Latest news with #marketoptimism
Yahoo
27-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The open road ahead for investors: Morning Brief
SPACS are back. Bitcoin's riding high. Nvidia's (NVDA) market cap is $3.8 trillion. Imminent or at least soonish rate cuts are back on the table. And the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is flirting with a new closing record amid tech optimism. Stripped of context and isolated from worrisome headlines, you'd think the market was operating in a different time period. But here we are. The news environment and political moment matter, of course, as this latest bout of unleashed animal spirits is a reaction to shrinking negative catalysts and the dissolving of some of the most troublesome uncertainties. The current pivot back to 2024 market narratives has been a sharp one, and the week's Fed drama was bolstered by a pair of readings Thursday: A weaker first quarter GDP estimate than was previously reported and fresh labor data bolstered the case that it's getting tougher for people out of a job to find work. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy The updates appeared to convince more investors that the Fed will speed up rate-cutting plans to address deteriorating economic conditions. Market bets are welcoming the "bad news" with open arms because it means there's a chance the first rate cut could arrive as soon as July, and if not, almost certainly by September, and because that "bad news" comes as the unemployment rate is still — as Powell is wont to remind the public — at a historically low 4.2%. The dovish turn coincides with a sentiment shift that the tariff impact will be more muted than originally thought. And market optimism has been jolted as Wall Street interprets the hostilities between the US and Iran as on a path to deescalation. "The stock market is back at record highs as various uncertainties start to fade," said Paul Stanley, chief investment officer at Granite Bay Wealth Management, in a note Thursday. "The market is betting on continued progress on trade and a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East is giving investors confidence." But as Stanley and others point out, even as the market reaches for new highs, it's unclear what the next major catalyst could be with last quarter's major obstacles out of the way. If so much of the positive momentum flowed from the collapse of worst-case scenarios, focus now goes to the positive ones. And there certainly are plenty to count. Fed cut speculation could turn into an actual Fed cut — or Fed cuts. The Magnificent Seven could get their mojo back and turn around a rough year. More trade deals could emerge instead of trade war pauses. That's one way to look at it. But things can obviously keep trucking along even when the drama dies down. Conditions have been so volatile that it's easy to forget earnings growth and the AI story were more than enough to power the market for a good while. When volatility drops, the market's rise almost seems gravitational. With a clearer playing field, what's to stop that from happening again? Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
27-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The open road ahead for investors: Morning Brief
SPACS are back. Bitcoin's riding high. Nvidia's (NVDA) market cap is $3.8 trillion. Imminent or at least soonish rate cuts are back on the table. And the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is flirting with a new closing record amid tech optimism. Stripped of context and isolated from worrisome headlines, you'd think the market was operating in a different time period. But here we are. The news environment and political moment matter, of course, as this latest bout of unleashed animal spirits is a reaction to shrinking negative catalysts and the dissolving of some of the most troublesome uncertainties. The current pivot back to 2024 market narratives has been a sharp one, and the week's Fed drama was bolstered by a pair of readings Thursday: A weaker first quarter GDP estimate than was previously reported and fresh labor data bolstered the case that it's getting tougher for people out of a job to find work. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy The updates appeared to convince more investors that the Fed will speed up rate-cutting plans to address deteriorating economic conditions. Market bets are welcoming the "bad news" with open arms because it means there's a chance the first rate cut could arrive as soon as July, and if not, almost certainly by September, and because that "bad news" comes as the unemployment rate is still — as Powell is wont to remind the public — at a historically low 4.2%. The dovish turn coincides with a sentiment shift that the tariff impact will be more muted than originally thought. And market optimism has been jolted as Wall Street interprets the hostilities between the US and Iran as on a path to deescalation. "The stock market is back at record highs as various uncertainties start to fade," said Paul Stanley, chief investment officer at Granite Bay Wealth Management, in a note Thursday. "The market is betting on continued progress on trade and a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East is giving investors confidence." But as Stanley and others point out, even as the market reaches for new highs, it's unclear what the next major catalyst could be with last quarter's major obstacles out of the way. If so much of the positive momentum flowed from the collapse of worst-case scenarios, focus now goes to the positive ones. And there certainly are plenty to count. Fed cut speculation could turn into an actual Fed cut — or Fed cuts. The Magnificent Seven could get their mojo back and turn around a rough year. More trade deals could emerge instead of trade war pauses. That's one way to look at it. But things can obviously keep trucking along even when the drama dies down. Conditions have been so volatile that it's easy to forget earnings growth and the AI story were more than enough to power the market for a good while. When volatility drops, the market's rise almost seems gravitational. With a clearer playing field, what's to stop that from happening again? Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
21-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
‘Stick to the Bullish Trend': Truist Sees Breakout Ahead for S&P 500 — 2 Stocks That Could Ride the Momentum
