Latest news with #stormsurge
Daily Mail
16-07-2025
- Climate
- Daily Mail
Spaghetti model maps Tropical Storm Dexter
The latest spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Dexter show that up to 20 million Americans may be in its path. The storm has already barreled over Central Florida and is now headed straight for Louisiana, where meteorologists warn cities like New Orleans could see heavy rainfall, storm surges, and flooding by Thursday. According to the latest tracks for the storm, nearly every spaghetti model takes Dexter straight through New Orleans before it spirals north into the Midwest. The latest forecast from meteorologist Levi Cowan has every spaghetti line for Tropical Storm Dexter cutting across the Florida Panhandle before moving into the Gulf of Mexico (now the Gulf of America) and approaching Louisiana. While some of the lines predict the storm will move north into Arkansas and Mississippi, others are predicting a much more widespread weather system that affects Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. In the worst-case scenarios, the tropical storm could impact between 18 and 20 million people in the Southeast and Gulf states this week. Cowan, the creator of the latest spaghetti model, is a meteorologist with a PhD in meteorology from Florida State University, specializing in tropical weather. His website, Tropical Tidbits , aggregates spaghetti models from multiple reputable forecasting sources, such as the National Weather Service's Global Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. These models all show possible storm paths and are frequently updated during hurricane season, making spaghetti lines a valuable tool for tracking major storms and warning residents in harm's way. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is still monitoring the weather disturbance, giving it a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. If it strengthens into a named storm, the disturbance, currently called Invest 93L, would be renamed Tropical Storm Dexter. Residents along the Gulf Coast are being urged to stay alert for updates, as AccuWeather predicts the system could bring as much as eight inches of rain to parts of Louisiana and Mississippi by Wednesday night. The storm has already caused thousands of flight delays and cancellations up and down the East Coast this week. On Monday and Tuesday alone, more than 18,000 flights were delayed and 3,800 into and out of the US were cancelled as more than a dozen major airports issued ground stops due to severe thunderstorms. Meteorologists with AccuWeather are currently projecting that Dexter will reach tropical storm status by Wednesday night, with sustained winds reaching up to 60 mph. They are also predicting that the storm will produce a three-foot storm surge, a rapid rise in sea level caused by hurricane-force winds pushing water inland. This could quickly lead to damaging flooding in high-risk areas like New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward and around Lake Pontchartrain. Forecasters also warned on Wednesday that the storm has the potential to stall out over the Gulf states, causing even more damage. 'If the tropical system slows or stalls after landfall, it could bring prolonged heavy rainfall and elevated flood threats to the Mississippi River Valley, disrupting travel and business operations across the region,' the AccuWeather team said in a statement. They added that power outages and hazardous flash floods, like the ones recently seen in New York and Texas , could occur once the storm strengthens in the Gulf.
Irish Times
24-06-2025
- General
- Irish Times
Fending off coastal erosion: one Co Kerry community's story
Knowing that in a matter of minutes a storm surge could mean something close to obliteration of the place where you live makes people think differently about the best way to respond to an uncertain future. This is the case in Maharees in west Kerry. Knowing the odds are stacked against you, what can you do? They have completed that soul-searching process and are acting upon it. It's a realisation that will soon confront hundreds of small communities around the Irish coastline, who will need to decide how they respond. Rather than giving in to doomism, a remarkable form of collective action can emerge if the right approach to community engagement is adopted, says Maharees Conservation Association co-founder Martha Farrell. It's about being frank but not dictating, balancing self-education with expert input. 