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Newsweek
15-07-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Iran Regime Change Is Underway, But Not in Trump's Favor—Former US Diplomat
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. A former U.S. diplomat involved in the last nuclear deal reached between Iran and major world powers has argued that the Islamic Republic was already undergoing a significant internal shift, although not in a manner likely to be beneficial to President Donald Trump's administration. Speaking during a virtual briefing held by the Middle East Institute on Tuesday, Alan Eyre, a veteran foreign service officer who served on the negotiating team that resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement in 2015, argued that "regime change" had already begun in Iran in the wake of the 12-day war fought with Israel. Yet he said that "regime change in the sense that people in the West think about it, which is an alternative form of government that's more pro-West," was "unlikely" to unfold. Rather than empowering Iran's reformist bloc, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, who renewed calls for diplomacy with the United States despite its unprecedented direct attack on Iranian nuclear facilities last month, Eyre stated that the recent conflict was "more likely making this regime more militaristic, more isolationist, emphasizing also the security aspect of it." Asked by Newsweek if there was a way he felt the Trump administration might be able to take advantage of the situation to advance the diplomatic solution still sought by the White House, Eyre remained doubtful. "The U.S., at its best, was not good at this sort of subtle manipulation of other polities that would derive some form of government that was pro-West or pro-U.S., and especially now with the current U.S. administration, we just don't have the expertise, or necessarily even the desire to engage in these sorts of intricacies," Eyre said. "Democracy these days is a very blunt tool that's rusting." "First of all, I think the reformists are of minor importance in Iran, and even if they were stronger, I don't think the U.S. has the ability to interface with it in a way to strengthen [them], at least in a way that's practical," he said. "I mean, the U.S. has tremendous ability to positively affect change in Iran and to strengthen reformists by lifting sanctions on Iran. But that's not going to happen." Newsweek reached out to the Iranian Mission to the United Nations and the U.S. State Department for comment. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attends a mourning ceremony commemorating the death anniversary of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson, Hussein, in Tehran on July 6, 2025. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attends a mourning ceremony commemorating the death anniversary of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson, Hussein, in Tehran on July 6, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/AP Changing Tides in Tehran The U.S. has a troubled history of interference in Iranian politics in pursuit of Washington's interests. The CIA-backed coup that helped reinstall the pro-Western shah in 1953 was followed by the 1979 Islamic Revolution that ultimately ousted the monarchy and put in place the current theocracy. Publicly, there has been little to suggest any new disruptions to Iran's ruling system taking place imminently. All major players, including military leaders from both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the conventional Iranian Army, as well as reformist politicians, continue to swear loyalty to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who assumed power in 1989 following the death of his predecessor, revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Calls for mass uprisings by both Israel and an array of Iranian dissident groups, mostly based abroad, have also thus far gone unrealized in the wake of the 12-day war. Newsweek recently spoke with several analysts who have insider sources in Iran who identified a gradual shift in domestic power mechanisms that predated the current conflict and may be accelerated by it. Among the most common views expressed by experts was that Khamenei's position appeared to be weakening. The 86-year-old cleric wields absolute authority in Iran, though the IRGC has steadily consolidated influence over key mechanisms of power, including the economy, throughout his 36-year rule. As speculation mounts over his successor, set to be decided by the 88-member Assembly of Experts, many feel the next supreme leader will likely take a backseat to other forces. However, debate persists as to whether the potential shift would result in a more pragmatic path or even a harder-line direction for Tehran. Eyre, for his part, viewed the IRGC as the most likely actor to capitalize on any scenario involving the succession of the supreme leader. "That position is strong over long periods of time," Eyre said. "When Khamenei was originally picked, he had no power whatsoever functionally, but his power came from installing his people in key positions, in accessing revenue streams, and over time, building up a network of people beneath him who relied on him and whom he could rely on." "Whomever replaces Khamenei will have to do that same thing," he added. "But in the short term, whoever it is will be very weak and will be bound to more or less follow what he perceives to be the Khamenei line, and that means, since power abhors a vacuum, that the institution of the play a dominant role." If Khamenei's successor fails to establish sufficient authority, Eyre said that "the next supreme leader could, in fact, become a ceremonial, vestigial, performative position, with the real power being held by the IRGC." A Tough Path to Talks After launching a massive campaign of direct strikes last month, Israel targeted both facilities and personnel, killing scores of top IRGC commanders in particular. