Latest news with #non-OPEC
Associated Press
6 hours ago
- Business
- Associated Press
COUNTRY & SECTOR RISKS - June 2025 The great leap backwards: 23 sectors and 4 countries downgraded
HONG KONG SAR / SHANGHAI & BEIJING, CHINA / TAIPEI, TAIWAN / SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA / TOKYO, JAPAN - Media OutReach Newswire - 15 July 2025 - In a context of unprecedented geopolitical and trade uncertainty, the global economy is navigating between an expected slowdown and escalation risks. Trump's tariff decisions and tensions in the Middle East are reshaping an unpredictable economic landscape for 2025-2026. In this environment, and in view of the measures already in place, Coface has downgraded 23 sectors and 4 countries. Key trends: Global economy: uncertainty is the new normal The global economic outlook is more uncertain than ever, as it depends heavily on (geo)political events and the trade decisions of the US President. The reintroduction of tariffs after the 90-day suspension periods (9 July for the rest of the world, 12 August for China) could have a significant impact on global growth. A marked slowdown is expected (2.2% growth in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026), with mainly downside risks – growth of below 2% cannot be ruled out if the geopolitical and trade situations escalate. The same uncertainty naturally surrounds inflation, whose current stability could be jeopardised. It could reach 4% in the US by the end of 2025, with broader upside risks subsisting in the event of higher energy prices. The major central banks are likely to respond with a continued cautious stance. However, if US inflation is brought under control, the Fed could cut rates as early as the autumn of 2025. The ECB has announced that it will maintain its rate-cutting policy, but added that it is close to its terminal rate. Uncertainty is all the greater in Europe as long-delayed fiscal consolidation policies could finally begin to be implemented, while Germany is engaged in a stimulus programme whose scale is difficult to assess at this stage. Tensions in the Middle East and oversupply: oil balances on a high wire The Israel-Iran conflict has reigniting fears over oil. A disruption or even a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (the passage for 20 million barrels per day, or 20% of global supply) could push prices above $100 per barrel. Excluding this geopolitical environment, however, fundamentals point to a fall in prices on back of production increases in non-OPEC+ countries, demand weakened by trade tensions and the reintroduction of volumes by OPEC+ members (2.2 million barrels per day). Barring a major crisis, prices should continue to be extremely volatile but remain within a range of $65 to $75 per barrel. Advanced economies: a mix of resilience and vulnerability The US economy faces two uncertainties: the size of customs tariffs and how they will be absorbed by the economy. Despite declining consumer confidence, employment is holding up and the contraction in GDP (-0.2% in Q1) is a reflection of preventive stockpiling by businesses. In Europe, Germany saw a minor uptick in growth in the first quarter, France remains sluggish, Italy could run out of steam, while Spain continues to benefit from tourism and European funds to maintain momentum. Emerging economies are the first victims of trade turmoil In China, the temporary truce on tariffs has led to a surge in exports, but the outlook is fragile. India, despite generating growth of more than 7% in the first quarter, is seeing consumption slow and its fiscal headroom shrink. In Latin America, Mexico is bearing the brunt of trade uncertainty, with zero growth expected in 2025. Brazil, after a rebound in agriculture following El Niño-induced losses, is expected to contract on back of restrictive monetary policy (key rate raised to 15%). In Argentina, the momentum generated by Mileinomics is strong and, despite its low foreign exchange reserves, could post GDP growth of 5% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. Metallurgy: 600 million tonnes of steel overcapacity weighing on the global sector The metallurgy sector is experiencing a major crisis, having recorded global steel overcapacity of 600 million tonnes in 2024, which represents 25% of global production. The unfavourable macroeconomic environment, energy tensions and new steel tariffs are exacerbating the situation for steelmakers, particularly in Canada, Mexico and Europe. Canada: the economy is faltering under the weight of tariffs With 75% of its exports headed for the US, Canada is one of the countries most exposed to the trade war. Growth has slowed significantly after a surge at the end of 2024. Consumption is falling, investment is weakening and unemployment stands at 6.9%, its highest level since 2017. Exports, boosted by the menace of customs duties, contracted sharply in April. The automotive and metals sectors, which were hit by tariff increases of up to 50%, have been particularly affected. The upcoming revision of the USMCA agreement, which is expected to be brought forward to the end of 2025, could further exacerbate the country's economic instability. Read the full study here Hashtag: #Coface The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. COFACE: FOR TRADE As a global leading player in trade credit risk management for almost 80 years, Coface helps companies grow and navigate in an uncertain and volatile environment. Whatever their size, location or sector, Coface provides 100,000 clients across some 200 markets. with a full range of solutions: Trade Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Single Risk insurance, Surety Bonds, Factoring. Every day, Coface leverages its unique expertise and cutting-edge technology to make trade happen, in both domestic and export markets. In 2024, Coface employed +5,200 people and recorded a turnover of ~€1.845 billion.
Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil in flux: Rising supply meets fragile demand
The global oil market in 2025 has become a delicate balancing act, influenced significantly by the decisions of OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Earlier this year, the market struggled with slow demand due to ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainty in key economies. Initially, OPEC+ tried to keep oil prices stable by maintaining deep production cuts of around five million barrels per day. However, starting in April, OPEC+ shifted gears, gradually increasing production again. Their goal was straightforward: regain market share and counter growing supply from non-OPEC producers, particularly the United States. Over May and June 2025, they steadily increased output, adding roughly 400,000 barrels per day each month. By July, they ramped up the pace further, deciding to boost production by another 548,000 barrels per day in August, followed by around 550,000 more barrels per day planned for September. By that point, OPEC+ will have fully reversed their earlier production cuts. Notably, the UAE emerged as a standout within the group, announcing it would significantly raise its production by an additional 300,000 barrels per day, showcasing its ambitions to play a bigger role in global oil markets. Meanwhile, the IEA in July 2025 revised its outlook for the year, predicting a bigger supply increase of about 2.1 million barrels per day, slightly higher than previously expected. Interestingly, the IEA also noted that demand growth for oil in 2025 would remain unusually low, growing at just 700,000 barrels per day—the slowest growth rate seen outside of a global crisis year since 2009. Yet despite forecasting this supply surplus, the IEA warned the market might still feel tight in the short-term, especially during summer months, as refineries are operating at full capacity and global oil inventories remain relatively low. This unusual situation created uncertainty and volatility, making price movements unpredictable. Throughout early July, oil prices have experienced noticeable swings. Initially, they dipped sharply due to fears over trade tariffs and slower economic growth in major markets like the United States and China. But by now, prices recovered somewhat, edging back up toward $70 per barrel. This rebound came as traders focused on short-term factors, including strong summer demand and tighter physical supplies in the market. Looking ahead, OPEC remains optimistic about the long-term future of oil, expecting global oil consumption to rise steadily to approximately 123 million barrels per day by 2050. To meet this growing demand, especially from emerging markets, OPEC stressed the need for substantial investment in refining infrastructure, suggesting that the world would require an additional 195 million barrels per day of refining capacity over the next few decades. In summary, the global oil market midway through 2025 finds itself navigating conflicting signals. While overall supply growth is outpacing weak demand, short-term factors like seasonal refinery use and lower inventories are keeping markets tighter than expected. Both OPEC and the IEA, despite their differing perspectives, highlight the need for flexibility, ongoing investment, and cautious optimism as they steer through this uncertain period. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Arab Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Arab Times
Bad news – oil prices plunge below $70 pb
Demand for oil is weak from major consumers in Asia, including China, Japan, and South Korea, with a reduction of more than 400,000 barrels per day. These countries are the main consumers of oil from Arabian Gulf producers, so the decline will have a major impact on Gulf economies without exception. In addition, demand in the United States has slowed by 70,000 barrels per day, along with reduced demand from Mexico. Oil prices have now fallen below $68 a barrel, a level not seen even during the 2009 financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic. The sad reality is that oil prices are now much lower than in previous years, possibly reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs, which may also be affecting domestic demand. Meanwhile, Europe and emerging markets such as India, Pakistan, and Vietnam show reduced demand. This could suggest that Far East countries either have surplus oil with no available storage capacity, or they are holding off in anticipation of further price drops. This is certainly bad news for OPEC, which recently increased crude output, pushing more than one million barrels per day in excess into the market. With global oil demand at 104 million barrels per day and supply at 105.2 million, the market is now oversupplied by over one million barrels daily, and it is struggling to find buyers. As a result, prices have dropped below $68 a barrel, with no immediate signs of recovery. The question remains whether OPEC+ will return to its traditional policy of supporting crude oil prices by cutting production, a strategy that may ultimately benefit non-OPEC producers and erode OPEC+'s market share. This could lead to the same cycle of repeated policy shifts. Or will this time be different, as OPEC+ becomes more accustomed to outside borrowing? The oil market needs