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Why Congo and Rwanda Agreed to End Three Decades of War
Why Congo and Rwanda Agreed to End Three Decades of War

Bloomberg

time8 hours ago

  • Politics
  • Bloomberg

Why Congo and Rwanda Agreed to End Three Decades of War

Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda have agreed to bring an end to conflict in eastern Congo, where millions of people have died and multitudes have been displaced over the past three decades. A US-brokered accord signed in Washington on June 27 commits the two central African nations to stop fighting, halt their use of armed proxies and work together to develop the natural resources that lie along their shared border. There is well-founded skepticism over whether the truce will last. Distrust between the two long-standing foes runs deep and it's unclear whether their forces and a multitude of militias will heed instructions to lay down their weapons. More than 100 groups are engaged in ethnic disputes or fights over land, minerals and political representation in eastern Congo.

Why powerful pro-Tehran militias in Iraq stayed quiet amid Iran conflict
Why powerful pro-Tehran militias in Iraq stayed quiet amid Iran conflict

Washington Post

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • Washington Post

Why powerful pro-Tehran militias in Iraq stayed quiet amid Iran conflict

When U.S. forces struck three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, concern rippled through the population of neighboring Iraq, where pro-Iranian militias wield much influence and the majority of the people, like in Iran, are Shiite Muslims. The prospect for retaliation in Iraq against the U.S. briefly loomed. Nowhere else in the Arab world do American and Iranian interests exist in such close proximity, with several thousand U.S. soldiers stationed on a string of military bases across the country and Iran supporting a range of political and armed forces that wield power on the ground. But those Iraqi militias have proved to be conspicuously quiet. These groups have been shaped by previous struggles for influence in Iraq between the U.S. and Iran, emerging warier of involvement in external conflict and more independent of external backers. The Iran-linked militias have also become central players in the Iraqi government, earning billions of dollars from state coffers, operating extensive business networks and holding more power than ever before. There is much at stake if these groups become a target, Middle East analysts say. 'These groups have become so integrated into the Iraqi state in one way or another, whether it's through business dealings, whether it is through politics. Why would these people give up on that?' asked Lahib Higel, Crisis Group's senior analyst for Iraq. Tensions may reach a point where the groups turn to violence, she said, 'but these groups are going to stay quiet for as long as they can.' The militias in Iraq have long been an important part of Iran's sprawling network across the region of allies and proxy forces, which also include Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. That formidable network was built by General Qasem Soleimani, who ran Iran's Quds Force, the division of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for external operations, and whom President Donald Trump had assassinated in January 2020 in Baghdad. Unlike Hezbollah and the Houthis, Iraq's militias had already learned the lessons of direct confrontation with the U.S., experts say. The top Iraqi militia leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was killed in the same drone strike as Soleimani, forcing other senior leaders into hiding as Iran and the U.S. traded ballistic missiles and airstrikes on Iraqi soil. Over the following years, the Iraqi militias adapted from top-down, Iranian-driven groups to ones with greater autonomy. 'The assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis removed a strong lever of control and influence that Iran had over several of these groups,' said Sajad Jiyad, a fellow at the New York-based Century International. 'Not having that Godfather figure has meant that these groups have charted their own path.' Iraq's official network of militia factions, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, dates back to 2014, when tens of thousands of men across the mostly Shiite south answered calls from Iraq's prime minister and Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the country's top Shiite religious authority, to join the fight against Islamic State militants. Today, the groups are marbled through Iraq's ruling institutions and have become economic powerhouses and political enforcers of the political regime. Middle East analysts and Iraqi officials say Iraq has remained mostly aloof from the conflict pitting Israel and the U.S. against Iran because of shared interests between the armed groups and their Iranian backers. After the U.S. bombers transiting Iraqi airspace struck Iran's nuclear facilities, Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia that has previously targeted U.S. troops, issued only a muted statement, noting that Iraq's inability to control its airspace made the country vulnerable. 'The American forces in Iraq paved the way for this assault by opening Iraqi airspace,' the group said. 'If it is said that we do not want Iraq to be a battleground, then it is incumbent upon us to restrain the role of foreign forces present on Iraqi soil and controlling its skies.' Iraq's military said the following day that a swarm of small drones had targeted six army bases but reached only two, causing damage to radar systems at Camp Taji, north of Baghdad, and the Imam Ali base in Dhi Qar governorate, but no casualties. No U.S. forces were present at either one. The Iraqi army said in a statement that Prime Minister Mohammed Shiite al-Sudani had ordered an investigation into the incident, without ascribing blame to any group. The militias' tempered response reflects their desire not to be dragged into the sort of conflict that left Hezbollah eviscerated in Lebanon, said Higel. 'They don't want to face the same fate,' she said. 'However much they support Iran in rhetoric, we've seen the fissures. They had already started when Soleimani was killed, but they've really accelerated after the 7th of October' attacks in Israel. If their standing took a blow, it could put in jeopardy about $3.5 billion allocated in the Iraqi budget, according to the finance ministry, to pay militia salaries and provide other forms of support. Iran, similarly, benefits from the quiet next door. 'Iraq has remained outside the conflict primarily due to Iran's desire to keep it that way,' said a senior Iraqi official who, like some others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject. 'They understand that Iraq's stability is extremely important to their national security and also to their economic situation.' As Western governments have sought to isolate Iran with sanctions, Iraq has become its economic lung. Iraq is not only a major trading partner, but Iran has used Iraqi currency exchanges to transfer money and Iraqi ports to mix and rebrand sanctioned oil products, according to researchers at the Chatham House international affairs think tank, providing Tehran with precious access to the international economy. Iraq has also provided safe haven to other Iran-backed groups as they come under fire, the researchers found. After Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah in September, dozens of senior Hezbollah business figures traveled to Iraq, where the group had made significant financial investments. Jiyad, of Century International, said the pro-Iran armed groups are likely to remain on the sidelines for now. 'It may be that the Iranians see that as an option to deploy later,' he said. 'I think the Iranians are not trying to play all their cards at once.' Likewise, the senior Iraqi official said, these groups 'are Iran's last card.' An official with the pro-Iran Asaib al-Haq group, which has a role in the Iraqi government, said Iraq's armed factions remained braced in 'watchful anticipation.' This official said, 'We do not wish to be dragged into the war, although the resistance factions are ready to respond. … This will, however, depend on the course of events and the impact on our country.'

