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Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
OPEC, IEA crude oil demand forecasts may be too cautious
A key difference in crude oil demand forecasts between this year and 2024 is that both OPEC and the International Energy Agency ( IEA ) are being far more cautious in their growth expectations. While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ group publicly maintain that strong demand and a tight market justify increasing oil output, the numbers in their monthly report are more circumspect. It is largely the same for the IEA, which forecast in its July monthly report that global crude demand will grow by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, the slowest pace since 2009. OPEC's July report is slightly more bullish, forecasting oil demand will increase by 1.29 million bpd in 2025, with 1.16 million bpd coming from countries outside the developed economies of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The forecasts from both the IEA and OPEC are now so cautious that they actually run the risk of being too pessimistic, especially in the top-importing region of Asia. This is in stark contrast to last year, when OPEC in particular was massively bullish in its demand forecasts even as Asia's crude oil imports were declining. There is, of course, a difference between demand forecasts and imports, but the level of seaborne imports is the key driver of crude prices, given it is this market, which accounts for about 40% of global daily oil demand, that sets the global prices. In its July 2024 monthly report OPEC forecast that Asia's non-OECD oil demand would rise by 1.34 million bpd in 2024, with China accounting for 760,000 bpd of this. However, Asia's crude imports actually declined in 2024, dropping by 370,000 bpd to 26.51 million bpd, according to data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. It was the first decline in Asia's oil imports since 2021, at a time when demand was hit by the lockdowns prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The gap between OPEC's bullish forecasts for much of 2024 and the reality of weak crude imports by Asia may have tempered the exporter group's forecasts for 2025. The question is whether they are now actually being too cautious. Asia recovery OPEC's July monthly report forecast that non-OECD Asia's oil demand will rise by 610,000 bpd in 2025, with China the main contributor at 210,000 and India, Asia's second-biggest crude importer, seeing an increase of 160,000 bpd. The IEA said in its July report that it expects China's total oil product demand to rise by 81,000 bpd in 2025, while India is expected to see a gain of 92,000 bpd. Total non-OECD Asia is forecast to see demand rise by 352,000 bpd. Both the OPEC and the IEA numbers seem modest, especially since Asia's crude imports actually saw relatively strong growth in the first half of 2025. Asia's imports in the first six months of the year were 27.25 million bpd, an increase of 510,000 bpd from the same period last year, according to calculations based on LSEG data. Imports increased in the second quarter, especially in China, as refiners took advantage of the weakening trend in oil prices that prevailed at the time cargoes were being arranged. It is likely that some of the increase in oil imports was used to build inventories, a process that may extend into the second half if oil prices remain soft as OPEC+ increases output amid the economic uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump's ongoing global trade war. If there is one lesson to be learnt from the difference between this year's circumspect oil demand forecasts and last year's buoyant estimates, it is that price plays a far bigger role in demand, especially in Asia. Part of the reason Asia's crude imports fell short of forecasts in 2024 was because prices remained elevated for much of the year, reaching above $92 a barrel in April and only briefly dropping below $70 in September. This year, prices have been softer, with benchmark Brent futures peaking at just over $82 a barrel in January, and trading as low as $58.50 in May.