stability and clear guidance from OPEC+ to take the right actions that balance supply while managing oil prices at an acceptable level. This raises questions about the effectiveness of the quota system and the success of the overall policy of OPEC+. Most of the time, their measures work only briefly before the organization relaxes its stance. When oil prices rise, other producers increase output to capitalize on the situation, undermining OPEC's efforts. This cycle repeats as prices eventually harden again. The decline in oil prices is likely to continue, and nothing can change this unless OPEC+ intervenes as usual by calling for further production cuts, resulting, as always, in losses for the organization. As mentioned before, OPEC+ is relying heavily on borrowing from external banking sources to cover its deficits, a trend that is expected to continue unless oil-producing countries reduce their expenses and cut their budgets. In addition, it is important to explore new sources of income. Governments must also focus on creating jobs for recent graduates despite the drop in oil revenues. The future looks challenging, with lower oil prices and reduced income from oil. Our governments need to find alternative revenue streams and provide job opportunities for new entrants to the labor market. We must face these new realities - weaker oil prices, higher expenses, and growing numbers of job seekers. These are the new challenges facing the Arabian Gulf countries amid a period of lower oil prices.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
McNally on OPEC+ Production Increase, Oil Price, Tariffs
Bob McNally, Rapidan Energy Group founder and president, discusses OPEC+'s recent decision to increase oil production for the month of August. He also talks about oil prices outlook, non-OPEC production, as well as the potential impact on markets coming from trade and tariff uncertainty. McNally speaks to Bloomberg's Joumanna Bercetche in Vienna, Austria. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's US crude imports jump 51% in H1 2025; Brazil inflows rise 80%: S&P Global
New Delhi: India's crude oil imports from the United States surged 51 per cent in the first half of 2025 to 271,000 barrels per day (b/d), compared with 180,000 b/d in the same period last year, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed. Crude shipments from Brazil rose even more sharply, growing 80 per cent year-on-year to 73,000 b/d from 41,000 b/d in H1 2024. The growth signals an increasing shift by Indian refiners towards non-OPEC sources of crude as the country looks to diversify its energy basket. 'Crude supplies from the US have been rising but have been limited to a few refiners in India. This allows room for other refiners to grow US imports further during the year,' said Abhishek Ranjan, South Asia oil research lead at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Lower Chinese purchases of US crude due to higher tariffs have created an opening for India to increase its imports and simultaneously reduce its trade deficit with Washington. At the same time, diplomatic outreach to Brazil is showing results. Petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri visited Brazil last year to explore energy cooperation, including expanding crude imports and collaborating on deepwater exploration. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also scheduled to visit Brazil later this month. US flows recover after dip Indian refiners had previously imported large volumes of US crude, but purchases slowed over the past two to three years as Russia emerged as a key supplier. Now, US flows are reviving. Modi's visit to the US in February and his discussions with American leadership on strengthening energy ties are seen as contributing factors. Trade dynamics have also played a role. The US announced reciprocal tariffs on India and other countries on April 2, but paused the increase for 90 days from April 10 to allow time for negotiations. Russia retains top supplier position Russia continued to be India's top crude oil supplier during January–June 2025, with shipments of 1.67 million b/d, marginally higher than 1.66 million b/d in the same period last year, according to Commodities at Sea (CAS) data from S&P Global. 'Volumes are rising again, supported by lower crude prices that enable higher volumes to be procured below the price cap. As the global oversupply is expected to continue putting pressure on prices, we expect Russian flows to remain at current levels, if not increase,' Ranjan said. Spot FOB Primorsk Urals crude exceeded the G7-led $60 per barrel price cap during the Israel-Iran conflict, crossing the threshold on June 13 and remaining above it until June 24. Platts assessed Urals FOB Primorsk at $56.32/b on July 1. Mixed trends from other suppliers Crude imports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia declined by 4 per cent and 2 per cent respectively in the six-month period. Shipments from Angola fell 22 per cent year-on-year, while inflows from Nigeria increased 26 per cent to 158,000 b/d. 'Gradually rising crude throughput in Dangote refinery will mean that those Nigerian crudes will not be able to support crude demand growth from India. There might be a few months of higher crude imports, but they should decline on an annual basis in terms of imports to India,' Ranjan added.
