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Washington Post
5 days ago
- Business
- Washington Post
Trump can't achieve his economic goals without more immigrants
Stephen Moore is a co-founder of the nonprofit Unleash Prosperity and was a senior economic adviser to the 2020 Trump campaign. Richard Vedder is an economics professor emeritus at Ohio University and a senior fellow at Unleash Prosperity. Most Americans would agree that immigrants have made a positive contribution to the U.S. economy throughout our nation's history. But legal immigration might be more vital to our economy today than ever before. That is the result of an unavoidable demographic reality: Like that of every other industrialized nation, our population is aging quickly. Roughly 10,000 baby boomers are retiring every day, but nowhere near that number of native-born Americans are entering the workforce. This raises a challenge to the Trump administration's goal of achieving and maintaining 3 percent economic growth, increasing wages and lowering federal budget deficits. To achieve that level of growth, we will need two things: an increasing labor force and higher productivity on the part of working Americans. Artificial intelligence and robotics will provide a profound boost to productivity — just as farm tractors, computers and the internet propelled growth. But we will still need smart and willing workers because our country's declining birth rates deplete the pool of available domestic labor. Our group, Unleash Prosperity, examined the economic and demographic effects of immigrants on American society, using the latest census data. We found that the U.S. economy is already super dependent on immigrants. Over the past decade, just under half of all new civilian workers, almost 6 million, have been immigrants. The majority of them entered the country legally. Here is an even more jaw-dropping statistic on the need for expanded visas: Because of our inverted population pyramid, immigrants will contribute virtually all of the net increase in the American workforce over the next two decades. Without continued immigration, the U.S. workforce would start shrinking. One underappreciated advantage of immigrants is that a disproportionate number come to this country at the start of their working years. They are twice as likely to be in the prime working ages of 18 to 64 than native-born Americans. Only a small percentage of immigrants arrive in the United States during their retirement years. We are mostly importing instant workers. This is why immigrants are a valuable demographic safety valve. Many Trump voters worry that immigrants might take jobs from U.S.-born blue-collar workers, and there is no doubt that in some occupations there is a crowding-out effect. But economy-wide, there is no evidence that natives lose jobs because of immigrants. There are nearly 8 million job openings in the U.S. today, and that number might increase in the years ahead as retirements accelerate. Our study also found that today's immigrants — and their children — are prodigious creators of jobs and businesses. Most of these businesses are small, with a handful of employees, often family members. But some are astonishingly successful, hiring thousands of American workers. We calculated that just under half of the Fortune 500 companies in the United States were started by an immigrant or the child of an immigrant. Of the 'Magnificent Seven' U.S. firms — which together are worth more than all of the companies in Europe — three are led by immigrants. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, was born in South Africa. Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, is from Taiwan. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google, is from India. One prominent example of the United States importing the best and brightest is found in sports. The last seven MVP awards in the National Basketball Association — the award for being the best player in the world — have gone to foreign-born athletes, including Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece), Nikola Jokic (Serbia), Joel Embiid(Cameroon) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Canada). Most immigrants won't be superstar athletes or shooting rockets off to Mars. But most will contribute and help ensure that the United States retains its global supremacy in the decades ahead. If we are smart enough to let them come.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Visa's chief economist agrees with Elon Musk on the need to have more kids
Listen and subscribe to Opening Bid on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is outspoken about the need for more children to boost population growth, and Visa (V) chief economist Wayne Best agrees that something needs to be done. 'We have to be careful that we're still going to be productive and allow for a labor force that will allow this economy to grow,' he told Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi on a new episode of the Opening Bid podcast (see video above; listen below). 'If we don't have additional kids in the future, that's going to create some challenges.' Dieser eingebettete Inhalt ist in Ihrer Region nicht verfügbar. Best has over three decades of experience examining and forecasting in the economics field. He has been Visa's chief economist for more than 35 years. 