Observer
16-07-2025
- Business
- Observer
Oil prices rise, global economy stabilises in June
VIENNA: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) announced on Wednesday a significant increase in oil prices in June, with the average Opec basket rising by $6.11 to $69.73 a barrel, in addition to the stability of the global economy in the same month. Opec reported in its monthly report that Brent crude rose by $5.79 to $69.80 and West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $6.39 to $67.33. On the economic front, the report indicated that the global economy continued its stable growth, supported by strong performance in the first half of this year, with growth forecasts remaining stable at 2.9 per cent for 2025 and 3.1 per cent for 2026. The report indicated that forecasts for the world's largest economies remained stable during 2025 and 2026, led by the United States at 1.7 per cent and 2.1 per cent, China at 4.6 per cent and 4.5 per cent, and India at 6.5 per cent. In addition, forecasts for Japan, the Euro zone, Brazil and Russia remained stable. Global oil demand remained unchanged, with an expected growth of 1.3 million barrels per day for 2025 and 2026, an increase of 100,000 barrels per day from OECD countries and 1.2 million barrels per day from non-OECD countries. Regarding supplies, Opec expects oil production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation to grow by 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 700,000 barrels per day in 2026, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada and Argentina. The report indicated that crude oil production from Opec countries participating in the agreement recorded a monthly increase of 349,000 barrels per day in June, reaching approximately 41.56 million barrels per day. The Opec report also addressed Europe's imports of crude oil and products, indicating an 11 per cent increase. Japan's imports of crude oil declined, although they remained higher than the previous year's levels, and its product exports declined. The report indicated that commercial oil inventories in OECD countries rose by 34.5 million barrels in May to 2,771 million barrels, but they remain approximately 184 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average, with both crude oil and product inventories rising. — ONA
Gulf Insider
16-07-2025
- Business
- Gulf Insider
Global Oil Consumption Reaches All-Time High
Global oil consumption reached an all-time high in 2024, driven primarily by non-OECD countries, with the U.S. remaining the largest consumer. The U.S. continues to lead the world in total oil production, contributing to a record global output despite a slowdown in its growth rate. The 2025 Statistical Review reveals key shifts including declining production in Russia and Saudi Arabia, surging demand in India, and the significant rise of Guyana as an oil producer. Each year, the Statistical Review of World Energy offers important insights into global energy trends. Now published by the Energy Institute in collaboration with KPMG and Kearney, the 2025 edition—reflecting full-year 2024 data—reveals that global oil production and consumption remained relatively steady, but there are meaningful shifts underway. These shifts reflect not only changing geopolitics and economic recovery patterns but also longer-term questions around energy security, investment priorities, and the uneven global evolution toward decarbonization. In 2024, global oil consumption–which excludes biofuels but includes coal and natural gas derivatives–reached 101.8 million barrels per day (bpd). The represents an all-time high that slightly surpassed the 2023 level by 0.7%. On average, oil demand has increased by 1% per year over the past decade, driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries. The U.S. remains the world's largest oil consumer, accounting for 18.7% of global demand. Daily consumption in the U.S. fell slightly from 2023, but over the past decade it increased by 0.5% per year on average. China was the world's second-largest oil consumer, accounting for 16.1% of global demand. Its daily consumption fell 1.2% to 16.4 million bpd in 2024. This decline is a marked departure from the average 4% gain per year over the past decade, which means China's oil demand may be showing signs of plateauing. With economic growth slowing and a push toward electrification of transportation underway, some analysts speculate China may be approaching its long-term oil demand peak. Meanwhile, India's oil consumption continues to surge, jumping 3.1% year-over-year to 5.6 million bpd. The nation's economic expansion and rising middle class continue to drive growth, putting India on track to become the third-largest oil consumer globally within a few years. OECD nations saw modest changes in oil demand (+0.1%) while non-OECD nations saw demand jump by 1.2%. On the production side, global oil output (including natural gas liquids and other liquids) hit a record 96.9 million barrels per day. That's 1.8 million barrels more than the pre-pandemic peak, and about 9% higher than the lows seen during the COVID-19 downturn. On the surface, it's a story of resilience and recovery. But dig a little deeper, and the numbers reveal a more complicated picture. The United States continues to lead the world in total oil production, clocking in at 20.1 million barrels per day. But that headline figure includes a sizable share of natural gas liquids—byproducts like ethane and propane that aren't typically directly used as transportation fuels but may function as refinery feedstock. Strip those out, and U.S. production of crude oil and condensate—the type of output most analysts consider 'true oil'—comes in at 13.2 million barrels per day. Although this was yet another production record, the 2% increase from 2023 was less than half the 4.2% average annual gain over the previous decade, which could be an indication that