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Veteran fund manager who predicted Nvidia stock rally resets forecast on China shock
Veteran fund manager who predicted Nvidia stock rally resets forecast on China shock

Yahoo

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Veteran fund manager who predicted Nvidia stock rally resets forecast on China shock

Veteran fund manager who predicted Nvidia stock rally resets forecast on China shock originally appeared on TheStreet. The move off the early April lows is impressive. The S&P 500 dropped 10% following President Trump's tariff announcement on April 2, so-called "Liberation Day," but has since recaptured all its losses and made new highs. The S&P 500's spring sell-off was fast and unexpected, sparking fear that trade war uncertainty would serve as a catalyst for stagflation or outright recession. As a result, many investors sold top performers, including Nvidia, before a massive post-sell-off run higher. An 82% rally in Nvidia's stock price since its early April low likely surprised many, and investors who missed the buy-the-dip move are likely shaking their heads, wondering if it's too late to buy. 💵💰💰💵 One who wasn't caught flat-footed by Nvidia's move is veteran Wall Street fund manager Dan Niles. In late April, he said Nvidia shares would likely continue climbing, writing in a post on X, "$NVDA: While their quarter ends in April, four reasons make me optimistic on the stock in the near-term," citing surging AI inference demand, among other things. It wasn't Niles's first correct call this year. In December, he chose cash as his top holding for 2025 over worries that stocks would drop before the S&P 500's 19% drop beginning in February. In April, he suggested the market sell-off was overdone, setting stocks up for gains. Now that Nvidia has rallied sharply higher to become the US stock market's largest company, with an eye-popping $4 trillion market capitalization, Niles has updated his outlook in the wake of a surprising shift in US-China regulations. Nvidia rides tsunami of AI demand to record highs Nvidia's ascent over the past few years is one for the record books. OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT—the fastest app to reach one million users—uncorked a tidal wave of interest in artificial intelligence research and development, causing Nvidia's revenue, profit, and share price to everyone is getting in on the AI action. Banks are using AI to hedge risks on portfolios and loans, manufacturers are evaluating its use in quality control and automation, retailers are embracing it to stop retail theft and improve supply chains, and healthcare companies are seeing if it can improve drug development and treatment. Even the US military is considering its use on the battlefield. AI may seem like a new thing, given that talk of it is everywhere. But AI R&D has been happening for many decades. The mathematician and computer scientist Alan Turing investigated AI computer design in the 1950s, and Rand Corp. developed the first AI program in 1956. Over the years, many science-fiction books and movies, including Terminator, have examined the potential of machines someday thinking for themselves. ChatGPT's launch has been AI's biggest Main Street moment, though. The large language model's ability to quickly parse data has spawned many rivals, including Google's Gemini, China's DeepSeek, and Amazon-backed Anthropic. Microsoft has rolled out CoPilot, and Meta Platforms is in the mix too. There's also been a surge in agentic AI in the past 12 months as companies of all sizes look to find ways to leverage AI "agents" for productivity and cost savings. All this means there's a tremendous need for computing power, and unfortunately, most networks aren't optimized to handle AI's heavy workloads. More Nvidia: Analysts revamp forecast for Nvidia-backed AI stock Nvidia stock could surge after surprising Taiwan Semi news Nvidia CEO sends blunt 7-word message on quantum computing As a result, hyperscalers like Google Cloud, Amazon's AWS, and Microsoft's Azure, along with most hybrid and private enterprise networks, have rushed to replace clunky servers running on legacy CPUs with high-end solutions like liquid-cooled server racks powered by Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). This seismic shift in network infrastructure has created a tsunami of demand for Nvidia, the de facto leader in GPUs and the software necessary for running them efficiently. The company's latest Blackwell GPUs can cost $30,000 to $40,000 each, and fully equipped server racks can cost millions. Unsurprisingly, Nvidia's annual revenue has surged to over $130 billion from about $27 billion in 2022, and its profit has similarly skyrocketed thanks to juicy margins. Its net income was $73 billion last fiscal year, up from $9.8 billion in 2022. Over this period, Nvidia's share price has catapulted 1,080% higher. Nvidia regains footing as China headwind eases Nvidia's rapid growth and share gains have rewarded long-term investors, but stocks don't rise or fall in a straight line, and even the most successful companies suffer notching all-time highs in February this year, shares came under pressure as economic worries raised concerns that AI infrastructure spending is peaking, particularly in the wake of reports that DeepSeek's latest AI chatbot was developed for only $6 million on older, less costly hardware. Nvidia was also dealt a blow by ongoing US regulatory scrutiny over selling next-gen technology to China. Worry that China may use Nvidia's GPUs against the US someday prompted significant restrictions on Nvidia's ability to market chips in China, resulting in a ban on sales of its most popular chip in China, the H20. In response, Nvidia was forced to take a $5.5 billion write-off earlier this year. The combination of a weakening stock market, economic recession risks amid tariff-fueled trade wars, AI spending risks, and product bans contributed to Nvidia stock falling 41% from its January high to its April low. Nvidia's shares have since recovered lost ground, with investors broadly concluding that the worst is now behind it. Hyperscaler and enterprise AI spending has yet to wobble and recently, President Trump's administration cleared the way for Nvidia to resume H20 chip sales in China, removing a key overhang. The potential for agentic AI to fuel inference demand for chips has also accelerated. The backdrop for improving tailwinds isn't surprising to Niles, given his late April conclusion that Nvidia's stock could head higher. And now that the China chip freeze has thawed, Niles has rebooted his bullish outlook. "W/ export restriction coming off, expect an order surge from China for $NVDA given fears they could come back," wrote Niles on X. "China has half the AI researchers in the world & is at least 20% of AI chip demand. China rev was out of Nvidia estimates post write-down but is now coming back." In April, Niles said he didn't anticipate removing China restrictions, which could now allow Nvidia to eventually "get clearance to sell a detuned version of their latest Blackwell chip into the China market at some point." That possibility could lead to a rethink of analysts' forward revenue and earnings estimates, with increases potentially supporting stock prices. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management thinks consensus revenue estimates could climb 10%. And, as for the risk that slowing AI R&D for training new AI chatbots and AI apps could ding demand for chips, Niles isn't convinced given token growth associated with using AI agents. "As agentic AI increasingly gets adopted and proliferates across the one device consumers always have with them, the smartphone, this token growth should remain strong," wrote Niles. "Hardware demand for inference should ultimately dwarf the demand for training." Todd Campbell has owned shares in Nvidia since fund manager who predicted Nvidia stock rally resets forecast on China shock first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 19, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 19, 2025, where it first appeared.