'Part of our longer-term forecast as we think about the potential growth of this economy, which is, frankly, very much determinant-based on the size of the labor force,' he added. Despite population growth of up to 5% in the past, a slowdown signals 'those days are long gone,' and in their stead is a slower growth season that the US has to prepare for, Best said. Musk has not shied away from his participation in contributing to population growth. In the past, he has allegedly offered to father children with women, used the service of surrogates, and struck up secret deals, all of which are related to expanding his family. At last count, he is the father of 14 children and has frequently taken to X (formerly Twitter) to champion having children, with dispatches that declare "having children is saving the world." In the early days of his time running DOGE in the Trump administration, he was often photographed on the job with his four-year-old son, known as "Lil X." The apple doesn't fall too far from the tree in the Musk family. His mother recently advised people to have children even if they can't afford them, declaring they 'add value to your life." The slowing birth rate in the US is undeniable. In 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an average of 1.66 births per woman, down from 1.88 in 2012 and 2.02 in 2022. Part of the reason for the decline is likely related to the costs associated with raising children. Lending Tree recently reported that raising a child for 18 years will cost parents $279,674 on average, with those expenses in four US states, including Hawaii, costing over $300,000. However, with nearly 12,000 people expected to turn 65 daily between 'now and the end of the decade,' according to Best, 'it really comes down to immigration and what the outlook for that looks like.' Yahoo Finance's Invest conference is coming soon — register here The southern part of the country has benefited from domestic and international migration, he said. It has experienced population growth of 5.6% since 2020, and nearly 78% of the jobs created in the US over the past five years were in the South, per Best. 'If you look at the growth of the South, in terms of the population, nearly 84% of it came from international migration,' he added. That population change is one element, and the other 'is because these new entrants coming in need more types of stores [and] places where they're going to spend,' Best continued. 'The whole South has transformed themselves from a couple decades ago.' Three times each week, Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi fields insight-filled conversations and chats with the biggest names in business and markets on Opening Bid. You can find more episodes on our video hub or watch on your preferred streaming service. Grace Williams is a writer for Yahoo Finance. Melden Sie sich an, um Ihr Portfolio aufzurufen.
Forbes
06-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Jobs Report Casts Warning On Immigration And Labor Force Declines
Donald Trump delivers remarks on the jobs report from the White House on March 7, 2025. The latest ... More jobs report released in July warns policymakers that immigration and labor force declines threaten to harm the U.S. economy. (Photo by) Getty Images The latest jobs report warns policymakers that immigration and labor force declines threaten to harm the U.S. economy. The latest data show changes in immigration policy are reducing the labor supply. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration's deportation policies are one of the reasons U.S. economic growth has slowed. The administration has also removed employment for several hundred thousand workers, blocked the admission of new refugees and may prevent international students from working on Optional Practical Training and STEM OPT after graduation. On July 3, 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, while the unemployment rate remained at a low 4.1%. Supporters hailed the report as proof that the Trump administration's economic policies were working, despite the report containing concerning underlying data. 'The real headline from the recent jobs report should be the falling labor force,' said labor economist Mark Regets, a senior fellow at the National Foundation for American Policy. 'The data for the last five months indicate a serious fall in the number of immigrant workers. Despite growth in the unadjusted numbers, the U.S.-born labor force participation rate and the overall seasonally adjusted labor force total suggest that the loss of immigrant labor is not bringing more U.S.-born workers into the labor force.' The foreign born in the U.S. labor force have declined by 735,000 since January 2025, according to an NFAP analysis of data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Numbers for U.S.-born and foreign-born workers are seasonally unadjusted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes seasonal adjustments to labor force data to account for trends, such as fewer people working outdoors in the winter and more people seeking employment after school lets out for the summer. Regets notes that the labor force tends to grow in June. However, the seasonally adjusted numbers for the whole labor force show a decrease of 364,000 since January 2025. The unadjusted numbers show a 1,009,0000 increase in the total labor force. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said on social media, 'The universe is healing' after an ally claimed the jobs report showed U.S.-born worker employment increased and foreign-born employment fell in June. The problem with what Miller retweeted: Month-to-month changes in the Current Population Survey often jump around because the standard errors are high. 'Any single-month change may be misleading,' notes Regets. Economists would also reject the idea that U.S.-born or foreign-born worker gains need to come at either group's expense. In his 2024 Republican National Convention speech, Donald Trump asserted that more than 100% of new jobs during the Biden presidency were 'taken by illegal aliens.' The data showed that 59% of employment growth under Biden was for U.S.