Markets roared into the new year on a wave of tech and AI optimism, climbing to record highs in February. That rally briefly lost steam when Trump's erratic tariff rollout injected a dose of uncertainty into the market. But with those concerns now receding, investors are shifting back into risk-on mode, and the S&P 500 is trading less than 3% below its peak. Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter On a 12-month basis, Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist, sees this stretch as a period of quiet consolidation — one that could pave the way for further upside. 'If you look at the big picture for the overall market – the S&P – we've been flat for seven months, and the technology sector has been flat for almost a year. As we test these technical levels, I think we'll eventually break above them,' Lerner opined. 'That said, there's likely to be some pain trade… but I think in general, the underlying trend is still positive and we want to stick with that underlying trend.' Taking that outlook to heart, Truist's stock analysts have pinpointed two stocks they believe are primed to benefit from renewed market strength. We've used the TipRanks database to find out what the rest of the Street has to say about both of their recent picks. TAT Technologies (TATT) The first company we'll look at is TAT Technologies, an aerospace tech firm that provides a set of specialized services for the commercial and military aviation industries. These services include thermal solutions, including environmental controls as well as engine and fluid coolant systems; APU support, including service and maintenance of aircraft APUs (auxiliary power units); and landing gear services, to support this key system. At its core, TAT, a global firm, gives its customers a wide-ranging set of technical skills vital to keep aircraft fleets in efficient operating order. TAT was founded in 1969, and brings its decades of experience to bear on aviation problem solving. The company takes a proactive approach, delivering cutting-edge solutions designed to promote customer confidence along with operational efficiency. Aviation is big business, and TAT has leveraged its supporting role to build up a business that generated $152.1 million in revenues last year. In its most recent earnings report, covering 1Q25, TAT showed solid year-over-year growth in both revenue and earnings. The company had a top line of $42.1 million, up almost 24% from 1Q24, and the bottom line of 34 cents per share was up from 19 cents in the prior-year period. We should note that the company's revenue total just missed the forecast, coming in $450,000 below the estimates. On a more positive note, EPS trumped Street expectations by $0.04. For Truist's Michael Ciarmoli, an analyst ranked amongst the top 1% of Wall Street stock pros, the key points for investors here are TAT's solid potential for expansion and growth, and its favorable risk/reward profile. He writes, 'We view TATT as an under the radar small cap comm'l aero aftermarket component repair player poised to drive above market/peer avg growth through share gains and an improved go-to-market strategy. In the coming years as revenues grow and the company scales its operations we believe gross and EBITDA margin expansion will be a key driver of the stock. In the near-term mgmt's execution on its recent APU repair wins and corresponding share gains will be a major focus point. With the stock trading at a 20% discount to its closest peers on an EV/EBITDA basis we believe the risk/reward profile is favorably skewed.' The 5-star analyst goes on to put a Buy rating on this stock, complemented by a $35 price target that suggests a potential one-year upside of 32%. (To watch Ciarmoli's track record, click here) There are only two recent analyst reviews on file for TATT shares, but both are positive – giving the stock its Moderate Buy consensus rating. The shares are priced at $26.44 and their $35.50 average price target implies that the stock will gain 34% in the coming year. (See TATT stock forecast) Peloton Interactive (PTON) Next on our list is Peloton, the well-known home workout company that brought interactive social media to the world of home-based fitness. Peloton has updated an old stand-by – the stationary bicycle – with modern technology, including digital video connections. This forms the base for a connected, online exercise community, allowing Peloton's customers to find the advantages of group exercise classes in their own homes. Peloton leveraged its connectivity to great advantage several years ago, during the COVID pandemic, and has continued to use it as an important selling point that differentiates it from its competition. Peloton has built a community of 6 million members, making it one of the world's largest interactive fitness platforms, however its recent financial results weren't a particularly strong affair. In the last reported quarter, for fiscal 3Q25, the company saw a 13% year-over-year decline in sales. The revenue hit was strongest in the connected fitness segment, at 27%, but also included a 4% decline in subscription revenue. In total, Peloton's revenue came to $624 million. As noted, that was down 13% YoY – although the figure did beat the forecast by $2.67 million. The company's bottom line came to a net loss; the EPS of ($0.12) missed expectations – by 6 cents per share. The company has recognized the weaknesses and is actively working to address them. In January, Peloton launched its Personalized Plans programs and had enrolled 500,000 members by the end of its fiscal Q3 on March 31. Looking ahead to the end of fiscal year 2025, on June 30, Peloton expects to realize an adjusted EBITDA in the range of $330 million to $350 million and to bring in approximately $250 million in free cash flow. This stock has caught the attention of Truist analyst Youssef Squali, who believes that the headwinds have been priced in and that management will likely succeed in its plans to restart revenue and earnings growth. Squali says of Peloton, 'With the BS cleaned up and Opex materially cut to ensure sustainable FCF profitability, the new leadership is now squarely focused on improving the customer experience to drive revenue growth. Mgmt will guide to FY26 in early August, which is likely to be flattish, implying positive Y/Y revenue growth in 2H26, the first time since 2021. For F4Q25 (ending 6/30), our tracking of the Truist Card Data shows that revenue is tracking virtually in line with consensus (thru 6/9). With subscriptions accounting for ~2/3s of revenue, improving profitability and a valuation at 1.6x & 11.4x sales and AEBITDA, we believe that PTON is virtually de-risked with compelling upside.' Quantifying this stance, Squali rates PTON as a Buy, and his $11 price target points toward a hefty gain of 77% on the one-year horizon. (To watch Squali's track record, click here) Overall, Peloton holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating from Wall Street's analysts, based on 13 recent reviews that break down to 5 Buys and 8 Holds. The stock is currently trading for $6.22 and its $7.86 average price target suggests that the shares will gain 26% in the next 12 months. (See PTON stock forecast) To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks' Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks' equity insights. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment. Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue
Globe and Mail
18-06-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
John De Goey is questioning long-held beliefs within the financial services industry
In the first episode of season two, Brenda speaks with John De Goey, a well-known advisor and author who isn't afraid to question industry norms. John's bold ideas and critical perspective have set him apart from most of his peers in the financial services world. With books like 'The Professional Financial Advisor' and 'Stand Up to the Financial Services Industry,' he pushes for changes that better serve investors. John talks about his upbringing on a southwestern Ontario farm, explains why he thinks advisors paint an overly optimistic picture of the market, and outlines what red flags to look out for when choosing your advisor.
