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Zawya
07-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Stocks and dollar subdued as US shifts tariff goalposts
Stocks drifted and the U.S. dollar held near multi-year lows on Monday, in market uncertainty after U.S. officials flagged a delay on tariffs but failed to provide specifics on the changes. The United States is close to finalising several trade agreements in the coming days and will notify other countries of higher tariff rates by July 9, President Donald Trump said on Sunday, with the higher rates to take effect on August 1. "President Trump's going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners saying that if you don't move things along, then on August 1 you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN. Trump in April announced a 10% base tariff rate on most countries and higher "reciprocal" rates ranging up to 50%, with an original deadline of this Wednesday. However, he also said levies could range in value from "maybe 60% or 70%", and threatened an extra 10% on countries aligning themselves with the "Anti-American policies" of the BRICS group of Brazil, Russia, India and China. With very few actual trade deals done, analysts had always suspected the date would be pushed out, though it was still not clear if the new deadline applied to all trading partners or just some of them. Investors have grown somewhat used to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the initial market reaction was cautious. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% and Nasdaq futures were down 0.45% in early European trading hours. Europe's benchmark STOXX index rose 0.3% while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.5%. The muted market reaction to the latest tariff twist showed that investors were becoming more attuned to the cycle of dramatic lurches in U.S. trade policy under Trump, analysts said. "The market now feels as if it has a handle on which countries or types of products will be most affected," said Scott Chronert, investment strategist for Citigroup. "That doesn't mean every scenario is priced in – it's still set up for episodes of volatility. As always, people will sell first and ask questions later." OPEC+ SQUEEZE SHRUGGED OFF Safe-haven bonds were better bid, with 10-year Treasury yields down almost 2 basis points at 4.3379%. Major currencies were mixed as the dollar index nudged up 0.4% to 97.292. The euro held at $1.1726, just short of last week's top of $1.1830, while the dollar was 0.5% firmer at 145.38 yen. The export-exposed Australian dollar was again used as a proxy for trade risk and fell 0.8% to $0.6500. The U.S. dollar has been undermined by investor concerns about Trump's often chaotic tariff policy and what that might do to economic growth and inflation. The same worries have kept the U.S. Federal Reserve from cutting rates and minutes of its last meeting should offer more colour on when the majority of members might resume easing. It is a relatively quiet week for Fed speakers, with only two district presidents on the docket, while economic data is also sparse. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut its rates by a quarter point to 3.60% at a meeting on Tuesday, the third easing this cycle, and markets imply an eventual destination for rates of 2.85% or 3.10%. New Zealand's central bank meets on Wednesday and is likely to hold rates at 3.25%, having already slashed by 225 basis points over the past year. In commodity markets, gold slipped 0.9% to $3,303 an ounce , though it did gain almost 2% last week as the dollar fell. Oil prices shrugged off the impact of output hikes from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+. Brent reversed earlier losses, and was up 0.7% to $68.77 a barrel, while U.S. crude recovered 0.1% to $67.08 per barrel. (Reporting by Lawrence White in London and Wayne Cole in Sydney, additional reporting by Suzanne McGee in New York; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Aidan Lewis and Rachna Uppal)
Yahoo
07-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Misfiring Models Leave Wall Street Currency Traders Flying Blind
(Bloomberg) -- Some of Wall Street's tried-and-true currency strategies aren't working anymore, and it's baffling even the most seasoned traders. Trump's Gilded Design Style May Be Gaudy. But Don't Call it 'Rococo.' Foreign Buyers Swoop on Cape Town Homes, Pricing Out Locals Are Tourists Ruining Europe? How Locals Are Pushing Back Massachusetts to Follow NYC in Making Landlords Pay Broker Fees NYC Commutes Resume After Midtown Bus Terminal Crash Chaos Before President Donald Trump's policies sent the dollar plunging, investors could reliably use a number of indicators to figure out how to trade. Europe cuts interest rates? Sell euros. Markets look jittery? Buy dollars. Oil prices spike? Time to snap up currencies from commodity exporters. But now, those signals are misfiring more frequently. Traders at UBS Group AG and Mizuho International Plc, say the models they used to count on getting it right are instead getting it wrong. And the new forces driving currency markets, like the broad shift of money out of the US and foreign investors buying dollar hedges, are hard to track because the data is sparse, making it tough for professionals to adjust their systems. As a result, they're running smaller and simpler trades. 'Rules of thumb have kind of gone out of the window,' said Lu Xin, a currency derivatives trader at UBS. 