Latest news with #marketoutlook

Bloomberg

4 days ago

Business
Bloomberg

Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets and CPI

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney July 15th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, and Greg Boutle, Head of US Equity & Derivative Strategy at BNP Paribas, react to CPI and discuss their market and economic outlooks. Stocks advanced in early trading after Nvidia secured US assurances to resume sales of some artificial intelligence chips to China. 2) Alison Williams, Senior Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, wraps this morning's bank earnings. America's biggest banks are heading into earnings season with tailwinds from trading and lending as they benefit from market volatility and steady borrowing costs. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup report today. 3) Huw van Steenis, Vice Chair at Oliver Wyman, joins to talk about how private credit is reshaping portfolios. It comes off the heels of a recent Bloomberg report showing family offices, representing around $3.1 trillion globally, are seeking new sources of returns as private equity distributions slow. According to the 2025 BlackRock Family Office Survey, a third of respondents wanted to increase their allocations to private credit, the highest of any asset class. 4) Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity (formerly Toggle AI), talks about AI growth amid Nvidia's rally and what his company's doing to use AI to help investors. Nvidia plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China after securing Washington's assurances that such shipments would get approved. The move is seen as a "massive win" for Nvidia's Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang, and is also viewed positively by Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee, who says it is "obviously positive" for Nvidia, the AI semiconductor supply chain, and China tech platforms. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on the plunging dollar leaving American travelers with less buying power this summer and a Bloomberg report on Starbucks corporate managers working remotely having to pack their bags and relocate in a year.

Oil prices steady as investors weigh duller market outlook and tariffs' impact

Gulf Business

11-07-2025

Business
Gulf Business

Oil prices steady as investors weigh duller market outlook and tariffs' impact

Image: Getty Images Oil prices were stable on Friday, as investors weighed a weaker market outlook for this year by the Brent crude futures were up 19 cents, or 0.28 per cent, at $68.83 a barrel as of 0807 GMT US West Texas Intermediate crude ticked up 25 cents, or 0.38 per cent, to $66.82 a barrel. Both contracts were little changed on the week, with Brent headed for a 0.8 per cent gain against last Friday's close, and WTI for a 0.3 per cent loss against last Thursday's close as markets were closed on July 4. The IEA on Friday boosted its forecast for supply growth this year, while also trimming its outlook for growth in demand. That notwithstanding, the IEA said peak summer refinery runs to meet travel and power-generation demand were keeping the market tight for now. Front-month September Brent contracts were trading at a $1.11 premium to October futures at 0807 GMT. 'Despite a market-wide expectation of an oil glut at the back end of this year, the current spate of drivers is lacking anything that might send prices back to the lows seen in April and May. Civilians, be they in the air on the road, are showing a healthy willingness to travel,' PVM analyst John Evans said. One other sign of robust prompt oil demand was the prospect of Saudi Arabia shipping about 51 million barrels of crude oil in August to China, the biggest such shipment in over two years. Longer term, however, rival forecasting agency OPEC cut its forecasts for global oil demand in 2026 to 2029 because of slowing Chinese demand, the group said in its 2025 World Oil Outlook published on Thursday. Both benchmark futures contracts lost more than 2 per cent on Thursday as investors worried about the impact of Trump's evolving tariff policy on global economic growth and oil demand. 'Prices have recouped some of this decline after President Trump said he plans to make a 'major' statement on Russia on Monday. This could leave the market nervous over the potential for further sanctions on Russia,' ING analysts wrote in a client note. Trump has expressed frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin due to the lack of progress on peace with Ukraine and Russia's intensifying bombardment of Ukrainian cities. The European Commission is set to propose a floating Russian oil price cap this week as part of a new draft sanctions package.

Why the market is still ‘glass half full' despite risks

Yahoo

01-07-2025

Business
Yahoo

Why the market is still ‘glass half full' despite risks

Markets (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) may still climb the wall of worry, but risks remain. US Bank wealth management senior investment strategist Rob Haworth joins Market Domination Overtime to explain why he sees a 'glass half full' outlook and what could pressure S&P 500 earnings. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. So you say here, Rob, we remain glass half full with our investment outlook. Why, why half full, Rob, walk us through it. Yeah, great to be with you, Josh. I think the the challenge is negative half a percent GDP growth in the first quarter of the year. A lot of that was uh imports. But the challenge is, the consumer is softening a bit and there's some challenges, especially in the lower income cohort that we have to be careful for. So we think this is a market that can still climb this wall of worry, but it's not as robust as it was, right? So we we think we're in middling sort of economic growth scenarios, 1 to 2%, and then you take a look at what that means for S&P 500 S&P 500 earnings, right now consensus is around 7% for full year 2025, 13% for 2026. That may be a little too robust when we think about the economic backdrop that we're facing where the market is really being driven, as we as as was pointed out, there's a a recovery in place. There is a lot of uh hope for more artificial intelligence spending growth, and I think that's been helping to drive the market. There's okay news for the consumer, but but we we think that there are some risks out there that we have to watch and adapt to as we move forward. But we, you know, it's still half full. So we still think this is a constructive environment, just not one that is robust and has many risks. Broadly, Rob, how would you characterize valuations? I'm guessing given what you're telling me here, you you'd say they're a bit stretched. No, definitely within the S&P 500, you're at uh what we sometimes call the high end of fair, right? You're you're on that rich side of valuation and the challenge, I think is uh things need to go exactly right for the market to continue to press ahead. Now, they probably they can, they certainly can. We continue to see good news on artificial intelligence spending, certainly the broadening of this rally into industrials, into financials, into other sectors outside of technology and communication services is extremely constructive. So we think this is a market that can continue. But interestingly, you look around the world, global diversification may pay off just as well. You have cheaper valuations. It's a little maybe easier for them to overcome uh that that downbeat uh current pricing that you have outside the US. So global diversification probably becomes important as we look into the back half of the year. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Associated Press

