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Weather bomb threatening Australia's east coast next week to bring damaging rain, winds and surf
Weather bomb threatening Australia's east coast next week to bring damaging rain, winds and surf

ABC News

time16 hours ago

  • Climate
  • ABC News

Weather bomb threatening Australia's east coast next week to bring damaging rain, winds and surf

Forget the headlines and hyperbole of the fictitious "rain bomb", the real weather bomb — a rapidly intensifying low-pressure system — is possible along Australia's east coast next week. The winter storm may even become the first East Coast Low (ECL) in three years, and has the potential to generate a combination of heavy rain, gale force winds and damaging surf. And while New South Wales is currently the likely focus of severe weather, impacts from the system will be felt down the coast to eastern Victoria and as far north as tropical Queensland. When a low-pressure system transforms from non-existence to a formidable storm just a day later, meteorologists label it a "bomb cyclone", or a system which has experienced "bombogenesis". The expression "bomb" is due to the explosive speed of development, however its usage is restricted only to systems where the reduction in pressure exceeds a specific rate based on latitude. For the Tasman Sea, the drop in central pressure required in a 24-hour period ranges from 18hectopascals (hPa) near Tasmania to 14hPa near the Queensland-NSW border. Next week's low is predicted by modelling to deepen between 22hPa and 24hPa in a day — easily passing the weather bomb criteria. Considering the above definition is based solely on pressure, the nonsensical term "rain bomb" becomes an irrational fallacy, lacking any scientific validity. The first signs of the upcoming storm will arrive this weekend at opposite ends of the country. Patchy rain will form over north Queensland from a band of tropical moisture, while in the south, light showers will spread through Tasmania, Victoria and South Australia under a tongue of polar air. The two contrasting systems will then collide on Monday near the east coast, leading to the initial drop in pressure and increasing showers from central Queensland to Sydney. As the low becomes fully developed on Tuesday along this volatile air mass boundary, the weather will rapidly deteriorate near its centre. Another influence which could enhance the system is the current warmer than normal water temperatures in both the Coral and Tasman seas — not only a source for moisture and rain, but also a factor which will amplify the warm/cold contrast. While it looks inevitable this low will become formidable, the impacts felt along the NSW coast are highly dependent on its exact position. An intense low tracking near the coast is likely to produce a combination of heavy rain, damaging winds and powerful surf, with the worst weather near and to the south of the centre where winds are onshore (remembering winds spin clockwise around a low). Under this coastal scenario, hundreds of millimetres would trigger both flash and river flooding, although it's too early to pinpoint which catchments are at the greatest risk. Below is a five-day rain forecast map showing how much could fall if the low tracks down the NSW north coast, which shows a bullseye of around 200 millimetres, or around double the July average rainfall in 48 hours. Gales also pose a significant threat, with gusts near 100 kilometres per hour downing trees and leading to power outages along the coast and ranges. A low 200km to 400km offshore would lead to less widespread severe weather, while a position around 500km off the coast may only bring strong winds and showers but with minimal if any adverse impacts from wind or rain. What's more certain, irrespective of the low's position, is huge waves will pound the coast. Current modelling shows average heights reaching around 5 to 6 metres, including Sydney, which equates to maximum waves around 10 metres and a threat of significant coastal erosion. The upcoming Tasman Low, along with being a "bomb cyclone", has the potential to become the first ECL since 2022. The criteria used to distinguish ELCs from other Tasman lows is: With the exception of rare southern tracking Tropical Cyclones, ECLs are the most significant weather systems to impact south-east Queensland and eastern parts of NSW, Victoria and Tasmania. Surprisingly though, despite numerous flood events along the east coast during the past 18 months, none have been associated with a true ECL. Deep Tasman lows in close proximity to the coastline are notoriously difficult to forecast with precision, even only a day or two ahead. The systems stand out for their rapid development, intensity and modelling inaccuracy, especially compared to other less dynamic mid latitude weather features like high pressure systems and cold fronts. In addition, the exact location and intensity of an ECL is more critical than a typical high or low since dangerous weather is normally confined to relatively small area south of the centre. The consequence of this concentration of hazards is a minor forecast error that could be the difference between a region having no severe weather or hundreds of millimetres of rain and gale force winds. This sharp gradient of intensity was apparent during the August 1986 ECL — Sydney was hammered by an all-time record 328mm of rain in 24 hours, while just 50km north, parts of Gosford received less than 50mm.