-born workers. As for employment growth for foreign-born workers during the Biden administration, government statistics do not measure how many lacked legal status. From January 2021 to June 2024, employment grew by 13.4 million—7.9 million for U.S.-born workers and 5.5 million for foreign-born workers. Over the past year, the economic data do not support the assertion that removing foreign-born workers from the labor force increased U.S.-born labor force participation. The labor force participation rate for the U.S. born declined from 62.1% to 61.8% between June 2024 and June 2025. During the same period, the labor force participation rate for the foreign born also dropped (from 67.0% to 66.3%). Any increase in the unadjusted total numbers in the labor force is solely a result of population changes and the natural rise in June. 'In each of the past three decades, the foreign born have accounted for more than half of America's labor force growth,' concluded an NFAP analysis in October 2024. 'The number of immigrants in the labor force grew by 19.1 million over the past 30 years, while the U.S. born in the labor force grew by only 16.8 million.' Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the headquarters of ... More the Federal Reserve on December 13, 2023, in Washington, DC. (Photo by) Getty Images The Impact Of Immigration Policy Changes On June 12, 2025, the Trump administration ended the CHNV humanitarian parole program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans, removing work authorization for up to 528,000 people. Workers with Temporary Protected Status from Haiti, Venezuela, Afghanistan and other countries are also seeing their employment authorization terminated, although a court recently gave Haitians a reprieve. In an executive order issued on January 20, 2025, Trump blocked the admission of refugees to the United States, including approximately 100,000 individuals already approved to enter. The Trump administration's actions have harmed employers desperate for workers. 'I have healthcare systems for clients that have a dire need for nurses and are forced to wait two or more years for a nurse through the green card process,' according to Colleen F. Molner of the Garfinkel Immigration Law Firm. 'On top of that, many of them have been faced with the revocation of work authorization from the humanitarian parole termination for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans.' In 2024, 99,000 Haitians were working in healthcare occupations in the United States, including 28,000 non-citizens, according to NFAP estimates of the Current Population Survey monthly public use files. 'I represent hospitals in New Jersey, and the termination of parole programs is visibly exacerbating the already serious labor shortage problem in healthcare,' said Rosanna M. Fox of Lepore Taylor Fox LLP. With the termination of CHNV parole and TPS for Venezuelans, and with the uncertainty facing other parole programs, healthcare organizations are scrambling for ways to replace workers who lost work authorization in an already tight market and on very short notice.' She said hospitals across the country have struggled to find nurses, nurse's aides, environmental services workers and other staff critical to providing health care to Americans. Colleen F. Molner's clients in Florida and elsewhere face similar problems in finding workers to fill healthcare positions. 'The administration has said it will give a reprieve to those working in agriculture, but what about health care, where we're also facing a crisis?' While advocates of more restrictive immigration policies hope removing workers from the economy will raise wages for U.S. workers, economic research calls that into question, particularly because businesses are likely to curtail investment in response to trouble finding qualified workers. 'Immigration, thanks to native-immigrant complementarity and college skill content of immigrants, had a positive and significant effect between +1.7% to +2.6% on wages of less educated native workers, over the period 2000-2019 and no significant wage effect on college educated natives,' according to research by Giovanni Peri and Alessandro Caiumi, economists at the University of California, Davis. 'We also calculate a positive employment rate effect for most native [U.S.-born] workers.' The Economist examined U.S. wage data in occupations with a high proportion of foreign-born workers, including jobs such as janitors and drywall installers. 'Immediately before Mr. Trump came to office, average wage growth in these 'immigration-exposed occupations' exceeded the overall average,' according to The Economist . 'But so far this year, as net migration has plummeted and competition for these jobs has in theory declined, wage growth has actually slowed. Now these occupations have weaker wage growth than the average.' At a Congressional hearing in June, in response to a question from Rep. Maria Salazar (R-FL), Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell explained the factors that affect economic growth. 'There are two things that affect growth,' he said. 'One is growth in the labor force, more people working, and the other thing is productivity, how much do they produce per hour of work. And when you significantly slow the growth of the labor force, you will slow the growth of the economy.' When asked if economic growth will be affected by fewer workers, Powell replied, 'I think that growth will slow and actually is slowing this year, and that's one of the reasons.'
