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Forbes
an hour ago
- Climate
- Forbes
5 Questions You Shouldn't Ask Meteorologists And The Reasons Why
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND - JULY 01: A pedestrian crosses in the intersection of Queen Street and ... More Victoria Street during heavy rain on July 1, 2014 in Auckland, New Zealand. Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to move over the region in a wet and cold start to July. (Photo by) Meteorologists are likely the only scientists the public routinely experiences in their daily routine. My colleagues are seen on television and increasingly through social media interactions. While younger generations mainly rely on weather apps these days (more on that later), many older adults still have a weather personality whom they rely on for daily information or in threatening weather situations. During my three decades in the meteorology field, I have noticed a set of recurring questions and some new ones in recent years. I woke up this morning and decided to have a little fun. Here are five questions you should not ask a meteorologist. Is It Going To Rain At My House? I was prompted to write this article after seeing a post from meteorologist Chris Jackson essentially apologizing that he could not respond to every specific query on his Facebook page. I have noticed this tendency over the years as well after posting general information to friends and followers about an approaching storm system, hurricane, or snow scenario. For example, I might post, 'There is a squall line approaching the Atlanta area. Expect a heavy rainfall and lightning in the next 30 minutes followed by a sustained period of lighter rainfall.' Within minutes, I will receive a comments, direct messages, or texts asking if it is going to rain at a specific location or what specific time. Most of my colleagues are passionate and courteous people so will often try to respond to as many questions as possible. That's probably why so many meteorologists have large, loyal followings. It is tough situation because meteorologists like Chris Jackson and James Spann reach thousands of people daily, but it is unrealistic to expect them to be able to respond to specific questions. A 2021 study in the journal Nature Communications explored why people seek information. They found that people assess what they will learn from the information and then determine potential impacts of the information cognition or actions. I get it. You want localized information from your meteorological sources to make decisions or out of curiosity. Just remember that thousands of other people do to. The hurricane cone of uncertainty continues to evolve. Why Are Meteorologists Always Wrong? I have dealt with this question a lot over the years. I have written numerous articles articulating that weather forecasts are actually quite good. What I have noticed is that expectations, perceptions, or misunderstanding often leads to 'the weather people are always wrong' narrative. Here are 3 scenarios many people might conclude are bad forecasts that are actually not: PARKERSBURG, IA - MAY 26: A high school sits destroyed by a tornado May 26, 2008 in Parkersburg, ... More Iowa. Several storms throughout the Midwest produced tornadoes in Iowa and Minnesota Sunday. (Photo by) People can exhibit 'local' bias when evaluating weather information. I occasionally notice 'recency' and 'impact' bias too. Most forecasts are right, but if a planned birthday cookout or soccer game is rained out due to a bad forecast (they do happen), broad conclusions are drawn. It's like saying a kicker who made 98% of his field goals during the season is bad because he missed the big one in the bowl game. Which App Do You Use? I actually find this one to be amusing. My gut instinct is to react by saying, 'That's like asking your medical doctor which website she goes to for medical advice.' However, I usually smile and say that I tend to look at the model information, weather observations, and data to draw my own conclusions. Of course, there are certain radar or observational apps that I use and will often share them too. Apps are popular because they are convenient. We live on our phones. They also quench people's local bias thirst with immediate information with little sun emojis or messages like, 'It's going to start raining in 10 minutes.' Some apps are better than others, but I would never recommend them as a sole source of information, especially in rapidly evolving or dangerous weather situations. I have documented four common mistakes people make when using weather apps: The ship has definitely sailed on the presence of weather apps in our daily lives so just make sure you are aware of how you use them. My Daughter Is Having An Outdoor Wedding Reception In 3 Months. Will It Rain? Ummmm. Yikes. You'd be surprised at how often we get questions like this. Weather forecasts are made by solving complex equations in numerical prediction models. Data is input into the models to resolve the atmospheric fluid and its changes. It is one of the more difficult computational problems out there. Studies show that current model accuracy degrades beyond about 10 days or so. That should cause you to pause when you see 'social mediarologists' posting single model run, long-range snow or hurricane forecasts for 'likes' and 'shares.' We are also seeing the emergence of AI models, which uses a very different paradigm than the current generation of weather models. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center does produce weekly, monthly and seasonal outlooks based on things like the presence of La Nina or El Nino. However, you will not find a credible 90-day forecast for a specific day. Climatological information, however, can certainly be used as guidance. For example, our recent family cruise was planned for early June for a reason. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is later in the summer. Do You Believe In Climate Change? Science isn't a believe system like the tooth fairy or Santa. When I hear that question, it is like asking if you believe in gravity as you walk along the ledge of a skyscraper. Yes, climate changes naturally, but there is human steroid on top of it now. Studies also show that some aspects of our weather today are now affected. Seasonal precipitation Outlook.