'Everyone has come to accept that more uncertainty is the new norm.' Xin says he's being cautious when it comes to risk and that his trading strategies are stricter. 'People are more afraid to be short options going into weekends,' he added. At Mizuho, the confusion has become something of a running joke on the desk. Jordan Rochester says his colleague, options trader Nikhil Kochhar, was shouting 'Why!?' to puzzling market swings so often that he gifted him a custom baseball cap with that tagline. 'What will happen in one or two months time is someone will tap us on the shoulder and say, 'Why weren't you short more dollars? It was obvious,'' said Rochester. 'It wasn't obvious.' It all shows how experts have been blindsided by the dollar's selloff and are now questioning whether the past few months will go down as a chaotic but short-lived adjustment or the start of a harder-to-navigate era. With Trump's threatening to start imposing tariffs on dozens of countries in the coming days, a fresh round of volatility could be in store for markets this week. Plenty of investors are already paying the price for ill-timed bets. A BarclayHedge index of 25 currency programs that trade futures and cash forwards has returned just 0.6% this year. If that sticks on an annual basis, it would be the most dismal performance since 2017. With the benefit of hindsight, there have been clear reasons behind currency moves. The biggest driver being Trump's aggressive agenda of tax cuts and tariffs that sent the dollar down more than 10% against the euro and Swiss franc this year. Plus, it's not unusual for markets to shift from one focus to another. Trump Is Driving Off Investors and Imperiling Dollar's Reign But traders say that the speed and severity with which it all unfolded this year surprised them, and it's increasingly expensive to hedge swings in a market that's the most volatile that they've seen in years. Idanna Appio at First Eagle Investments is one of those investors wary of trusting her models. It's currently sending a signal that she should be neutral on the dollar, partly because the US has higher interest rates than many other countries. But her instincts tell her that's the wrong call, so she's choosing to stay short the greenback versus the euro and the yen. 'Interest-rate differentials worked well for an extended period of time,' she said. 'Now there's something else going on.' What Bloomberg Strategists Say 'When big structural shifts hit FX, old correlations don't just break — they mutate. The market is leaning hard into the de-dollarization narrative, underpinned by the belief that the US administration wants a weaker currency. In this environment, when flows talk, everything else walks.' —Vassilis Karamanis, FX strategist, Athens Take the dollar and euro. In June, the European Central Bank cut borrowing costs for the eighth time in this cycle, bringing the deposit rate to 2%. While in the US, the Federal Reserve last chose to hold in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. All else being equal, that would argue for a strong dollar and weak euro. The opposite has happened, with the euro surging 13% this year to a four-year high. That's starting to ring alarm bells for Brad Bechtel, global head of FX sales and trading at Jefferies LLC. He warns there will eventually be a snap back in the dollar to bring it in line with interest-rate trends. 'Whatever the driver, it's pushing things to the extreme because it's not impacting central bank policy or growth expectations,' he said. 'Something's off.' Part of the difficulty is that the link between asset prices has shifted in some unusual ways. In the case of the dollar, it has a tendency to move in the opposite direction to the VIX Index, meaning it may fall when investors are fearful, instead of rising alongside other safe havens. That played out to some extent in how the dollar has responded to the conflict in the Middle East. While previously, traders could count on a spike in oil and the dollar when tensions rose in the region, it's not as easy to predict as it used to be. For instance, on June 23, oil prices swung wildly in the aftermath of Iran's attack at a US air base in Qatar. Brent surged past $81 a barrel and touched the highest level since January, before sharply retreating as the strikes were viewed to be largely symbolic. In contrast, the moves in the dollar on that day were smaller than might be expected. 'When the correlations break down, it makes it very, very hard,' said Kochhar, the currency trader at Mizuho. 'In an event like when the Israel-Iran war started, now you wonder whether that's going to lead to a dollar bid or a dollar selloff.' --With assistance from Vassilis Karamanis and Alex Nicholson. For Brazil's Criminals, Coffee Beans Are the Target Sperm Freezing Is a New Hot Market for Startups SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Globe and Mail
07-07-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Zacks.com featured highlights Disney, Agnico Eagle Mines, Adobe and Xylem