Yahoo
04-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Restaurant job growth moderated in June
You can find original article here Nrn. Subscribe to our free daily Nrn newsletter. The United States economy added about 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, according to federal data released Wednesday morning. June marked the 54th consecutive month of employment growth. Eating and drinking establishments' employment levels moderated, adding just 6,500 jobs last month, versus about 27,400 jobs added in total in April and May. The June moderation comes despite a busy seasonal push for jobs across the industry. Simultaneously, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the third consecutive month, while wages are up 3.9% year-over-year. The resilient unemployment rate and steady wage growth offer reason for optimism among restaurant operators who rely on consumers' willingness to spend more. According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant labor market has added about 72,000 jobs in the last four months, following losses in January and February, and is on pace to post growth this year. That said, the number of employees leaving their jobs has increased in recent months, as illustrated by the slowdown in net job growth. 'This morning's jobs report showed another uptick in employment — across industries and within food services — underscoring continued strength in the labor market. That's generally good news. When more people are working, restaurants typically see a lift in discretionary spending, especially on quick-service and casual dining,' said Restaurant365 general manager of inventory and purchasing Joe Hannon. 'But for operators, there's a tradeoff. Staffing remains competitive and rising wages continue to compress margins. We're hearing from customers that turnover is still a major issue, and even fully staffed teams are stretched thin. Now's the time to double down on retention strategies, whether that means optimizing schedules to reduce fatigue, automating repetitive tasks, or using performance data to spot burnout before it turns into churn. The more restaurants can streamline, the more bandwidth managers have to focus on culture and consistency.' Notably, the industry's workforce remains above pre-pandemic levels by about 86,000 jobs, or 0.7%. Employment at snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars – including coffee, doughnut, and ice cream shops – was 172,000 jobs (or 21%) above February 2020 readings. Employee counts at quick-service and fast-casual restaurants were 115,000 jobs (or 2.5%) above pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, full-service restaurant employment levels remained 226,000 jobs (or 4%) below pre-pandemic readings, as of May 2025. The association also reports uneven job growth across markets, with 20 states and Washington, D.C., below pre-pandemic readings, led by West Virginia and Massachusetts (both at -6%). Maryland (-5%), Vermont (-4%), and New Mexico (-4%) also continue to recover. Meanwhile, Idaho (16%), Nevada (14%), Utah (14%), and Arizona (11%) are all well above pre-pandemic employment levels. Contact Alicia Kelso at
Forbes
04-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
June Jobs Report OK, But Waiting For The Other Shoe To Drop
FILE - A worker drives a forklift past shelves of Canadian spruce planks, at Shell Lumber and ... More Hardware, Tuesday, April 8, 2025, in Miami. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File) The American job market exceeded expectations in June, posting job gains of 147,000 and seeing the unemployment rate tick down by a tenth of a point to 4.1%. All in all, it's an acceptable report, but not without its flaws – some conditional and some fundamental – which must be taken into account. For example, why did the unemployment rate fall? One would think it's due to more people finding jobs, but in this case, just the opposite is true. The civilian labor force – the number of people working and/or looking for work – shrank by 130,000. That's a lot of people who have just given up looking for work. When that happens and all else stays the same, the rate falls. Another thing we should keep watching is the labor force participation rate, which dropped from 62.4% to 62.3%, not alarming, but from 62.6% a year ago, a drop considered notable. Along racial and ethnic lines, the data shows inequity. Unemployment among whites is 3.6%, among Asians it's 3.5%, among Hispanics it's 4.8%, and among African-Americans it has ballooned to 6.8%. The distribution of the job gains is troubling for the second straight month. Of the 147,000 jobs created in June, 73,000 – half – came in the government sector. Another 39,000 came in health care and 19,000 came in social assistance. Among the three sectors, 89% of June's job growth occurred. The other eight sectors showed little or no growth or actual losses. Uneven growth is vulnerable. Further, that 73,000 figure for government jobs seems inordinately, curiously high. Given the intense activity of DOGE earlier in the year – layoffs, closings, etc. – and all the subsequent appeals and reversals, this is questionable at best. All in all, what appears to be an OK job report is shaky and suspicious, and will be tested in the upcoming months.
