03-07-2025
Worth bearing in mind hot-favourite ABs have lost past three to France
Both the All Blacks and the Otago public might want to consider the perils of complacency as they gear up for tomorrow night's test against France at Forsyth Barr Stadium.
There has, fairly, been plenty of noise around the French sending a weakened team to our shores for a three-test series.
And it is, for all the bluff being muttered about the depth of French rugby, a significantly weakened team.
There is no Antoine Dupont — the peerless halfback is injured on top of his usual reluctance to play in the southern hemisphere.
There is also no Romain Ntamack, no Damian Penaud, no Thomas Ramos, no Gregory Alldritt, no Louis Bielle-Biarrey, and no Thibaud Flament.
Remarkably, just two players — captain Gael Fickou and winger Gabin Villiere — remain in the squad from the French team that started the November test against the All Blacks.
Straightforward 50-point victory then, eh?
Hmm.
Not to get all Chicken Little about the situation, because facts are facts, but All Blacks fans might want to keep a few things in mind.
The first — and I am absolutely certain most supporters have either forgotten or blocked this out — is that France have won their past three tests against the All Blacks.
All three of those clashes were in Paris, granted. But a losing streak as much as three against any opposition makes grim reading for any New Zealand rugby team, and there should be some intense motivation to ensure the streak does not reach four.
Secondly, it is a sad reality that the All Blacks have underwhelmed under the Dunedin roof in recent times.
They were given a heck of a fright by an average English team last year — in Scott Robertson's first game as coach — before escaping with a 16-15 win.
They also laboured to a 23-20 win over a depleted Wallabies team in Dunedin in 2023, and of course they were beaten 23-12 by the Irish at the stadium in 2022.
"Underwhelming" was also, broadly speaking, the adjective most commonly used to describe Robertson's first year as coach.
The All Blacks lost four tests last year and seemed to struggle to establish their identity in the post-Ian Foster era.
More is expected this year, and it would be nice if the tone could be set in the Dunedin test, the first for the Dave Gallaher Trophy.
While Robertson — who, to be fair, has consistently said he has never known a bad French team, and that they are dangerous when under-estimated — has shown boldness with some of his selections, he has rewarded players for form.
Highlanders hero Fabian Holland completes the most fantastic fairytale, and Otago No 8 Christian Lio-Willie is rewarded for his consistency with the Crusaders.
There will be much interest in how Rieko Ioane performs back on the wing, whether this could be the start of Billy Proctor cementing his place in the No13 jersey, and what a radically rejigged loose forward trio can do.
This might — again, not to be seen as someone suggesting the sky will fall down — also be an important night for Otago rugby fans.
It seems highly possible this will be the last All Blacks test for a while. Christchurch's fancy new house opens next year, and there will be fewer home tests in both 2026 and 2027.
Make the most of it tonight, just in case.
