Latest news with #politicalearthquake
Yahoo
05-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Eastern Kentucky Democrat rails against Medicaid cuts in launch for Congress bid
Ned Pillersdorf thinks a 'political earthquake' just struck Eastern Kentucky. That's what the newly minted Democratic candidate for the 5th Congressional District said on the Fourth of July in Prestonsburg just one day after Congress passed a budget bill that will extend more than $4.5 trillion worth of tax cuts and is projected to result in about $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid spending over the next 10 years. The 5th District is one of the poorest and most Medicaid-dependent districts in the country, and current Rep. Hal Rogers voted for the bill. But the 'earthquake' of a backlash would have to be truly devastating for Pillersdorf to get close in the 2026 election. Rogers has won almost all of his 23 general elections in landslide fashion. The last time a Democrat even got within single digits of him was 1992, when Pillersdorf himself came in second place for the Democratic nomination, and the Eastern Kentucky-centric district has grown more red since then. Pillersdorf's native Floyd County is a microcosm of the political headwinds he faces as a Democrat. Though proponents take heart in Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear's 14-point win there in 2023, Republican President Donald Trump won the county by 59 points last year, and Rogers' margin was 57 points in 2022. And in most of the other counties in the district, Republicans ran up the score even more. The early gambit of the Pillersdorf campaign is that the district will revolt over the Medicaid issue and voters will appreciate his work in the legal and nonprofit spheres. Pillersdorf's stump speech largely covered those two topics, laser-focused on Medicaid when it came to policy. He told a crowd of around 100 people in Prestonsburg, across the street from his law office, Friday evening that 'they're clawing back our benefits.' 'Frankly, it is disgraceful. We are the second-poorest congressional district in the nation, and our congressman cast the deciding vote to rip away benefits from our vulnerable neighbors,' Pillersdorf said. Estimates from nonpartisan groups indicate many Americans will eventually lose Medicaid coverage, ranging from 12 million to 17 million, due to the changes in the bill which include a new work requirement, changes in how Medicaid providers are taxed and funding changes for states like Kentucky that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. Dubbed by Trump the 'Big, Beautiful Bill,' the legislation is also expected to hit hospitals in lower-income areas like rural Appalachia, though some of that cost will be defrayed by a $50 billion rural health fund. The bill passed the House and the Senate each time by just one vote. In a statement, Rogers framed the cuts to Medicaid spending as 'protecting' the program for those who need it most in a press statement on his vote. 'With 4.8 million able-bodied adults receiving Medicaid, who choose not to work, the bill enforces a 20-hour weekly work requirement for those individuals who do not have small kids. Without question, we are adding integrity and strength to Medicaid and SNAP assistance for those who need it most in the years ahead.' Rogers wrote. The political calculation behind the cuts in Medicaid spending, Pillersdorf said, is that the recipients won't cause them pain at the polls. 'Why are the Republicans doing this? Here's my analysis: They know the people on Medicaid, food stamps, and they have made the political calculation that they don't vote,' Pillersdorf said. Pillersdorf, 70, is a known figure in Eastern Kentucky. Perhaps most notably, he led an effort to recruit lawyers to represent people who faced losing Social Security disability benefits as a result of the biggest disability scam in U.S. history, the long-running, massive fraud perpetrated by Eric C. Conn. He also litigated on behalf of coal miners who went on strike at the Blackjewel mine site in Harlan County; ran the political campaigns of his wife, former Kentucky Supreme Court justice Janet Stumbo; helped found an animal shelter and chairs the board of a school for disadvantaged children. Pillersdorf noted Rogers was 'incredibly helpful' during the Conn affair, but his vote on the bill gave Pillersdorf the final push to jump in the race. Rogers' age, while not a pillar of the campaign, was also mentioned. Pillersdorf questioned the 87-year-old's effectiveness in a Congress that could potentially flip to Democratic control after the 2026 midterm elections, when he'd start his term at 89. 'By all accounts, the Democrats are going to take back the (U.S.) House. Who will be representing the Fifth Congressional District? What if it's a 91-year-old man in the minority party? He won't be able to do nothing to help us,' Pillersdorf said. Pillersdorf told the Herald-Leader after the rally that he will not be content with a 'moral victory' of tightening the margin between a Democrat like himself and Rogers, despite the U.S. Dean of the House winning his last four contested general elections by an average of more than 61 percentage points. He pointed out that Beshear overperformed in the district — losing by about 16 points compared to Trump's 59-point 2020 margin — in his successful 2023 reelection. 'I know we're red, and the Democratic brand is toxic here, but I think the deck has been reshuffled in politics. I could not have won last year, but I think I can win next year because of this political earthquake, firestorm, whatever you want to call it,' Pillersdorf said. 'People in the past lost their election over the Affordable Care Act, some lost their election because of the Iraq War. I think this is 10 times bigger than both of them combined here,' he added.' He did not share how much he expected Beshear to help him in the race but said that the governor was the first person to pledge a contribution to his campaign. Mickey McCoy, a Martin County activist present for the rally, said Pillersdorf's brand will help. 'Ned is known as an honest lawyer, which is almost oxymoronic. And people know him. They call him 'Ned,' they don't call him counselor or sir,' McCoy said. McClain Dyer, a 22-year-old vice chair of the Carter County Democratic Party, argued a Pillersdorf victory is possible if the campaign can find a way to get its Medicaid message out ahead of conservative social issues like abortion or transgender women's participation in athletics. 'These big social issues that Republicans talk about, these 'woke' issues, those aren't things that are affecting everyday rural Kentuckians, but that's the only thing they hear about because Republicans are being louder than we are in this election cycle,' Dyer said. 'We have to be louder about the things that rural Kentuckians know that they need, like Medicaid.' Dyer suggested that the race could be within reach if Pillersdorf and his team find a way to flood social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram. Not everyone shares that assessment. Greg Stumbo a Prestonsburg native and former Democratic speaker of the house and attorney general said Pillersdorf is a legitimate candidate and deserves plaudits for his contributions to the community, agreeing also with his criticisms of the Trump-backed bill. He doesn't see much of a path to victory for him, though. 'I credit Ned for running, but I would be very surprised for the district to change. Getting the old Democrats back is a huge challenge. There's no sign to me that it will happen. They're pretty much Trump people.' Stumbo added that he didn't think concerns over Rogers' advanced age would matter much. He mentioned the advanced age of the district — at 41.6, its median age is the oldest in the state — and their familiarity with Rogers' brand. The Republican Party of Kentucky's take is more definitive. 'On behalf of the Republican Party of Kentucky, I want to congratulate Ned on his decision to join the long list of political lightweights the Kentucky Democratic Party has recruited to serve as a warm body and political martyr in the 5th District,' party spokesperson Andy Westberry said in a statement to the Herald-Leader.
