Latest news with #playerperformance
Telegraph
24-07-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Players your Premier League club must sign
Artificial Intelligence (AI) can now be used in football to simulate how a player will perform with fellow team-mates before a club decides to buy them. So says Dr Ryan Beal, co-founder and chief executive of SentientSports, who has been asked by Telegraph Sport to use his data model to predict the dream signing for each of the 20 Premier League clubs. We have also asked for a verdict from AI on the biggest deal of the summer – Liverpool's signing of Florian Wirtz, who AI has been tracking since 2021. 'Where we come in is saying: 'It's easy to find those players but what's not easy to predict is how well they will perform in your team',' Beal explains. 'It's quite easy to go into the top five European leagues and find who's scoring the most goals and who's got the best stats and then effectively go after them as a transfer strategy. But we spend time on simulation models and looking at what changes when a player moves from one team to another, to another league, new team-mates, languages, and encapsulate them in a model to provide better insights for decision-makers. 'So: 'Here's a list of 20 players, these are the ones we think fit best, albeit they're not all available to buy – but at least it gives a flavour of what the technology can do in terms of recruitment'.' Beal explains how his company, whose board includes former Manchester United executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward, operates. 'We've broken it down to a few different areas,' Beal, 29, says. 'One is teamwork, so looking at models I've built through my PhD on how players work together. Then predict that forward. So we take a player out of one team, put them in another and simulate what complementary playing styles they have with new team-mates.' A simple example for Beal – a Southampton fan – is James Ward-Prowse, now at West Ham United, who is extremely effective at set-pieces and thrives with a more traditional centre-forward who is willing to attack the ball. 'It goes down to language as well,' Beal says. 'What languages are in common? Jobe Bellingham moves to Borussia Dortmund. How many of those players speak English? You are going down to that level of granularity in a recruitment report to see what players might have to adapt to. We do the exact same thing with the manager: looking at playing styles, formations, types of football.' Using data is not new. What is developing rapidly, however, is just how widespread and detailed its use is in the sport – and how more clubs are becoming heavily reliant upon it when it comes to recruitment. Brighton & Hove Albion and Brentford have become the poster boys for such an approach, proving that 'smaller' teams can be highly competitive. More sophisticated use of AI appears the next stage. 'Going into Covid, a lot of teams started to turn their eye to what they could do with data. They had seen our research so got in touch to help understand how AI can help, which led to us setting up the business,' says Beal. Owners such as Brighton's Tony Bloom and Brentford's Matthew Benham, who both came through the betting industry, have their own bespoke data models, which they are extremely protective of. In even more of a shift towards data, Brighton let go most of their full-time recruitment scouts. It naturally led to a fear of jobs being lost and traditional scouting – eyes and ears – which allows assessments to be made of temperament, character and body language, being dispensed with. 'Some clubs are quite siloed. We've got some really clever data people. But then you have still got classic football people who are very good at what they do. But there's that disconnect between them,' Beal explains. 'We've been to clubs where you have the data team on one side of the room and the scouting team on the other. The scouting team wouldn't even talk to us, whereas the head of data is really interested in what we are doing. 'The scouting team is a bit threatened by data. But I just see it as a tool. Ten years in the future everyone will be using these tools – AI across all industries. 'It will be a hybrid role in the future. There will be this middle ground of the really 'footbally' data people and the data-led scouts. I just don't think they'll be separate. You need to do a bit of both because there's so much more data being collected, so many different ways of analysing. Both skills are really important and then it's all about who uses AI best. 'The fact you can analyse so many more players so much more quickly than having 70 scouts across Europe. You can do that at the touch of a button with a much smaller team.' Character studies raise moral questions While Beal and his team crunch the data on how players will play together, there is one area where he is reluctant to predict AI will be used: examining a player's character. 'It's dangerous because of learning biases,' Beal says. 'You can look at the examples of different things that have come out in the media over recent years and certain newspapers favouring certain players. It's dangerous in terms of AI learning those biases. So it might, inadvertently, learn your opinion. If I train AI based on all your articles, it might just pick out things you want it to. That type of thing would come through. 