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missile and drone strikes against Israel, also targeting a U.S. base in Qatar after Trump ordered the first-ever direct strikes on Iran. Both Iran and Israel declared victory following the June 24 ceasefire announced by Trump, putting an end to the most intensive battle between the two arch-foes to date. Meanwhile, Trump, who abandoned the JCPOA during his first term in 2018, has continued to express his desire to resume negotiations toward striking a new nuclear deal with Iran. However, uncertainties surround the possibility of rekindling diplomacy, as the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied Trump's claim last week that Tehran had sent him a request to return to the table. Since then, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated that Tehran would be willing to re-enter nuclear talks, but only on the condition that the White House provide a guarantee that it would pursue no additional military action against Iran. Pezeshkian's latest remarks on Tuesday appeared to emphasize Iran's openness to diplomacy, but neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed any return to negotiations. "I think Iran fears that when the U.S. says it wants to negotiate, it means that it wants to accept Iran's surrender, because one of the things that Israel has done is now normalize new red lines where [there would be] no domestic enrichment, no missile program, no support for proxies," Eyre said. "So, the sort of terms that allow Iran to go forward that are inside the strategic air are much more punitive on Iran than they used to be, and I think much more punitive than Iran is willing to accept," he added. "So, while the U.S. is the final destination for Iranian diplomacy, I don't think they're upbeat at all." Eyre argued that "the real question is: What is the U.S. vision for diplomacy with Iran? Is it essentially punitive and maximalist or is there going to be a good-faith effort, which there wasn't before the war, to see if they can find a modus vivendi that modifies not just Iran's capabilities but also its intentions, which is going to be hard."
New York Post
05-07-2025
- Business
- New York Post
How Trump became Washington's unlikeliest centrist
Love or hate him, there is no denying that President Trump is on a roll, at home and abroad. The president secured passage of his signature 'Big Beautiful' tax reform legislation that includes his 'no taxes' on tips and overtime. Most market watchers expect the economy to surge. 5 President Trump holds a gavel after signing the 'Big Beautiful Bill Act' at the White House in Washington, DC, on July 4, 2025. POOL/AFP via Getty Images His bunker-buster strike effectively de-nuked Iran's threats against the US, Israel, and throughout the Mideast. In the process, US deterrence — 'peace through strength' — was effectively restored after the disastrous Obama and Biden appeasement policies and the Afghanistan embarrassment. Russia and China were sidelined in the region. And the stage is set for a historic pro-peace, pro-West realignment in the Mid-East under an Abraham framework — the stuff of which Nobel Peace Prizes are made. Trump also brokered a peace agreement with Rwanda and Congo, reversing the shameful blind eye of the West that enabled a horrific holocaust in East Africa in 1994. He brokered a crucial peace deal with the India-Pakistan conflict that teetered into full-blown war between two nuclear states. The press hardly noticed, and campus protestors were tellingly indifferent. Trump successfully pressured NATO countries to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP — from the free-riding sub-2% mark. After being persuaded (shamed?) out of their decadent dependency on the US defense, the Europeans gushed applause for Trump like he was Dos Equis' most interesting man in the world. 5 University of Pennsylvania agreed to keep biological men out of women's sports, according to reports. Shutterstock The southern border is now closed as 80% of the American people want, with virtually no illegal crossings in May. As I predicted on these pages in February, Trump has again outsmarted the left-wing legal establishment as the Supreme Court gives him victory after victory — on deportations, pediatric gender transitions, story hours, and universal injunctions. The University of Pennsylvania bowed to the president on biological men in women's sports, and the administration's Title VI investigation into the anti-Jewish bigotry at Harvard will surely force the university to reform its increasingly intolerant and often bigoted monoculture. Trump also got major concessions from the Chinese on rare earth minerals, and from Canada and likely the EU on envy-taxes on US tech. 5 Mere months after tanking following Trump's tariff decrees, the stock market is at a new high, according to reports. AP New trade deals are on the horizon with Vietnam and elsewhere, the result of which will put American workers on a more competitive footing — a stated goal of Democrats just a generation ago. The Cassandra predictions of the economist-left on tariff inflation seem to be another boy who cried wolf moment — the stock market is at a record high, inflation has subsided, and unemployment hovers safely around 4%. You can agree or disagree with the accomplishments; Democrats will argue all these policies are 'authoritarian' — their shopworn