter the growing threat of illicit trade in the EU. In 2024, 38.9 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in the region—the highest level since 2015—accounting for 9.2% of total cigarette consumption, with governments losing as much as €14.9 billion in tax revenues at a time when many countries face intense economic pressures. Article content PMI believes that exacerbating the issue are steep and abrupt tax increases, benefitting criminals who supply unregulated, untaxed and inferior products, including counterfeits, at a lower price. To combat this growing threat, PMI urges the adoption of evidence-based regulation with balanced and predictable taxation through tax calendars, continued public-private collaboration and enhanced support of regional and national law enforcement agencies, as criminal organizations dealing in illicit cigarettes have cemented their presence in higher-priced Western European countries. Article content According to the 2024 KPMG study, commissioned by Philip Morris Products SA, a large number of counterfeit cigarettes were consumed in the EU in 2024: 15.3 billion, a 20.2% increase vs. 2023. Additionally, so-called 'illicit whites'—legally manufactured cigarettes smuggled across borders to countries where they have limited or no distribution—reached 8.2 billion. Article content 'The illicit tobacco trade threatens the European economy, public health, security and social stability; today, higher-taxed and higher-priced markets such as France and the Netherlands are especially impacted by illegally imported and counterfeit goods,' said Christos Harpantidis, PMI's Senior Vice President, External Affairs. 'Its massive socioeconomic impact negatively affects tax collection, job creation, and legitimate businesses, the engine of our European economies. The availability of cheap, unregulated cigarettes in the underground economy also impairs efforts to reduce smoking rates and achieve a smoke-free future.' Article content The 2024 KPMG report indicates the increase in illicit cigarette consumption was primarily driven by France and the Netherlands. The study points to an especially alarming situation in France, where 18.7 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in 2024, almost 7.8 billion of which were counterfeits. In the Netherlands, illicit cigarette volumes increased drastically, by 1.1 billion—more than doubled in a year—reaching 17.9% of total consumption. Had these cigarettes been legally purchased, an additional €9.4 billion would have been raised in taxes in France and almost €900 million in the Netherlands. Article content In contrast, countries such as Bulgaria, Greece, Italy and Portugal—and Ukraine, outside the EU—have made significant progress in curbing the illicit tobacco market. Greece, for instance, had a 6.2 ppt drop in illicit cigarette consumption in 2024, to 17.5%—the largest decrease the country has seen in a decade. Article content 'Predictable tax regimes and robust support for local law enforcement actions have proven an effective policy recipe: We now know how to effectively counter the criminal entities that engage in the illicit manufacturing, distribution, and sale of consumer products. Other countries in the region should emulate that approach to get control over this dangerous trend,' said Massimo Andolina, PMI's President, Europe Region. 'This is the way forward if we are serious about defeating the illicit tobacco trade in our continent, which harms Europe's economies, undermines European competitiveness and growth, and opens the door to other criminal activities. Citizens cannot afford to be deprived of much-needed state revenues in this critical moment for Europe, which are being lost rather than applied to key issues such as defense, internal security, and social programs.' Article content Illicit trade affects the whole of Europe Article content Across the 38 European countries included in KPMG's study (the 27 EU member states, as well as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom), 52.2 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in 2024, accounting for 10.0% of total consumption. Tax revenue losses amounted to an estimated €19.4 billion. Article content Illicit cigarette volumes in the U.K. decreased by almost 0.8 billion in 2024, though illicit cigarettes as a share of total consumption remained stable. The U.K. is still the third-largest illicit market in Europe, with 5.9 billion illicit cigarettes consumed last year. Ukraine, in contrast, saw the largest decline in illicit consumption, with contraband and counterfeit volumes decreasing by 2.4 billion or 29% (vs. a 1.1 billion or 14% increase in 2023). Article content This is the 19th consecutive year that KPMG has measured and reported on illicit cigarette consumption across Europe. Article content Heated tobacco products Article content For the first time, the KPMG study included in its scope the illicit consumption of heated tobacco products in selected European countries: the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Article content The study reveals that contraband consumption