For Immediate Release Chicago, IL – July 7, 2025 – The stocks in this week's article are The Walt Disney Co. DIS, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM, Adobe Inc. ADBE and Xylem Inc. XYL. Buy These 4 Stocks with Solid Sales Growth Amid Market Uncertainty Markets began 2025 on a strong note but have since been gripped by heightened volatility due to the Trump administration's tariff plans and geopolitical headwinds, which have resulted in uncertainty. The ambiguity has clouded expectations around the tariffs' potential impact on the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Hence, investors are approaching the markets with increased caution. So, the conventional method of selecting stocks is the need of the hour. One such way is choosing stocks with steady sales growth. In this regard, The Walt Disney Co., Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Adobe Inc. and Xylem Inc. are worth considering. When evaluating a company, investors often prioritize revenue over earnings, as growing sales indicate an expanding customer base and long-term potential. In contrast, stagnant or declining revenue can signal deeper operational challenges. While short-term profits can be achieved through cost-cutting, sustained earnings growth typically depends on consistent top-line expansion. However, revenue growth alone doesn't paint a complete picture of financial health. A more effective investment strategy involves analyzing a company's cash position alongside its sales. Strong cash reserves and healthy cash flow offer the flexibility to navigate challenges, invest in growth opportunities and maintain operational stability. 4 Stocks with Robust Sales Growth to Bet On Burbank, CA-based Disney has assets that span movies, television shows and theme parks. DIS operates through three segments: Entertainment, Sports and Experiences. Disney's expected sales growth rate for 2025 is 4.1%. DIS carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. Agnico Eagle Mines, headquartered in Canada, is a gold producer. AEM has mining operations in Canada, Mexico and Finland, and exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America and the United States. Agnico Eagle Mines' expected sales growth rate for 2025 is 24.6%. AEM currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. Adobe, based in San Jose, CA, is a leading technology company. ADBE provides a personalized digital experience by integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into its solutions. Adobe's sales are expected to rise 9.5% in fiscal 2025. INTU carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. Washington, D.C.-based Xylem is one of the leading providers of water solutions worldwide. XYL is involved in the full water-process cycle, including collection, distribution and returning of water to the environment. Xylem's expected sales growth for 2025 is 2.2%. XYL, at present, carries a Zacks Rank #2. Get the remaining stock on the list and start putting this and other ideas to the test. It can all be done with the Research Wizard stock picking and backtesting software. The Research Wizard is a great place to begin. It's easy to use. Everything is in plain language. And it's very intuitive. Start your Research Wizard trial today. And the next time you read an economic report, open up the Research Wizard, plug your finds in, and see what gems come out. Click here to sign up for a free trial of the Research Wizard today. For the rest of this Screen of the Week article please visit at: Follow us on Twitter: Join us on Facebook: Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates. Contact: Jim Giaquinto Company: Phone: 312-265-9268 Email: pr@ Visit: provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release. Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and Sells We're not kidding. Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent. Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators, and more, that closed 256 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2024 alone. See Stocks Now >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Free Stock Analysis Report Adobe Inc. (ADBE): Free Stock Analysis Report Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): Free Stock Analysis Report Xylem Inc. (XYL): Free Stock Analysis Report
Bloomberg
02-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance: Tax Bill and Markets
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney July 2nd, 2025 Featuring: 1) Jim Caron, CIO: Cross Asset Solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, talks about market uncertainty and the underappreciated upside risk to equities. US equity futures held firm ahead of the June payrolls report and trade talks developments. Markets await the monthly payrolls report, which will offer fresh insight into the labor market and the path of interest rates, with US Treasuries retreating across the curve 2) Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, reacts to Tesla sales. The company's shares rose 23% in the last quarter despite the expected sales decline, but have since fallen amid a feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. 3) Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, talk about how President Trump's tax legislation would affect the US debt and deficit. Moderate and ultra-conservative GOP lawmakers have pushed for changes to the bill, citing concerns over Medicaid cuts, spending reductions, and the scale of the tax bill, with some vowing to oppose the bill in its current form. 4) John Gimigliano, Principal and head of the Federal Legislative and Regulatory Services Group at KPMG, on why the tax bill is no slam dunk as it heads back to the House, and who are the winners and losers in the bill. House Speaker Mike Johnson can only afford to lose three Republican votes, and with unified Democratic opposition, the bill's passage is uncertain, despite Trump's public pressure on Republicans to back the bill. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ on food makers rolling out lower prices and smaller package sizes, as well as an NYT story on whether someone is "cool."
