Latest news with #oilDemand
Reuters
04-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Barclays raises Brent forecast to $72 per barrel for 2025
July 3 (Reuters) - Barclays on Thursday said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand. "Geopolitical tensions have eased as the U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold and the risk premium has evaporated, but price action has been reflecting better-than-expected fundamentals, in our view," said Barclays in a note. Despite an accelerated increase in output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia (OPEC+), global crude oil inventories declined in the second quarter, Barclays said. The tighter balance outlook is driven by stronger demand growth, weaker non-OPEC supply growth, and the International Energy Agency's (IEA) upward revision of baseline demand estimates, it said. Barclays raised its outlook for global demand growth by 260,000 barrels per day, with most of that coming from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, where it said "demand has been coming in stronger than expected". It now sees U.S. oil demand growing by 130,000 bpd this year, which is 100,000 bpd ahead of its previous estimate following a weather-related demand boost earlier in the year, although it still expects a gradual slowdown in activity. On the supply side, while OPEC+ will likely continue to phase out its voluntary production cuts at an accelerated pace, the actual output increase likely will continue to lag, Barclays said, pointing to pressure on some OPEC+ producers to curb output to compensate for earlier producing above their quotas. "Between March and May 2025, OPEC+ target increased by 548 kb/d but the group's output remained largely flat, resulting in better compliance, in aggregate," it said.
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Barclays raises Brent forecast to $72 per barrel for 2025
(Reuters) -Barclays on Thursday said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand. "Geopolitical tensions have eased as the U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold and the risk premium has evaporated, but price action has been reflecting better-than-expected fundamentals, in our view," said Barclays in a note. Despite an accelerated increase in output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia (OPEC+), global crude oil inventories declined in the second quarter, Barclays said. The tighter balance outlook is driven by stronger demand growth, weaker non-OPEC supply growth, and the International Energy Agency's (IEA) upward revision of baseline demand estimates, it said. Barclays raised its outlook for global demand growth by 260,000 barrels per day, with most of that coming from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, where it said "demand has been coming in stronger than expected". It now sees U.S. oil demand growing by 130,000 bpd this year, which is 100,000 bpd ahead of its previous estimate following a weather-related demand boost earlier in the year, although it still expects a gradual slowdown in activity. On the supply side, while OPEC+ will likely continue to phase out its voluntary production cuts at an accelerated pace, the actual output increase likely will continue to lag, Barclays said, pointing to pressure on some OPEC+ producers to curb output to compensate for earlier producing above their quotas. "Between March and May 2025, OPEC+ target increased by 548 kb/d but the group's output remained largely flat, resulting in better compliance, in aggregate," it said.
Times of Oman
01-07-2025
- Business
- Times of Oman
S&P Global warns geopolitical tensions may hit global oil demand
New Delhi: The latest report by S&P Global highlights that geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies could potentially have a negative impact on the global oil demand. Premasish Das, Executive Director for Oil Markets Research, noted that geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies, including U.S. tariffs, are slowing global growth, potentially reducing oil demand. China and the U.S. will see the biggest drop in refined fuel consumption. Despite this, India is expected to lead global oil demand growth, making diversification of crude imports a strategic necessity. Additionally, OPEC+ recently raised oil output by 411,000 b/d, triggering a 20% drop in Brent crude prices. At the same time, conflict between Iran and Israel briefly pushed prices above $80/b. The average oil price for 2025 is now forecasted at $68/b, though increased supply could bring it below $60/b by year-end. On the Indian side, the country's trade influence is also growing. Rahul Kapoor, Global Head of Shipping Research, highlighted India's reduced reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, down from 55% in 2019-2022 to 41% in 2024, due to rising Russian crude imports. He stressed that global trade strategy must now consider geopolitical risks and supply chain reconfiguration, placing India at a strategic advantage. On energy transition, Eduard Sala de Vedruna emphasized India's push to reach 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, though S&P expects the target to be met by 2032. The current capacity has surpassed 200 GW. While challenges like infrastructure and regulatory hurdles remain, government support and private investment are accelerating progress. Jenny Yang, Head of Power and Renewables Research, projected an 80% global rise in power demand by 2050. In India, non-fossil fuels are expected to make up 77% of power capacity by then.