U.S. production is close to a plateau. Russia follows in second place at 10.2 million barrels per day of crude plus condensate. That was down 3.1% from 2023, largely due to the impact of Western sanctions and logistical constraints. However, Russian exports to China and India remained robust, helping the country maintain relevance in global energy markets despite diplomatic isolation. Saudi Arabia also saw production fall by 4.2%. Saudi was in third place in 2024 with 9.2 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2011. The drop reflects both voluntary production cuts to support prices and long-term questions about the Kingdom's spare capacity amid heavy domestic investments in refining and petrochemicals. The Statistical Review also sheds light on global oil reserves, although those are only available for the end of 2020. At that time, the world's proven oil reserves stood at 1.7 trillion barrels—enough to sustain current production levels for roughly 53.5 years. However, the distribution of those reserves remains highly uneven. Venezuela still holds the largest proved reserves, at 304 billion barrels, but much of that oil is heavy and difficult to extract. Saudi Arabia is second with 298 billion barrels, followed by Iran at 158 billion. The U.S., by contrast, holds 69 billion barrels—reflecting both a mature production base and a reserve classification system that tends to be more conservative. A few notable trends emerged from this year's data: Saudi Arabia's Output Decline : The drop in Saudi production is significant not only because it's the lowest in more than a decade, but also because it signals a shift in how the Kingdom may balance price stability with market share. : The drop in Saudi production is significant not only because it's the lowest in more than a decade, but also because it signals a shift in how the Kingdom may balance price stability with market share. U.S. Efficiency and NGLs : While the U.S. continues to be the top oil producer, a growing share of that output is in the form of natural gas liquids, which are not suitable for all applications and require different refining infrastructure. This evolution has implications for and refining strategies. : While the U.S. continues to be the top oil producer, a growing share of that output is in the form of natural gas liquids, which are not suitable for all applications and require different refining infrastructure. This evolution has implications for and refining strategies. Flat Growth in Global Reserves : The relative lack of reserve growth despite strong consumption reflects an investment hesitancy across much of the industry. This could pose long-term supply challenges if demand doesn't moderate. : The relative lack of reserve growth despite strong consumption reflects an investment hesitancy across much of the industry. This could pose long-term supply challenges if demand doesn't moderate. India's Ascent : India's rise as a major demand center—with relatively little domestic production—makes it one of the most strategically important countries in the oil market. Its policy choices on storage, refining, and renewables will shape future demand dynamics. : India's rise as a major demand center—with relatively little domestic production—makes it one of the most strategically important countries in the oil market. Its policy choices on storage, refining, and renewables will shape future demand dynamics. Guyana's Rise: Guyana's meteoric rise from zero to over 600,000 barrels daily in just five years is one of the fastest production ramps in oil industry history. With reserves now estimated at 11 billion barrels, Guyana is projected to reach 1 million barrels daily soon, potentially becoming a top-five global producer within the decade. Oil markets in 2024 were defined by an uneasy equilibrium. On the one hand, production and consumption were closely matched, and price volatility was relatively contained. On the other, the factors holding that balance together—OPEC+ coordination, U.S. shale resilience, and subdued global demand growth—are all subject to disruption. Looking ahead, several questions loom: Will China's oil demand begin to decline in absolute terms? Can U.S. shale sustain output without massive reinvestment? Will geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Russia, or elsewhere upset the delicate supply-demand balance? These aren't just market questions—they are strategic ones that affect global inflation, trade, and energy security. The 2025 Statistical Review confirms that oil is still very much at the center of the global economy. Demand is growing in the developing world, production remains concentrated among a handful of players, and supply vulnerabilities persist. In the coming weeks, I'll continue to unpack key findings from the Statistical Review, including natural gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear power trends. But one thing is clear from the oil data: in a world increasingly focused on energy transition, the importance of oil—economically and geopolitically—hasn't gone anywhere. Also read: OPEC Says Global Oil Consumption Will Hit 123 Million BPD By 2050
Mint
13-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Rajrishi Singhal: India must probe the reasons behind rising outward FDI flows