'I would be reluctant to get too involved in that because this is people's lives. It's almost a moral question and it's an interesting area that nobody's really gone into, apart from psychologists and experts in how the brain works. But I am always surprised that clubs don't do more on the cognitive side and almost like a job interview as to how a player fits and their character when you're spending hundreds of millions on players.' So, what is the next step? 'On the performance side it will be almost putting a brain at the centre of everything: using AI to translate data for all staff,' Beal explains. He expects clubs to start hiring chief AI officers which has already happened in the United States. 'We have spoken about this to clubs where we give an AI hub which brings in all their own content and anybody across the club can ask questions around what somebody else knows. So, you're building those efficiencies in to say 'give me a scouting report on this team'. It's a little bit forward thinking and it needs a lot of buy-in from coaches and owners but it's where we think this goes in five years' time.' Your club's ideal signing... according to AI Arsenal: Charles De Ketelaere (Atalanta) Could offer strong value for Mikel Arteta, with his link-up play well-suited to Arsenal's attacking midfield. Aston Villa: Julian Ryerson (Dortmund) Established chemistry from 77 appearances alongside Donyell Malen and Ian Maatsen in a system similar to Villa's. Bournemouth: Álex Remiro (Real Sociedad) A strong replacement for goalkeeper Kepa, offering a good tactical fit and Spanish roots that align well with Andoni Iraola's style. Brentford: Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad) Could help fill the significant void left by Bryan Mbeumo on the right wing Brighton: Eric Smith (St. Pauli) Can offer valuable depth at centre-back Burnley: Jonas Wind (Wolfsburg) A realistic and well-suited option to boost Burnley's attack, with the club lacking firepower last season. Chelsea: Xavi Simons (RB Leipzig) A strong fit and offers both tactical and chemistry alignment with existing players. Crystal Palace: Maximilian Mittelstädt (Stuttgart) Offers an attacking option alongside Tyrick Mitchell, with our AI highlighting strong chemistry fit despite some tactical adaptation required. Everton: Dodô (Fiorentina) An exciting right-back option for David Moyes, with Seamus Coleman ageing and Nathan Patterson out of favour. At 5ft 4in he may need to adapt physically to the Premier League, his talent and energy could add real value. Fulham: Philipp Lienhart (Freiburg) Offers tactical familiarity with Fulham's defensive style and adding depth to a key position. Leeds United: Mads Hermansen (Leicester) A candidate for Leeds' new No 1, replacing Karl Darlow after Illan Meslier was dropped. Liverpool: Jan Paul van Hecke (Brighton) Flagged by our AI as a strong tactical and chemistry fit, with Liverpool needing to add depth at centre-back despite the strength of the Van Dijk–Konaté partnership. Manchester City: Aleksandar Pavlović (Bayern Munich) Good back-up to Rodri, offering a better developmental fit than Martin Zubimendi amid City's search for central midfield reinforcements. Manchester United: Angelo Stiller (Stuttgart) A smart addition to bolster midfield depth alongside Kobbie Mainoo and Manuel Ugarte, while providing a long-term replacement for ageing players like Casemiro. Newcastle United: Nico Schlotterbeck (Dortmund) Centre-back option after missing out on Marc Guéhi; a good fit to strengthen the defensive line. Nottingham Forest: Tim Kleindienst (Borussia Mönchengladbach) Can compete with 33-year-old Chris Wood, bringing Bundesliga experience and 17 goal involvements to bolster Forest's attack. Sunderland: Flynn Downes (Southampton) After Jobe Bellingham's departure, a potential signing in midfield. Tottenham Hotspur: Julian Brandt (Dortmund) An attacking option under Thomas Frank, after failing to land Bryan Mbeumo. West Ham United: David Raum (RB Leipzig) Ideal left-back replacement for Emerson, offering strong tactical fit and experience to strengthen West Ham's defensive line. Wolves: Georges Mikautadze (Lyon) Could replace Matheus Cunha, offering depth and attacking quality alongside Alexander Sorloth and Strand-Larsen up front. Deal of the summer – Florian Wirtz to Liverpool Based on simulations, Wirtz's transfer shows promising compatibility metrics with a chemistry rating of 80 and tactical fit rating of 73, indicating strong integration potential with Arne Slot's squad. For comparison, last season's Federico Chiesa transfer rated 66 for chemistry and 65 for tactical fit. Chemistry analysis (Rating: 80/100) SentientSports' simulation predicts Wirtz will develop strong partnerships with key Liverpool players, including Mohamed Salah, Alexis Mac Allister, Luis Díaz, Darwin Núñez and Dominik Szoboszlai. His German fluency provides immediate communication advantages with five current squad members, while 10 players fall within a similar age range, supporting long-term squad-building prospects. Tactical fit analysis (Rating: 73/100) Playing-style compatibility: Wirtz shows excellent alignment with Liverpool's tactical approach across multiple areas. Both operate at a very high tempo with structured attacking play, favour low directness in build-up, maintain high defensive lines for aggressive pressing, and demonstrate nearly identical counter-attacking and chance creation capabilities. Formation challenges: The primary adaptation requirement involves Liverpool's preferred formations. Wirtz lacks experience in Liverpool's 4-3-3 (58.7 per cent usage) and 4-2-3-1 (36.1 per cent usage) systems, though elite players typically adapt quickly under proper coaching.
