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Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
New Tariff Threats Give Market Indexes a Haircut
Monday, July 7, 2025Just when we thought it was safe to take our eye off the market… threats of new tariffs from President Trump rear their ugly heads again. We started the trading day with the understanding that the July 9th tariff pause deadline was being pushed back to August 1st to U.S. trading partners who have not yet established new trade deals (which is almost all of them). Thus, the trim off record highs we saw before the opening bell turned into a full were off session lows, with a little up-turn in the final minutes to salve the daily losses. The Dow closed -422 points, -0.94% on the day, while the S&P 500 was -49 points, -0.79%. The Nasdaq was more or less in-line, -188 points or -0.92%, while the small-cap Russell 2000, freshly entering the green once again year to date, dumped -1.58% for the session. Bond yields inched up throughout the day, from +4.36% on the 10-year and +3.88% on the 2-year to +4.39% and +3.90%, all-time closing highs on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, President Trump has once again voiced a hard line on tariff policy, particularly against two countries in the Far East — South Korea and Japan. Without a new trade deal with the U.S. by the end of this month, an additional +25% will be slapped onto both countries. For countries such as South Africa and Malaysia, Trump has taken to Truth Social to threaten between +25-40% new tariffs. This included a Sunday evening social media post decrying 'Anti-American policies of BRICS' countries — originally Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but in recent years adding countries like Egypt, UAE, Iran and Indonesia, with invitations to Saudi Arabia and Turkiye — which would see an additional +10% tariff put on imported goods to the U.S. But as we remarked this morning in this space it is growing more difficult to ascertain the level of seriousness to such Amazon's AMZN answer to China's 'Singles Day' (November 11th, or 11/11), 'Prime Day' has expanded from a single day of e-commerce discounts to now four full days, from Tuesday the 8th through Friday the 11th. This doubles the recent two-day event for Amazon, which last year reached a record-high $14.2 billion in sales, +11% year over year.'Prime Day' includes more than 35 retail categories, such as home goods, electronics, beauty and fashion, and will this year offer a new wrinkle: 'Today's Big Deals' on short-term sale prices announced by top brands. BofA securities analyst Justin Post estimates more than $21 billion in Gross Merchandise Value, according to Barron' shares are currently nearly $20 per share off their all-time high market levels reached in February of this year, yet well higher than the near-term trough in late April. Zacks consensus estimates for Amazon's Q2 results are for +7.3% earnings growth and +9.5% growth on the revenue side. Amazon currently rides a 10-quarter string of earnings beats, with a trialing 4-quarter average of more than +20%. The company reports earnings roughly four weeks from or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Inc. (AMZN) : Free Stock Analysis Report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tesla stock rises despite sales miss, Microsoft to cut 9K jobs
Yahoo Finance's John Hyland takes a closer look at some of the top stories on Wall Street as part of today's Market Minute. Investors are shrugging off the latest ADP report showing an unexpected decline in job growth for June. Tesla (TSLA) stock is climbing despite the company reporting a 13% drop in vehicle deliveries in its second quarter. Microsoft (MSFT) plans to cut 9,000 jobs in its second major workforce reduction this year. Stay up to date on the latest market action, minute-by-minute, with Yahoo Finance's Market Minute. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Soybeans Falling on Monday
Soybeans are posting losses of double digits of 10 to 15 ccents on Monday, as the bean oil market is facing crude oil pressure. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price is down 10 1/4 cents at $10.10 3/4. Soymeal futures are $2/ton lower. Soy Oil is trading with midday losses of 123 points. Crude oil down $2.75, as the market is failing to see reaction following the US strikes on Iran nuclear facilities over the weekend. USDA tallied soybean export shipments at just 192,890 MT (7.09 mbu) during the week ending on June 19. That was a MY low, down 13.7% from last week and 44.9% below the same week last year. Of that total, just 63,382 MT was headed to Germany, with 558,883 MT on its way to Mexico. Marketing year exports have totaled 45.62 MMT (1.676 bbu), which is 10.6% above the same period last year. Coffee Prices Rebound on Slack Rain in Brazil Cocoa Prices Surge as Ivory Coast Cocoa Exports Slow Sugar Prices Pressured by the Outlook for Adequate Supplies Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Crop Progress data is expected to show the US soybean crop at 97% planted, with traders looking for 67% of the crop rated good/excellent, up 66% from last year. Jul 25 Soybeans are at $10.57 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents, Nearby Cash is at $10.10 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents, Aug 25 Soybeans are at $10.60 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents, Nov 25 Soybeans are at $10.45 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents, New Crop Cash is at $9.92 1/1, down 15 cents, On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Reuters