'We're giving it our best shot. We're not magicians. We can't turn back sea-level rise [but] we can make it as liveable for people as possible,' she says. READ MORE The Maharees is like a large 'Y' separating Brandon Bay and Tralee Bay. The 5km-long tombola – Ireland's largest – is described as a bar or finger-like spit. It is, in effect, the community's only protection, Farrell says, and yet its most fragile asset links offshore islands located at the top of the Y. Marram grass, which they have planted extensively, stabilises the dune system and yet is fragile: 'It can be destroyed by just 10 footsteps'. It captures wind-driven sand. Chestnut fences meanwhile, stretching 800m to the west and in parts to the east, designate beach access routes and prevent grass from being trampled. As if that is not challenging enough, Maharees has a unique ecosystem created and constantly changed by wind, rain and sea. It is home to Ireland's largest amphibian, the natterjack toad. It is at the heart of a special area of conservation. Tralee Bay is an important breeding site for critically-endangered species such as angel sharks and white skates and an-EU designated special protection area for birdlife. They are in 'a living lab', Farrell says. But its vulnerability was becoming glaringly obvious, and the association emerged from this. The sea side was being lost and human activities – raves and parties in the dunes, 'wild parking' – were accelerating its demise. Over the winter of 2015-2016 the only road in and out of the Maharees peninsula was impassible on 17 occasions as raging seas threw up vast amounts of sand. Visiting on a sunny June day, its beauty and fragility is evident with large numbers of holidaymakers, watersports enthusiasts and day-trippers. A survey in August 2019 recorded 23,040 cars travelling the narrow Maharees road in one week. Group members are at Magherabeg Cut, having completed a beach clean. They stumbled across a nesting ringed plover and are concerned beach users will encroach. Locals Janne Spillane and Zoe Rush at work on the sand dunes. Photograph: Domnick Walsh Polite 'please keep off dunes' have given way to more blunt signage: 'Sand Dunes: They protect us! Let's protect them ... no wild camping.' Aerial photos show this has been successful. Maintaining the dynamic of the dunes is critical, Farrell says. It requires wrestling with evolving processes of sand erosion and natural deposition. Seaward facing dunes are in constant battle with the sea. And yet Marram planting and fencing is now revealing growback to levels last seen before human influence. The conversation began with two questions. 'We asked the people, 'what do you value about the place? What do you want the future Maharees to be?' There was no mention of climate change. Our vision came out of that,' she adds. Through an alliance with Creative Ireland and local development agency the Dingle Hub , the Neart Na Machairí project has brought their efforts to the next level. It has embedded creativity 'to help rethink behaviours and take action to ensure the Maharees is well-adapted in the face of climate change and biodiversity loss', says project designer Zoë Rush – neart being Irish for strength. Chestnut fences designate beach access routes and prevent Marram grass from being trampled. Photograph: Domnick Walsh Three artists – 'creative practitioners' – Emer Fallon, Silke Michels and Zoë Uí Fhaoláin-Green – help facilitate a creative and collaborative exploration of the future of Maharees. This will inform a community adaptation plan that will benefit many others directly facing the prospect of 1m sea-level rise this century. It has got strong backing from State agencies (particularly the National Parks & Wildlife Service); Kerry Co Council, academics and NGOs. 'Coastal resilience requires an integrated approach, drawing from deep place-based knowledge of these habitats and the customs and traditions of people who live within them, [with] expert guidance and collaboration with State agencies to support and incorporate community visions of change within strategic and financial planning provided by Dingle Hub,' Rush says. 'This is far more than artists just listening to communities and then illustrating their needs,' she says. It is working closely with 'a conservation group who have such a good connection with the people'. A steering group of four conservation group members was enhanced by locals from different sectors, going beyond the 50 people out of a population of 300 already active volunteers. Through intensive circulation of information and invites to events, 10 'community partners' were added; people ranging across tourism/hospitality; watersports, farming, fishing and long-term visitors. The first year was 'a climate learning journey', bringing in different experts with knowledge on habitats, ecology and coastal erosion, explaining risks to the community and 'how they make those decisions that will then affect their long-term prospects', Rush says. After a year 'all the community partners said, 'it's great listening and learning all this but we want action'.' Informed by workshops, the project was rejigged. Long-term visitor Mairead Kinsella wanted to share learning in a flyer for other visitors, Airbnbs and local businesses. This is not a typical 'come and visit this lovely