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New York Times
17 hours ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Mandel's Mailbag: Big Ten's Playoff power grab and bold calls for 2025 season
Pretty much every team in the country will hit the practice field for the first time no later than this weekend. The season is nearly upon us, which makes this a good week to start getting into predictions. But also, the Big Ten's maniacal Playoff push and, of course, realignment. Which national championship favorite stumbles and doesn't finish in the top 25 this season? — Jasper S. I realize someone in the top five or so is going to fall on its face. But I'd be in a far more lucrative profession if I could predict ahead of time who will be this year's Florida State. Advertisement Let's rephrase it to, 'national championship favorite that misses the Playoff.' I wonder a bit about Georgia. Kirby Smart's program has earned the benefit of the doubt, even after two 'down' seasons (in which the Dawgs still went 24-4). But we've seen some cracks of late. Last season's 11-3 team was notably light on offensive playmakers. It was unable to fill the voids left by Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, both of whom had 1,100-plus receiving yards as NFL rookies. And the defense finished 30th nationally in yards per play allowed (5.1), lowest since Smart's first season in 2016. I don't worry much about the defense. It's still five stars on top of five stars. And Smart made nice additions on offense in speedy USC receiver/return man Zachariah Branch and Illinois running back Josh McCray, who will make a nice complement to freshman standout Nate Frazier. But there's one position I'm surprised he did not try to upgrade: quarterback. Georgia has a lot riding on Gunner Stockton, who, after understandably struggling in relief of Carson Beck in the SEC championship game against Texas (off the bench), went 20 of 32 for 234 yards, one touchdown and no picks against Notre Dame. That game was effectively over once the Irish scored on a strip-sack of Stockton just before halftime, then returned the opening kick of the second half to go up 20-3. Stockton was sacked four times, fumbled twice and spent much of the game throwing underneath. But he connected with Arian Smith on a 67-yard deep ball and threw a 32-yard TD to a wide-open Cash Jones on a wheel route. If those two throws were indicative of what Stockton can do with a better supporting cast and another year in the system, then Georgia will make me look silly for even entertaining the idea of a slip. But if the rest of that game, and the Texas game before it, were more representative of his ceiling, then it wouldn't be a total shock if this preseason top-five team was out of the running by the end of October. Advertisement If the Big Ten is so harmed by playing nine conference games, why don't they go to eight conference games? That is if they truly care about doing what is best for their teams and not making FOX more money. — Matthew C. Based on their comments last week, the coaches are definitely obsessed with the eight- versus nine-game debate, and I'm somewhat sympathetic. These guys' jobs are dependent on losing as few games as possible, and their teams are collectively guaranteed nine more losses in conference play than the SEC's. But of course, no one forced the Big Ten to move from eight games to nine (that was a Jim Delany thing), just like no one forced it to expand to 18 teams spread across four time zones (Kevin Warren and Tony Petitti). But based on Petitti's comments in Vegas, both at the podium and with individual outlets, scheduling seems like a secondary concern for him. Even when a reporter asked him, 'Is it a must in your mind that the power conferences play the same number of conference games?' he said, 'It's not a must. Each league will decide what they think the best conference schedule is for them,' before launching into a pitch for 'a system with allocated spots.' You know what he mentioned repeatedly, though? Play-in games, play-in games, play-in games. That's his end goal in this. More inventory, more TV dollars, more happy faces at the Big Ten's de facto owner, Fox Sports. And I don't disagree that end-of-season play-in games would be exciting (though more exciting if the losers couldn't still get in as at-large teams). The problem is it would render the entire non-conference season completely meaningless and shift attention from the best teams in the country to the Big Ten and SEC's third-tier teams. Lastly, I'd just remind everyone that, regardless of the number of games, every computer rating on the internet will show that the SEC's schedules, as a whole, are more difficult than the Big Ten's. Especially when top Big Ten teams like 2023 Michigan, 2024 Ohio State and 2025 Penn State play three body bags out of conference. The teams hurt most by the extra league game are the ones trying to get to 6-6. But if you're a legit CFP contender in either league, you'd much rather play a typical Big Ten schedule than a typical SEC schedule. No one thinks the Huskies have much chance in the Big Ten. What are the chances Demond Williams Jr. makes