24-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Morning Bid: Oil, rates and the dollar tumble
LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets After a tentative ceasefire was announced in the Middle East, U.S. crude, gold, Treasury yields and the dollar gave up all gains registered since Israel's initial attack on Iran on June 13. Throughout this episode, energy market worries never amounted to a true 'shock' as movements of oil were largely unaffected. And given the large global supply overhang and slowing world demand, annual U.S. oil price gains never turned positive at any point over the past 12 days, failing even to set a new high for 2025. I'll discuss all of today's market news below and then move away from the headlines to explain how plunging immigration and the graying of America may be impacting the Federal Reserve's view of the U.S. labor market. Today's Market Minute * Oil tumbled 4%, global shares surged and the dollar dropped on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was in place. * However, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday he had ordered the military to strike Tehran after Iran fired missiles in violation of the ceasefire. * Crude oil's sharp reversal of the Israel-Iran war premium shows the power of a few words from a key player to move the market, but ROI columnist Clyde Russell suggests the bigger issue here may be who played silent: Iran's allies. * Investors globally appear to be gradually reducing their exposure to dollar-denominated assets, driving the greenback down to its lowest level in years. ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever explores where most of this selling is coming from. * Rapid growth in the installation of batteries is upending power systems across the United States. ROI columnist Gavin Maguire outlines the key battery system trends to track. Oil, rates and the dollar tumble Iran's token response to U.S. bombing of its nuclear facilities over the weekend was a well-telegraphed missile launch on U.S. bases in Qatar. That was quickly followed by U.S. President Donald Trump's acknowledgement of Tehran's intent to de-escalate and a call for a ceasefire that Israel said it would abide by. Whether that ceasefire will hold remains uncertain, with some exchanges between Iran and Israel reported this morning and the situation still tense. But as it stands before Tuesday's U.S. open, crude is just $66 per barrel - $12 below Monday's peak - and just slightly up from a two-week low of $64.38 earlier in the session. In fact, Oil is now down almost 18% year-over-year. The S&P 500 rose 1% on Monday, and futures are up another 1% before Tuesday's bell. The VIX volatility gauge (.VIX), opens new tab is back to where it was on June 12, just above 18, with the gold price falling as well. The dollar skidded (.DXY), opens new tab lower too, with the euro back within a whisker of 3-1/2-year highs and the yen recovering all of Monday losses. European and Asia shares surged more than 1% too. Wall Street now switches attention back home to the Federal Reserve, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell starting his two-day, semi-annual congressional testimony today just as some of his colleagues have stated turning remarkably dovish on the interest rate outlook. Trump clearly thinks the Fed should move immediately to slash rates by "two to three points". The president has been lambasting Powell on an almost daily basis for not doing so. But Trump's appointees to the Fed board, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, are now both advocates of easing sooner rather than later, opening up a big split between hawks and doves at the central bank. As many as seven policymakers last week indicated that they expected no rate cuts at all in 2025. But Bowman, who recently was one of the most hawkish members of the Fed's policy making council, electrified the rates market on Monday by saying it's time to consider easing as soon as next month. "Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market," said Bowman, now Fed Vice Chair for Supervision. A parade of Fed speakers on Tuesday's slate could pour cold water on that view, but many market players think there is some jockeying for position going on at the central bank, with Trump expected to soon announce his pick to replace Powell when the Fed Chair's term expires next year. Even though Fed futures markets are still only pricing in a roughly 20% chance of a July cut, full year easing bets rose almost 10 basis points to near 60 bp after the Bowman comments and oil price retreat. Treasury yields responded quickly to the rate signals and energy relief, even with another heavy week of debt sales kicking off on Tuesday with $69 billion of 2-year notes up for grabs. Benchmark 10-year yields plunged below 4.3% for the first time in six weeks on Monday, though they've nudged back above that level again before today's bell. Elsewhere on Monday, Tesla shares (TSLA.O), opens new tab jumped over 9%after the electric-vehicle maker started testing its long-awaited robotaxi service, which CEO Elon Musk has touted as a driver of Tesla's lofty valuation. US migrant halt may wipe potential job