Why Opendoor Technologies Was Having Another Crazy Day
Why Opendoor Technologies Was Having Another Crazy Day

Yahoo

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Why Opendoor Technologies Was Having Another Crazy Day

Key Points The meme stock rally continued in Opendoor stock. After opening up significantly higher, the stock faded in regular trading. With the challenges in the housing market ongoing, the business still seems fundamentally weak. 10 stocks we like better than Opendoor Technologies › One day after soaring more than 30% on a meme-driven rally, shares of Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN) were up again, though this time there were signs that the rally, which seems to be a combination of a short squeeze and meme stock behavior, was starting to break. As of 2:36 p.m. ET, Opendoor was up 8.4% on high-volume trading after gaining more than 30% earlier in the session. The Opendoor surge continues Shares of Opendoor have now more than tripled in just a few weeks, seemingly after a post on Reddit's WallStreetBets page argued that the company could be the next Carvana, which has soared more than 10,000% since recovering from near-bankruptcy a few years ago. As the stock has moved higher, trading volume has soared, and it was over 466 million as of 2:39 p.m. ET, a record for the stock. With just 729 million shares outstanding, that means more than 60% of shares have changed hands, and the session is not yet finished. Opendoor may also be experiencing an ongoing short squeeze, as 24% of the stock was sold short as of a month ago, and short-sellers have likely moved to close their bets, given the surge in the stock. However, at the current trading volume, shorts shouldn't have a problem covering. What's next for Opendoor Opendoor stock surged in premarket trading and peaked in the regular session shortly after the market opened. From there, the stock gave up most of its gains, showing that the rally may have run its course. The business case for a recovery in the stock seems thin at this point as the housing market continues to be sluggish, and interest rate cuts seem less likely after the latest inflation report. Still, meme traders seem to have taken hold of the stock, and it will likely continue to be volatile over the coming days. Should you invest $1,000 in Opendoor Technologies right now? Before you buy stock in Opendoor Technologies, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Opendoor Technologies wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $674,281!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,050,415!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,058% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 179% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 15, 2025 Jeremy Bowman has positions in Carvana. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Why Opendoor Technologies Was Having Another Crazy Day was originally published by The Motley Fool