Much cooler weather has blown into Maryland, ahead of summery weekend weather
Much cooler weather has blown into Maryland, ahead of summery weekend weather

CBS News

time21 hours ago

  • Climate
  • CBS News

Much cooler weather has blown into Maryland, ahead of summery weekend weather

The First Alert Forecast features temperatures running nearly 20° cooler than yesterday, along with clouds and drizzle. It feels more like an early fall afternoon, not late June. A few showers, storms are possible across Maryland A 'cold' front has drifted south of the Baltimore metro. Behind the front, temperatures range from the mid-60s in Cecil County, to upper 60s in Baltimore and 70s further southeast at late Friday morning. Low clouds and patchy drizzle have developed as the cooler air settled in. The forecast features a Friday afternoon that is about 20° cooler than Thursday afternoon. Temperatures peak in the 70s in most communities Friday afternoon, under lots of clouds. While drier than yesterday, a few showers and storms are possible trough the afternoon. Rain is possible across the entire state. However, the risk of heavier rain and thunderstorms remains greatest both across southern Pennsylvania and along the Potomac River over to the lower eastern shore. Weather won't totally wash out your Friday plans. But, remain aware that rain will be in the area. Summer weather returns to Baltimore this weekend The same front that brought Thursday storms and a cooler Friday lifts back north this weekend. As it passes through Maryland, warmer weather will return from south, to north. Plan on a hotter Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures peak in the upper 80s and lower 90s both afternoons; warmest away from the bay. It'll feel a few degrees hotter, thanks to mugginess. Scattered showers and storms are possible both days. The chance of rain is greater Saturday. Plan on typical summer-time rain coverage and timing; scattered and primarily in the heat of the day. Stormier weather is possible early in the workweek Another front approaches the DMV Monday. Scattered, to numerous, showers and storms are forecast to develop both Monday and Tuesday. The chance of rain peaks between 2 and 9 p.m. both days. A couple severe storms are possible, along with heavy rain. The front shifts south late Tuesday. Sunnier, warm weather returns to Maryland heading into the middle of next week.

Heavy rain expected to hit Montreal this weekend
Heavy rain expected to hit Montreal this weekend

CTV News

timea day ago

  • Climate
  • CTV News

Heavy rain expected to hit Montreal this weekend

Rain and thunderstorms are on their way to the Greater Montreal area and beyond this weekend, with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) predicting total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm. 'Water may accumulate locally,' ECCC notes in its special weather statement. 'Some rivers may see an increased flow and higher water levels.' The wet weather is expected to start Friday afternoon and last until Saturday morning in southern and central Quebec. In western Quebec, it could continue until Saturday night. 'Additional rainfall amounts produced by thunderstorms may lead to total amounts exceeding 50 mm locally,' the agency adds. Areas that should be on alert, according to ECCC, include Outaouais, Témiscamingue, Montreal, the Montérégie, the Eastern Townships, Bois-Francs, Lanaudière and the Laurentians.

After five straight days of 90-degree weather, Pittsburgh begins to see a slight cool down
After five straight days of 90-degree weather, Pittsburgh begins to see a slight cool down

CBS News

timea day ago

  • Climate
  • CBS News

After five straight days of 90-degree weather, Pittsburgh begins to see a slight cool down

Today should look similar to what it looked like yesterday, with a lot of dry time but storm chances returning for the afternoon. WEATHER LINKS: Current Conditions | School Closings & Delays | Submit Your Weather Photos I expect storms to develop off of what are known as "outflow boundaries" once again today. These boundaries are ripples in the atmosphere that lift conditionally stable air just enough to kick off storms. Storms develop due to hot and humid air being "buoyant" and lifting. Sometimes this buoyant air is trapped at the surface by a layer of stable air. These outflow boundaries give this air the 'lift' it needs to break through the stable layer, and that's when storms develop. Back to the outflows, they give the storm every lift or punch to get through the stable layer of air and turn into storms. When that happens, storms develop, and if conditions are there, severe storms and downpours can happen. Excessive rain risk for western Pennsylvania KDKA Weather Center Rain chances both this morning and early in the afternoon should keep highs in the 80s today and not the 90s. Morning temperatures remain in the low 70s, and today will be the sixth day in a row with temperatures remaining above 70° in Pittsburgh. I have noon temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds should be light today, coming in out of the south. Looking ahead, we should see some rain on Saturday too. Rain totals expected through early Saturday morning KDKA Weather Center Right now, model data is showing less rain & storms tomorrow than today, but this has been what model data has done over the past couple of days. Data has consistently underplayed instability coming into each day until the last moment, and then on later runs shows correctly the instability driving storms. Saturday is included under a level one out of four risk of flash flooding. That may get bumped up, depending on what is expected along with what falls today. We finally see temperatures dip below 70 degrees in Pittsburgh late Saturday or Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday should hit the upper 80s. Another round of rain and storms will be around on Monday with highs in the mid-80s. While rain chances appear low Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, with highs each day in the mid-80s. 7-day forecast: June 27, 2025 KDKA Weather Center Stay up to date with the KDKA Mobile App – which you can download here!

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