News.com.au
12-06-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Markets are complacent, but volatility is coming
Markets are coasting on a wave of optimism that looks increasingly untethered from reality, writes Nigel Green. With the S&P 500, among other indices, brushing against record highs and tech stocks powering ahead, it would be easy to mistake this rally for resilience. But it's not resilience, it's complacency. This isn't about fearmongering. It's about realism. While equities flash green, warning signs are piling up fast: renewed trade tensions, stubborn inflation risks, ballooning government debt, and a bond market that's growing less patient by the day. Add to that the thin trading volumes of the summer months, where small shifts can trigger outsized moves, and we're staring at the likelihood of a sharp uptick in volatility. Take trade. The US has reignited its protectionist agenda, with fresh tariff threats aimed squarely at China. Talks have stalled, temporary deals remain toothless, tariff levels are still punishing, and supply chains remain under pressure. With rhetoric on both sides remaining pretty much the same, markets are underestimating the risk of another escalation. Unlike previous episodes, this is not a minor skirmish, it's a deepening economic contest between the world's two largest economies. Inflation is another pressure point. Investors are betting that price growth will continue cooling, nudging central banks toward rate cuts. That's a risky assumption. The next round of data could easily surprise to the upside. Labour markets remain tight, and input costs from tariffs and energy are beginning to creep higher. A fresh inflation spike could push rate-cut hopes further into the distance, and valuations would have to adjust accordingly. Also, the bond market is already signalling discomfort. Treasury yields have been climbing, not because of runaway growth, but because of mounting supply. The US is issuing record levels of debt to finance deficits that show no sign of narrowing. Overseas buyers, especially China and Japan, are stepping back. The result is weaker demand, rising yields, and a higher cost of capital rippling across the economy. This isn't the backdrop for a smooth rally in equities. At the same time, corporate America is flashing its own warning lights. Layoffs are accelerating. Major firms across tech, finance, and entertainment have all announced significant job cuts in recent weeks. While markets perversely reward these announcements in the short term — interpreting them as margin-boosting measures — the deeper implication is that companies are preparing for slower growth. The earnings optimism driving stocks upward is, in many cases, built on sand. Yet despite all of this, there's still a strong case for opportunity. Volatility isn't inherently negative. It's disruptive, yes. But it's also the source of market mispricing, and mispricing is what creates the space for outperformance. When consensus gets lazy, as it has now, bold positioning has room to shine. That's especially true in this moment. The convergence of rapid technological progress — particularly in AI, automation, and productivity-enhancing innovations — is starting to reshape the profit potential of entire sectors. These forces are disinflationary over the medium term, even as short-term price pressures remain stubborn. The companies that harness them early will not just weather volatility, they'll emerge stronger. The key is not to flee risk, but to understand it and position intelligently. Passive portfolios anchored to a backward-looking view of the economy are vulnerable. Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes, will matter more than ever. So will exposure to forward-facing megatrends, from clean energy to semiconductors to AI infrastructure. This summer, markets won't drift quietly. With liquidity thinner, every data release and policy signal will carry more weight. Sudden swings are not just possible but likely. But that's precisely what makes this period one of the most promising entry points in recent memory. Those who wait for perfect clarity will miss the window. The exuberance in today's equity markets is not sustainable. It's built on the hope of soft landings, timely rate cuts, and diplomatic breakthroughs. But hope isn't a strategy. The coming months will test the market's assumptions and many won't hold. Yet that doesn't mean retreat is the right move, it means preparation is key. Investors willing to engage with this volatility, not hide from it, are far more likely to capture the upside when it comes. Nigel Green, is the group CEO and founder of deVere Group, an independent global financial consultancy. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interviews in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of Stockhead.