a wave, with Ohio State coming to town in September? Washington is currently riding a 20-game home winning streak. Do the Dawgs have a chance? — Sean S. People are definitely sleeping on Washington, which came in 10th in two unofficial preseason Big Ten polls last week. Jedd Fisch overperformed in Year 1, taking what was effectively an expansion team (two returning starters) to a bowl game. He has a star quarterback to build around in Williams, one of the nation's best returning running backs in Jonah Coleman and a go-to receiver in Denzel Boston. Advertisement Meanwhile, two of Fisch's best defensive players at Arizona, linebacker Jacob Manu and cornerback Tacario Davis (both former all-conference selections), have reunited with him in Seattle. And while new defensive coordinator Ryan Walters had a woeful two-year stint as Purdue's head coach, he was a fantastic DC at Illinois before that. Not that the Huskies are without questions. The offensive line needs to get much better. Experienced Kansas State left tackle Carver Willis should help. Also, receivers need to emerge alongside Boston. Penn State's Omari Evans was a notable pickup, but he was inconsistent for the Nittany Lions. And the defense as a whole is heavily dependent on transfers. Pass-rusher Zach Durfee, cornerback Ephesians Prysock and safety Makell Esteen are the only real veterans back. As for Ohio State — that's a trappy game for the Buckeyes. It will be the first road start for their new starting quarterback (presumably Julian Sayin), as well as a bunch of guys taking on new roles. And it's not just that Washington is tough at home. The Big Ten's eastern/central schools went 3-10 in games against the four West Coast schools last season. This just confirms the talking points from media days last week that the conference plays tougher schedules than even the NFC West and should be rewarded accordingly with automatic berths and ticker tape parades. I'm so glad you've been sticking it to the Big Ten on this four-automatic bids nonsense. As a lifelong CFB fan of 40 years, I've been pushed and pushed so far by this sport and its lackluster leadership, but this may finally be the straw that breaks my back. I can't take it anymore. Do they not realize just how insane, unfair, and indefensible this idea is? — Tyler F. Apparently not. I've been covering this sport for nearly 25 years, which means I've covered every single arcane chapter in the evolution of the postseason from BCS to the four-team CFP to the 12-team CFP to this. There's been no shortage of bizarre, buffoonish moves by various commissioners, but most of them I was more bemused by than angered. What the Big Ten is doing right now, however, is the most insulting power play I've ever witnessed. And I don't need a Twitter poll to know how the vast majority of you feel about it. Advertisement If the writing is on the wall for the ACC losing its premier teams (Clemson, Florida State, UNC), should they be aggressive now by shoring up reserves? For example, if Memphis is paying now to join a league, why not poach them? Why not see about teams like Texas Tech, Arizona and Arizona State from the Big 12? — Craig B. I still question where these schools think they're going to go. The Big Ten is already finding out that bigger is not better. That's a big reason Petitti is pushing so hard for CFP expansion. He has more schools that expect to be regular Playoff participants than is mathematically possible at 12 teams. And for the SEC, going to a 16-team CFP may be more appealing than going beyond 16 teams. Especially when two of those schools, Florida State and Clemson, are in states where the SEC already has a footprint. (Throw Miami in there as well.) Now, it's a different story if we're talking about a breakaway Super League scenario. Interestingly, the ACC's lawsuit settlement with Florida State and Clemson includes a specific provision that allows six or more schools to leave in a specific sport and pay a lower exit fee (50 percent, or $75 million, whichever is higher). But if that day comes where the top 24-32 programs band together, all the conferences, including the Big Ten and SEC, will be fighting for scraps. Finally, I don't know why any Big 12 schools would leave for the ACC. They have a nice, drama-free setup where they are now. If the ACC decides to mirror the Big Ten and go to 18 teams, UConn may be at the top of the list, in particular because the ACC still cares about basketball. Maybe Tulane if it can sustain its recent football success. As for Memphis, that school has struggled to attract suitors largely because it doesn't have a great academic reputation (No. 266 in US News). That the Big 12 did not bite despite: A. Memphis offering to give the other schools free money. B. Granting the Big 12 an out to ditch Memphis before the next TV contract does not bode well for landing an ACC invite. A friendly reminder that I personally have no opinion about any school's academics, and question why this should have any factor in deciding which stadiums your football team should or should not visit. Hi Stewart, a fun game to play as we get ready for the season. Who will be the first team to gain