Latest news with #lowerincomehouseholds
Forbes
15-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
June 2025 CPI: Why a 0.3% Food-Price Rise Feels Bigger Than It Looks
Food prices rose 0.3% in June, but for many shoppers, inflation still feels worse. Here's why trust ... More in grocery pricing hasn't caught up with the data. In June, food prices rose 0.3%, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics—about the same as April, and slightly faster than May's 0.1% bump. On paper, that might look like stability. But at the grocery store, most shoppers aren't feeling it. Even modest increases can feel like food inflation and carry emotional weight when trust still hasn't caught up with the numbers. A 0.3% increase may not seem like much—until you realize that for a family already stretched thin, it compounds. It's the kind of quiet rise that doesn't make headlines but continues to erode confidence. More importantly, it shows how even slight food inflation can carry emotional weight, especially when wages, rent, and utilities aren't keeping pace. Food away from home rose even more—0.4% in June—and those increases tend to hit lower-income households hardest. Eating out is often the first thing cut from a stretched budget. Yet it's also one of the last remaining affordable luxuries for many—a small act of agency in an otherwise limited menu of choices. What It Reflects: Numbers vs. Lived Experience Year over year, food prices are up 3.0%. That's nowhere near the double-digit jumps from 2022 or 2023, but it's still enough to shift how people shop and eat. It's not a shock, it's a slow drip and that's often harder to adapt to. They're what's driving long-term changes in grocery habits—like the rise of store brands, DIY pantry cooking, eating at home and a deeper mistrust of food pricing overall. This month's CPI also underscores a familiar tension: the official data shows moderation, but many shoppers don't feel any real relief. That mismatch helps explain why food inflation stories continue to perform well, why social media is full of 'then vs. now' grocery hauls, and why fast food backlash keeps cycling. The math may work, but the math isn't the memory. Even as categories like new and used vehicles showed price declines, those aren't the expenses people feel every week. Groceries are. They're a recurring emotional barometer. So even 'just' a 0.3% rise feels outsized when paired with record heat, utility spikes, and student loan interest quietly accruing in the background. What to Expect Next: Tariffs, Trust, and Dinner-Table Reality On July 14, the U.S. Department of Commerce officially terminated the 2019 Suspension Agreement on fresh tomatoes from Mexico, reinstating a 17.09% antidumping duty. This trade shift directly impacts one of summer's most symbolic foods. Mexico supplies roughly 70% of the U.S. fresh tomato market. Analysts expect the new tariff could lead to a 6–10% rise in retail tomato prices, though the CPI may not reflect the impact until later this summer. For shoppers, though, it will be felt far sooner—in the price of tomatoes per pound, in the switch from fresh to canned, or in skipping making a dish altogether. It's a reminder that monthly reports like CPI doesn't always catch what's actually happening on the ground or in people's kitchens. A spike in tomato prices might not move the next inflation report, but it still changes what gets made for dinner. Why It's Worth Watching If you're trying to understand where consumer behavior is heading—especially for brands, retailers, and policymakers—this month's CPI makes it clear: the public is still recalibrating their expectations. And they're doing it not just based on price but on trust. That gap between official numbers and emotional reaction is echoed by Jayson Lusk, head of agricultural economics at Purdue University. In a recent farmdoc daily article published by the University of Illinois, Lusk notes that 'consumer anxiety is increasingly driven by food prices and tariffs, not inflation as a general economic concept.' In other words, the thing we call inflation is no longer abstract—it's become deeply personal. And new policy moves, like the tomato tariff, can reignite that anxiety faster than macro data can soothe it. Until the experience of shopping aligns more closely with the headlines about 'cooling inflation,' expect more skepticism, more shift toward value-based shopping, and more resonance with stories that validate the emotional experience of food inflation. We talk a lot about inflation as if it's a macroeconomic fact. But food inflation is also a feeling—one that lingers longer than a 0.3% increase. And in 2025, it's not just about prices—it's about trust, habits, and how we learn to live with food inflation in real time. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Why do food prices feel higher even when inflation is cooling? Even when overall inflation slows, shoppers still feel the impact of smaller increases—especially in essential categories like food. A 0.3% monthly rise may not sound dramatic, but it adds up, especially when paired with rising rent, energy bills, or stagnant wages. The emotional memory of past price spikes also lingers, shaping how people experience new ones. What impact will the tomato tariff have on grocery prices? The 17.09% duty on fresh tomatoes from Mexico, reinstated by the U.S. Department of Commerce in July 2025, could raise retail tomato prices by 6–10%, according to analysts. While this may not show up in CPI right away, consumers are likely to feel it sooner in the produce aisle and on their dinner tables. How is consumer trust in food pricing changing? Many shoppers no longer trust headlines about 'cooling inflation' if their lived experience tells a different story. According to economist Jayson Lusk, food prices and tariffs—not general economic inflation—are now the primary drivers of consumer anxiety. This shift is reshaping grocery behavior, brand loyalty, and pricing perception.
