Latest news with #projections
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Europe Playing for Time on Defense: Max Hastings
"I have serious doubts whether any of these terrific projections are going to be met," says Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Max Hastings, on the latest NATO spending goals. "It's very difficult for European politicians to get voters to sign up for defense spending," he adds. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg
5 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
London Population Set to Jump 600,000 Putting Strain on Housing
London's population is expected to jump by a further 600,000 by 2032, according to official projections that suggest a ratcheting up of pressure on the capital's constrained housing market. The city's population is expected to rise by 6.7% to over 9 million between 2022 and 2032, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.
New York Times
6 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Fade David Peterson, Seth Lugo and more THE BAT X insights
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. Advertisement THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This week's iteration suggests fading David Peterson and Seth Lugo, streaming Ramon Laureano and Chad Patrick, and potentially starting relief pitcher Abner Uribe. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer. For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. For example, outfielder Jo Adell, who is more available than many players on this list, has a YTD value of $6.40, but he's projected to have a value of $11.10 for the rest of the season. Adell has already racked up 16 homers (four fewer than he hit all of last season) with a .224 batting average and a .261 expected average. Additionally, he's in the 90th percentile in Barrel% and the 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage. He could be a sneaky add if he's available on your wire. On the pitching side, Max Scherzer has been on the 60-day injured list since his May 29 start but is rejoining the rotation this week. His ROS value is $8.10, which means he's projected to be a solid starter in the league format these projections are based on, but there could be some reason for caution. Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reported that while he said his 'stuff is fine,' he also stated, 'I'm trying everything I can to manage this [thumb] …. There's no knowing, just have to get out there.' Advertisement Reese Olson (15-day IL) and Ben Brown have been on this list numerous times and consistently remain in the top three. Olson is now 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA and should be rejoining the Tigers' rotation soon. He forces ground balls and whiffs, but he's getting hit hard and needs to lower his walk rate (9.5%). THE BAT X believes he'll improve, though. Like the waiver wire, fades and trades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. TJ Friedl was on this list last week, and since then, both his YTD and ROS values have dropped. He's hitting .290 (though his xBA is .254), but his xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel%, Hard-Hit% and bat speed are all at or under the 14th percentile in the league. He's not chasing, whiffing or striking out, and his walk rate is solid, but that may not be enough to sustain fantasy relevance. As a way to illustrate how to use this table in coordination with the 'Trade Targets: Hitters' list below, take a look at catcher and first baseman Yainer Diaz, who has a ROS value of $22.20 but a YTD value lower than Friedl's; Diaz's fantasy managers, therefore, might be open to a trade. According to THE BAT X, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Last week, we discussed Peterson and his declining value, which has continued to decline since then. It may not be too late to ship him for a pitcher with a higher ROS value, but you either have to act soon or hope for another good game from Peterson and act accordingly afterward. If you have any stock in Lugo or Jameson Taillon, their ROS values are projected to drop into the negative, making them essentially non-starters. Lugo only has one win in June and is now 4-5. His Statcast numbers are blue across the board, outside of his walk rate. Advanced metrics suggest he's not likely to improve and will likely continue to regress, as THE BAT X suggests. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above and see if there are deals to be made. It will be hard to obtain many players on this list, but Corey Seager and Mike Trout have negative YTD values, and their managers may be ready to deal, despite their $14.80 and $20.20 ROS values, respectively. Trout's Statcast numbers are all red, so if you can get him, all signs point to him improving. Advertisement And while Seager has been a huge disappointment to those who drafted him, his xwOBA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, Barrel% and Hard-Hit% range from the 76th percentile (BB%) to the 92nd percentile (average exit velocity). He's striking out too much, but even so, his fantasy value looks primed to improve for the rest of the season. Many of the pitchers on this list will be hard to acquire, like Tarik Skubal. But a couple of weeks ago, a commenter (Brian T.) asked, 'Would you trade Soto for Skubal? My other OFs are Tucker, Kwan, Heliot Ramos, Alvarez and Harris. My only SP of note is Crochet.' Derek Carty replied, 'Blockbuster deal alert! I think I take that deal, personally, especially if you feel like SP is more of a weakness for your team than SP is. The injury risk is always higher with an SP, but Skubal is far and away the best pitcher in fantasy right now and projects for quite a bit more value than Soto ROS, as good as Soto is.' At that time, Skubal had a YTD value of $34, and now he's at $36, while his ROS value has risen from $54.80 to $55.90, indicating improvement (from phenomenal) as predicted. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. If you have Aaron Judge on your roster, congratulations, he's set to have an incredible start to the week. Baltimore outfielder Ramon Laureano, who is only 2% rostered on Yahoo, could fill a spot if you're desperate for a streamer. He's on this list for games on Monday, Tuesday and Friday with projected fantasy values that far exceed his underlying value. He's hitting .252 on the season with nine home runs and two stolen bases. He strikes out a lot (28.5%), but he has a .483 SLG and an .804 OPS. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have outperformed their expectations in the past 30 days, as measured by wOBA and xwOBA. Laureano is also on this list, but for different reasons. While he has a .356 wOBA, his xwOBA is significantly lower at .278, which is why he's 2% rostered and should be considered a streamer rather than a long-term solution. Of the other players on this list, Jacob Wilson has the lowest xwOBA. He's still hitting .349 with an xBA above .300, but his Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, bat speed, Chase% and walk rate are all concerning; however, his K rate is an astounding 6.4%, his Squared-Up% is 41.3 (best of the best) and his Whiff% is 9.5. He is disciplined at the plate, which makes up for a lack of power. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Top prospect Jac Caglianone is batting only .203 in 64 at-bats, but his expected stats are significantly higher than his actual ones. While it's too early for his Statcast metrics to be verified, a glance will tell you that the power is there. Nearly the opposite of Wilson, Caglianone needs more discipline at the plate but has the power to elevate him in fantasy. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. I feel like a broken record when I say that the Dodgers and Yankees are likely to be seen on this list every week. We know these teams have big bats, but the Braves and Orioles are at three and four this week, which means the Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Ryan O'Hearn and Cedric Mullins could have big weeks. Catcher Adley Rutschman, however, is on the IL for the first time in his career, and interim manager Tony Mansolino said he's likely to be out through the All-Star break. Atlanta's Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna could have better weeks than usual. This week, we're rolling with the changes made in the last iteration to our one- and two-start pitcher sections. Instead of including the top one-start pitchers for the week, we are limiting it to those players who are rostered at 50% or less. Two-start pitchers are now ranked based on THE BAT X's projection system, excluding those who have a projected negative value. Advertisement The best projected pitcher this week under 50% rostered in a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters, according to THE BAT X, is José Soriano (5-5). Soriano has a 3.39 ERA on the season with a 3.94 xERA, but he's highly available and gets a good matchup against Washington this week, wherein THE BAT X projects his ERA at 3.24 in six innings pitched. His four-seamer is fast, with a fastball velocity in the 90th percentile, but he throws his sinker and knuckle curve the most, despite his sinker yielding a .298 batting average and only an 18.3 Whiff%. His knuckle curve and slider have the best PutAway% and Whiff% among his five pitches, while his split finger has yielded the fewest hits. At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Tarik Skubal — no surprise. But if we slide down the list a little, Patrick is only 36% rostered on Yahoo and faces Pittsburgh and Colorado this week. Patrick is 3-7 with a 3.50 ERA and is not a long-term option if you're looking for an ace, but if you have a spot to fill in your rotation, he could be a decent streamer this week, according to THE BAT X projections. This week, THE BAT X suggests benching Kris Bubic. The lefty gets two starts this week, which makes him intriguing for weekly (set it and forget it) lineups, but one of those comes against the hard-hitting Dodgers. He's 6-4 with a 2.12 ERA, 3.08 xERA (81st percentile), and a red Statcast page, so he could still perform well this week, but it's risky to start anyone against Los Angeles' bats. Based on matchups, the Brewers' and Angels' bullpens get the best matchups of the week. Uribe (2-1, one save) is only 22% rostered on Yahoo with a 1.98 ERA in 36.1 IP. He's been a strikeout machine — 45 SO, 30.4 K% — and has avoided being hit hard, forcing groundballs 51.2% of the time. He could be a good option this week against the Pirates and Rockies. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of David Peterson: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)
New York Times
20-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Five bats fantasy baseball managers can actually drop, based on projections