The Guardian
12-07-2025
- Sport
- The Guardian
Alessia Russo rises above insults to prove she's worth her England place
Dare mention Alessia Russo was a good pick for player of the match after her three assists against the Netherlands, without an afterword on Lauren James also being superb or highlighting the performances of Jess Carter or Hannah Hampton or any of the others in an all-around strong showing, and you will be accused of being influenced by PRusso. The not-so-witty merging of PR and the player's name has become an insult online, used to denigrate anyone who suggests that Russo may be quite a good player. Your opinion cannot possibly be right; it's Russo's good PR team that has led you to believe that she is good. You have been influenced, you are a sheep, you have been blinded by the shiny Adidas adverts and the magazine cover shoots. Open your eyes, they scream into the online abyss, Russo is an average player, someone else was better, anyone else was better. Russo does have a very good PR team. As people like to point out, her agent is her brother, Luca Russo, who is the vice-president of women's football Europe, for the global sports, music and entertainment agency Wasserman. She is on mayonnaise bottles, the front cover of Women's Health or Elle or GQ, she is on billboards wearing Oakley sunglasses and presenting awards at the Baftas because he is doing a good job. But, at what point do we accept that her agents are able to do that job precisely because Russo is good at doing hers? At what point do we stop joking about and policing how women's football players attempt to maximise their income from their short playing careers? And at what point are we allowed to just praise a player for a good performance without having to compare them with every other player who is also good and has also had a good game? When did people become, frankly, nasty? Generational talent James would have been a worthy winner of the player of the match award after her two goals against the Netherlands in Zurich, but Russo was an equally worthy winner. Is Russo a better footballer than James? They are very different types of player, but probably not. Frankly, there are very few players in international football better than James. If awards were handed to the most technically gifted player, objectively, on any pitch there would be only one winner from each team. If that was the only criterion for the Ballon d'Or or Fifa's The Best women's football player award or Uefa's women's player of year award, there may be one winner from the start of a player's career until their retirement, and it would probably be Aitana Bonmatí. The problem too is that individual awards are slightly silly in a team sport. James would not have had her first goal without Russo, and Russo would not have had her three assists had James, Georgia Stanway and Ella Toone not converted. It is a team sport and the team award is all three points. Against the Netherlands, Russo was brilliant, becoming the first person to make three assists in one match at the Euros. 'Oh, sick,' said Chloe Kelly after that stat was relayed to her. 'She's unbelievable. On the ball, off the ball, she works so hard and yeah, she probably did deserve a goal. But three assists, I think she'll be happy with that.' Russo, often criticised for not scoring enough, showed why she is so much more than a goalscorer and anyone who has watched her growth since the 2022 Euros, when a backheel against Sweden in the semi-finals put her on front and back pages, will have seen how much her all-round game has grown and why she is one of the most coveted players in the WSL. Sign up to Moving the Goalposts No topic is too small or too big for us to cover as we deliver a twice-weekly roundup of the wonderful world of women's football after newsletter promotion 'She is a massively important player for us,' said Lauren Hemp. 'She is incredible, she is so selfless. She will set players up. It is not just scoring that makes her an unbelievable player, it is the things she does off the ball as well. She creates loads of chances for everyone else. She's a great person and we all want to see her do well. It's mad that she hasn't scored yet because she has contributed so much to the team winning. It's only a matter of time until she is scoring anyway, so we won't be having this conversation for very long.' Russo is so valuable because of that off-the-ball work. So few centre-forwards are as effective at holding up the ball, tracking back and creating opportunities. The Arsenal player's three assists at the Stadion Letzigrund mean she has seven goal involvements in her past seven games at the Euros. She is very good at football. James is also very good at football. The two things can exist at the same time and we can celebrate both.
The Guardian
12-07-2025
- Sport
- The Guardian
Alessia Russo rises above insults to prove she's worth her England place
Dare mention Alessia Russo was a good pick for player of the match after her three assists against the Netherlands, without an afterword on Lauren James also being superb or highlighting the performances of Jess Carter or Hannah Hampton or any of the others in an all-around strong showing, and you will be accused of being influenced by PRusso. The not-so-witty merging of PR and the player's name has become an insult online, used to denigrate anyone who suggests that Russo may be quite a good player. Your opinion cannot possibly be right; it's Russo's good PR team that has led you to believe that she is good. You have been influenced, you are a sheep, you have been blinded by the shiny Adidas adverts and the magazine cover shoots. Open your eyes, they scream into the online abyss, Russo is an average player, someone else was better, anyone else was better. Russo does have a very good PR team. As people like to point out, her agent is her brother, Luca Russo, who is the vice-president of women's football Europe, for the global sports, music and entertainment agency Wasserman. She is on mayonnaise bottles, the front cover of Women's Health or Elle or GQ, she is on billboards wearing Oakley sunglasses and presenting awards at the Baftas because he is doing a good job. But, at what point do we accept that her agents are able to do that job precisely because Russo is good at doing hers? At what point do we stop joking about and policing how women's football players attempt to maximise their income from their short playing careers? And at what point are we allowed to just praise a player for a good performance without having to compare them with every other player who is also good and has also had a good game? When did people become, frankly, nasty? Generational talent James would have been a worthy winner of the player of the match award after her two goals against the Netherlands in Zurich, but Russo was an equally worthy winner. Is Russo a better footballer than James? They are very different types of player, but probably not. Frankly, there are very few players in international football better than James. If awards were handed to the most technically gifted player, objectively, on any pitch there would be only one winner from each team. If that was the only criterion for the Ballon d'Or or Fifa's The Best women's football player award or Uefa's women's player of year award, there may be one winner from the start of a player's career until their retirement, and it would probably be Aitana Bonmatí. The problem too is that individual awards are slightly silly in a team sport. James would not have had her first goal without Russo, and Russo would not have had her three assists had James, Georgia Stanway and Ella Toone not converted. It is a team sport and the team award is all three points. Against the Netherlands, Russo was brilliant, becoming the first person to make three assists in one match at the Euros. 'Oh, sick,' said Chloe Kelly after that stat was relayed to her. 'She's unbelievable. On the ball, off the ball, she works so hard and yeah, she probably did deserve a goal. But three assists, I think she'll be happy with that.' Russo, often criticised for not scoring enough, showed why she is so much more than a goalscorer and anyone who has watched her growth since the 2022 Euros, when a backheel against Sweden in the semi-finals put her on front and back pages, will have seen how much her all-round game has grown and why she is one of the most coveted players in the WSL. Sign up to Moving the Goalposts No topic is too small or too big for us to cover as we deliver a twice-weekly roundup of the wonderful world of women's football after newsletter promotion 'She is a massively important player for us,' said Lauren Hemp. 'She is incredible, she is so selfless. She will set players up. It is not just scoring that makes her an unbelievable player, it is the things she does off the ball as well. She creates loads of chances for everyone else. She's a great person and we all want to see her do well. It's mad that she hasn't scored yet because she has contributed so much to the team winning. It's only a matter of time until she is scoring anyway, so we won't be having this conversation for very long.' Russo is so valuable because of that off-the-ball work. So few centre-forwards are as effective at holding up the ball, tracking back and creating opportunities. The Arsenal player's three assists at the Stadion Letzigrund mean she has seven goal involvements in her past seven games at the Euros. She is very good at football. James is also very good at football. The two things can exist at the same time and we can celebrate both.