bowl eligibility? And who will be the last? It gets interesting when you think multiple teams may get to six wins on the same day, and it comes down to which game ends first. As for the last team, good luck! — Eric Hazard I love this question, both because it's a lot more fun than Playoff plans and revenue sharing, but also, Eric submitted it by actual email! You can too: Stewart@ The first part is extra tricky because this is a year with two off weeks per team, so not many will be playing straight through for the first six weeks. So, it's no guarantee the first bid will be clinched in Week 6 (Oct. 4). And then to figure out the time of the games on top of that? Advertisement I strongly considered Jalon Daniels and the Kansas Jayhawks, who are going to bounce back in a big way this season and get a head start in Week 0, so they do play their sixth game on Oct. 4. Five of those games are Fresno State, Wagner, West Virginia, Cincinnati and at UCF. But the sixth is at Missouri. Can't pull the trigger. That brings me to two candidates playing on Oct. 11: Navy should be very good, and it opens with VMI, UAB, at Tulsa, Rice, Air Force and at Temple. Then there's Pitt, which I consider one of the top surprise contenders. The Panthers' first six are Duquesne, Central Michigan, at West Virginia, Louisville, Boston College and at Florida State. If Pitt is really 5-0 heading to Florida State, which, let's say is 3-2, that'll be the top ACC TV game that week. Last year, the No. 1 ACC game usually aired at noon on either ABC (though usually that was an SEC game) or ESPN. Whereas Navy's conference games were split either at noon on ESPN/ESPN2 or 3:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network. No idea which one would get the Temple game. Given Pitt is more likely to be earlier, I give the nod to Pat Narduzzi's team, which would be its second straight 6-0 start. Hopefully this one doesn't finish 7-6. For the second part of the question, I looked for western teams that could conceivably get picked for the late-night window on Nov. 29. Not a single Power 4 team fit the bill, and Oregon State is playing Washington State at 3:30 on The CW that day. But then I turned to the Mountain West, and there was an obvious choice: Hawaii, which hosts Wyoming at 11 p.m. ET. Why not leave the CFP at 12 and give it five more years? — Shannon E. It's telling that in every previous iteration of the sport, back to the BCS, the majority of fans have clamored for a bigger playoff field. Now, having gotten an initial peek at 12, I'd guess more want to stay where it's at than immediately fast forward to 16. Advertisement Do you agree with Dan Lanning and others that the CFP should commence the week after Championship Saturday and finish Jan. 1 with bowl games played throughout the month on off days? Can we call it 'December Delirium?' — Don D. Yes, absolutely. The inaugural 12-team CFP dragged all the way to Jan. 20, and it showed in the surprisingly modest viewership (relatively speaking) for what should have been a blockbuster Ohio State-Notre Dame matchup. It should have been up from Michigan-Washington a year earlier (25 million), not down 12 percent (22.1 million). Nor was it ideal that the first-round Saturday goes head-to-head with big NFL games. I agree with Lanning that Week 0 should become Week 1. Not only would it help with CFP scheduling, but also it gives college football two weeks to itself at the start of the season, and, as Lanning pointed out, there could be less overlap with the season and the transfer portal window. I was a bit surprised, though, that he said he'd prefer to start the Playoff a week after the conference championships. I realize his team was red-hot at the end of the regular season, then completely laid an egg in the Rose Bowl following a 25-day layoff. But most players need a week or two off after the grind of a 12- or 13-game season. While his team was negatively affected by a long break, Ohio State and Notre Dame, which did not play in conference title games, looked pretty darn fresh coming off a three-week break. I've been beating this drum for three years, but my preferred schedule is: • First round on the second weekend in December (currently Army-Navy week). • Quarterfinals on the third weekend. Note: I believe the NFL would back off this Saturday, or at least schedule less-important games, if going against these games, which averaged nearly 17 million viewers last year. • Semifinals on New Year's Day. Advertisement • National championship on the second Monday in January, like before. And then you have a three-week portal window beginning later in December, when only a handful of teams are still playing significant games. If there were no preseason rankings, how would media outlets adjust to covering season previews and early season matchups? — Jon There will always be preseason rankings, whether official (AP and USA Today coaches poll) or unofficial (the other 3,000 of them on the internet), because lots and lots of people read them. And then complain about them. And then read them again the next year.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Florda basketball: Portrait of a champion.