epithet. And many may take aim at Medicaid cuts. But at 46% approval in the RealClear Polling average, Trump's public approval is as high as any 21st-century president at this point in their second term. And there is no denying the historic pace and scope of his accomplishments. But there is something deeper occurring. Democrats are moralizing themselves into oblivion. They have become captive of a pagan religion of sorts, a messianic delusion whose meta-narrative is that Democrats are liberators of 'oppressive' Western traditions. The problem is that few agree with this anti-Western dystopic worldview. Most think of the West, for all its faults, as having done more than any civilization ever to lift humanity out of poverty and usher in individual rights and liberties. So the messianism not only places Democrats in an intellectual space out of touch with voters, it drives a culture of reflexive obstructionism, extremism, and internal contradictions that are making the party weaker, smaller, and more regional. De-nuclearize Iran? 'Violation of War Powers Act!' Democrats claim, ignoring that Obama dropped 26,000 bombs in seven countries in his last year in office. Secure borders and deport violent illegal migrants at a pace slower than Obama's 3 million deportations? Our affiliated left-wing street activists will riot in the streets. During the desegregation battles of the 1960s and 1970s, the left insisted on the critical role of federal law enforcement. Now the nihilists on the left take the opposite position. Sanctuary cities and attacking/obstructing ICE agents are fundamentally secessionist. Beyond this nihilism, Democrats also have to grapple with profound internal contradictions as the party attempts to coddle the 'intersectional' omni-cause. 5 America's southern border is now closed, reports claim. AFP via Getty Images For example, with Iran as its benefactor, Hamas is the world's most oppressive, racist, genocidal movement today on the planet Earth. But Democratic mayoralty candidates like Zohran Mamdani in New York embrace organizations that drape themselves in the rhetoric and goals of the Nazi-like terror group — a group that today is executing Palestinians in Gaza who help feed starving civilians. Obstructionism. Cultural extremism to the point of self-contradiction. Voters used to know Democrats as a party that 'builds bridges' to our future economic challenges. But now voters know Democrats as a party that defends an ever-growing socialist welfare state headed for bankruptcy within the decade, extreme cultural leftism, Nazi terror groups abroad, failed educational institutions at home, and angry-mob street protests. 5 The Supreme Court on Thursday ruled the Trump administration can deport eight illegal migrants with violent criminal convictions to South Sudan, according to reports. AP In the wake of this, Trump slowly claims the centrist lane of American politics. Think of it — abortion (12-week ban), closed borders, balanced budgets, equal opportunity (not equal results) and anti-bigotry on campuses, peace through strength on the global stage, education reform. Trump is claiming the political center as the Democrats fulminate in a morality cartoon most Americans don't recognize.
Indian Express
04-07-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
It makes the world more dangerous
In the mid-1950s, Israel's first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, initiated the country's nuclear journey. Amidst stiff opposition from its principal supporter, the United States, and with discreet help from France, Tel Aviv built its nuclear programme by the end of the 1960s. Today, Israel is widely known as a non-declared nuclear weapons state. This exclusive status is often compared to Iran's nuclear programme of today, which was targeted by US President Donald Trump on June 22 as B-2 stealth bombers of the US Air Force dropped 14,000 kg bunker-buster bombs on three of the country's nuclear sites — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Iran's nuclear programme has been the centre of delicate political brinkmanship for years. It began under the rule of the former pro-West Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, and was pitched as civilian in nature, developed around former US President Dwight D Eisenhower's 'Atoms for Peace' initiative. Tehran ratified the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1970, committing to not attaining nuclear weapon capabilities. All its Arab neighbours are also signatories to the NPT. Internationally, only a handful of nations, including Israel, India, and Pakistan, remain outside the agreement's ambit. In 2003, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons. This, within Iranian polity, is seen as strong an indictment against nuclear weapons as possible coming straight from the ideological leadership. But today, Iran may be on the cusp of exiting the NPT. A broader nuclearisation of West Asia has been a subject of discussion for many years, and in more contemporary times, Iran has been at the centre of this. Tehran's nuclear brinkmanship could arguably be more related to protecting and sustaining the political system set up post the 1979 Islamic Revolution than the bomb itself. It used this strategy to pull in Western powers, negotiate, and mainstream the state back into the international system via the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. However, questions over its enrichment activities under the NPT have lingered for years, raising suspicion, fear, and anxiety about Iran's intent, especially in Israel. Over the years, Israel has publicly raised fears that Iran was rushing towards a nuclear weapon as it pushed back against the