Gift this article A general sense of despair pervades the universe of foreign direct investment (FDI), with flows from one country to another ebbing markedly in 2024. Three separate reports have independently lamented the sharp fall in FDI and concluded that this decline spells trouble particularly for developing countries, which are dependent on foreign investment for enhancing industrial capacity, upgrading infrastructure, modernizing technology and expanding their stock of renewable energy assets. All four factors are critical for economic growth, apart from reducing dependence on fossil fuels. A general sense of despair pervades the universe of foreign direct investment (FDI), with flows from one country to another ebbing markedly in 2024. Three separate reports have independently lamented the sharp fall in FDI and concluded that this decline spells trouble particularly for developing countries, which are dependent on foreign investment for enhancing industrial capacity, upgrading infrastructure, modernizing technology and expanding their stock of renewable energy assets. All four factors are critical for economic growth, apart from reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Waning FDI flows hold critical implications even for the Indian economy, specifically due to the rising tide of outflows and Indian industry's growing preference for overseas investment destinations. Also Read: India's FDI inflows offset by outflows: Blip or worry? The annualWorld Investment Report 2025 from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), states that FDI flows fell 11% in 2024, a second straight year of decline, and the prognosis for 2025 is equally disheartening due to 'high investor uncertainty." However, what shines through in the report was a doubling of project values in the digital sector. But this was not without its drawbacks. According to UNCTAD secretary-general Rebeca Grynspan, 'Despite more than $500 billion in greenfield investment in the digital economy into developing countries over the past five years, this investment is heavily concentrated in a few countries. Many structurally weak and vulnerable economies remain marginalized, constrained by inadequate digital infrastructure, limited digital skills and policy and regulatory uncertainty." The second data release emanated from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a club for rich nations. The OECD report states that while the US, Luxembourg and Canada were the world's top three FDI destinations during 2024, flows to the G-20's non-OECD economies (which includes India) declined by 30%. China witnessed a decline for the third consecutive year. Also Read: Rework India's investment treaty framework to attract FDI flows A third report,Foreign Direct Investment in Retreat: Policies to Turn the Tide, was released by the World Bank. The report, using recent project announcements, states that greenfield FDI to emerging and developing economies (the dominant form of investment flows into these economies) declined 25% during 2024. This indicates a growing distaste for setting up new manufacturing facilities in these markets. The report also nails down the 2008 financial crisis as a turning point for global FDI: flows as a share of global GDP declined from 5% in 2007 to below 1% during both 2023 and 2024, the lowest since the start of this century. All three reports point to heightened trade tensions, policy uncertainty and a breakdown of global value chains due to rising protectionism as the primary reasons for waning FDI. These factors have contributed to a weakening of the global macroeconomic backdrop, further imperilling the near-term outlook for FDI flows. This has an unmistakably adverse impact on India, though the picture may look different at a gross level. Let's unpack this. Among FDI recipients, the UNCTAD report places India at 15th rank in 2024, marginally up from 16th position in 2023. And while greenfield activity was reportedly strong in India (led by semiconductor and metal projects), international project finance inflows contracted by 37%. What makes India's FDI data remarkable, however, is the country's growing outflows. The first category is of existing FDI investors cashing out and taking funds back home. A proportion of these outflows has overseas investors liquidating local holdings in favour of domestic groups. For example, Walt Disney sold its Indian operations (Star India) to Jio and private-equity firm Advent International relinquished its 100% stake in Bharat Serum to Mankind Pharma. However, given the lack of granular data, it becomes difficult to pin down the exact ratio of domestic versus overseas buyouts. Also Read: India's FDI decline seems easier to explain than reverse What seems more disconcerting, though, is Indian businesses increasingly favouring overseas investments rather than putting their money to work at home. Outflows under this category in 2024 jumped 75% over the previous year. Compared with 2016-17, outflows in 2024-25 were more than four times larger. According to the World Bank's report: 'Among the push factors that tend to encourage FDI outflows from the source country are its weak growth prospects, macroeconomic risks, political instability, rising production costs, and deterioration of the regulatory environment." The growing volume of outflows seems counter-intuitive, since the government has initiated policies to both facilitate FDI inflows—such as higher FDI caps in a number of sectors (insurance and defence, for instance) and liberalized rules for construction or single brand retail trading—and expedite domestic manufacturing (such as its production-linked incentive scheme). Typically, the largest sources of outward FDI are rich economies with capital account convertibility, barring conduits like the Netherlands or Singapore. For example, the US and Japan occupy the top two spots in the outward FDI league tables, while China, with partial convertibility, is in third place. India, in contrast, is still a low-middle income economy and the rupee's internationalization is lower than the renminbi's. It thus becomes imperative for the Indian government to probe the reasons behind India Inc's reluctance to invest at home, despite all the incentives, low interest rates and generous tax breaks. The author is a senior journalist and author of 'Slip, Stitch and Stumble: The Untold Story of India's Financial Sector Reforms' @rajrishisinghal Topics You May Be Interested In
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Who Is The World's Top Natural Gas Producer?