New York Times
27-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Every NHL team's worst value contract in 2024-25
In today's NHL, players aren't just judged on their ability; they're graded on value and efficiency — how large is their impact relative to their contract? Last week, we looked at some of the best bargain contracts in the NHL from this past season. Now let's look at players who didn't live up to their contracts in 2024-25 and how much longer those deals will be on the books. Advertisement Here's how we'll conduct this exercise. • We'll be using Dom Luszczyszyn's player model as a measuring stick. Net Rating provides an all-in-one performance metric that weighs factors such as point production, play-driving, defensive impact, penalties drawn, blocked shots, faceoffs, penalty-kill impact and more. That impact is then translated to a market value — what that player's contributions should be worth — and that market value is compared to their actual cap hit. • A player isn't 'bad' if he ends up on one of the inefficient lists. It just means he wasn't quite worth his cap hit in 2024-25, at least from a statistical perspective. There are plenty of high-end NHLers who you'll see throughout the piece, many of whom actually played very well this season. • We'll only be identifying players who underperformed their cap hit by at least $1 million. • No goalies will be analyzed. • There are blind spots in the model, like any statistical measure — it's not perfect. With that in mind, I used the model to generate an initial list of players for each team, but I occasionally exercised personal discretion to remove a player from the 'inefficient' contracts pile if I felt there was an obvious flaw or blind spot in the model's evaluation. • Players who spent the overwhelming majority of the season injured (Tyler Seguin, for example) or on LTIR weren't included. • Players who changed teams midseason weren't included either. Trevor Zegras: He burst onto the scene as an immediate game-breaker, scoring 61 points as a 20-year-old rookie and 65 points as a 21-year-old sophomore. However, the last two years under former Ducks head coach Greg Cronin were wildly disappointing. Zegras suffered injuries, which hindered his speed. His offensive creativity was stifled by Cronin, and he was frequently shuffled between center and the wing. Advertisement Zegras' talent level and early career scoring resume suggest that he should return to being a bona fide top-six forward in Philadelphia. This year, however, he failed to live up to the deal. Zegras produced a modest 32 points in 57 games, but more concerningly, had some of the worst two-way play-driving metrics in the league, primarily on the defensive end. Ryan Strome scored exactly 41 points for the third consecutive season. That doesn't sound too bad for $5 million, but the problem is that he gives back a lot of that value with very poor defensive metrics. Alex Killorn is still a decent play-driver at 35 — the Ducks outshot and outscored opponents during his five-on-five shifts — but the 19 goals and 37 points he scored aren't enough relative to his steep $6.25 million AAV. Elias Lindholm: Lindholm isn't the No. 1 center the Bruins were hoping for. He was excellent defensively in difficult matchups, but his 17 goals and 47 points aren't enough to justify a $7.75 million AAV. He turns 31 in December and has six years of term remaining, so there must be some long-term concern about how this deal will age. Charlie McAvoy had a down year, scoring just 23 points in 50 games, which marked the fewest points he's scored per game in any NHL season. Additionally, his two-way results were above average, but not in the elite range to which we're accustomed. However, on a big-picture level, there's no reason to worry about McAvoy's contract. He's still a bona fide No. 1 defenseman, and while his $9.5 million cap hit is steep, it's a figure he's lived up to when at his best. Just chalk this one up to an off year. If this exercise included goaltenders, Jeremy Swayman would have been far and away the Bruins' most inefficient contract for 2024-25. Swayman posted an .892 save percentage in 58 games, while in year one of a brand-new $8.25 million AAV contract extension. Owen Power: Power has faced growing pains, especially defensively, but the Sabres shouldn't be too worried about his contract. He's still only 22, has flashed impressive offensive skills, is a No. 1 pick and it's not exactly easy to hit your ceiling when you're playing on a bad team with subpar defense partners. Power was one of the 20 highest-paid defensemen in the NHL this past season and didn't live up to that pay grade, but with his talent, six years remaining on the deal and the skyrocketing salary cap, this is a contract that he should eventually grow into. Advertisement If anything, Mattias Samuelsson has the most problematic contract on the Sabres. He is injury-prone and has seen his play regress significantly. He has another five years left on his deal and could be a prime buyout candidate. Sam Lafferty and Connor Clifton were slightly overpaid further down the lineup. Jonathan Huberdeau: He was much better this season, scoring 28 goals (more than double the year before) and 62 points. His bounce-back was one of the reasons the Flames were surprisingly competitive this season. However, 62 points is still a far cry from the 90-100 point player you're expected to be when you're paid $10.5 million per year. Rasmus Andersson had a down year, producing just 31 points (his lowest output since the 2020-21 season) and struggling defensively in a hard matchups role. Context is key, however. Andersson played through a broken fibula late in the season, and he was forced to do a lot of heavy lifting driving his own pair as he mentored his young partner, Kevin Bahl. He should bounce back next season, and most would actually view his $4.55 million cap hit as a bargain. Andrei Svechnikov: The Hurricanes definitely