24-06-2025

Business
Associated Press

KGI: 2025 Mid-Year Market Outlook

Navigating the New Normal HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach Newswire - 24 June 2025 - Today, KGI has released its 2025 Mid-Year Market Outlook. (From left) James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory; James Wey, Head of International Wealth Management at KGI; Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI Looking back over the first half of the year, Trump officially took office as President of the United States and started a trade war. At one point, he even threatened to levy tariffs on China of more than 100%, triggering massive market fluctuations. Since then, many countries have entered negotiations with the U.S., and positive signals have emerged. How will the ongoing tariff war affect global economic development? How will the economic uncertainty created by Trump's policies influence interest rate trends? How will China respond to the increasingly tense trade relationship? And how will China achieve economic growth targets amid external economic instability? Under this backdrop, for the second half of the year, we maintain the 'ACE' strategy： Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI, says: 'In terms of asset allocation, considering the economic and political developments in the second half of the year, investors can continue to follow the ACE strategy: A is Alternatives. The fiscal conditions of multiple governments have sparked controversy, coupled with central banks diversifying asset allocations and geopolitical instability, which will be favorable to gold prices. C is Credit Selection. We expect downside risks to the economy, thus maintaining a preference for quality bonds. Corporate bonds will provide opportunities to lock in yields. E is Elite Stock. Tariff expectations are anticipated to impact corporate earnings; cyclical stocks and defensive stocks can be balanced in the allocation. Outside the United States, focus on countries with minimal tariff impact or those that have already reached agreements.' Macro & U.S. Markets In 2H2025, the global economy will enter a slowdown mode, particularly in emerging markets, with the slowdown being most pronounced in the United States among mature markets. In the first half of the year, U.S. companies stockpiled goods in anticipation of tariff wars, resulting in decent economic performance. However, this situation will not continue into the second half, with GDP growth rates potentially falling below 1%, averaging around 1.35% for the year. The slowdown in the Eurozone and the UK will be less pronounced than in the U.S., but the negative impacts of the trade war cannot be underestimated. The economic outlook for Japan and China is also bleak. In the first half of the year, the U.S. economy shone due to strong demand, but this demand is expected to wane in the second half, leading to weaker economic data. The uncertainty of Trump's policies affects consumer confidence and corporate orders, with labor market data showing a downward trend, further impacting wages and consumption. The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2025 and continue to lower rates by 50 to 75 basis points in 2026. As for U.S. stocks, the likelihood of entering a bear market this year is low, but a decline is possible in the third quarter, with annual profit estimates dropping from 14.1% to below 9%. Investors are advised to focus on defensive and high-quality stocks to weather the economic downturn. In terms of bond investments, the weakening U.S. economy is expected to drive bond yields lower, with Treasury yields projected to fall to 4.0%-4.3% from the latter half of the third quarter to the fourth quarter. It is recommended to invest in higher-quality investment-grade corporate bonds and consider transitioning to non-investment-grade corporate bonds when the economy hits bottom. James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory, says: 'The easing of the trade war has reduced the risk of a U.S. economic recession, but its uncertainty has already affected economic confidence and will put pressure on hard data in the future. The recent rise in the stock market has brought valuations back to high levels. Investors need to be aware of the expiration of the tariff suspension and the subsequent economic and corporate earnings revisions that could bring volatility.' Mainland China and Hong Kong Markets Since early 2025, China's economy has shown marginal improvement amid multiple internal and external factors. In the trade sector, after reaching a 90-day short-term tariff exemption agreement with the United States, market expectations for the full-year GDP growth rate have risen from the initially announced 'Liberation Day' figure of 4.2% to 4.5% following the preliminary agreement; on the other hand, although exports to the U.S. continue to shrink, exports to ASEAN and India have increased significantly, with exporters actively expanding multilateral markets to mitigate external shocks, and the proportion of China's exports to the U.S. continues to decline. Against this backdrop of external challenges, the Chinese government's four economic priorities include: (1) maintaining liquidity in the banking system, (2) boosting consumer confidence, (3) supporting innovation and technology to drive high value-added production strategies, and (4) expanding trade alliances beyond the U.S. China-U.S. relations will continue to play out in a 'periodic tension and relaxation' new normal. Facing U.S. escalating high-tech export controls, China is accelerating the strengthening of domestic supply chains, diversified