This article was first published on Rigzone here According to the Energy Institute's (EI) latest statistical review of world energy, which was released recently, the world's top natural gas producer last year was the United States. The U.S. produced 37.19 exajoules of natural gas in 2024, which represented a yearly reduction of 0.3 percent and 25.0 percent of total natural gas output last year, the review outlined. From 2014 to 2024, U.S. production of natural gas has grown by an average rate of 3.9 percent per year, the review showed. U.S. natural gas production came in at 25.37 exajoules in 2014, 26.65 exajoules in 2015, 26.18 exajoules in 2016, 26.90 exajoules in 2017, 30.27 exajoules in 2018, 33.41 exajoules in 2019, 33.29 exajoules in 2020, 34.00 exajoules in 2021, 35.67 exajoules in 2022, and 37.19 exajoules in 2023, according to the EI's review. Russia was shown to be the second biggest natural gas producer last year in the EI's latest statistical review of world energy, which pointed out that the country produced 22.68 exajoules of natural gas in 2024. That figure represented a 7.1 percent year on year increase and 15.3 percent of global natural gas production last year, the review pointed out. From 2014 to 2024, Russia has seen its natural gas output increase by an average rate of 0.6 percent every year, the review highlighted. Iran ranked as the third biggest natural gas producer in 2024 in the EI's review, with 9.46 exajoules. That figure marked a year on year increase of 0.9 percent and 6.4 percent of global natural gas production last year, according to the review, which outlined that, from 2014 to 2024, Iran's natural gas output has grown by an average rate of 4.1 percent every year. Total world natural gas production came in at 148.48 exajoules in 2024, according to the EI's latest statistical review of world energy, which outlined that OECD countries delivered 39.3 percent of the total output and non-OECD countries delivered 60.7 percent. Take control of your THOUSANDS of Oil & Gas jobs on Search Now >> The total world natural gas production figure in the EI's latest statistical review of world energy was a 1.2 percent year on year increase, the report showed. From 2014 to 2024, total world natural gas output has grown by an average of 1.8 percent every year, the review highlighted. In its review, the EI pointed out that its natural gas production figures exclude gas flared or recycled and include natural gas produced for gas to liquids transformation. 'In 2024, global gas production increased by 1.2 percent to 4,124 billion cubic meters,' the EI stated in its review. 'The four largest producers are the U.S., Russia, Iran, and China who, together, account for 53 percent of total global production,' it added. A release posted on EI's website last month announcing the launch of the review noted that the EI statistical review of world energy analyzes data on world energy markets from the prior year. 'It has been providing timely, comprehensive and objective data to the energy community since 1952, originally from BP and, since 2023, under the custodianship of the EI and its co-authors KPMG and Kearney,' the release stated. 'The statistical review continues to be full, first, and free: the fullest, most reliable account of energy production, consumption, trade and emissions; the first data source to provide a complete global picture of the previous year; and completely free to access for users,' the release continued. The EI released its first, and the overall 72nd, annual edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy back in June 2023. The latest statistical review of world energy marks the overall 74th edition of the resource. To contact the author, email More From The Leading Energy Platform: Cyprus Announces New Gas Discovery in Block 10 Iberdrola Approves Supplemental Dividend for 2024 Great British Energy Gets Permanent CEO How Close Did Iran Come to Shutting Strait of Hormuz? >> Find the latest oil and gas jobs on << Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