If you stick closely to projections (as I do) and play a lot of keeper leagues (as I do), you take the long view on hitters most of the time. They'll come back around and play to the talent levels they've shown before, of course, why wouldn't they? Projections look at the sum of a player and put together the good times and the bad times and produce the most likely outcomes, and usually, those are about as rosterable as they were when you acquired the player. Advertisement But sometimes even the projections move enough on a player that we should recalibrate our feelings. If you've lost the projection systems, you've lost your last defender. To see which players have seen their projections move the most, I took preseason OOPSY projections from Jordan Rosenblum and compared them to his rest-of-season projections. Here are the 15 players who have seen their projections move downward the most compared to preseason expectations. I've listed them along with their Yahoo roster rates. There are already some obvious flaws with this approach. There are the hitters who might have taken a haircut but are still projected among the best hitters in the game, like Juan Soto, Mike Trout, and Gunnar Henderson. Nobody is advocating dropping these players. League average OPS is .712, and they're all 100-plus points clear of that, even with their reduced projections. There are also hitters here who will provide fantasy value with their legs, as Matt McLain, Michael Harris II, and, to a lesser extent, Kristian Campbell and Spencer Steer are non-zeroes on the basepaths. And then there are players who nobody had rostered anyway, like Joey Ortiz. Ahem. So let's try this another way. Which hitters have seen their OPS projections drop at least 10 points, but are sorted by the worst OPS projections (minimum 250 projected plate appearances)? Surely these players are not great, and maybe also on the precipice of losing their jobs? Nobody on this list was projected to have a league average OPS, and then they played so poorly that they saw their projections drop further. Speed once again is a complicating factor, but it's still instructive to note that while Parker Meadows has the defensive chops to keep his job despite poor OPS projections, the Miami Marlins just moved Xavier Edwards to second base. He's a sell in keeper formats if he has any value, because legs can only take a player so far. The next problem is that once you scan over to the roster levels, you'll see that nobody was really all-in on these players anyway, with a notable exception or two. Advertisement We still have the stolen base problem. Let's try one last way. Here are the players who have lost the most projected fantasy value since the preseason, using OOPSY in the FanGraphs auction calculator with 15-team Roto 5×5 settings. I've removed players who are currently in the minors or suffering from long-term injury, or who were projected for negative value to begin the season, in order to make this list more useful. This once again has some less-than-useful information. Nobody is still holding on to Orlando Arcia at this point since he lost his starting job and is a utility player, and ownership levels in a lot of the other categories are pretty low. Nobody is dropping Yordan Alvarez despite the change in projected outcomes. But there are also some interesting names on here for those who were holding out hope for players like Brandon Marsh and Lane Thomas — if they are basically underwater in 15-teamers with five outfielders, by sober projections, then there's no reason to keep holding them for the future in most leagues. Let's highlight five bats who have shown up on a lot of these lists but aren't slam-dunk drops at first glance. Recently, Adames has performed a little better, and that coincides with his rolling swing speed finally poking about the 75th percentile for the first time this season. But it's a long swing, and if you judge him instead by swing acceleration (which considers contact point), he just nudged above the 10th percentile. The thing is, we've seen this from Adames before, so it's not too surprising. Many of his numbers seem right in line with what he did in 2023, when he had a .217 average and hit 24 homers (except worse in the power department, really). That year, he was the 20th-best shortstop when all was said and done. Even if he picks it up and ends up near those numbers, the stolen bases aren't going to be there like last year, and maybe there's someone out there who can be better than 20th for you at the position? He's still a $3 player in 12-team leagues with a middle infield slot, according to OOPSY rest-of-season projections, but that's droppable territory if you see something better out there. Of the players highlighted here, McLain is the toughest drop for a couple of reasons, though. First, second base is a really tough position this year. It's only produced six players who would be above-replacement players without the positional adjustment (shortstop has 16), and the lesser-rostered, better-projected second basemen ahead of McLain (Jonathan India, Luis Garcia Jr.) aren't slam-dunk decisions. Second, he's stealing bases and likely to finish the season with at least a shot at a 20-20 season. But the batting average isn't going to be great, and the power, which wasn't supported fully by his batted-ball stats, has