Yahoo
28-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Even as markets rally, Trump's policymaking causes market angst
By Suzanne McGee (Reuters) -As Wall Street puts April's tariff shakeout in the rearview mirror and indexes set record highs, investors remain wary of U.S. President Donald Trump's rapid-fire, sometimes chaotic policymaking process and see the rally as fragile. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite index advanced past their previous highs into uncharted territory on Friday. Yet traders and investors remain wary of what may lie ahead. Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners roiled global financial markets and put the S&P 500 on the threshold of a bear market designation when it ended down 19% from its February 19 record-high close. This week's leg up came after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran brought an end to a 12-day air battle that had sparked a jump in crude prices and raised worries of higher inflation. But a relief rally started after Trump responded to the initial tariff panic that gripped financial markets by backing away from his most draconian plans. JP Morgan Chase, in the midyear outlook published on Wednesday by its global research team, said the environment was characterized by "extreme policy uncertainty." "Nobody wants to end a week with a risk-on tilt to their portfolios," said Art Hogan, market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. "Everyone is aware that just as the market feels more certain and confident, a single wildcard policy announcement could change everything," even if it does not ignite a firestorm of the kind seen in April. Part of this wariness from institutional investors may be due to the magnitude of the 6% S&P 500 rally that followed Trump's re-election last November and culminated in the last new high posted by the index in February, said Joseph Quinlan, market strategist at Bank of America. "We were out ahead of our skis," Quinlan said. A focus on deregulation, tax cuts and corporate deals brought out the "animal spirits," he said. Then came the tariff battles. Quinlan remains upbeat on the outlook for U.S. stocks and optimistic that a new global trade system could lead to U.S. companies opening new markets and posting higher revenues and profits. But he said he is still cautious. "There will still be spikes of volatility around policy unknowns." Overall, measures of market volatility are now well below where they stood at the height of the tariff turmoil in April, with the CBOE VIX index now at 16.3, down from a 52.3 peak on April 8. UNSTABLE MARKETS "Our clients seem to have become somewhat desensitized to the headlines, but it's still an unhealthy market, with everyone aware that trading could happen based on the whims behind a bunch of" social media posts, said Jeff O'Connor, head of market structure, Americas, at Liquidnet, an institutional trading platform. Trading in the options market shows little sign of the kind of euphoria that characterized stock market rallies of the recent past. "On the institutional front, we do see a lot of hesitation in chasing the market rally," Stefano Pascale, head of U.S. equity derivatives research at Barclays, said. Unlike past episodes of sharp market selloffs, institutional investors have largely stayed away from employing bullish call options to chase the market higher, Pascale said, referring to plain options that confer the right to buy at a specified future price and date. Bid/ask spreads on many stocks are well above levels O'Connor witnessed in late 2024, while market depth - a measure of the size and number of potential orders - remains at the lowest levels he can recall in the last 20 years. "The best way to describe the markets in the last couple of months, even as they have recovered, is to say they are unstable," said Liz Ann Sonders, market strategist at Charles Schwab. She said she is concerned that the market may be reaching "another point of complacency" akin to that seen in March. "There's a possibility that we'll be primed for another downside move," Sonders addded. Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital in Washington, said he came up with the term "Snapchat presidency" to describe the whiplash effect on markets of the president's constantly changing policies on markets. "He feels more like a day trader than a long-term institutional investor," Spindel said, alluding to Trump's policy flip-flops. "One minute he's not going to negotiate, and the next he negotiates." To be sure, traders seem to view those rapid shifts in course as a positive in the current rally, signaling Trump's willingness to heed market signals. "For now, at least, stocks are willing to overlook the risks that go along with this style and lack of consistent policies, and give the administration a break as being 'market friendly'," said Steve Sosnick, market strategist at Interactive Brokers. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