stood at 0.4 billion sticks (the consumables used in heated tobacco devices) in 2024, representing 0.9% of total consumption. The highest contraband volumes were found in Germany (0.15 billion sticks) and Poland (0.08 billion), with the U.K. having the highest share (7.8%). To date, no counterfeit flows have been identified. Article content 'Policymakers must recognize that repeating the policy mistakes that drive the illicit cigarette market when regulating smoke-free products—excessive and market-distorting taxation, extreme control measures such as bans, and inadequate law enforcement against illicit activities across the value chain—may and will lead to the same disaster we see today in the cigarette sector in countries adopting such policies, and that we are starting to see in countries banning the legal sale of smoke-free products,' said Andolina. — Article content Illicit trade does not just affect the people who consume these products. It fuels ruthless criminal gangs, typically impacting the most vulnerable communities and populations. It deprives governments of critical revenues needed to fund public services, including security, defense and social services. And its proceeds facilitate other serious crimes such as human trafficking, corruption, and money laundering. Article content For PMI, eliminating the illicit tobacco and nicotine trade has been a long-standing priority. The company implements preventive and protective measures and works with the public and private sectors to advance efforts to address this global issue. Article content As PMI progresses on its commitment to deliver a smoke-free future—a future without cigarettes, by far the most harmful way to consume nicotine—it is increasing efforts to secure its supply chain and the products it sells and to protect consumers and its brands from smugglers and counterfeiters. PMI works closely with law enforcement agencies and other organizations worldwide to root out and shut down illegal activities, including counterfeiting and smuggling. Article content A detailed overview of the results, country profiles and methodology of the KPMG study is available here. Article content Counterfeit: 'Cigarettes that are illegally manufactured and sold by a party other than the original trademark owner.' Illicit whites: 'Cigarettes that are usually manufactured legally in one country/market but which the evidence suggests have been smuggled across-borders during their transit to the destination market under review where they have limited or no legal distribution and are sold without payment of tax.' C&C: 'Counterfeit and contraband, including illicit whites. Contraband refers to genuine products that have been either bought in a lower-tax country and which exceed legal border limits or acquired without taxes for export purposes to be illegally re-sold (for financial profit) in a higher priced market.' Other C&C: 'Other C&C comprises contraband which does not fall within the Illicit Whites definition. It is often Duty Paid product from both EU27 and non-EU27 countries. There may also be counterfeit of brands that are not trademark-owned by participant manufacturers.' Article content Philip Morris International: A Global Smoke-Free Champion Article content Philip Morris International is a leading international consumer goods company, actively delivering a smoke-free future and evolving its portfolio for the long term to include products outside of the tobacco and nicotine sector. The company's current product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, nicotine pouch, and e-vapor products. As of December 31, 2024, PMI's smoke-free products were available for sale in 95 markets, and PMI estimates they were used by 38.6 million adults around the world. The smoke-free business accounted for 42% of PMI's first-quarter 2025 total net revenues. Since 2008, PMI has invested over $14 billion to develop, scientifically substantiate, and commercialize innovative smoke-free products for adults who would otherwise continue to smoke, with the goal of completely ending the sale of cigarettes. This includes the building of world-class scientific assessment capabilities, notably in the areas of pre-clinical systems toxicology, clinical and behavioral research, as well as post-market studies. Following a robust science-based review, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized the marketing of Swedish Match's General snus and ZYN nicotine pouches and versions of PMI's IQOS devices and consumables – the first-ever such authorizations in their respective categories. Versions of IQOS devices and consumables and General snus also obtained the first-ever Modified Risk Tobacco Product authorizations from the FDA. With a strong foundation and significant expertise in life sciences, PMI has a long-term ambition to expand into wellness and healthcare areas and aims to enhance life through the delivery of seamless health experiences. References to 'PMI', 'we', 'our', and 'us' mean Philip Morris International Inc., and its subsidiaries. For more information, please visit and . Article content

