Latest news with #inflação
Reuters
30-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Brazilian economists expect central bank to cut rates in early 2026 despite hawkish signals
BRASILIA, June 30 (Reuters) - Brazilian private economists still expect the central bank to start cutting interest rates next January, even after policymakers reinforced guidance that borrowing costs will remain steady for a "very prolonged" period to anchor inflation to target, according to a survey released on Monday. The central bank's weekly survey shows economists project the benchmark Selic rate to be held at 15% through December, before falling to 14.75% in January. Policymakers earlier this month raised the Selic rate by 25 basis points to its current level, bringing the total amount of tightening to 450 basis points since September, and signalled a pause at the next meeting in late July. Following the hike, the median forecast in the survey shifted to a 25-basis-point cut in January, with the Selic rate projected to end 2026 at 12.50%. That outlook remained unchanged on Monday. Diogo Guillen, the central bank's economic policy director, emphasized on Friday that policymakers view any rate-cut debate as premature. The latest survey also showed that the expected inflation rate for 2025 was cut for a fifth straight week to 5.20%, but projections for subsequent years remain unchanged above the 3% official target, which has a 1.5-point tolerance range either side. In recent speeches, central bank Governor Gabriel Galipolo and Guillen reiterated policymakers' commitment to bringing inflation to the 3% target over the "relevant horizon" - the 18-month period influenced by current policy decisions. Policymakers have flagged a rate pause despite projecting inflation to be 3.6% over that horizon. That forecast was based on market expectations that the Selic rate would be held steady at 14.75% until January 2026 - a more dovish path than has materialized. Galipolo and Guillen added that inflation is still expected to converge to the central bank's target under alternative, undisclosed rate paths.
Reuters
27-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Brazil central bank sees rate cut debate as premature, says official
June 27 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank is not currently discussing potential interest rate cuts, director Diogo Guillen said on Friday, reaffirming that policymakers remain focused on bringing inflation back to target over the relevant horizon. "That seems like a very distant debate," he said at an event hosted by Barclays in Sao Paulo, adding it would be "far too premature" to talk about what might lead the bank to ease borrowing costs. Earlier this month, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 15%, a near two-decade high, and signaled it expects to hold it steady for a "very prolonged" period. Guillen said the pause was announced to assess whether the cumulative 450-basis-point increase since September had been enough. "As the cycle evolves, you reach a more contractionary interest rate level, which also allows more time to observe the lagged effects (of monetary policy)," he added. Guillen also emphasized that the central bank is targeting the midpoint of the inflation goal, set at 3%, and aims to reach it within the relevant monetary policy horizon, which currently extends to the fourth quarter of 2026. Brazil's economy has "undoubtedly" shown resilience, but there are signs of a slowdown in growth, he added. Guillen said that the debate over the reasons behind recent economic strength involves several hypotheses involving stronger consumption, credit expansion, labor market dynamics and the effects of social benefits.
Reuters
26-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Brazil central bank stands by inflation target despite forecast gap
BRASILIA, June 26 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank remains "absolutely" committed to pursuing its 3% inflation target, its governor said on Thursday, despite the bank having signaled it will hold rates even as projections show inflation staying above the goal through 2027. Speaking at a press conference, Gabriel Galipolo said the central bank's projections take into account the expected interest rate path reflected in the median estimates from private economists in the Focus survey its conducts weekly. However, he emphasized that this path does not necessarily represent the rate trajectory the bank will follow. "There are several paths to reach the center of the target," he said. "We are absolutely committed to it." Last week the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 15%, a near two-decade high, and signaled a "very prolonged pause" in its efforts to tame consumer prices. In their policy statement, policymakers had also emphasized they would not hesitate to resume rate hikes if needed. Galipolo said on Thursday the monetary authority would assess a broad set of indicators, rather than any single metric, when evaluating whether to opt for a new rate increase. Earlier in the day, the central bank's quarterly monetary policy report projected annual inflation at 3.2% by the end of 2027, still above the 3% target, which has a tolerance band of 1.5 percentage points in either direction. For the fourth quarter of 2026, the relevant horizon for current policy decisions, annual inflation is seen at 3.6%. In the same press conference, economic policy director Diego Guillen stressed that the central bank was not extending the horizon to meet its inflation target. Galipolo also said that this week's foreign-exchange interventions were aimed at addressing a specific issue related to coupons, and did not signal any change in the bank's currency policy.
Reuters
18-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Brazil central bank raises rates by 25 bps in seventh straight hike
BRASILIA, June 18 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, delivering a seventh consecutive hike that defied bets it would hold rates steady, as unanchored inflation expectations and a resilient economy kept policymakers on alert. The bank's rate-setting committee, Copom, unanimously decided to lift the benchmark Selic rate to 15%, the highest since July 2006. A majority of 27 out of 39 economists polled by Reuters had expected the bank to hold rates steady at 14.75%.
Bloomberg
30-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Mozambique Extends Record Rate-Cutting Streak as Inflation Cools
Mozambique's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate for a record 9th consecutive time, with inflation set to remain in the single digits. The Banco de Moçambique cut the rate — known by its Portuguese acronym of Mimo — to 11% from 11.75%, Governor Rogerio Zandamela said.