Yahoo
21-06-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Why India's Budding EV Sector Has Opened Its Doors To China
For decades, China has driven the lion's share of oil demand growth thanks to its remarkable economic boom and large population. However, China is now losing its prominence in global oil markets due to a dramatic slowdown in its economy coupled with the country's ongoing electric vehicle revolution. Last year, nearly half of all new cars sold in China were electric vehicles, including both battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Indeed, China's rapid adoption of EVs, as well as rapid growth of high-speed rail and natural gas trucks, is displacing traditional fossil fuel demand, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting that China's oil demand will peak as early as 2027. Ironically, the country that is taking over China's mantle in world oil markets is also aspiring to follow in its EV footsteps: India. Unlike China, India's EV sector is still at its infancy, with electric vehicles accounting for just 2.5% of all cars sold in the country in 2024. However, India has big EV ambitions, with the Indian government having set a target for EVs to make up 30% of total passenger vehicle sales by 2030. To accomplish this, India's EV sector is forging close ties with Chinese EV manufacturers at a time when Washington has been keeping Chinese EV giants at bay. India is relying on Chinese EV tech to bridge the gap until the domestic sector is ready to compete on the global stage. Industry analysts note that without access to Chinese technologies—including batteries, drivetrain components, and EV software—India would likely face slower product rollouts, limited model variety, and higher costs during its growth phase. This marks a clear pivot from just a few years ago, when India restricted the operations of firms like BYD and banned popular Chinese apps such as TikTok and Shein after deadly clashes at the New Delhi appears to be taking a more calculated stance. In March, the government reduced tariffs on over 35 EV components, many of which are imported from China, making it easier for automakers to source critical parts. A few weeks later, India's Ministry of Heavy Industries unveiled a new EV policy slashing import duties on fully built EVs from 110% to 15%, provided manufacturers invest and set up local production. This dual-pronged approach aims to attract international players while building out domestic supply chains. Experts view these shifts as pragmatic. Leading Indian EV makers—such as Tata Motors, Ola Electric, and Mahindra & Mahindra—continue to depend on Chinese vendors for components like battery cells, power control units, and electric motors, even though assembly is carried out in India. 'The aim is to build a resilient domestic ecosystem, not to isolate it, unlike the more aggressive decoupling seen in the U.S. with China,' said Shubham Munde, senior analyst at intelligence firm Market Research Future. Yet this growing alignment between Indian and Chinese EV sectors is creating both opportunity and competition. MG Motor—a joint venture between India's JSW Group and China's state-owned automaker SAIC—has managed to double its market share over the past year, putting pressure on homegrown giants like Tata Motors. Its model, the MG Windsor, is now India's top-selling electric car, highlighting how joint ventures are gaining traction. At the same time, India's EV landscape remains deeply fragmented. According to Bernstein Research, just four legacy automakers dominate 80% of the electric mobility market, leaving over 150 EV startups struggling to establish a foothold in an increasingly competitive space. Government policy appears to be playing an outsized role in the EV trajectories of different countries. In its 2025 Electric Vehicles Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) cut both its near-term and long-term passenger EV adoption outlook in the United States for the first time ever, citing key policy changes including rollback of national fuel-economy targets as well as the removal of supportive elements of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) by the Trump administration. In contrast, S&P Global Mobility has forecast strong growth for India's nascent EV sector, projecting that production of battery-electric passenger vehicles will increase by 140% year-over-year in 2025 to roughly 301,400 units. That would represent about 6% of the estimated 5.16 million passenger vehicles expected to be built in India that year. Still, the road to India's 2030 goal may be steep. According to S&P, India would need to boost EV adoption by approximately 380 basis points annually to reach 30% market share—nearly double the current growth rate of around 200 basis points per year since 2021. Compounding the challenge is the lack of a unified long-term roadmap and the pending expiration of several state-level EV incentive programs. By Alex Kimani for More Top Reads From this article on Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Melden Sie sich an, um Ihr Portfolio aufzurufen. Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China's Oil Demand Will Peak Earlier Than Expected, IEA Says
(Bloomberg) -- China's oil demand will stop growing earlier than expected, reinforcing the outlook for a global peak and prolonged supply surplus this decade, the International Energy Agency said. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' As Part of a $45 Billion Push, ICE Prepares for a Vast Expansion of Detention Space As American Architects Gather in Boston, Retrofits Are All the Rage How E-Scooters Conquered (Most of) Europe The IEA slashed forecasts for Chinese consumption until 2030 by about 1 million barrels a day amid 'extraordinary' domestic sales of electric vehicles. It predicts the nation's demand — which has dominated world growth this century — will top out in 2027, and worldwide oil use two years after that. While the Israel-Iran conflict has stirred concern over immediate energy stockpiles, 'oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead,' IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. The agency was created in the 1970s to advise major consumers on energy policy. Crude prices surged the most in three years Friday as Israel launched airstrikes on OPEC member Iran, though the gains have since cooled as oil exports remain unaffected. US futures traded near $70 per barrel Monday, down 19% from last year's peak, amid expectations of an impending surplus. China's oil use will reach a maximum 16.9 million barrels a day by 2027, peaking roughly two years earlier than previously forecast, according to the IEA's report. Besides the ascent of EVs, high-speed rail and trucks powered with natural gas will help displace crude oil. China National Petroleum Corp., the country's largest energy producer, predicted in December that peak demand may arrive as early as this year. The IEA projects that global oil demand growth will slow to a 'trickle' the next few years, with consumption at a maximum of 105.5 million barrels a day in 2029 — roughly in line with last year's forecast. It would then decline slightly the following year. With China fading, the anticipated worldwide demand growth — amounting to about 2.5 million barrels a day total by 2030 — will largely come from India and other emerging economies. Forecasts for US oil demand were bolstered by roughly the amount that China's were cut as America cools on EVs. As Beijing recedes from the center of oil demand, the US will diminish in importance to global supplies after its shale oil boom helped provide about 90% of growth during the past decade. Investment is slowing as crude prices falter. 'When we look at oil market trends over the past decade, we see a remarkable double act' in China and the US, Birol said. 'But these dynamics are shifting.' America's output will nonetheless keep growing, complemented by Brazil, Canada and Guyana. About 5.1 million barrels of production capacity will be added globally this decade, double the increase in oil demand. Many leading players in the energy industry expect oil use will prove more tenacious than the IEA anticipates. Vitol Group, known as the world's biggest independent oil trader, and some Wall Street banks such as Bank of America Corp. have predicted that peak demand won't arrive until after 2030. Some of the IEA's other forecasts, such as its projection of a decline in coal demand, have missed the mark. At the extreme end of the spectrum, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries projects that oil demand will keep increasing until at least the middle of the century, though the cartel has backtracked on prior short-term forecasts that proved excessively bullish. While the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia has in recent months started to ramp up the production halted during the past few years, the IEA sees limited need for those extra barrels as rivals expand. 'OPEC+ may struggle to regain substantial market share,' according to the report. Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros American Mid: Hampton Inn's Good-Enough Formula for World Domination How a Tiny Middleman Could Access Two-Factor Login Codes From Tech Giants The Spying Scandal Rocking the World of HR Software US Allies and Adversaries Are Dodging Trump's Tariff Threats ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
