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Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Susan Collins' Re-Election Prospects Dim
Senator Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine, speaks to members of the media outside a Senate Republican luncheon at the Capitol in Washington, on June 28, 2025. Credit - Aaron Schwartz—Bloomberg /Getty Images This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME's politics newsletter. Sign up here to get stories like this sent to your inbox. When someone crosses Donald Trump, the retribution tends to come fast and fierce. But when Sen. Susan Collins of Maine voted last week against his One Big Beautiful Bill, a tax- and safety net-cuts behemoth, the President was atypically silent. That may be the biggest indicator of just how much danger Collins is in as she faces re-election in Maine in 2026. Collins' opposition was not enough to kill the giant domestic bill that may be the lone legislative lift of the 119th Congress. She was the 50th nay, which forced Vice President J.D. Vance's to provide a tie breaking 51st vote. Collins is seldom the deciding factor; she did not sink Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court and voted for all but one of Trump's second-term Cabinet picks, while also voting against Kash Patel's nomination to lead the FBI. Her protest votes are as strategic as they are symbolic; FiveThirtyEight found she voted with Trump 67% of the time during his first term. Plus, on an early test vote on this bill, she let it proceed as she continued, unsuccessfully, to negotiate for carve-outs for rural hospitals. Collins is the lone Senator up for re-election next year in a state that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried in 2024. Democrats have yet to settle on a favored candidate to become the nominee although all eyes are on Maine Gov. Janet Mills, the tough-minded former prosecutor who stared down Trump at the White House and refused to comply with his administration's anti-transgender athlete orders. State Democrats have other options at the ready if the 77-year-old Mills passes and are primed either way to make Collins own the Trump record, especially her votes for his Supreme Court nominees in his first term. While she was re-elected after those votes, the Justices have since overturned a half-century of precedent on abortion rights in Roe. Republicans in Washington, meanwhile, have seemingly endless patience with Collins and understand her savvy. Her tangles with Trump have been largely performative, not predictive. She is no John McCain, who with a single thumbs-down signal thwarted Trump's first-term effort to repeal Obamacare. Cynics say that Collins shows independence only when it doesn't really make a difference; no one on her side of the aisle really unloaded on her after the vote against the latest package. Most had her back, saying they understood her choice. Collins, a powerful player and chair of the all-important Appropriations panel, is not terribly difficult to understand, politically speaking. She has never won re-election by less than 8 points despite her home state's fickle politics. The last time the state's majority vote went for a Republican presidential candidate was in 1988, also the last year a Democrat won a Senate race in the state. But her net approval rating sank 12 percentage points—more than any other Senator's numbers—between the first and second quarters of this year, according to Morning Consult. Her disapproval number stood at 51%, up from a 44% average in the January-March window. And she is definitely viewed less warmly than when she was at a comparable point ahead of her 2020 bid. In 2019, 52% of Mainers had a favorable impression of Collins, according to Morning Consult polling. Today, the number is 42%. This suggests she's going to have a trickier time than when she was at the comparable point ahead of her last campaign. In 2019, ahead of her 2020 bid, her net positive numbers were 13 points. Today she's at a net negative of 9 points, according to the same pollsters. That means roughly 1-in-5 Maine voters have changed their minds about Collins in a state where her last victory was secured by less than 9 points. Collins' allies, meanwhile, offer a different read, noting that she enjoyed a net positive of 2 points in September of last year, and that has moved to a net positive of 4 points last month, according to an independent survey from Pan Atlantic Research. As a practical matter, about 34,000 Mainers stand to lose health coverage as the bill was drafted. Two solar projects in the state were put on hold even before the bill passed. Hospitals were already bracing for shifting services. Collins' no vote, in a rational world, made sense for her constituents. But that may not help her. Among voters in Maine, a majority—including a majority of Republicans—says she does not deserve to be re-elected, according to polling from neighboring University of New Hampshire. A striking 71% of all Maine voters say this should be her last term, and 57% of Republicans agree, according to a survey taken in April. That's a simply brutal number. Flipping ahead a few pages in the same UNH binder, things get even worse. Their survey finds Collins with a favorability number of just 12%, landing a 58% unfavorable number. Among Republicans, the gap is a 19% positive to a 43% negative. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center found the bill was deeply unpopular, according to a June poll. A 58% majority did not want to see the bill pass, including 72% of independent voters. Still, Democrats are realistic about what they face. While Collins has just $3 million in her account, she raised almost $31 million for her 2020 bid and won her 2014 campaign with less than $6 million in spending to notch 67% of the vote. Senate Republicans' campaign committee is, first and foremost, an incumbent-retention operation and will have her back. Senate Democrats, meanwhile, are going to be defending tricky seats in Georgia, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, and Colorado. They would need a net pick-up run of four seats to take a majority, and the path to that would require upsets in Trump-backing states like Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, and Texas, plus holding every seat that is currently blue. So Collins is facing some pretty lousy poll numbers and is going to be dogged by her no vote that had no real upside. The vote against Trump is not going to be the salve that cures her dour numbers. She defied Republicans but is not going to get any love from Democrats. She's going to be hounded by a bill she did not support. Plus, the headwinds are historic—and that's before Trump decides whether he will launch his own revenge. Make sense of what matters in Washington. Sign up for the D.C. Brief newsletter. Write to Philip Elliott at
The Guardian
04-07-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Trump news at a glance: Republicans pass bill that will cut federal safety net and boost immigration enforcement
The US House of Representatives passed Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill on Thursday, handing the president the first major legislative victory of his second term, with the bill expected to supercharge immigration enforcement and slash federal safety net programs. For decades, Republicans have argued that the US would be better off if taxes were low, and programs to help low-income Americans were harder to access. Thursday's bill will in effect make this a reality, fundamentally reordering two major social safety net programs, slashing funding and imposing new work requirements. Nonpartisan estimates say it will cost millions of people their benefits and the ripple effects, experts say, will be felt across the country, and not just by the poor. Meanwhile big tax cuts that were set to expire this year will be made permanent, with these provisions expected to generally benefit high earners more than most. Here's the latest: The 218-214 vote came after weeks of wrangling over the measure that Trump demanded be ready for his signature by Friday, the Independence Day holiday. Written by his Republican allies in Congress and unanimously rejected by Democrats, the bill traveled an uncertain road to passage that saw multiple all-night votes in the House and Senate and negotiations that lasted until the final hours before passage. Ultimately, Republicans who had objected to its cost and contents folded, and the bill passed with just two GOP defections: Thomas Massie, a rightwing Kentucky lawmaker, and Brian Fitzpatrick, who represents a Pennsylvania district that voted for Kamala Harris in last year's election. Read the full story Despite the many cuts to the social safety net, the bill is still hugely expensive. The CBO forecasts it will add $3.3tn to the deficit through 2034, mostly due to the tax cuts. For fiscal hawks concerned about the sustainability of the country's budget deficit, which has yawned higher in recent years as Washington DC battled the Covid-19 pandemic with massive fiscal stimulus, there's little beauty in Trump's bill. Read the full story The supreme court on Thursday cleared the way for the deportation of several immigrants who were put on a flight in May bound for South Sudan, a war-ravaged country where they have no ties. The decision comes after the court's conservative majority found that immigration officials can quickly deport people to third countries. The majority halted an order that had allowed immigrants to challenge any removals to countries outside their homeland where they could be in danger. Read the full story The US supreme court announced on Thursday that it will consider a bid by West Virginia and Idaho to enforce their state laws banning transgender athletes from female sports teams at public sector schools. The decision means the court is prepared to take up another civil rights challenge to Republican-backed restrictions on transgender people. Read the full story Barack Obama, the former US president, sounded the alarm about Joe Biden's ailing re-election bid almost a year before polling day, warning his former vice-president's staff 'your campaign is a mess', a new book reveals. Read the full story A former CBS News anchor and 60 minutes correspondent, Dan Rather, has blasted the $16m settlement between Paramount, the parent company of CBS News, and Donald Trump, calling it a 'sad day for journalism'. 'It's a sad day for 60 Minutes and CBS News,' Rather, a veteran journalist who was a CBS News anchor for over 20 years, told Variety in an interview published on Wednesday. 'I hope people will read the details of this and understand what it was. It was distortion by the president and a kneeling down and saying, 'yes, sir,' by billionaire corporate owners.' Read the full story A generation of scientific talent is at the brink of being lost to overseas competitors by the Trump administration's dismantling of the National Science Foundation (NSF), with unprecedented political interference at the agency jeopardizing the future of US industries and economic growth, according to a Guardian investigation. Read the full story The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, a sign of continuing strength in the labor market amid Donald Trump's trade war. The EU and US are closing in on a high-level 'framework' trade deal that would avert 50% tariffs on all exports from the bloc next Wednesday, Trump's self-imposed deadline. The Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries broke the record for the longest House floor speech ever on Thursday after he spoke for more than eight hours to delay a vote on Donald Trump's signature tax-and-spending bill. Donald Trump signed an executive order to increase entry fees for foreign tourists visiting US national parks. Catching up? Here's what happened on 2 July 2025.