need a lot more than the 20 goals and 48 points Svechnikov scored in 72 games at an expensive $7.75 million cap hit (tied for second highest on the Canes), but there's important context to bear in mind. For starters, Svechnikov tore his ACL in 2023. It often takes players a full two years to return to the level of play they were at before an ACL tear. NHL Edge shows that Svechnikov's top speed and speed bursts over 20 miles per hour were significantly down this season compared to earlier in his career. He was also constantly adjusting to different linemates all year, which isn't ideal for chemistry. It's encouraging that he bounced back in the playoffs with eight goals in 15 games. This is likely just a down year for Svechnikov, rather than a sign that the Canes should be worried about his contract. Advertisement Carolina intentionally signed Dmitry Orlov to an inflated cap hit contract in 2023 to keep the contract term down to two years. The idea was that he could be a steady top-four stopgap until youngsters such as Alexander Nikishin were ready to make an NHL impact. The plan has worked out exactly as designed, as he's coming off the books just as his game is starting to atrophy. TJ Brodie: The Blackhawks had several veterans who underperformed to varying degrees, but the good news is that most of them will come off the books soon. Brodie, who has already cleared waivers for a buyout, and Alec Martinez were often liabilities rather than stabilizing veteran presences. Jason Dickinson's offense regressed to only 16 points in 59 games. However, the bigger surprise was that his defensive impact, which had been consistently excellent, also wavered. Dickinson only drove 40.4 percent of expected goals during his five-on-five minutes, although it should be noted that he handled very difficult matchups. Philipp Kurashev and Joe Veleno didn't contribute much, despite earning over $2 million each. Veleno has already been shipped out to Seattle. Nick Foligno's production isn't worth $4.5 million at this stage in his career, but this isn't a contract the Hawks regret. He's paid more for his leadership and intangibles, plus there's only one year remaining. And while Tyler Bertuzzi was wildly inconsistent at times and couldn't drive play, he finished the season with 23 goals, which isn't terrible for his $5.5 million cap hit. Miles Wood: Wood had a down year, scoring just eight points in 37 games in an injury-plagued 2024-25 campaign. He took undisciplined penalties, posted below-average defensive numbers and was occasionally healthy scratched as well. Damon Severson: The Blue Jackets' cap sheet is pretty clean compared to most teams that miss the playoffs. Damon Severson's deal (six years remaining at a $6.25 million AAV) is the exception — he's been deeply inconsistent and mistake-prone — and you'd toss Elvis Merzlikins (two years left at a $5.4 million cap hit) in as well if you included goaltenders. Other than that, Columbus has done well not to saddle itself with overpaid veterans. Advertisement Jamie Benn: It's impressive that the Stars have been able to ice a Cup-contending team for years despite having nearly $20 million invested in Benn and Tyler Seguin (Seguin didn't make the inefficient list for this season because he only played 20 games). They've both been productive top-nine forwards, but neither has performed at an elite level, despite being two of the highest-paid forwards in the Western Conference. Benn only scored 16 goals and 49 points in the regular season. He was even worse in the playoffs, mustering just a single goal and two assists in 18 postseason appearances. Matt Dumba was a poor fit in Dallas from day one. He was the only defenseman on the Stars who had a negative five-on-five goal differential during the regular season, despite playing relatively sheltered third-pair minutes. It speaks volumes that he was healthy scratched for the entire playoffs, even early on when Miro Heiskanen was unavailable. Ben Chiarot: The Red Wings have a lot of promising, young players, but their inability to punch through as a playoff team largely comes down to an expensive veteran supporting cast that hasn't lived up to its end of the bargain. Detroit's blue line beyond Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson is a mess in particular, with none of Chiarot, Justin Holl or Jeff Petry performing up to their salaries. J.T. Compher had a solid first season in Motown last year, but his production declined to just 11 goals and 32 points in 76 games this season. He didn't have the best two-way numbers either (Red Wings controlled just 44 percent of shot attempts with Compher on the ice at five-on-five), which resulted in him underperforming his $5.1 million AAV. Andrew Copp is in a similar boat. He's above-average defensively and can handle tough matchups, but his offense (23 points in 56 games) and overall impact don't move the needle enough to justify his $5.625 million cap hit. Advertisement Vladimir Tarasenko slumped to only 11 goals this year, far below what you'd expect considering his $4.75 million AAV. Darnell Nurse: Everybody knows the Nurse situation at this point. He's a toolsy top-four defender prone to making the occasional big mistake and playoff inconsistencies. Nurse is nowhere close to being elite, which is the expectation when you're one of the highest-paid defensemen in the NHL. Last summer, the Oilers also invested $10 million of cap space toward Viktor Arvidsson, Adam Henrique and Jeff Skinner. Their Net Rating was just high enough to avoid making this list, but for all intents and purposes, those were inefficient contracts as well. Arvidsson scored only 27 points in 67 games despite getting tons of opportunities on Leon Draisaitl's line. Henrique doesn't score or defend at a high enough level to live up to his $3 million AAV. Skinner, meanwhile, was only dressed for five playoff games. Those three signings looked reasonable at the time, but in hindsight, it