Latest news with #payrolls
Yahoo
05-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
June jobs report tops estimates: What it means for the Fed, markets
June jobs growth came in better-than-expected with 147,000 payrolls added, topping estimates of 106,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Morning Brief host Julie Hyman breaks down the drop in the unemployment rate and how the data may shape the Federal Reserve's next move. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. 147,000, 147,000. So, a big beat in terms of where we got those June June payroll numbers. That is again versus the 106,000 that economists had on average been estimating. The unemployment rate falling to 4.1% from 4.2% the prior month, and again, that is lower and therefore better than estimated. Also, average hourly earnings a little bit weaker than estimated, rising two tenths of a percent month over month and 3.7% on a year-over-year basis. The labor force participation rate ticking down by a tenth of 1%. I know that's something that a lot of economists have been focusing on as well. Um, and by the way, that change in non-farm payrolls in contrast with the manufacturing payrolls which fell by 7,000 versus the 2,000 that had been estimated by economists. One of the other things we've been watching for that I didn't mention is the effect of the tariffs. How will that be trickling through to not just the manufacturing economy, but beyond that, the sort of services that surround the manufacturing economy. Um, so there uh, again, we saw some weakness. If we look at what we're seeing in terms of the market reaction uh to these numbers here this morning, as we talked about before the numbers little change. We are seeing a little bit of an upside here to futures, um versus where they were before. Not a huge jump by any means, but a little bit of positive reaction. We tend to see that kind of ebb and flow throughout the morning as people take a closer look at the numbers and try to suss out exactly what they mean. We also are seeing a little bit of an increase in um, in Treasury yields, which is interesting as well given that this will feed into the debate around the Federal Reserve as well and what they will be doing next. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
05-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Charting the Global Economy: US Jobs Data Eases Pressure on Fed
Fresh US jobs figures took pressure off the Federal Reserve to consider an interest-rate cut later this month, likely leaving the central bank on hold at least until the fall. While employers added more jobs in June than forecast and the unemployment rate ticked lower, growth in private payrolls weakened.
Yahoo
04-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Wall Street got the jobs number so wrong
Wall Street analysts underestimated June's U.S. jobs report, expecting weak growth due to negative private payroll data and President Trump's angry social media posts. Today, analysts have explanations for their error: 'Seasonal noise' around government hiring skewed the numbers upward, they say, and payrolls are in fact pretty weak. Meanwhile, global markets saw mild declines today, partly from profit-taking after recent highs. You may have noticed yesterday that there was a bunch of chatter prior to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest report that the number of new jobs created might be lower than the 110,000 consensus estimate. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Pantheon Macroeconomics all said they thought the number might be weaker than predicted. The ADP private payroll report, published before the official government number, showed a 33,000 decline in jobs. In the event, the number of nonfarm payroll jobs increased by 147,000 in June, the bureau said—way above expectations. So why did so many people get this wrong? The fact that President Trump was tweeting angrily about U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell the night before distracted many, who read into those social media posts that perhaps he had seen a preview of the jobs report, didn't like it, and was—as usual—trying to set up Powell as the fall guy. That turned out to be a false signal. A day later, the analysts have sifted the labor data and now have explanations for their errors. The report does show signs of weakness in private company hiring, these analysts say, it's just that it is being masked by a sudden seasonal bump in government and education jobs. 'Private demand for labor is slowing,' Pantheon's Samuel Tombs said in a note to clients after the official number came out. 'The robust headline figure is entirely due to a massive 80K increase in state and local government payrolls, of which 64K are education jobs. … This large boost probably will unwind in July.' 'Private payrolls excluding healthcare and education rose by just 23K, well below the 50K average pace in the previous 12 months. Fundamentally, then, this is a weak report,' he said. UBS analyst Paul Donovan took a similar line: 'The US June employment report was strong enough in the headline to dispel ideas of a sudden US interest rate cut. It was troubling enough in the detail to suggest a more negative outlook for the US economy. Job creation was very narrowly focused.' As did Bruce Kasman et al at JPMorgan: 'The June surge in state and local hiring likely reflects seasonal noise.' Same tune at Daiwa Capital Markets: 'Private-sector payroll growth totaled only 74,000, only a bit more than half of the approximately 143,000 average in the prior six months and the weakest reading since last October when the Fed was initially easing monetary policy in a recalibration designed to support the labor market,' said Lawrence Werther and Brendan Stuart. Nonetheless, jobs are jobs. The overall unemployment rate stayed roughly the same. Analysts have largely been expecting Trump's tariff regime to damage the U.S. economy (tariffs make everything more expensive and thus suppress hiring) but that damage still hasn't really showed up—yet. 'The data suggest that firms are not yet slashing payrolls but are instead responding to policy uncertainty by slowing hiring,' Daiwa's Werther and Stuart said. The U.S. markets are closed today for the Independence Day holiday. In their absence, global markets—many of which are at or near their all-time highs—seem to be selling off a bit to solidify their recent gains. Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.76% in early trading. The biggest drama was in South Korea, where the Kospi lost 1.99% after a sharp recent climb. It's not clear if that was triggered by anything other than traders locking in their gains, but Trump's announcement that he would begin sending letters to foreign countries today imposing tariffs of between 10% and 70% likely did not help. Here's a snapshot of the action from this morning. S&P 500 futures are trading down 0.58% today. The S&P 500 hit yet another record high yesterday after rising 0.8%. Nasdaq Composite rose 1% yesterday. China's CSI 300 was up 0.36% this morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 was flat. Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.76% in early trading. South Korea's Kospi lost 1.99% after a sharp recent climb. This story was originally featured on
Bloomberg
02-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
New Employment Numbers Ignite US Slowdown Worries
Employment at US companies fell in June for the first time in more than two years, reflecting a drop in services payrolls that may raise concerns about a more pronounced labor market slowdown. Private-sector payrolls decreased 33,000 last month after a downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday. None of the economists in a Bloomberg survey expected a decline. The sobering numbers came a day after Trump administration data showed job openings unexpectedly rose in May as firings declined. That report exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US Private Payrolls Show Surprise Decline in June: ADP
Private-sector US payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 last month following a downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday, the first decline in more than two years. Michael McKee reports on Bloomberg Television. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