CTV News
5 hours ago
- Climate
- CTV News
Dreary Saturday morning before sunshine in the afternoon
CTV London Meteorologist Julie Atchison says after cloudy skies and rainfall Saturday morning, the sun will pop out in the afternoon. Cloudy conditions with scattered showers to start Saturday. 'We had a cold front to come through and with it some active weather, scattered showers and thunderstorms in advance today,' said CTV London Meteorologist Julie Atchison. 'Things will calm down, quieter conditions across the region, and we'll be breaking into a nice mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon.' Warmer, sunnier conditions expected Sunday before showers return Monday. 'Another warm, humid air mass will be moving back in and as the warm air comes in, the humidity will start to rise as we look toward Canada day,' Here's a look at the rest of the forecast Saturday: Mainly cloudy. 40 per cent chance of showers in the morning. Wind southwest 20 km/h becoming northwest 20 early in the afternoon. High 26. Humidex 32. Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind northwest 20 km/h becoming light in the evening. Low 12. Sunday: Sunny. High 29. Monday: Cloudy with 60 per cent chance of showers. High 30. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with 40 per cent chance of showers. High 27. Wednesday: Sunny. High 28.
CBS News
13 hours ago
- Climate
- CBS News
Storms could bring damaging winds to Tri-State Area on Saturday. Get the First Alert Weather Day forecast.
Saturday will be a First Alert Weather Day across the Tri-State Area due to the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Clouds and well below average temperatures dominated Friday's weather, but a return to more summerlike conditions is on the horizon. Friday night, a few showers are possible, especially towards dawn. Otherwise, clouds will remain in place, while lows drop into the mid and upper 60s. Maps show severe thunderstorm risk this weekend Some lingering showers are likely for Saturday morning, before the sun returns by the afternoon. CBS News New York During that period of sunshine, temperatures will rise significantly, reaching the mid to upper 80s, along with tropical levels of humidity surging back in. Besides elevating temperatures, the sun will also assist in destabilizing the atmosphere. CBS News New York This in turn will lead to the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms from the late afternoon through the late evening hours. Hazards associated with these storms would be damaging winds, torrential downpours and hail. Of greatest concern would be the threat of damaging winds. CBS News New York Storms should be out of the region by around 11 p.m. In their wake, humidity levels will decrease, setting us up for a sunny and warm Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
CBS News
a day ago
- Climate
- CBS News
After five straight days of 90-degree weather, Pittsburgh begins to see a slight cool down
Today should look similar to what it looked like yesterday, with a lot of dry time but storm chances returning for the afternoon. WEATHER LINKS: Current Conditions | School Closings & Delays | Submit Your Weather Photos I expect storms to develop off of what are known as "outflow boundaries" once again today. These boundaries are ripples in the atmosphere that lift conditionally stable air just enough to kick off storms. Storms develop due to hot and humid air being "buoyant" and lifting. Sometimes this buoyant air is trapped at the surface by a layer of stable air. These outflow boundaries give this air the 'lift' it needs to break through the stable layer, and that's when storms develop. Back to the outflows, they give the storm every lift or punch to get through the stable layer of air and turn into storms. When that happens, storms develop, and if conditions are there, severe storms and downpours can happen. Excessive rain risk for western Pennsylvania KDKA Weather Center Rain chances both this morning and early in the afternoon should keep highs in the 80s today and not the 90s. Morning temperatures remain in the low 70s, and today will be the sixth day in a row with temperatures remaining above 70° in Pittsburgh. I have noon temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds should be light today, coming in out of the south. Looking ahead, we should see some rain on Saturday too. Rain totals expected through early Saturday morning KDKA Weather Center Right now, model data is showing less rain & storms tomorrow than today, but this has been what model data has done over the past couple of days. Data has consistently underplayed instability coming into each day until the last moment, and then on later runs shows correctly the instability driving storms. Saturday is included under a level one out of four risk of flash flooding. That may get bumped up, depending on what is expected along with what falls today. We finally see temperatures dip below 70 degrees in Pittsburgh late Saturday or Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday should hit the upper 80s. Another round of rain and storms will be around on Monday with highs in the mid-80s. While rain chances appear low Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, with highs each day in the mid-80s. 7-day forecast: June 27, 2025 KDKA Weather Center Stay up to date with the KDKA Mobile App – which you can download here!
CBS News
a day ago
- Climate
- CBS News
Temperatures cool off Friday in Philadelphia before a hot weekend with storms possible. Here's the forecast.
Major change has arrived in the Philadelphia area. The first official heat wave of the season is over … and in a major way! Temperatures on Friday will stay in the mid to low 70s for highs — yes, the SEVENTIES!! A welcome change for many, I'm sure. CBS News Philadelphia It will certainly be nice for our wallets, as we can give the air conditioning a break for a day or so. The clouds and showers will last for just one day as more seasonably warm summer weather returns for the weekend, although the pattern will remain quite unstable with passing showers and storms possible each day. CBS News Philadelphia Humidity levels will also bounce back up with dewpoints in the 70s again, meaning the pea-soup conditions will be back with us, though the upper 90s and low 100s will not! Next week we have a brief dry break on Monday before more summer instability returns. Enjoy! Here's your 7-day forecast: CBS News Philadelphia Friday: Cool, a shower. High 73, Low 66. Saturday: P.m. thunderstorms. High 87, Low 68. Sunday: Back to 90. High 90, Low 74. Monday: P.m. thunderstorm. High 92, Low 73. Tuesday: July starts with storms. High 89, Low 76. Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 89, Low 72. Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 87, Low 68. NEXT Weather Radars Hourly Forecast