Florida basketball coach Todd Golden reacts to a national championship portrait painted by artist and former Florida football standout James Bates that will hang at Spurrier Gridiron Grill's Championship Room.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
ESPN Computer Names Country's 10 Realistic National Champions
ESPN Computer Names Country's 10 Realistic National Champions originally appeared on The Spun. Every college football team heads into the season hoping to win the national championship. But how many programs are actually capable of doing it? Everyone wants to do what Ohio State did last year. The Buckeyes went 10-2 in the regular season but made the College Football Playoff and got hot at the right time. The Buckeyes topped Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame on the way to a national championship. Who is actually capable of doing that this year? According to ESPN's computer model, the Football Power Index, the number is set at about 10 teams. Here is, according to ESPN's computer model, the list of 10 "realistic" national champions for the 2025 college football season. All 10 of these teams have at least a 2.3 percent chance of winning the national title this year, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. Texas Georgia Ohio State Alabama Penn State Oregon Clemson Notre Dame Miami Texas A&M The Aggies are the lowest-odds team on the list, with a 2.3 percent chance of winning the national championship. Texas, meanwhile, is the overwhelming favorite. Steve Sarkisian's team has a 24.1 percent chance of winning the national championship. According to ESPN's computer model, the Longhorns win it all one out of every four simulations. Who do you have winning the College Football Playoff during the 2025-26 college football season? Sound off in the comments below. ESPN Computer Names Country's 10 Realistic National Champions first appeared on The Spun on Jul 27, 2025 This story was originally reported by The Spun on Jul 27, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Where James Franklin ranks in ESPN college football coach ranking
Penn State head coach James Franklin is entering his 12th season at the helm of the program, and he may be facing the most pressure yet after bringing Penn State to the cusp of an appearance in the national championship game last season. The Nittany Lions are predicted to be a Big Ten heavyweight with a legitimate national title aspirations as they look to take the challenging next step as a program Franklin has been harping about for years. No matter what you think about Franklin entering the 2025 season, the numbers do back up the idea that he is among the best in the game. And according to Bill Connelly of ESPN, the numbers have Franklin ranked as one of the four best coaches in college football in 2025. Connelly's mathematical formulas, used to rank just about everything you can imagine in college football, have calculated Franklin to be the fourth-best active college football coach for the upcoming college football season. Two ranked ahead of him, Ohio State's Ryan Day (no. 1) and Georgia's Kirby Smart (no. 3), have national championships to their name. The other, Josh Heupel of Tennessee (no. 2), is questionable if not laughable. Even if you rank Heupel ahead of Franklin, is he really the second-best coach in the sport? Probably not. While a small handful of active head coaches currently own national title rings (Clemson's Dabo Swinney joins Day and Smart and may have the Tigers ready to roar back to the national title conversation soon enough after year's ACC championship and playoff appearance), the tenure of Franklin is a bit of a complicated one when determining his success. Penn State has consistently been one of the winningest programs in the country since his arrival, but Franklin's jarring record against top-ranked teams is an unavoidable narrative that is increasingly more difficult to combat even for Franklin's biggest defenders. Arguing that Franklin has been a bust for a head coach is ill-advised as he has taken Penn State to a Big Ten title and wins in the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl (twice), and Cotton Bowl, and has helped[d produce some incredible talent for the NFL. But it is also fair to suggest Franklin has failed to getting Penn State to the elite level the program is striving for. After so many years and shortcomings against the same hurdles in the same fashion, the case has been made. But maybe in 2025, Franklin will finally break free of that narrative once and for all. Follow Kevin McGuire on Threads, Bluesky, Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook. Follow Nittany Lions Wire on X, Facebook, and Threads. This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: ESPN formula ranks James Franklin one of best college football coaches
New York Times
5 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
What I learned from ACC media days: Clemson's back, Belichick's funny, FSU's confident