ended up being a poor investment, especially since it indirectly cost them Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg later on. None: The Panthers have managed their books exceptionally well. Their roster is littered with excellent-value contracts, and for the second year in a row, they weren't held back by any inefficient deals. Drew Doughty: He missed more than half the season with a fractured ankle. When he came back, the 35-year-old showed noticeable signs of decline offensively and defensively. Doughty can still hang in a top-four role, and perhaps better health can help him bounce back next season, but he's one of the most-overpaid defensemen in the league at $11 million. Tanner Jeannot packed a punch physically, which had a useful impact, but his offensive contributions were non-existent (13 points in 67 games). Advertisement Yakov Trenin: His size, forechecking and defensive acumen are useful, but at a $3.5 million cap hit, you'd expect him to perform at the level of a bona fide third-line player. That didn't come to fruition as Trenin produced a measly 15 points in 76 games. His five-on-five points-per-60 rate ranked seventh worst among all NHL forwards who played at least 750 minutes in 2024-25. Besides that, the Wild did invest their dollars pretty efficiently. And that was a necessity when you factor in the nearly $15 million in dead cap space that Ryan Suter's and Zach Parise's buyouts consumed. You could argue that paying Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno a combined $8 million may not be ideal, considering their middling offensive profiles. However, those two bring enough other qualities with their physicality and defensive play to make their deals passable. Patrik Laine: The Canadiens had several middle-class players in the $3-5.5 million cap hit neighborhood who didn't live up to their contracts. The preceding Marc Bergevin regime signed a large chunk of those deals, and the good news is that many of these contracts are set to expire soon. Laine's contract stands out as the most inefficient deal on Montreal's books, but that trade was still a smart, sensible gamble for several reasons: Veteran forwards Josh Anderson (15 goals, 27 points) and Brendan Gallagher (21 goals, 38 points) were significantly better than in 2023-24, but they still aren't worth their cap hits. David Savard was an important stopgap to play tough top-four minutes in past years while the club's young defenders developed, but he slowed down significantly this year. He averaged 16:35, and yet the Canadiens still controlled only 43.6 percent of scoring chances and less than 40 percent of actual goals during his five-on-five shifts. Advertisement Montreal's bets on Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook as premium reclamation projects haven't panned out yet. Injuries have derailed Dach as he's fallen short of 60 games played in each of his first three seasons in Montreal. He struggled mightily in the second-line center role, unable to score points, drive offense or play reliable defense. However, he's shown in years past that he has the talent to be an effective top-nine winger, so shifting him back to the flank could unlock better form. Newhook, meanwhile, has shown flashes but hasn't been consistent enough, generating just 26 points (15 of which were goals) in 82 games. Brady Skjei: The Predators didn't have as many overpriced contracts as you might have guessed after their miserable 2024-25 season, but their two misses were colossal. Skjei was torched defensively all year, as Nashville was outscored by a whopping 28 goals during his five-on-five minutes. Offensively, he only mustered 33 points. He should improve in year two — he had to adjust to a drastic systems change, his PDO was low and the whole team around him struggled — but this is a worrisome contract long term. Steven Stamkos went from scoring 40 goals and being over the point-per-game mark with Tampa in 2023-24 to scoring a modest 53 points. It's not entirely his fault because the Predators didn't have the right playmaking center for him to play with. Ondrej Palat: He scored just 15 goals and 28 points despite playing on Jack Hughes' line for most of the season. Palat, 34, was better in the playoffs and can still help a team with his experience and two-way intelligence, but he doesn't belong in any contending team's top six. Dougie Hamilton's future will be fascinating to watch. The 32-year-old offensive defenseman is still a valuable contributor, but he isn't worth $9 million, and the Devils' right-side defense has a logjam (Johnathan Kovacevic and Brett Pesce are locked up long term, not to mention that Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey could be NHL-ready next season). Luke Hughes also looks ready to be The Guy offensively for New Jersey's blue line, which makes Hamilton's skill set less of a necessity. Erik Haula's $3.15 million cap hit was already cleared out in a shrewd salary dump trade with Nashville. Advertisement Anthony Duclair: The Islanders have several overpriced contracts with significant term remaining on their books. Duclair, who scored 24 goals in 2023-24, limped to just 11 points in 44 games in an injury-plagued season. He failed to ingratiate himself with Patrick Roy, which led to the latter savagely ripping him in a news conference, with Duclair subsequently stepping away from the team. Ryan Pulock was once an incredible top-four defenseman for New York during its contention window in 2020 and 2021, when the club made back-to-back Eastern Conference final appearances. His performance has heavily deteriorated since then. I'd argue that the Net Rating model penalizes him too harshly (he still plays difficult top-four minutes and matchups), but there's no question that he's bent under the pressure of that workload. Pierre Engvall was better down the stretch, but 15 points in 62 games and mediocre play-driving results won't cut it at a $3 million AAV. Bo