Latest news with #jobmarket
Bloomberg
4 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Is AI Fueling the UK's Hiring Freeze?
Subscribe to In the City on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to In the City on Spotify Across the UK, companies are starting to rethink who they hire and, in many cases, if they hire at all. A new McKinsey & Co. report shows a sharp decline in job openings for roles most at risk of being automated, signaling that artificial intelligence isn't just looming on the horizon—it's already speeding up the UK's labor market slowdown.
Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Top analyst says one signal could send stocks reeling
Top analyst says one signal could send stocks reeling originally appeared on TheStreet. The stock market's been cruising on soft-landing optimism, with the S&P 500 hanging tough despite macro headwinds. However, with inflation metrics dominating the headlines, something quieter is stirring up the pot in the background. 💵💰💰💵 The job market data has been showing subtle shifts. We're not talking the usual fireworks regarding rate cuts or CPI shocks, at least not yet. However, even a small wobble could force a rethink in a stock market that is hanging on to momentum. Jobless claims show resilience, but cracks emerge The job market kicked off things with a bang this early January, initial jobless claims dropped to 201,000, their lowest level since April 2021, stunning economists in the process. For a moment, some felt that the labor market had finally shaken off post-pandemic volatility for good. But that stability didn't last long. Claims rose again the following week, climbing to 217,000 as seasonal pressures and wildfire disruptions on the West Coast slowed hiring. A week later, filings edged up higher again to 223,000. Still, not all signs pointed to trouble. Jobless claims dropped again to 207,000 by January 25 due to solid payrolls and consumer spending. Moreover, even through the spring, the labor market stayed firm, especially for an economy up against tariff shocks, cautious corporate guidance, and sticky inflation. In late May, claims were back at 233,000, not alarming, but still on the higher side. The four-week average hovered near 241,000, as layoffs in manufacturing continued to weigh on the numbers. Also, continuing claims were a lot more worrying, with that figure sitting stubbornly between 1.94 million and 1.96 million, the highest since late 2021. Then came July. Despite holiday-week distortions, jobless claims of 227,000 and then 221,000 the following week were far better than Wall Street expectations. That dip reminded analysts that even with a slowdown in growth, the job market has some fight left. But no one's getting too comfortable. Rising continuing claims show that longer-term unemployment is creeping higher in some sectors. More News: Top economist drops 6-word verdict on Trump tariffs, inflation JPMorgan reveals 9 stocks with major problems Major analyst revamps Nvidia stock price target after China surprise Also, with the Fed holding rates steady, every shift in labor data is under the scanner. Jobless claims could send message stock market can't ignore Jobless claims became a critical metric for investors looking for a read on the economy's pulse.U.S. equities strategist at Societe Generale's Manish Kabra feels that if weekly numbers stay under 250,000, the stock market may keep its footing. A break above that, though, could flash a warning signal Wall Street won't like. Initial jobless claims are essentially a measure of how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given week. It's real-time data, much more frequent than other big-ticket reports like CPI or payrolls. And while inflation is still top-of-mind, Kabra says stock investors need to keep an eye out for a critical data point. Historically, when weekly claims get closer to 300,000, a recession tends to follow within just six months. The U.S. isn't there yet, but that metric suggests it could be.. Last week's figure was 221,000, and this week's reading is expected to tick up to 229,000. If that trend continues, it could kill all the enthusiasm driving the markets. Rising jobless claims effectively mean slower consumer spending, as fewer people working usually means less money flowing into the economy. That significantly weakens earnings outlooks, especially for consumer-driven sectors. It also ramps up recession chatter, which typically pulls the market down quickly. So while CPI grabs headlines, jobless claims are quietly shaping up to be the market's next big analyst says one signal could send stocks reeling first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 23, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 23, 2025, where it first appeared. Effettua l'accesso per consultare il tuo portafoglio
Forbes
15 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
Fed Governor Makes Case For Cutting Interest Rates Now
Christopher Waller, Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the United States, arrives ... More for the morning session at 2025 European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Penha Longa Resort on July 01, 2025 in Sintra, Portugal. The European Central Bank hosts its annual Forum on Central Banking from June 30 to July 02. This year the Forum deals with "Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses." (Photo by Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Getty Images) In a July 17 speech Fed Governor Christopher Waller has made the case for lower interest rates based on emerging risks to the job market and a willingness to look through any tariff-related inflation. It is somewhat unusual for a voting member to take such an explicit public position with an interest rate decision approaching on July 30. A Dissent May Be Coming In July If this position is not embraced by the Federal Open Market Committee, then this gives a strong signal of a dissent from Waller. This means that Waller