trade strategies, and independent R&D to promote core technology autonomy and control. The continued growth of gold reserves highlights the value of this safe-haven asset in uncertain environments. Regarding the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index has performed strongly since the beginning of the year, reflecting sustained overseas capital allocation to Chinese assets and rising risk appetite. Overall, in the second half of 2025, China's economy will continue to recover driven by policy support, domestic demand rebound, and manufacturing transformation and upgrading. However, attention should remain on uncertainties such as China-U.S. friction, geopolitical issues, and international demand fluctuations. Hang Seng Index target price in the second half of 2025 is 25,500 points We previously set a target of 23,200 points for the first half of 2025, when the biggest downside risk was Trump's tariff policies. Considering the above factors, we believe the Hong Kong stock market will reflect more positive factors in the second half, which is also reflected in the market's upward revision of earnings per share estimates for the Hang Seng Index. We raise this year's Hang Seng Index target price to 25,500 points, corresponding to an estimated price-earnings ratio of about 11 times, with potential growth of 6.3% in the second half (as of June 17, 2025), and a total annual increase of 27.5%. In terms of sectors, we are optimistic on industry, Internet, raw materials, telecommunications, healthcare and utilities, including 13 selected stocks. Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI, says: 'Overall, in the second half of 2025, China's economy will continue to recover driven by policy support, domestic demand rebound, and manufacturing transformation and upgrading. However, attention should remain on uncertainties such as China-U.S. friction, geopolitical issues, and international demand fluctuations. The Hang Seng Index year end target is at 25,500 points, with a positive outlook on 6 sectors and 13 stock picks.' Taiwan Market Trump's erratic tariff policies have caused significant volatility in the Taiwan stock market during the first half of the year. However, with the recent easing of the trade war and stable short-term AI demand, the Taiwan stock market has seen some recovery. Looking ahead, we believe the negative impact of the trade war will gradually become evident, potentially leading to downward adjustments in the Taiwan stock market before the third quarter. Nonetheless, a moderate correction could help stabilize the market in the fourth quarter. Despite the temporary agreement between the U.S. and China, high tariffs continue to affect economic growth and inflation pressures. Given the close economic ties between Taiwan and the U.S., tariff impacts could lower Taiwan stock market profits. If adverse factors can be absorbed in the third quarter, the market is likely to stabilize in the fourth quarter, with AI demand remaining a crucial support for the Taiwan stock market. James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory, says: 'The demand for AI in the short term remains stable, supporting a continued rebound in the stock market. However, the trade war and exchange rate impacts have increased the uncertainty of corporate earnings. Early stockpiling has made the normally slow season in the first half of the year less sluggish for the Taiwanese stock market, but it may lead to a less prosperous peak season in the second half of the year.' Singapore Market In 2H25, Singapore's economy is expected to experience cautious growth due to global trade uncertainties and a challenging external environment. While sectors like wholesale trade, manufacturing, finance, and insurance provide some support, geopolitical tensions and protectionism weigh on sentiment. Inflation remains manageable, but the labor market shows signs of strain. Trade activity, boosted recently by tariff suspensions, is expected to moderate. Looking ahead, growth is influenced by external factors such as U.S. trade policies and China's recovery. The government has revised growth expectations downward, but strengths in electronics and financial services persist. Strategic investments in AI, digitalization, and green technologies aim to future-proof the economy. Risks remain from potential trade conflicts and weakening global demand. Domestic measures to boost innovation and stabilize the property market are anticipated to support growth, though challenges for businesses and households may arise. Overall, Singapore's economy is positioned to remain steady with limited near-term upside. Chen Guangzhi, Head of Research at KGI Singapore, says: 'Amid increasing global macroeconomic uncertainties, Singapore will further underscore its strengths in political and economic stability. Therefore, we remain cautiously upbeat about the outlook in 2H25.' Hashtag: #KGI #MarketOutlook Wechat: KGI 凯基 The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. About KGI KGI*has been a leading financial institution in Asia since 1997. Our scope of business encompasses wealth management, brokerage, fixed income, and asset management. We are committed to offering a comprehensive range of financial products and services to corporate, institutional, and individual clients throughout Asia. Backed by KGI Financial Group, we have a robust footprint in Asia, covering Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand^. *KGI refers to KGI Asia Limited and its affiliates. ^an investee enterprise of KGI Securities, not a subsidiary.

Oil Could Hit $60 by End of Year: Goldman's Oppenheimer