JCPOA. Under Trump, Israel eventually found success, as whispers about intelligence suggesting Iran had materials to build nine warheads reached Trump's ears. Trump ignored even his own intelligence apparatus, which had aired doubts. The Israel-Iran conflict is now central to the region's security debate. While speculation continues over the kind of damage the US air strikes have really caused, and how much of a setback has been dealt to potential weaponisation, the path forward could also accelerate nuclearisation instead of deterring it. The impact of nuclear weapons dictating the strategic calculus in West Asia will not be geographically limited — it will be global. Arguments around the validity of nuclear weapons and their relationship to the protection of sovereignty and power cannot be dismissed. Especially at a time when international norms put in place predominantly by the West after World War II face a potential collapse. The latter is giving rise to a strategic calculus of 'might is right' for the future. And there is no better deterrence than a nuclear weapon. Recently, North Korea has proved this. Whether Iran remains adamant on gaining nuclear deterrence is an open-ended question after the recent strikes. Israel will do its best to preserve its newfound status as the region's primary military power. Irrespective of who holds power in Tehran — moderates, conservatives or ultra-conservatives — the probability of a unanimous view that nuclear weaponisation is the only way to prevent a repeat of June 2025 may solidify. And if this happens, a domino effect could play out where nuclear shields — one Arab, one Iranian, and a publicly acknowledged Israeli one — cannot be discounted. Former prime minister of Pakistan Zulfikar Ali Bhutto perhaps best described a cornered state's vision of what nuclear capabilities can provide and how it can be marketed to a population. In 1977, according to various accounts, Bhutto said, 'A Jewish bomb, a Christian bomb, now a Hindu bomb. Why not an Islamic bomb?' Pakistan is the only nuclear Islamic country, and its know-how in this regard is widely accepted to be transferable to its Arab partners such as Saudi Arabia if need be. In the end, attaining nuclear weapons in today's day and age is not a technical challenge but a political decision that has long-lasting ramifications. West Asia should make such a decision cautiously and wisely. The writer is deputy director and fellow, Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation
NDTV
19-06-2025
- Politics
- NDTV
Meet The Lesser-Known Son Of Iran's Last Shah Calling For A Regime Change
The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has brought attention back to a man whose father once reigned supreme in Tehran. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Shah, was until recently a figure with little to no say in Iranian affairs. He now makes regular appearances on TV and is calling for a regime change in Iran. The time has come for the Iranian people to reclaim their country, he believes. He said, "The Islamic Republic has come to its end and is collapsing," adding, "The future is bright, and together we will turn the page of history." Mr Pahlavi's statement came amid reports of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, receiving direct threats from the US and Israel. Who Is Reza Pahlavi? Reza Pahlavi was born on October 31, 1960, in Tehran, as the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, and Farah Pahlavi, the Shahbanu. He studied at a private school located in the royal palace, restricted to only the imperial family and court associates. He was trained as a pilot and flew his first solo flight when he was 11. At the age of 17, he left Iran for military school in the US to continue his pilot training. In 1979, he began studying at Williams College but dropped out a year later. Then he briefly attended the American University in Cairo and later studied privately with Iranian scholars. In 1985, he completed his graduation in political science from the University of Southern California. After his father was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the monarchy was abolished, and the royal family was forced into exile due to their pro-West approach. Reza Pahlavi has since mostly lived in the US and has often called for a regime change in Iran. With no official position in Iran, Mr Pahlavi has established a symbolic presence among segments of the Iranian diaspora and those hoping for political reform. He has frequently urged for free and fair elections and that Iran should become a democratic and secular nation. Mr Pahlavi is married to Yasmine Etemad-Amini, and they have three daughters: Noor Pahlavi, Iman Pahlavi, and Farah Pahlavi. Mr Pahlavi has authored three books on Iran: Gozashteh va Ayandeh, 2000; Winds of Change: The Future of Democracy in Iran, 2002; and I RAN: L'Heure du Choix [IRAN: The Deciding Hour], 2009. At the Geneva Human Rights Meeting on February 20, he highlighted key strategies to rebuild Iran - mobilising a grassroots network within the country, uniting the Indian diaspora, and putting maximum pressure on G20 governments to support the Iranian people.
Edmonton Journal
04-06-2025
- General
- Edmonton Journal
Exclusive interview: The exiled Crown Prince of Iran
Article content Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah of Iran, is fast emerging as a potentially pivotal figure in Middle Eastern politics. As the only major Iranian opposition leader to openly advocate for a pro-West and pro-Israel position, Pahlavi's vision for a post-theocratic Iran is not just a matter of internal reform, but a potential sea change for regional stability and global security.