place' guide. It represents a creative response to the unique biodiversity of the region and its vulnerabilities to climate change. It encourages visitors to consider their role in preserving the natural beauty and ecological integrity of the places they enjoy; the essence of regenerative tourism. Association chair Aidan O'Connor praised her contribution at a launch event in April: 'She listened to our story, learned about the challenges we face due to climate change, and created something that supports and uplifts us.' The Maharees in Co Kerry separates Brandon Bay and Tralee Bay. Photograph: Domnick Walsh Farrell says it's about sharing their identity: 'showing we are doing this already; you can go here, you can go there and learn about this place with us.' They want sustainable tourism as it is the lifeblood of the community, whether that's camper vans in the right place, people coming to their holiday homes or surfers in September – but not gentrification. Striking the right balance is endlessly challenging, not to mention the vulnerability of local heritage to climate change and need for resilient local food supplies. Farrell highlights the precarious location of the graveyard where her father's remains are buried. It is on an exposed mini headland beside a 13th century church looking out to Oileán tSeanaigh with its ancient monastic settlement. A total of 22 groups have visited their area seeking guidance. 'Some are looking for the magic wand but it's really about persistent graft, raising awareness and networking.' Yes, there are fears about runaway climate change, but what is more immediately scary, Farrell says, is working out how they can buy a rundown schoolhouse so it becomes their 'community resilience hub'; a place for people to gather and a haven when extreme weather and power outages strike again. After all, this is a group of committed volunteers 'with just 21 binoculars and a fold-up tent' in their possession.
CBC
19-06-2025
- Climate
- CBC
Erick makes landfall in southern Mexico as Category 3 hurricane
Powerful Hurricane Erick made landfall in Mexico's southern state of Oaxaca early Thursday, the National Hurricane Centre in Miami said. The hurricane's centre was located about 30 kilometres east of Punta Maldonado. Its maximum sustained winds were clocked at 205 km/h. It was moving northwest at 15 km/h, the hurricane centre said. The storm was downgraded slightly before making landfall, from a powerful Category 4 to a Category 3. While slightly reduced in power, Erick is still considered a major hurricane as a Category 3, which can carry winds of up to 210 km/h. The storm threaded the needle between the resorts of Acapulco and Puerto Escondido, tearing into a sparsely populated stretch of coastline near the border of Oaxaca and Guerrero states. Agricultural fields blanket the low-lying coastal area between small fishing villages. Erick is expected to rapidly weaken as it crashes into the coastal mountains of southern Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate late Thursday or early Friday, the hurricane centre said. The storm threatened to unleash destructive winds, flash floods and a dangerous storm surge, forecasters said. Storm moves south on approach At first light Thursday, Acapulco awoke under ominous dark clouds, but without a drop of rain and small waves lapping at its central beach. However, the storm was forecast to move northwest just inland up the coast through midday, bringing heavy rain to the resort and the mountains that tower dramatically above it. Still, it appeared Acapulco had dodged the worst at least in terms of Erick's strong winds. Late Wednesday, Erick's projected path had crept south, closer to the resort city of Puerto Escondido in Oaxaca state, with Acapulco up the coast to the northwest. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said in a video message Wednesday night that all activities in the region were suspended and she urged people to stay in their homes or to move to shelters if they lived in low-lying areas. Waves were crashing onto the esplanade in Puerto Escondido by nightfall, swamping wooden fishing boats that had been pulled up there for safety. The beach disappeared under pounding waves and the rising tide had already reached the interiors of some waterfront restaurants. Acapulco still scarred by Otis Acapulco residents had braced for Erick's arrival with more preparation and trepidation because of the memory of the devastation wrought by Hurricane Otis two years earlier. The city of nearly one million was devastated in October 2023 by Hurricane Otis, a Category 5 hurricane that rapidly intensified and caught many unprepared. At least 52 people died in Otis and the storm severely damaged almost all of the resort's hotels. Guerrero state Gov. Evelyn Salgado said via X that all movement in Acapulco and other beach communities was to be suspended at 8 p.m. local time Wednesday. Schools