Latest news with #joblessclaims
Bloomberg
16 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Stocks Are Defying the Naysayers. They Can Keep Going.
The S&P 500 Index just rallied back to all-time highs, brushing off the April tariff shock, the conflict with Iran and the insidious and persistent increase in US continuing jobless claims. A growing chorus of bears thinks traders are whistling past the graveyard, and they're far from crazy to think so. But then again, index highs almost always feel like this. Consider August 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic was still in full swing. The government data had put unemployment at over 10%, and yet blended forward price-earnings ratios were in the 99th percentile of the previous two decades. There was some general optimism about the prospects for a vaccine, but clinical trials were still ongoing and a summer surge of Sun Belt cases had dashed hopes for a quick resolution to the pandemic disruptions. Meanwhile, a popular narrative posited that 'dumb money' retail traders were driving the stock rally. How did that turn out? Even after the Aug. 18 high, the index returned another 11.5% in 2020 and 28.7% in 2021. Not too shabby.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
What the rise in continuing jobless claims means for the Fed
Continuing jobless claims are climbing, as laid-off workers struggle to land new jobs. Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer joins Morning Brief to explain what the latest labor data could mean for the Federal Reserve. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. We got a fresh read on the labor market out this morning with jobless claims. Josh Schafer, how were the numbers for last week? Hey, Brad. So, jobless claims ticked down last week, right? To about 235,000. But what we're going to take a look at here, that was weekly jobless claims. Those come out every week. Those are new filings, right? But we're taking a closer look at is continuing unemployment claims. So, this is actually from the week prior. This would be the week ending June 14th, and you can see the big tick up at the end of that 2025 mark, right? We're starting to move higher here. And so what this is telling us about the economy right now with nearly 2 million people filing for weekly continuing unemployment claims is it is currently harder for new, it's taking longer for unemployed workers to find new jobs. So this is part of that low higher, low fire labor market we've been talking about for a while, but it's starting to build up a little bit to a point where economists are starting to get a little bit worried about if this number were to keep moving higher, if that initial weekly number keeps moving higher, so more people are getting laid off and you put more people in this basket that continue to not be able to find jobs because the hiring rate is near decade low, that would be one more sign of the slowing that we're seeing in the labor market. You spin that forward to what that means for the Fed, Brad. This is one of the charts when people are talking about the Fed should maybe be cutting sooner rather than later, continuing unemployment claims is one thing that economists are using to start to argue that point. All right. Continuing to watch the data here, Josh. Appreciate the breakdown this morning. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Jobless claims hit 2021 high & Q1 GDP revised lower
Jobless claims rose, and first quarter GDP was revised lower to a 0.5% decline, signaling possible economic weakness. Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer joins Morning Brief to break down fresh economic data, market reaction, and the possibility of President Trump naming a new Fed chair early. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Joining me now, we've got markets reporter Josh Shafer, senior reporter Ali Kanal live from the Nasdaq and senior healthcare reporter Angeli Camlani. Josh, let's start with you. You're taking a closer look at the economic data out this morning. What do we know there? What have we seen? Yeah, Brad, so you mentioned that first quarter GDP number again, that would be economic growth that ended back in March, right? So pretty backward looking at this point. That was revised lower from 0.2% decline to a 0.5% decline for that first quarter GDP. But I was also keeping a close eye on continuing claims this morning. So this is continuing people that file week after week for unemployment benefits. That ticked up to its highest level since November of 2021. So an interesting data point to keep watching there as more Americans continue to sort of struggle to find new jobs once they are out of a job. And so, just a second more on this, especially considering we're hearing more about the Fed and how they're evaluating a lot of the economic data that's come out with some of the questioning that we've heard from Fed chair Powell, really looking at the quality of the data, but also how that's interpreted and who interprets it might be changing, at least at the chair position. What are we hearing about what President Trump is thinking through of who the next Fed chair might be? Yeah, Brad. So it sounds like from that report from the Wall Street Journal that President Trump would be interested in perhaps eliminating, or sorry, nominating a new Fed chair earlier than chair Powell, than chair Powell's nomination or time at as the Fed chair being over. So that would be sort of an interesting move for markets, but I think your your move in futures right now is sort of telling you that maybe the market could look past that, right? We're showing the dollar, that has moved lower. But overall, stocks at this point not really impacted by that. And I would go back to the discussion from really two months ago now when there was discussion of perhaps Trump removing Powell. Strategists sort of argue that the key in that whole discussion is just investors want security in what is happening with the central bank, and knowing the central bank would be there to cut interest rates if something was going on in the economy, raise interest rates if they need to. They just want to know there's a stability factor there. And at least for this morning, these reports don't seem to really be testing that overall thesis for investors. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Economy: Jobless Claims Fall, 1Q GDP Revised to -0.5%
US Jobless claims declined to 236,000 as continuing claims increased to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021. Elsewhere, the US merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May while imports were little changed, and first-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.5% compared to the second reading of -0.2%. Michael McKee reports on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
What are jobless claims, and why do they matter?