may vote to cut interest rates on July 30 even if the majority decision is to hold the Federal Funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5%. Fixed income markets currently project only a 5% chance that the FOMC does cut rates in July and the FOMC seldom surprises markets in the near term. This means Waller's view may prove an outlier, even though the FOMC's own projections imply cuts are coming in 2025, but probably at later meetings. A Direct Speech Waller's speech was direct because it is more common for FOMC policymakers to discuss other topics in speeches and reference monetary policy perspectives briefly at the opening or closing of their speeches. Expressed views are often more abstract or medium-term in nature rather than calling for a specific policy action in 2 weeks. Waller's July 17 speech was very directly titled, 'The Case for Cutting Now', with an unambiguous opening statement, 'My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should reduce our policy rate by 25 basis points at our next meeting'. Risks To Jobs Waller made the case for lower rates in his speech. He argued, "private-sector payroll gains are near stall speed and flashing red.' His main observation that was in contrast to most recent statements from FOMC members, was that the labor market is softer than it may appear, based on weak private sector job gains and the potential for negative revisions to recent reports. Waller agreed that recent headline unemployment data for June was 'reassuring' but went on to say, "Looking a little deeper, I see reasons to be concerned. Half of the payroll gain came from state and local government, a sector of employment that is notoriously difficult to seasonally adjust this time of year. In contrast, private payroll employment grew just 74,000, a much smaller gain than in the previous two months.' Waller then continued, 'A pattern in data revisions in recent years tells us that the private payroll data are being overestimated and will be revised down significantly when the benchmark revision occurs in early 2026." In addition, Waller is willing to look through any inflationary impact of tariffs, saying, 'policy should look through tariff effects and focus on underlying inflation'. This, for now, is perhaps a different perspective to those recently expressed by other FOMC policymakers including Powell. Other FOMC policymakers have argued that there is relatively elevated economic uncertainty currently and that policymakers might be best positioned to wait for further data on inflation and jobs before adjusting rates given slightly elevated inflation and a robust jobs market. However, the consensus is that economic undertainty may be receding and that rates will likely move slightly lower later in 2025, just likely not at the July meeting. Trump's Calls For Lower Rates Of course, perhaps not coincidentally, this comes at a time when President Trump and others in his administration have been unrelenting and very public in criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates. The Fed's Mandate However, Trump's criticism is largely at cross-purposes with the Fed's mandate. Trump wants to see lower interest rates on government debt, as a way to cut expenses. Although, the FOMC only controls a certain short-term interest rates, not the total cost of government borrowing, which is determined by a host of factors including market forces. In contrast, the Fed's stated mandate is to control inflation and promote employment. Generally, that's why many central banks are independent from politicians, politicians generally prefer lower interest rates for short-term benefits, regardless of whether it is appropriate for the economy over the longer term. Trump is expected to nominate a new Fed Chair for 2026 within months, and Waller is currently viewed as a clear candidate for that position, though not among the front runners on recent assessments. What To Expect If it doesn't sway the broader FOMC, as seems unlikely in the absence of further supporting economic data, then it appears likely that Waller, and maybe others, will dissent in calling for lower rates at the FOMC's July 30 decision as rates are held steady. However, this may provide further evidence that an interest rate cut is coming in September, something which the markets assess as probable currently.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Recruiter Randstad's core profit meets market estimates in Q2
(Reuters) -Dutch recruiter Randstad reported a second-quarter core profit in line with market expectations on Wednesday, citing improvements in some key markets, increased recruitment outsourcing demand and further cost reductions. The world's largest employment agency posted quarterly earnings before interest, taxes and amortization (EBITA), and before one-offs, of 171 million euros ($200.63 million), roughly in line with the average forecast of 170 million from analysts polled by Randstad. Recruiters including Randstad, Adecco and Hays have voiced concerns about the worsening job market driven by an escalating global trade war and economic struggles in major European markets like Germany and France. In the second quarter, the underlying core profits in these markets still faced difficulties, with a narrowing EBITA loss in Germany and an organic earnings decline of 14% in France. Randstad said it expected its gross margin and operating expenses to be slightly lower in the third quarter than in the previous three months. ($1 = 0.8523 euros)
Bloomberg
a day ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
What Impact Could 12% Tariffs Have on Jobs in the EU?
Jasmin Gröschl, senior economist at Allianz, discusses the impact ongoing tariff and trade uncertainty could have on the job market within the European Union. Asked what a potential 12% tariff could mean for the labor market, she says "around half a million jobs" could be at risk within the bloc. Gröschl speaks on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)