Why BigBear.ai Stock Skyrocketed 52.6% in the First Half of 2025 and Has Kept Surging
Why BigBear.ai Stock Skyrocketed 52.6% in the First Half of 2025 and Has Kept Surging

Yahoo

time7 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Why BigBear.ai Stock Skyrocketed 52.6% in the First Half of 2025 and Has Kept Surging

Key Points has gotten a big boost as investors have become increasingly interested in defense artificial intelligence (AI) plays. The company's most recent quarterly reports fell short of expectations, but investors are betting on future potential. has kept climbing in the second half of 2025 and could have breakout potential, but the company's valuation profile looks risky. 10 stocks we like better than › (NYSE: BBAI) stock recorded a huge rally across the first half of 2025. The company's share price surged 52.6% across the stretch, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Meanwhile, the S&P 500's (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) level increased roughly 5.5% across the same time frame. Despite substantial volatility, stock saw big gains across this year's first two quarters as investors continue to bet on artificial intelligence (AI) software and service providers. The company's share price has continued to see volatility in the second half of the year, but it's posted significant gains so far in July. stock surged as investors doubled down on AI plays Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks have seen some big valuation swings in 2025's first half, but the cohort generally enjoyed bullish momentum. started the year with some significant swings in January, and then went on to see a massive rally in February. Despite volatility connected to the rollout of DeepSeek's R-1 AI model, Palantir stock also saw strong gains early in the year's trading. The company's positioning in defense-related AI software helped support bullish valuation momentum, and excitement surrounding the business also helped boost share price. Some investors drew parallels between the companies and pointed to as a company with big growth opportunities in the defense software-and-services space, and the dynamic helped power a run-up for the company's stock. While has posted two somewhat underwhelming quarterly reports this year, that didn't stop its share price from notching strong gains in this 2025's first half. The company published results for the fourth quarter of its last fiscal year in March, with revenue increasing 8% year over year to $43.8 million and a loss of $0.43 per share in the period. The average Wall Street analyst estimate had called for a loss of roughly $0.05 per share on revenue of $54.6 million. In May, the company published results for this year's first quarter -- posting sales and earnings for the period that fell short of Wall Street's targets. The business posted revenue of $34.8 million and a $0.25 loss per share. The average analyst estimate called for sales of approximately $36.3 million and a loss of $0.06 per share. Sales were up just 5% year over year in the period, and margins came in softer than anticipated, but the stock enjoyed a strong rally following the report as investors bet on opportunities in the defense AI space. What's next for Despite some volatility, stock has continued to gain ground in this year's second half. The company's share price is up roughly 5% in this month's trading. Its valuation has gotten a boost from bullish analyst coverage and market momentum for defense AI plays. With guidance for sales between $160 million and $180 million, the midpoint of BigBear's target calls for annual revenue growth of roughly 7.5% over the $158.2 million in sales it posted last year. Valued at roughly $2.1 billion, the company is priced at approximately 12.4 times the average analyst estimate's target for this year's sales. While it's possible that sales will accelerate substantially with new contract wins, the company's valuation relative to its rate of sales growth suggests the stock is a risky play right now. Should you invest $1,000 in right now? Before you buy stock in consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $679,653!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,046,308!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,060% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 179% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 15, 2025 Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Why Stock Skyrocketed 52.6% in the First Half of 2025 and Has Kept Surging was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio

Flying Taxi CEO Is Billionaire Again After Stock's 160% Rally
Flying Taxi CEO Is Billionaire Again After Stock's 160% Rally

Bloomberg

time15-07-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Flying Taxi CEO Is Billionaire Again After Stock's 160% Rally

Four years after a much-hyped SPAC deal followed by a swift collapse, shares of flying taxi company Joby Aviation Inc. have rallied to an all-time high, lifting the value of its founder's stake to more than $1 billion. Chief Executive Officer JoeBen Bevirt, 51, owns a 12% stake in the air-mobility company worth $1.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The value of his holding has more than doubled since April 8, when the stock hit its low for the year. The shares were up 10% to $13.92 at 2:24 p.m. in New York trading.

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