Jobless claims reports can signal changes in the U.S. economy that affect your household, wealth, and income potential. Understanding jobless claims data and its implications can help you make better financial decisions. This embedded content is not available in your region. Learn more: How to start investing: A 6-step guide Jobless claims are an economic statistic measuring how many people filed for unemployment benefits. The Department of Labor (DOL) reports jobless claims weekly, usually on Thursdays. The report typically includes weekly initial claims, a four-week moving average for initial claims, the insured unemployment rate, and continued claims. Here's what those terms mean: Weekly initial claims. Initial claims are new unemployment filings received in the prior week from people who were not already receiving benefits. Four-week moving average for initial claims. The weekly initial claims total is watched closely because it can signal changing dynamics in the U.S. labor market. However, this data can be volatile. So, the DOL also provides an average of initial claims over the prior four weeks. The four-week moving average smooths out weekly anomalies for easier trend identification. Insured unemployment rate. The insured unemployment rate is the number of workers claiming unemployment benefits divided by the number of workers covered by unemployment insurance. This value is presented as a percentage. Continued claims. Continued claims are unemployment filings from people who were already receiving benefits. This number is typically much larger and less volatile than initial claims. The DOL adjusts jobless claims data to eliminate predictable seasonal patterns, which can mask underlying trends. The jobless claims report includes adjusted and unadjusted data. Big changes in the number of initial jobless claims can coincide with an evolving job market, which has implications for the broader U.S. economy. Because the initial claims reading is an early sign of changing conditions, it's considered a predictive value, also known as a leading indicator. According to a 2025 analysis from the St. Louis Fed, a threshold number of initial jobless claims predicted a changing labor market. More than 434,165 initial claims can precede deteriorating conditions, while fewer than 434,165 claims point to an improving job market ahead. The analysis also concluded that the threshold is more informative when the economy is improving than when it is declining. In March 2020, weekly initial jobless claims jumped from 273,000 to 2.9 million in one week as the pandemic forced temporary business shutdowns. In the next month, the unemployment rate spiked to 14.8% from 4.4% in March. On the backside of the pandemic, weekly initial jobless claims remained above 300,000 until October 2021. In that month, the unemployment rate was 4.5%. The rate continued to decline until it reached 3.5% in January 2023. A deteriorating job market marked by higher unemployment can prompt other negative outcomes, including: Lower household income Declining consumer sentiment and spending Conservative business outlooks and reduced business spending Lower production growth In other words, a sustained increase in initial jobless claims can be an early sign of a slowing economy. This is why economists and analysts watch the jobless data closely. As an example, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) by independent think tank The Conference Board analyzes weekly initial jobless claims along with nine other values to predict recessions and expansionary periods. Weekly jobless claims reports can affect stock prices, particularly when the data differs from prevailing expectations. A better-than-expected jobless claims report can encourage higher stock prices and vice versa. To be clear, a positive initial claims reading is lower than expectations, and a negative reading is higher than expectations. For example, say the consensus expectation is 270,000 initial weekly jobless claims. A report of 170,000 initial claims would be well-received by investors, but 370,000 claims would be disappointing. These results could contribute to higher or lower stock prices, depending on other economic and geopolitical news. Learn more: Create a stock investing strategy in 3 steps In the U.S., individual states manage unemployment benefit programs. The states share their claims data with the DOL through the Unemployment Insurance Data. The DOL accesses the information, aggregates it, and calculates the seasonal adjustments to produce the weekly job claims report. The DOL can also revise the jobless claims data after its release. For example, the adjusted and revised initial jobless claims reading for a week could be 248,000 after initially being reported as 247,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) splits the workforce into two groups: the employed and unemployed. Only these two categories of workers are considered in the unemployment rate and other workforce statistics. The BLS further defines unemployed workers as those who don't have a job but are available for and actively seeking employment. Jobless, on the other hand, describes not having employment. This includes those who don't want a job or cannot work due to health or other limitations — two populations the BLS excludes from the workforce. Someone who is not part of the workforce cannot technically be unemployed. In short, all unemployed workers are jobless, but not all jobless individuals are unemployed. Jobless individuals who aren't looking for work can apply for unemployment benefits, but these claims are usually denied. All states require unemployment compensation beneficiaries to prove they are actively engaging in a job search. This embedded content is not available in your region. Tim Manni edited this article.