The Guardian
25-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Zohran Mamdani: who is New York's Democratic mayoral candidate?
New York City has awoken to a 'political earthquake' as progressive residents celebrated the apparent victory of the 33-year-old politician over his political establishment rival Andrew Cuomo in a primary for mayor. We take a look at Zohran Mamdani's career so far and his rapid rise to political success
The Independent
30-05-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Pollster warns of ‘political earthquake in UK' after polls show Farage could be PM
Nigel Farage could become the prime minister with an outright majority, the latest polling calculations show as Reform UK surges ahead of Labour and the Conservatives. After Sir Keir Starmer attacked the Reform UK leader directly in a bid to stem the party's rise, parliament seat prediction site Electoral Calculus has calculated that Mr Farage would win 362 seats if a general election were held tomorrow. Labour would fall from winning 412 seats at the last general election to second place on 136, while the beleaguered Conservatives would be almost wiped out, winning just 22 seats. One pollster has suggested that the UK is on the verge of 'a political earthquake', but others have warned against reading too much into the current polls and questioned some of the assumptions behind the Electoral Calculus prediction. It comes as the latest Techne UK poll for The Independent, revealed that Reform has hit an all time high of 31 per cent (up 1 from last week), nine points above Labour on 22 per cent (unchanged) and almost double Kemi Badenoch 's Tories stuck in third equal on 16 per cent (down 1). Professor Sir John Curtice warned that there is no absolute figure a party needs to reach to win an overall majority, saying that 'the gap over other parties' and 'geographical spread' of votes are more important. With Reform votes concentrated in certain regions, he said: 'With a nine-point lead and an evenly spread vote, Reform would be well ahead in seats.' More in Common pollster, Luke Tryl, suggested that Reform has hit a critical point. He told The Independent: 'It depends if the electorate remains as fragmented as it is now, then 31% will be enough. But if Starmer can consolidate the left, it probably won't be enough - that's what happens in Canada [when Mark Carney defeated his rightwing opponents].' Polling expert Lord Hayward warned that council by-elections are a much better indicator than polls, but even then, this was going Reform's way. He noted that Reform had recently won by-elections in a traditional Tory heartland of Canvey Island in Essex and a Labour heartland in Caernarvonshire. He said: 'You can't have a more contrasted position than winning in those two areas. Currently, only the Lib Dems can hold their seats against Reform, that is what the by-elections are showing.' But Techne UK's chief executive Michela Morizzo said: 'There can be no doubt this is an earthquake in UK politics.' The Electoral Calculus prediction, based on the average of current polls, would give Reform an overall majority of 74 seats and pave the way for Mr Farage to be able to implement his radical tax-cutting agenda. 'On these figures, Nigel Farage would be prime minister with a working majority and no need for a coalition with other parties,' Electoral Calculus chief executive Martin Baxter said. The damning forecast also gave Labour just a 1 per cent chance of winning a majority at the next election without a dramatic turnaround in its fortunes. As part of Sir Keir's bid to halt Reform's rise, he has ramped up his direct attacks on Mr Farage this week, including using a speech on Thursday to warn he would be as damaging as prime minister as Liz Truss. Labour warned that a Farage government would add £5,500 to an average household's mortgage payments with tens of billions of pounds of unfunded spending commitments. And Sir Keir branded Mr Farage's policies a 'mad experiment', insisting he would 'be exactly the same' as Ms Truss. He said: 'Apparently [Mr Farage] is in Las Vegas today at a casino, and it's not a surprise, because he said that the Liz Truss budget in his view was the best since 1986. 'That shows his judgment. It shows what he'd do and the result would be exactly the same. I'm not prepared to let that happen.' Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves will use next month's spending review to unveil tens of billions of pounds of investment in seats in the north and Midlands Labour is hoping to avoid falling to Reform. The money will fund a slew of road, rail and green energy projects in the north and Midlands, according to reports. Responding to Sir Keir's attacks, Mr Farage accused the prime minister of being 'obsessed' with him, while dismissing his claims about Reform's policies as 'project fear 2.0' - a reference to the Leave camp's dismissal of warnings about the economic impacts of Brexit. And Reform chairman Zia Yusuf said:"It is clear that Reform has all the momentum in British politics, and with Labour and the Tories allowing things like immigration and the cost of living to spiral out of control it is no wonder that the British people are turning their backs on the tired two party system. "Our positive vision for Britain is cutting through and our consistent polling is proof that something is happening out there."