News.com.au
21-05-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
‘10.6 years': Dire reality for Aussies revealed in State of Housing System report
The Australian dream of homeownership is looking more hopeless than ever. A median-income household now needs to save for 10.6 years just to afford a deposit and start a whole new challenge of servicing a new mortgage, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council's annual State of the Housing System 2025 report shows. It notes that mortgage repayments continue to increase faster than incomes, and affordability continues to deteriorate though at a slower pace compared with 2023. About 50 per cent of median household income was needed to meet repayments for new mortgages in 2024, according to the report. It does not look good for renters either, as 33 per cent of median wages are needed to meet rental costs in new leases. Rental stress has affected more than 50 per cent of lower-income renter households in 2023. Sixty per cent of these households also experienced stress the year before, showing how persistent the issue is. Only 14 per cent of new homes sold in 2023-2024 were affordable for the median-income household, the lowest on record. NSW residents have drawn the short straw, as new mortgages and home deposits remain the least affordable in Australia, whereas the Northern Territory has the most affordable mortgages and home deposits. Rents in regional Queensland were the least affordable, but rents in Canberra were the most affordable. New housing supply is the lowest in a decade, and the 1.2 million target for new houses to be completed during the Housing Accord period will not be met – even under optimistic economic estimates, the report says. No state or territory will meet their target, and supply is insufficient to meet underlying demand. The report has called for systemic reform, government support measures and industry innovation to address the issues, but the NSW government says it is heading in the right direction. 'The Minns Labor government inherited a system that was working against achieving the Housing Accord targets. It was also never assumed that, given macroeconomic conditions and the costs of construction, it would be a straight line between now and mid-2029,' Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully said. 'We are turning around the system. Planning approvals are 15 per cent faster today than they were in March 2023, the number of applications lodged is up 28 per cent on the same time last year, and NSW has the most homes under construction in the country. 'There are thousands more homes and DAs being finalised that are embracing our planning reforms such as the Housing Delivery Authority and the low and mid-rise policy. We're building a pipeline that will actually deliver homes. 'The State of the Housing System report shows us that we have our work cut out for us, but as a government we've got our priorities right.' Weak supply has been attributed to a lack of commercial feasibility – it costs more for developers to build than what they would earn selling it. Elevated costs, labour shortages, high financing are all constraining supply but should be easing, the report says. Property Council chief executive Mike Zorbas said the report showed the need to increase productivity in the construction sector, simplify planning systems and encourage investment. 'The alarm bell continues to sound on national housing supply,' Mr Zorbas said. 'The sad fact is that many Australians feel that homeownership is out of reach. 'We have seen the federal and state governments co-ordinate their efforts on boosting supply, but more must be done. 'Our skills and planning systems are not yet match fit for this century. 'More than 30 per cent of the cost of a new home is government taxes and charges. 'East coast states have daft foreign investment taxes that are barbed wire to overseas institutions that want to send their money to help Australian companies build the assets our cities need. 'The least cost answer for indebted states is to modernise our planning systems and put measures in place to boost the proportion of skilled workers coming into the country. 'We need to bring forward federal environmental approvals and force power and water providers to stop delaying the delivery of new homes, industrial and commercial assets that our communities need as they grow.'