Horvat performed closer to the level of a $7 million center than an $8.5 million one, according to Net Rating, but some context is required. He spent most of the year without Mathew Barzal, his usual running mate, because of the latter's injury troubles. That drop-off in linemate quality explains why Horvat's production slipped from 68 points in 2023-24 to 57 points this past season. Horvat should bounce back to being a 65ish point player if Barzal can stay healthy, at which point his contract would be fair value rather than inefficient. At $2.5 million, Casey Cizikas is paid to be an elite fourth-liner. He was exactly that at one stage in his career, but the 34-year-old is closer to being a run-of-the-mill fourth-liner these days. Chris Kreider: The Rangers' aging, expensive core mightily underperformed this season. Kreider was restricted by a back injury and illness that he played through. He tallied just 22 goals and eight assists in 68 games, a major drop-off from the 39 goals and 75 points he produced the year prior. He scored just 1.03 points per 60 at five-on-five, which ranked in the bottom 20 among all NHL forwards who played at least 750 minutes in 2024-25. Hopefully, better health can lead to a bounce-back in Anaheim. Advertisement Mika Zibanejad is no longer the first-line-caliber center he's paid to be — he doesn't drive play or score enough at five-on-five. The five years he has left at a $8.5 million AAV are problematic, but could a permanent shift to the wing be revitalizing? When J.T. Miller was acquired from the Canucks, Zibanejad was shifted to Miller's right wing at times. The two seemed to click, and Zibanejad tallied 33 points in the final 32 games of the season. Artemi Panarin remains an offensive star, but his production dropped by 31 points compared to 2023-24, falling just shy of the 90-point mark despite being one of the highest-paid players in the league. David Perron: The Senators' cap sheet is in a much stronger position than years past, with no true deadweight contracts holding them back. Perron had a slow start, with only four points in his first 20 games, but that was understandable, given that he was playing catch-up due to an injury and a health scare involving his daughter. He found his groove down the stretch and was much closer to being the player the Senators were hoping for when they signed him to a two-year deal. Claude Giroux is still a key cog of Ottawa's top six, but he slowed down a bit this year, with 50 points and slightly below-average play-driving metrics. He was closer to performing at the level of a $5 million-ish forward rather than a $6.5 million player. Sean Couturier: Philadelphia doesn't have as many bloated contracts as you might expect a non-playoff team to be stuck with. Couturier is the only clear overpayment: He's still an above-average two-way center, but his offensive game (45 points in 79 games) has taken a notable hit since returning in 2023 from a near two-year absence due to injuries. Owen Tippett had a down year, scoring 20 goals and 43 points. However, he was a near 30-goal scorer in the two years before that, is in his prime at age 26 and his contract will look better as the cap increases. Tippett's deal shouldn't be an issue — it profiles as closer to fair value than an overpayment moving forward. Advertisement Erik Karlsson: He has been a far cry from the 101-point, Norris Trophy-winning defenseman the Penguins thought they might get when they acquired him two summers ago. He's lackadaisical and mistake-prone defensively, and his offensive impact (53 points) has been good, but not elite. Karlsson has played closer to the level of a $6 million defenseman, according to Net Rating, which is a steep gap compared to his $10 million cap hit. Ryan Graves has been a disastrous fit in Pittsburgh. He's essentially a No. 6 defenseman locked up long term at a $4.5 million AAV. Kris Letang's game is rapidly declining. The 38-year-old's production dropped to 30 points in 74 games, his offensive play-driving metrics took a nosedive and he still makes loud defensive mistakes from time to time. This list doesn't include goaltenders; otherwise, Tristan Jarry (three years remaining at a $5.375 million AAV) would have been on here as well. Barclay Goodrow: The Sharks have some inefficient investments, but none of them are going to handcuff them long term. Goodrow and Marc-Édouard Vlasic (he didn't officially make the list due to games missed) are wildly overpaid, but they will help the Sharks reach the salary cap floor, which they currently aren't close to hitting. Vlasic was placed on unconditional waivers for the purpose of a buyout on Thursday, while Goodrow has two years remaining. The Sharks intentionally handed Alex Wennberg an inflated $5 million AAV to keep the term down to just two years when they signed him last summer. That's a shrewd decision for a rebuilding team — he was a solid two-way middle-six center this season. Chandler Stephenson: If goaltenders were included in this exercise, Philipp Grubauer would have far and away ranked as Seattle's worst value contract this season. Among skaters, Stephenson stands out as a clear anchor. His 51 points in 78 games don't seem too bad on the surface, but he's an empty calorie point producer who drags the team down as a two-way liability. Stephenson's defensive metrics were some of the worst in the league, with Seattle only controlling an alarming 36.5 percent of high-danger chances during his five-on-five shifts. Advertisement Andre Burakovsky scored only 37 points at a $5.5 million cap hit — it's impressive that the Kraken shed his contract to Chicago without having to attach a draft pick or retain salary. Jamie Oleksiak had a down year on the club's second pair. He decisively lost his matchups, with Seattle giving up far more shots, scoring chances and goals than they created during his even-strength minutes. Matty Beniers is elite defensively, but we're still waiting for his big