Israel-Iran live: Trump ordered Netanyahu to turn IDF jets around in call to salvage ceasefire
Israel-Iran live: Trump ordered Netanyahu to turn IDF jets around in call to salvage ceasefire

Sky News

time4 days ago

  • Politics
  • Sky News

Israel-Iran live: Trump ordered Netanyahu to turn IDF jets around in call to salvage ceasefire

Analysis: Considerable fear in Iraq that moves to peace could unravel By Stuart Ramsay, chief correspondent Iraqi militia closely allied with Iran are being blamed for a series of drone attacks on military bases in the country overnight. Amongst the bases targeted was the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq's western Anbar province, where the Americans have a presence, although now a major base for Iraqi military as well. Ain al-Asad was the second biggest base in Iraq after the second Gulf War, a base I have visited many times with American forces. It is still home to 1500 US personnel. An Iraqi military spokesperson confirmed that all the bases attacked were in the control of their military rather than American units, and that the drones caused significant damage to radar systems at the several of the bases. The potential for Shia Muslim militias to act independently of the Iraqi government has been a cause of concern here throughout this recent crisis. Militia contacts had been warning Sky News that they would respond if the US joined Israel's war with Iran, and this seems to be their response. While there was damage to the bases, no Iraqi or US service personnel were injured in the drone attacks. In a series of press conferences and interviews in the past few days, senior Trump administration officials have made it clear that forces working as proxies for Tehran would be targeted and dealt with in the same way as Iran if American interests and people were attacked. While overnight developments that saw the announcement of what is looking like an increasingly shaky ceasefire brought some relief here in Iraq, there remains considerable fear here that moves to peace could unravel.

F.B.I. Warns of Possible Retaliation by Iran After Bombing of Nuclear Sites
F.B.I. Warns of Possible Retaliation by Iran After Bombing of Nuclear Sites

New York Times

time4 days ago

  • Politics
  • New York Times

F.B.I. Warns of Possible Retaliation by Iran After Bombing of Nuclear Sites

Federal officials are increasingly concerned about the possibility of Iran or its supporters retaliating on American soil after the bombing of nuclear sites in Iran by U.S. forces. In an internal email on Sunday, top officials at the F.B.I. cautioned that Iran and its proxies have 'historically targeted U.S. interests in response to geopolitical events, and they are likely to increase their efforts in the near term.' They urged field offices to monitor their collection platforms and stay in close contact with the Defense Department, including the National Guard, 'who may be targeted for retaliation' while 'specific attention should be paid to' U.S. military facilities connected to the strikes in Iran. In New York City, Mayor Eric Adams said that more police officers would be on duty around religious, cultural and diplomatic sites 'out of an abundance of caution,' given the situation in the Middle East. Iran, which the United States has designated as a state sponsor of terrorism, has long backed a network of militias across the Middle East in an attempt to extend its influence across the region and undermine Israel. Those militias include Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, who control parts of Yemen. Separately, the Department of Homeland Security issued a security bulletin stating that the 'ongoing Iran conflict' had elevated security concerns in the country and adding that cyberattacks by pro-Iranian hackers were likely. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.

Oil companies in Iraq evacuate foreign staff amid fears of spillover of Israel-Iran war
Oil companies in Iraq evacuate foreign staff amid fears of spillover of Israel-Iran war

The National

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • The National

Oil companies in Iraq evacuate foreign staff amid fears of spillover of Israel-Iran war

Several international oil companies operating in southern Iraq have evacuated their foreign employees amid fears of an expansion of the Israel-Iran war, sources told The National on Monday. The sources, some of whom are employees by the companies, added that workers started to leave straight after the first Israeli attack on June 13, but that they almost all left in recent days. They added that they left through Basra International Airport, the only airport operating in Iraq now, or by land to Kuwait. The evacuation has not had an impact on operation in these fields or Iraq's oil production, the sources said. Iraq is eager not to be drawn into the conflict and its government has asked the US and Iran not to turn the country into a battleground. However, there are fears Iran-backed militias in Iraq will spring into action now that the US has entered the war. Sources close to the Iraqi government said last week some of the most prominent militant groups have made it known that any US military intervention would trigger a response. The US, meanwhile, is keeping its embassy running in Iraq even as it enters the worsening air war nearby in Iran. Some American staff left Iraq last weekend, an embassy representative said, as part of an "orderly departure" that began 10 days ago, shortly before Israel attacked Iran. However, the US embassy in Baghdad and the consulate general in Erbil "remain open and operating", the official said. They said the US State Department "continues to closely monitor the security situation across Iraq".

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