across the state were to remain closed for a second day Thursday. WATCH | Aftermath of 2023 Hurricane Otis in Acapulco: See the aftermath of Hurricane Otis in Acapulco 2 years ago Duration 0:43 Carlos Ozuna Romero, 51, lost his restaurant at the edge of an Acapulco beach when Otis slammed the resort with devastating winds. On Wednesday, he directed workers storing tables and chairs. "Authorities' warnings fill us with fear and obviously make us remember everything we've already been through," Ozuna Romero said in reference to Otis. Elsewhere, workers nailed sheets of plywood over shop windows and stacked sandbags outside doorways. Cars lined up to fill their tanks and shoppers made last-minute purchases before rushing home. Verónica Gómez struggled through the streets of Acapulco with a large jug of water. "We're all afraid because we think the same thing could happen," said the 40-year-old employee of a shipping company. But she said she and others learned a lot from Otis. "Now it's not going to catch us by surprise," she said, holding out a bag of canned food as evidence. In Acapulco on Wednesday, there was a strong presence of National Guard and police in the streets, but most visible were trucks from the national power company. Crews worked to clear drainage canals and brush. Rain could be Erick's legacy Laura Velázquez, Mexico's national civil defence co-ordinator, said Erick was forecast to bring "torrential" rains to Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas in southern Mexico. The mountainous region along the coast is especially prone to mudslides with numerous rivers at risk of flooding.
Yahoo
19-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane Erick Makes Category 3 Mexico Landfall With Life-Threatening Flooding, High Winds
Hurricane Erick has made landfall in southern Mexico at Category 3 intensity with life-threatening storm surge, rainfall flooding and high winds. Erick rapidly intensified from a 40 mph tropical storm Tuesday morning to Cat 4 intensity at midnight Thursday morning. Six hours later, Erick made landfall in extreme western Oaxaca state east of Punta Maldonado as a Cat 3 with 125 mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center. Erick became the first Eastern Pacific major hurricane on record to landfall in Mexico prior to August, in records dating to the late 1950s. The previous earliest major hurricane to landfall in western Mexico from the Pacific side was Kiko, on Aug. 26, 1989, in the southern Baja Peninsula, according to NOAA records. (MORE: What Is Rapid Intensification?) Erick became the Eastern Pacific's second hurricane of the season early Wednesday morning, almost four weeks ahead of the season's average second hurricane pace. The season's fifth storm has historically formed by July 23, based on the 1991-2020 average. -Alerts: Hurricane warnings are posted for parts of Mexico's Guerrero and Oaxaca states, including Acapulco. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings extend to the west and east of this hurricane warning, as shown in the map below. (MORE: Rating Hurricanes With The Saffir-Simpson Scale) -Timing, Intensity: Now inland, Erick is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate by late tonight or early Friday, but will still lash parts of southern Mexico the rest of the day. -Surge, Wind Impacts: Erick's worst storm surge and devastating wind impacts will be along and just east of where the center comes ashore in parts of western Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero states. Those greatest threats will be east of Acapulco, but strong wind gusts are also possible in the city, particularly over higher terrain. (MORE: Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Go '0 For June.' Does That Matter?) -Heavy Rain A More Widespread Threat: The heaviest totals of 8 to 12 inches, with locally up to 16 inches possible, are forecast in the Oaxaca and Guerrero states. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely and mudslides are a threat in the mountainous terrain near this coast.
Daily Mail
19-06-2025
- Climate
- Daily Mail
BREAKING NEWS Hurricane Erick threatens 2m with catastrophic conditions as Category 3 storm makes landfall
More than two million people are in the path of a powerful Category 3 hurricane that has made landfall in western Mexico. Hurricane Erick hit over southwest Mexico, primarily the western part of Oaxaca and the eastern part of Guerrero, at around 7:50am ET. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a warning from Acapulco to Puerto Angel, saying Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches. 'This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain,' NHC said in a Thursday morning alert. 'A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds,' the alert continued. 'Large and destructive waves will accompany the surge.' This is a developing story... More updates to come