offensive breakout after a modest 43-point campaign. He's still only 22 and has shown a higher offensive ceiling in the past (scored 57 points as a rookie), so I'm confident he'll grow in this area and that his $7.14 million AAV will eventually become a long-term bargain with the skyrocketing salary cap. Vince Dunn is uber talented offensively, but his defensive issues have dragged down his overall value. Dunn surrendered five-on-five high-danger chances and goals against per 60 at the worst rate among all Kraken defensemen this past season. The end result is that he played closer to the level of a $6 million defender, according to Dom's model. Nick Leddy: He missed more than half the season due to injury. He's still a smooth skater and solid puck mover, but that skill set is a bit redundant now that Cam Fowler and Philip Broberg are in the fold on left defense. Leddy isn't suited to being a top-four option on a contending team anymore, but he's on the books for one more year at $4 million. Justin Faulk is also overpaid. His contract is longer and more expensive than Leddy's, but the difference is that the Blues don't have an in-house replacement for his top-four minutes on the right side. Yes, it'd be nice for the Blues to get better play from Faulk at his $6.5 million AAV or ship him out and find a right-side upgrade, but acquiring top-four right-handed defensemen is never easy. Brayden Schenn is still a good player (50 points in 82 games), but he isn't quite a bona fide second-line play-driving center anymore. He's a tad expensive at $6.5 million. The good news is that he seemed to fare better later in the season, when linemates Dylan Holloway and Jordan Kyrou were able to do the heavy lifting in terms of play-driving. Advertisement Mathieu Joseph, Alexandre Texier and Radek Faksa were slightly overpaid in the bottom-six relative to their contributions. Conor Sheary: The Lightning weren't stuck with any inefficient contracts besides Sheary. The 33-year-old was buried in the AHL for most of the year, appearing in just five games for Tampa Bay. He has one season left at a $2 million AAV. Morgan Rielly: The Leafs owned more overpriced contracts than you'd expect for a contending team, but all those deals were in the 'slight overpay' range rather than albatrosses. Rielly's contract is probably the most concerning long term — his offense has slipped to 41 points this season, and he's below average defensively. He's still a capable second-pair quality defenseman, but he's expected to be more than that with a $7.5 million cap hit for the next five seasons. Max Domi showed better flashes in the playoffs, but was an awkward fit in Toronto's lineup for most of the season. He's too flawed defensively to win his matchups as a top-nine center, and doesn't generate quite enough offensively (33 points in 74 games) to stick as a full-time top-six winger either. David Kämpf and Calle Järnkrok were expendable bottom-six pieces on bloated cap hits. John Tavares didn't quite live up to his $11 million cap hit at age 34 (which is entirely understandable), but the Leafs must be happy that they got 38 goals and 74 points from him in the final year of his contract. Matias Maccelli: He amassed 49 points in 64 games (a 63-point pace over 82 games) as a 22-year-old rookie in 2022-23 and followed that up with 57 points as a sophomore. Unfortunately, his production collapsed, and he completely fell out of favor this past season. Maccelli slumped to just 18 points in 55 games and was a regular healthy scratch, appearing in only three of Utah's games after the 4 Nations break. He's a very crafty, slick playmaker, but he's undersized at 5-11, can be a mixed bag defensively and isn't a strong forechecker. Advertisement Lawson Crouse, a linemate of Maccelli in 2023-24, went from scoring 24 goals in 2022-23 and 23 goals in 2023-24 to only 12 goals and six assists in 81 games this past season. Eighteen points simply isn't going to cut it when you're on a $4.3 million cap hit. Elias Pettersson: He inexplicably limped to just 45 points in 64 games despite owning the fifth-highest cap hit in the NHL this season. He was still very sharp defensively, but his inability to drive top-line caliber offensive results had him performing at the level of a $6.6 million center, which is a huge letdown compared to his $11.6 million AAV. Dakota Joshua was playing catch-up all year after undergoing a testicular cancer diagnosis that delayed his start to the season. He was a shadow of the heavy forechecking, net-front scoring forward he had been in 2023-24. It'd be unfair to judge his performance this past season; hopefully, he can be healthier and more productive this fall. Brock Boeser had a disappointing campaign after scoring a career-high 40 goals in 2023-24. He regressed to 25 goals, was a non-factor at five-on-five for large stretches, especially without J.T. Miller, his usual center, and his two-way results slipped compared to last year. Alex Pietrangelo: He didn't perform at the elite level we're accustomed to, primarily because of injuries. The 35-year-old's defensive numbers took a hit — he scored the fewest points per game of his Golden Knights career — and his two-way results during the playoffs were troubling. Pietrangelo had to withdraw from the 4 Nations Face-Off due to health concerns, and there's uncertainty surrounding his playing future for next season. Andrew Mangiapane: His speed, energy and forechecking were very useful in the Capitals' bottom six. However, the 14 goals and 28 points he amassed obviously weren't commensurate with his expensive $5.8 million cap hit. Outside of that, Washington's cap spending was very efficient in 2024-25. None: The Jets got excellent bang for their buck this year, with no player significantly underperforming his contract. That efficiency drove them to a Presidents' Trophy-winning season. (Top photo of Jamie Benn and Ben Chiarot: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
