Latest news with #leanhogs
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Lean Hogs Are Starting to Stumble. Are Prices Set to Fall?
October lean hog futures (HEV25) present a selling opportunity on more price weakness. See on the daily bar chart for October lean hog futures that prices have backed down from the June high and the bears have gained some technical momentum. The price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. See, too, that the red 9-day moving average has produced a bearish line crossover sell signal by crossing below the green 18-day moving average. Why the Grains Sector is "Feeling Down" Monday Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Fundamentally, the recent USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report showed higher-than-expected hog supplies and anticipation for greater supplies later this year. Cash hog (HEY00) and pork market fundamentals are starting to weaken. The CME lean hog index appears to have put in a seasonal top as the low in annual hog slaughter levels has occurred. Futures contracts trading below the cash hog market suggest traders believe a seasonal price top is in place. A move in October lean hog futures prices below chart support at $91.525 would give the bears more power and it would also become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be $84.00, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at $95.00. IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Lean Hog Futures Warn of a Market Top, But Can Burgers and BLTs Save the Day?
August lean hog futures (HEQ25) saw a profit-taking setback late last week after hitting a contract high of $113.375 a hundredweight on June 17. The hog market bulls have faded, technically, as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has at least temporarily been negated with Friday's push to a new three-week low. That is one chart clue that a market top is in place. Part of late last week's selling pressure was due to a bearish USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report published Thursday. The U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1 was a larger-than-expected 75.1 million head. This was up slightly from June 1, 2024, and up 1% from March 1, 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down slightly from last year, and down slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 69.2 million head, was up slightly from last year, and up 1% from last quarter. Coffee Prices Fall on Abundant Rainfall in Brazil Cocoa Prices Higher on Dollar Weakness and Tighter Ivory Coast Supplies NY Sugar Prices Slump Ahead of July Contract Expiration Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. Pork cutout value (KMZ25) and the CME Lean Hog Index are presently at their highest levels in almost three years, despite the relatively larger U.S. hog herd. That suggests strong consumer demand for pork at the meat counter. With beef prices at historically elevated levels and with consumer confidence declining, it is likely that we will see better consumer substitution demand for the less-expensive pork cuts over the pricier beef cuts. The latest CME Lean Hog Index is up another 48 cents to $111.89 as of June 25. The preliminary calculation puts the index up another 13 cents to $112.02 for Monday. Pork cutout value on Friday did decline by $2.19, to $117.46, but movement was solid at 333.46 loads. U.S. pork production is nearing a seasonal low. That has helped lift pork cutout value and cash hog prices as packers bid up for the smaller supplies. One worrisome element for the hog and fresh pork markets is that outdoor grilling season demand is currently peaking and will taper off after the Fourth of July holiday. Also, cash cattle prices appear to have topped out after a string of weekly record high average prices, which was halted in late June. Declining cash cattle (LEY00) and live cattle futures (LEQ25) prices in the near term would also be a bearish weight on the cash and lean hog futures markets. Starting in early July and lasting for several weeks is the bacon, lettuce and tomato (BLT) season, as home-grown tomatoes get ripe and plump, luring consumers to slap some bacon on the stove for some BLTs. Fresh bellies have been the primary driver of elevated pork cutout values as grocers have stepped up purchases in preparation for BLT-season demand. S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq ($NASX) stock index futures hit record highs last week as trader and investor risk appetite surprisingly sprang back to life after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which significantly de-escalated Middle East tensions. If risk appetite in the marketplace remains robust, the speculative commodity market bulls will be more aggressive on the long sides of the futures markets, including lean hogs. The speculators are the grease for the skids of up-trending bull markets in commodities. Conversely, a quick return of keener risk aversion in the general marketplace could mark the end of the latest bull market in lean hog futures. On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Globe and Mail
06-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Wait for Lean Hog Futures to Move Above This Level Before You Buy
July lean hog futures (HEN25) present a buying opportunity on more price strength. See on the daily bar chart for July lean hog futures that prices are trending higher and last week hit a two-month high. See at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bullish posture as the red MACD line is above the blue trigger line and both lines are trending up. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Fundamentally, the record-setting bull run in the cattle and beef markets is friendly for hog and pork markets. High beef prices at the meat counter mean better consumer substitution demand for less expensive pork cuts. Also, the outdoor grilling season is just commencing, which also means better consumer demand for pork. A move in July lean hogs above chart resistance at last week's high of $101.90 would become a buying opportunity. The upside price objective would be $111.00, or above. Technical support, for which to place a protective sell stop just below, is located at $97.60. IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