The Guardian
04-07-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Trump news at a glance: Republicans pass bill that will cut federal safety net and boost immigration enforcement
The US House of Representatives passed Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill on Thursday, handing the president the first major legislative victory of his second term, with the bill expected to supercharge immigration enforcement and slash federal safety net programs. For decades, Republicans have argued that the US would be better off if taxes were low, and programs to help low-income Americans were harder to access. Thursday's bill will in effect make this a reality, fundamentally reordering two major social safety net programs, slashing funding and imposing new work requirements. Nonpartisan estimates say it will cost millions of people their benefits and the ripple effects, experts say, will be felt across the country, and not just by the poor. Meanwhile big tax cuts that were set to expire this year will be made permanent, with these provisions expected to generally benefit high earners more than most. Here's the latest: The 218-214 vote came after weeks of wrangling over the measure that Trump demanded be ready for his signature by Friday, the Independence Day holiday. Written by his Republican allies in Congress and unanimously rejected by Democrats, the bill traveled an uncertain road to passage that saw multiple all-night votes in the House and Senate and negotiations that lasted until the final hours before passage. Ultimately, Republicans who had objected to its cost and contents folded, and the bill passed with just two GOP defections: Thomas Massie, a rightwing Kentucky lawmaker, and Brian Fitzpatrick, who represents a Pennsylvania district that voted for Kamala Harris in last year's election. Read the full story Despite the many cuts to the social safety net, the bill is still hugely expensive. The CBO forecasts it will add $3.3tn to the deficit through 2034, mostly due to the tax cuts. For fiscal hawks concerned about the sustainability of the country's budget deficit, which has yawned higher in recent years as Washington DC battled the Covid-19 pandemic with massive fiscal stimulus, there's little beauty in Trump's bill. Read the full story The supreme court on Thursday cleared the way for the deportation of several immigrants who were put on a flight in May bound for South Sudan, a war-ravaged country where they have no ties. The decision comes after the court's conservative majority found that immigration officials can quickly deport people to third countries. The majority halted an order that had allowed immigrants to challenge any removals to countries outside their homeland where they could be in danger. Read the full story The US supreme court announced on Thursday that it will consider a bid by West Virginia and Idaho to enforce their state laws banning transgender athletes from female sports teams at public sector schools. The decision means the court is prepared to take up another civil rights challenge to Republican-backed restrictions on transgender people. Read the full story Barack Obama, the former US president, sounded the alarm about Joe Biden's ailing re-election bid almost a year before polling day, warning his former vice-president's staff 'your campaign is a mess', a new book reveals. Read the full story A former CBS News anchor and 60 minutes correspondent, Dan Rather, has blasted the $16m settlement between Paramount, the parent company of CBS News, and Donald Trump, calling it a 'sad day for journalism'. 'It's a sad day for 60 Minutes and CBS News,' Rather, a veteran journalist who was a CBS News anchor for over 20 years, told Variety in an interview published on Wednesday. 'I hope people will read the details of this and understand what it was. It was distortion by the president and a kneeling down and saying, 'yes, sir,' by billionaire corporate owners.' Read the full story A generation of scientific talent is at the brink of being lost to overseas competitors by the Trump administration's dismantling of the National Science Foundation (NSF), with unprecedented political interference at the agency jeopardizing the future of US industries and economic growth, according to a Guardian investigation. Read the full story The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, a sign of continuing strength in the labor market amid Donald Trump's trade war. The EU and US are closing in on a high-level 'framework' trade deal that would avert 50% tariffs on all exports from the bloc next Wednesday, Trump's self-imposed deadline. The Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries broke the record for the longest House floor speech ever on Thursday after he spoke for more than eight hours to delay a vote on Donald Trump's signature tax-and-spending bill. Donald Trump signed an executive order to increase entry fees for foreign tourists visiting US national parks. Catching up? Here's what happened on 2 July 2025.
E&E News
02-07-2025
- Business
- E&E News
Johnson, Trump push wary House Republicans for July 4 passage
Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump are digging in to pass Republicans' massive tax and safety-net reform bill by Friday in time for a July 4 celebration. The biggest hurdle in their way right now: dozens of House Republican holdouts who are wary the bill doesn't deliver on key promises they've made to their constituents. From fiscal hawks to vulnerable centrists worried about the Senate's steeper Medicaid cuts, a substantial cross-section of the House GOP conference would rather take the time to amend the package and send it back to the Senate. Advertisement Head GOP rebel Chip Roy of Texas said Tuesday the chances of passing a bill out of the House by that deadline are 'a hell of a lot lower than they were even 48 hours ago' based on what he saw of the Senate bill.
New York Times
27-06-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Fearing Tax Increases and Trump, G.O.P. Toils to Pass a Bill With Plenty to Hate
As Congress inches toward final action on the sweeping domestic policy package that President Trump is calling the 'big, beautiful bill,' it has come down to this: Republicans are preparing to back a measure that they fear gives their constituents little to love and lots to hate. The struggle Republicans are experiencing in securing votes for the legislation emanates from the fact that they are being asked to embrace steep cuts to the government safety net that could hit their states and districts hard — all in the service of extending existing tax cuts that don't offer much in the way of new benefits for most Americans. The heart of the legislation — $3.8 trillion in tax cuts — is already in place, enacted eight years ago during the first Trump administration. The measure simply extends those tax breaks, leaving Republican lawmakers unable to trumpet generous new tax savings for Americans. On the other hand, the bill would scale back popular health and nutrition programs to pay for part of the enormous cost of keeping the tax rates that are already in place. Reductions to Medicaid, SNAP and other safety net programs are not the only elements dividing the party. Republicans in states that have new clean energy projects started under a Biden-era program want those projects protected, while others want them ended immediately. A proposal to sell off public lands in the West has split Republicans from the region. A ban on states regulating artificial intelligence for 10 years is in dispute. Hard-right Republicans want much deeper cuts across the board. At the same time, the bulk of new spending in the legislation goes to the Pentagon and border security, two areas where Americans won't feel any boost in their own bank accounts. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