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — When the ACC's predicted order of finish comes out in the coming days, Clemson will almost certainly be at the top. And that, perhaps, is just the start. The Tigers are being discussed as national championship contenders thanks in part to a key position group that's starting to look title-worthy again: wide receiver. Advertisement 'We haven't had this situation in a while,' head coach Dabo Swinney said. When Clemson joined Alabama as the sport's juggernauts from 2015 to 2018, that position was dominant for the Tigers. The 2016 national champions had a half-dozen receivers who at least made an NFL practice squad. Two (Hunter Renfrow and Ray-Ray McCloud III) are still in the league, and a third (Mike Williams) retired this month as the 10th-most prolific pass catcher in Chargers history. The 2018 title team had stars Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross. But from 2021 to 2023, the Tigers had zero receivers earn all-conference recognition. This year, however, looks different. Antonio Williams was an all-ACC performer last season. Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore combined for 10 touchdown catches and more than 1,300 yards as freshmen. Southeast Missouri State transfer Tristan Smith joined as the first big portal pickup of Swinney's tenure, giving the Tigers another immediate contributor. 'We're in a much different place than we've been really in the last couple years because we have six guys that really can start,' Swinney said. 'I think hopefully we can really have two waves of terror to where we can play these guys.' If he's right, it's easy to envision Clemson rising from College Football Playoff qualifiers to contenders this season. A few other things we learned after three days of reporting at the Hilton Uptown Charlotte: Florida State's presumptive starting quarterback made headlines this offseason when he told On3 he didn't envision the Seminoles' Week 1 opponent, Alabama, stopping him without Nick Saban to 'save them.' Castellanos was asked several times about that remark. Each time, he said a version of, 'We stand on what I said' (while adding that he was not trying to disrespect the Crimson Tide). 🗣️ "Being a part of Florida State is a dream come true." – Tommy Castellanos 📺 @accnetwork — ACC Football (@ACCFootball) July 23, 2025 Castellanos, a transfer from Boston College, said he has the confidence to make that claim because of the talent around him. 'I'm around a lot of real dudes that — we're all desperate,' Castellanos said. 'When a man's desperate, it's scary.' Miami's Carson Beck (from Georgia), Duke's Darian Mensah (Tulane), North Carolina's Gio Lopez (South Alabama) and Castellanos are probably the four most high-profile transfer quarterbacks in the conference. Two others are similarly intriguing. Advertisement Virginia's Chandler Morris is on the fourth and final stop of a wild college career. He scored the first touchdown of the 2020 Big 12 championship for Oklahoma, beat out eventual Heisman runner-up Max Duggan for the starting job at TCU and was one of the nation's top passers last season at North Texas. That last destination wasn't the biggest, but it was crucial after injuries derailed him in 2021, 2022 and 2023. 'Sometimes, when the game doesn't love you back, it's hard to love the game,' Morris said. 'I was hurting. I just didn't have that fire in me anymore.' "You can't coach experience." 📺 ACC Network — Virginia Football (@UVAFootball) July 22, 2025 Last season's success at North Texas (31 touchdown passes and a school-record 314.5 passing yards per game) reignited the fire that injuries had taken away. Morris said he fell in love with the game again and longed to get back to the Power 4 level. 'I just want to get back to it and get back on that big stage,' Morris said. 'I want to get back to it and prove to myself that if I can go play a full season, I'm going to be up there with some of the best quarterbacks in the country.' Miller Moss' journey to Louisville had fewer stops but a different twist. The former top-100 national recruit signed with USC in December 2020 and broke out three years later in his first start with 372 yards and a Holiday Bowl record six touchdown passes against… Louisville. 'It's kind of a random coincidence or full-circle moment, whatever you want to call it,' Moss said. 'Fans will come up and say stuff to me. I'll just let them know that we're going to make up for it this year.' Miller will join an offense that already has a dynamic run game led by last season's ACC rookie of the year, Isaac Brown (1,173 yards and 11 touchdowns). If Miller plays well enough to make it up to Cardinals fans, Louisville could challenge for its second trip to the conference championship in three seasons. Advertisement North Carolina's new coach had reporters laughing several times during Thursday's breakout session. If that was a surprise to the media or outsiders, it wasn't to his players. 'The first time I ever met him, he actually cracked a joke,' said Tar Heels defensive back Thaddeus Dixon, a transfer from Washington. Alas, it was not a joke Dixon said he could repeat. 'Competition is what makes us all better.' 🗣️ Coach Belichick knows iron sharpens iron. 📺 @accnetwork — ACC Football (@ACCFootball) July 24, 2025 Lopez said Belichick 'does demand greatness out of you,' but makes plenty of sly jokes along the way. 'He'll be watching film, and he'll say something that's completely out of left field,' Lopez said. 'You're like, 'Where did that come from?' You just start laughing. He's a funny guy.' When Stanford fired Troy Taylor after investigations into his treatment of athletic department employees in the spring, Cardinal general manager Andrew Luck couldn't conduct a coaching search during the normal timeframe. Luck chose his former Indianapolis Colts head coach, Frank Reich, as the program's interim head coach. Four months later, Reich said he's sure this is only a one-season gig. If there's no chance Reich will be coaching the Cardinal beyond this fall, what does success look like for a bridge season? 'That's a great question,' Reich said. 'Certainly part of that success is going to be creating a culture that is a championship-type culture, really installing a mindset into a group of young players that will carry over after this year… 'This team has been down for a number of years, so how much progress can we make in one year? I'm optimistic. Because of the kind of players we've got, I know we're going to win either way. We'll have it set up for (the) long term.'