growth If you're wondering why so many U.S. Federal Reserve officials are remaining hawkish despite slowing growth, consider how the dramatic drop in immigration and the graying of America are impacting the unfolding labor market picture. Often overlooked by markets focused on the latest news about tariffs, geopolitics and energy markets, curtailing illegal immigration, a signature policy of President Donald Trump, is now starting to move the needle on the U.S. jobs outlook. The flow of migrant workers into the U.S. has effectively halted over the past year. The pace was already slowing sharply before the election but has ground to a near halt along with the rise in deportations this year. Couple that with the steadily aging population of existing workers, and it looks like a labor crunch could be on the horizon. Economists at Barclays tracking these trends reckon that 'potential' non-farm private payrolls growth - or the level of extra jobs that can be created without leading to worker shortages - could fall to less than 10,000 per month by the end of next year from more than 100,000 today. They estimate that potential job growth will fall to about 60,000 within the next six months, slowing potential economic growth to only 1.4-1.6% year-on-year through next year from just over 2% now. These numbers are pretty stark when considering that average monthly private payrolls growth has been around 172,000 over the past two years. Meanwhile, Barclays says it expects the effects of population ageing to "intensify very soon", putting even more downward pressure on jobs growth. The combined impact of the two forces is "about to create significant and persistent headwinds to potential growth in the labor force and economic activity," it said. The ingredients used to make the forecast are sobering. U.S. immigration surged over the past three years, adding a net 3-4 million to the U.S. population. The roughly 2 million new workers are four times the annual rate of the immediate pre-pandemic years. These were mostly asylum-seeking or 'humanitarian' cases given temporary authorization to live and work in the U.S. In fact, over the past two years, Barclays estimated that about three quarters of average monthly private jobs gains of almost 180,000 were filled by migrant workers. But since last summer, net inflows of humanitarian migrants have fallen to nearly zero. And, on top of that, the Barclays tracker estimated current deportations to be running at about 10,000 a month. On the flipside, U.S. census projections expect the population to decline by about 50,000 in 2026 and 100,000 in 2027. The aging of the population should also cause the labor force to shrink by about 360,000 this year and next, accelerating thereafter. Tweaking the underlying assumptions leads to different outcomes, of course, but Barclays' central conclusion is that potential payroll growth should essentially flatline in the coming years, weighing on potential GDP growth. Morgan Stanley also revised down net immigration estimates to a near halt this year and next, although it expects higher payroll 'breakevens' of 70,000 in 2025 and 2026. For the Fed, an unfolding economic slowdown, compounded by a demand hit from trade war uncertainties, may be arguments for easing policy now. Trump clearly thinks it should move immediately to slash rates, and his appointees to the Fed board, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, are both now advocates of easing sooner rather than later. But if worker shortages are the problem, then that creates a very different problem for the Fed. In that scenario, the Fed's full employment mandate would not be at risk, but wage pressures could aggravate still above-target price inflation. With tariff hikes already fogging up the inflation horizon, it's therefore not surprising that seven Fed policymakers anticipate keeping the central bank's main borrowing rate steady through the rest of this year at least. A hit to the labor force then could cause growth to slow, even as the employment rate stays low and inflation pressures simmer. Fed inertia may be warranted if that transpires. Chart of the day The oil market registered relatively few signs of alarm during a fortnight of intense aerial warfare between Israel and Iran that included this weekend's U.S. bombing of the latter's nuclear installations. In the context of the last 35 years of sharp oil price movements, this episode has been minor - so far at least. Today's events to watch * U.S. Q1 current account (8:30 EDT), April house prices (9:00 EDT), June consumer confidence (10:00 EDT), Richmond Federal Reserve June business surveys (10:00 EDT) * Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony before House Financial Services Committee (9:00 EDT) * New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari and Kansas City Fed boss Jeff Schmid all speak; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and ECB chief economist Philip Lane speak; Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and BoE policymaker Megan Greene speak * U.S. Treasury sells $69 billion 2-year notes * U.S. corporate earnings: FedEx, Carnival Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
The Standard
24-06-2025
- Business
- The Standard
HK stocks exceed 24,000 points on ceasefire optimism as gold, oil prices dip
The Hang Seng Index gained 487 points, or about 2 percent, to 24,177 points at the close. SING TAO