not returned (and wasn't helped by a loss of bat speed). If the steals won't mean that much to you, McLain could be a drop in shallower leagues. Advertisement Everything has gone badly for Santander in Toronto. The strikeout rate went up (career-worst), the fly-ball rate went down, the hard-hit rate went down (five-year low), as did his barrel rate (career-worst) and max exit velocity (career-worst). His bat has lost over a mile per hour of bat speed (to the point that it's almost average from the left side), and his swing has gotten flatter in terms of tilt, so he's just pulling balls on the ground now. Jorge Soler, who is rostered in a third of the leagues as Santander, is projected to be better. In the deepest leagues, you just have to hold and hope, but projections have him under $3 going forward in 15-team leagues with players like Alec Burleson and the returning Luke Raley ranked higher. You probably have a better option on your wire versus waiting for him to get healthy. Steer's lack of bat speed this year can indeed be most likely attributed to his spring injury to the shoulder, but it's also true that there's no evidence in his rolling swing speed graphs that the joint is feeling any better in recent days. Keeper league players have a harder decision — Steer could use a full healthy offseason, most likely, and any return of bat speed could make him a viable 20-10 guy again — but in leagues playing just for 2025, the four stolen bases aren't enough to hang around for. Christian Encarnacion-Strand projects better and is out there in nearly three-quarters of Yahoo leagues, and if you need some stolen bases, Jake Cronenworth is rostered in fewer leagues and projects better. There are better options than Steer right now in all but the deepest leagues. In 12-team leagues with a middle infielder slot, OOPSY projects Story to be below replacement, which might be surprising at first. He has double-digit homers and steals and has had his moments this year. But the real tragedy of leaving Coors Field behind is that his batting average is no longer buoyed by altitude. Now he strikes out 30 percent of the time and has the batting average to match. It's a bit like McLain — how much batting average do you want to pay for your 20/20 season — but at a position where there are more options. Even if you want power and speed, Masyn Winn and Ezequiel Tovar might be able to help you without hurting in batting average as much. Looking at roster rates, though, Story has probably already been dropped in most leagues where he should have been, and is a tentative hold in the deepest leagues. (Photo of Willy Adames: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
New York Times
19-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy football 2025 cheat sheet generator: Customizable rankings and projections tool
Welcome! It's good to see you again (or nice to meet you, new readers). You have found the ultimate tool for your 2025 fantasy football quest, a fully customizable cheat sheet generator that allows you to input your league rules and settings — and even change stats and projections — to create a set of rankings and projections unique to your fantasy football needs. Advertisement I only humbly ask that you read the instructions. This is a very deep (and fun) tool, and once you learn it, it's strikingly easy to use. (You can project Jaxson Dart to start 17 games and throw for 4,500 yards … if you are a bit cuckoo, and not for Cocoa Puffs). If you're new to the cheat sheet, download it using the link and read on for detailed guidance and definitions. If you're familiar with the sheet, dive on in. If you don't want to get your hands dirty, in the default view, you'll find player projections grouped by both position and team, rankings based on a players' value over a replacement level fantasy starter at their position, as well as my rankings ahead of training camp, which will be updated until the start of the 2025 season. When you first open the file, you'll see a more detailed set of instructions for customization. Behind that, you'll find a series of projections and rankings you can navigate via the tabs at the bottom left of the sheet. If you don't touch any of the league settings, you will get rankings and projections based on the following: Also, the scoring categories you see are the only ones I project. If you have odd bonuses or extra categories like first downs, there isn't a way to account for those. At the bottom left of the sheet, you will see tabs with the following labels: Instructions: Guess what you'll find here? Settings: Customizable league setting values POS Ranks: Players at QB, RB, WR, TE and D/ST ranked by their projected fantasy points. (No kickers. Never kickers.) These will autosort with any changes to player projections. (More on that below.) OVR & VORP: Rankings based on a player's value over a replacement-level player — defined as a starter with some bench players due to Flex variance at RB and WR — at their position. These are sorted individually by position (orange), overall (blue), and by WR/TEs for leagues that lump those positions together (yellow). Advertisement Ranks w PROJ: Rankings for QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs accompanied by their projected statistics. These will also automatically update with changes to player projections. Jake Ranks: Rankings based on my preseason assessments, so