Experts back NSW Premier Chris Minns' plea for cigarette tax cut despite opposition
Experts back NSW Premier Chris Minns' plea for cigarette tax cut despite opposition

News.com.au

time07-06-2025

  • Business
  • News.com.au

Experts back NSW Premier Chris Minns' plea for cigarette tax cut despite opposition

NSW Premier Chris Minns says law-abiding citizens are being 'dragged into the black market' by the federal government's tobacco tax – and he wants that to change. Mr Minns threw down the gauntlet this week when he called for a re-evaluation of the tobacco excise, kicking-off political rows in both Sydney and Canberra. Twice yearly, the federal government sets the excise for tobacco products but in this year's budget recorded a $5.2bn decline in revenue since 2022-23. The NSW Premier has pointed the finger at illicit sales at tobacconists, some 5000 of which have opened up across NSW over the past few years. 'There's a whole bunch of law-abiding people who wouldn't break the law in a million years,' Mr Minns said. 'But, they're being dragged into a black market where they go to the store and they can either buy a $17 packet of illegal cigarettes or a $60 packet of cigarettes. 'It's a no-brainer.' Despite pushback, Mr Minns said every tax change started with 'an idea from someone who calls out a policy that's no longer fit for purpose'. 'So, let's get the ball rolling here because these illegal tobacco stores are pushing out hot bread shops, small businesses and restaurants. 'Because the sales from illegal tobacco are so lucrative, they can just pay the rent at a higher price. 'Something's gone amiss here and we need to have a crack at fixing it alongside our federal colleagues.' Mr Minns earlier signalled that police resources may have to be moved from domestic violence and organised crime to combat illicit tobacco. Mr Minns said the situation was 'intolerable', with 'every to-let shop in every high street in Sydney taken over by a tobacconist'. 'The biggest supporters of a massive excise on tobacco sales in NSW are probably organised criminals,' he said. 'It's a giant black market and major display on every street in every suburb in NSW.' No easy answers On Wednesday, federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers ruled out any change to the excise, saying making cigarettes cheaper wouldn't solve the issue of the booming illegal tobacco trade. In NSW, there are about 19,500 tobacco stores across the state – up from 14,500 a few years earlier – that are overseen by only about 30 health inspectors. A parliamentary inquiry into illicit tobacco sales, pushed for by the NSW opposition, will later this year examine which agency is best suited to the task. Until now, Liberal leader Mark Speakman has remained mum on whether NSW Police should takeover illicit tobacco enforcement from NSW Health. On Thursday, Mr Speakman said illicit tobacco had exploded under Mr Minns and organised criminal gangs were 'raking in big money'. 'They know NSW has minimal enforcement and some of the weakest penalties in the country,' Mr Speakman said. 'While other states have acted to drastically increase penalties and improve enforcement, Chris Minns has been missing in action. 'Now that the federal Treasurer has ruled out changes to the federal excise, Chris Minns needs to tell people how he is going to tackle this issue.' Under law, an individual found to be selling a prohibited tobacco product faces a maximum fine of $55,000 for a first offence. Those laws will change on July 1 when a new tobacco licensing scheme is introduced, requiring businesses to obtain a tobacco retailing licence. Businesses found to be selling tobacco products without a licence will face fines of up to $220,000 and $44,000 for an individual. Nonetheless, the issue sparked a fierce debate in NSW parliament on Wednesday between Mr Speakman and Police Minister Yasmin Catley. Asked about whether anti-gang Taskforce Falcon will expand its remit to illicit tobacco, Ms Catley struck out. 'The leader of the opposition knows that it is Health that enforce illicit tobacco. He knows that,' she said. 'And, he has come in here and has the audacity to come in here and say the police are not doing their job. Well, shame on you. Shame on you. 'NSW Police are doing absolutely everything they can and I am disgusted that the leader of the opposition could come to the NSW parliament and suggest otherwise.' For his part, NSW Health Minister Ryan Park has pointed the finger at the former Coalition government for not earlier introducing a licensing scheme. What do the experts say? Over the past six years, the duty price put on a 20-pack of cigarettes has gone up by about 75 per cent – from $16 to $28. As a result, the price of a packet at the counter sits about $40-50, with the cheapest little more than $30. Illicit cigarettes, meanwhile, cost about $13-15 per 20-pack and up to $20 for premium brands. University of Sydney School of Public Health researcher Edward Jegasothy supported Mr Minns' comments on the tobacco excise. He said there was no solution to the prevalence of illicit tobacco without a re-examination of the 'punitive' policy. 'There's really no ethical basis for the policy because it's essentially just a punitive policy attack on the poor,' he said. Mr Jegasothy said the policy had failed to demonstrate any 'meaningful health benefits and certainly no equitable health benefits'. 'I can't see a solution that doesn't have involve bringing down the tax,' he said. 'It has to be part of the solution … because it is essentially putting more holes in the bottom of the boat.' Mr Jegasothy said the belief that the excise, in increasing the cost of cigarettes, would reduce rates of smoking 'didn't hold water'. With rates of smoking higher among poor and marginalised groups, he instead encouraged solutions that addressed the root causes, 'which is largely poverty'. He urged for a review of the excise as a public health policy, including up until the explosion of black market sales in the early 2020s. That explosion, Mr Jegasothy suggested, came as a result of a combination of factors, including the cumulative impact of the excise and a tightening on loose leaf tobacco. The Australian Association of Convenience Stores has also backed Mr Minns' call for a rethink of the tobacco excise. Chief executive Theo Foukkare said it was 'extraordinary that it's gotten to this point'. 'Tobacco is a price-sensitive consumer product,' he said. 'If you put a price on it that is manifestly higher than what people can afford, they'll find a cheaper alternative and that's where this incredibly dangerous black market is cashing in – and even worse, they're using that money to fund the most atrocious crimes.' What about other states? NSW is far from the only state or territory in Australia where the issue of illicit tobacco has become a hot-button topic in recent years. In Victoria, police have continuingly battled the so-called tobacco wars, conflict between organised crime groups during which stores have been burned. According to Victoria Police, there were about 1300 stand-alone tobacco stores in the state – of these, 1000 sell some kind of illicit tobacco. From July 1, business caught possessing or selling an illicit tobacco product in Victoria face fines of up to $1.7m. For an individual, that penalty is about $830,000 or 15 years in prison. Further north, Queensland Health seized more than 15.2 million illicit cigarettes worth $12.2m across the state between July 1, 2024 and February 28, 2025. Mr Jegasothy said outside of NSW and Victoria, there was little publicly available information about the prevalence of illicit tobacco.

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