you will see players with lower projected point totals ranked above players with higher projections. That is a feature of how I'm valuing the draft pool, not a bug. For example, I might be willing to gamble on an injured player missing the first few weeks over a player who is less productive on a per-game basis. The auction values and projected points re-adjust when you manually adjust player projections, but the rankings do not because, well, those are my rankings, and you can't tell me what to do. I pour milk into my bowl before the cereal, and you can't change that either. But you can ask questions in the comments related to your changes. After that, you'll see tabs for every NFL team, followed by DST for team defenses. The yellow fields in the DST sheet allow users to manually enter stats you might use that I don't project. As you may have guessed, you'll find league scoring and other settings on the second tab, aptly labeled 'Settings.' Simply fine-tune those numbers to match your league's and generate custom-tailored projections and rankings. If that's all you're looking for, you can stop here. But if you want to adjust individual player projections, read on because the fun is just getting started. If you disagree with how a particular player is projected to perform — think their target share is too high or their TD rate too low? — you can adjust the projections on an even more granular level. Note: You can only adjust numbers in fields shaded yellow. If you change any of the cells in white, you will break the sheet. Advertisement To make changes to player stats or projections, navigate to the individual team pages. In other words, if you want to change Ashton Jeanty's projections, you have to go to the Las Vegas Raiders tab and tweak them there. You cannot input a new fantasy points total on the Rankings tab. You'll break the sheet. Don't break the sheet. On the team pages, scroll right until you see the last of the columns that start with the word 'Edit,' so you can see everything. (Those begin in column AE and go all the way to column AH.) You can adjust any of the yellow cells on a team page to tweak a player's overall projected output based on their workload and productivity. Simply click on a yellow cell and adjust to your wishes. There are some caveats that I'll address later, but that's essentially how the customization works. You cannot change Jeanty's rushing yards or rushing attempts directly in the cells — if you click on that cell, you'll see a formula instead of a raw number because everything is connected to make the sorting and ranking work. If you want to change Jeanty's rushing yards, you'll have to tweak a few things in the formula that creates 'rushing yards' by adjusting some of the yellow cells (which is all intuitive and should make sense): Changes in the following fields will auto-calculate and update the sheet. However, unless you're convinced something needs a major change, you can skip adjusting these fields, as it causes a domino effect on team numbers (D-J, Rows 28-39), and you'll be required to change numbers for other players to compensate for the original change. The next set of editable fields is fun, and you're encouraged to play with them. Do you think Shedeur Sanders starts 15 games? Will Kyren Williams get benched and only see 25% of the rushes this year? You can change any of these fields and see how it affects other players, team numbers, ranks and more. When you adjust the default projections, you will see changes to that player's projected statistics on the team page, as well as to their projected fantasy points and rankings on the POS Ranks, OVR & VORP and Ranks w Proj tabs. Check out the red 'TOT SHR' box in column AF (bottom right of the image above). You want that number to be under 100% and not red. You can leave it red, and Column W will still adjust, but the balance won't provide an accurate representation. As a result, the projection, ranking and assigned dollar value for that player may be adjusted incorrectly relative to other players. Advertisement Basically, you can't have more than 100% of a team's rushes (or receptions, or whatever stat you're messing with). You may want your player to give you 110%, but alas, he cannot, because math. That's all this is doing. Columns AA and AC will calculate to 98% because there will always be situations when players not listed on this sheet account for random touches (e.g., a team elevates a player from the practice squad or special teams to fill in for an injured RB one week). Rows 28, 32 and 35 are team numbers (as noted). Tweaking those will move the positional projections accordingly by elevating or lowering the team's playcalling and overall projected production. If you think Arizona Cardinals will pass 65% of the time and increase that cell, the RUSH% will automatically adjust down to 35% (again, because we have to keep it 100). So the team's running backs, wide receivers and quarterbacks will move down accordingly. Any red cells likely indicate that something is amiss and are likely due to user tweaks made to individual player statistics. That's pretty much it. As noted at the outset, if you have any questions or concerns, drop them below in the comments. You can also use Ctrl+F to see if your question has already been answered, but I'm here to help! And one more time: (Top photo of Ja'Marr Chase: Katie Stratman / Imagn Images)
