Latest news with #sugar
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21 hours ago
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Sugar Prices Rise as JPMorgan Projects Smaller Supplies
July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) today is up +0.17 (+1.09%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) is up +6.90 (+1.44%). Sugar prices are moving higher today as short-covering emerged after JPMorgan Chase revised its Brazil sugar outlook for 2025/26 to a deficit of -900,000 MT from a previous projection of a +200,000 MT surplus, citing disappointing yields and a low sucrose content in Brazil's sugar harvest. Coffee Prices Move Higher as the Dollar Falls Cocoa Prices Jump as Ghana Cuts its Cocoa Production Forecast Sugar Prices Tumble on an Expected Global Sugar Surplus Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Sugar prices have plummeted over the past three months, with NY sugar posting a 4-year low in its nearest futures contract on Thursday. Sugar prices have sold off due to expectations of a global sugar surplus. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with a global sugar surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year. The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. The outlook for abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. On April 15, India's Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. India's monsoon season runs from June through September. Signs of larger global sugar output are negative for prices. On May 22, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. Also, India's 2025/26 sugar production is projected to rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, citing favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. In addition, Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT. In a bearish factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing the restrictions placed on sugar exports in 2023. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30, after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. However, the ISMA projects that India's 2024/25 sugar production will fall -17.5% y/y to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT. Also, the ISMA reported last Monday that India's sugar production from Oct 1-May 15 was 25.74 MMT, down -17% from the same period last year. In addition, Indian Food Secretary Chopra said on May 1 that India's 2024/25 sugar exports may only total 800,000 MT, below earlier expectations of 1 MMT. The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. On May 2, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar. A positive factor for sugar prices is the expected increase in sugar imports from Pakistan, following the Pakistani government's announcement last Friday that it plans to import 250,000 metric tons of raw sugar due to a disappointing sugarcane harvest. Sugar prices have some support from reduced sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported last Monday that the cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Center-South sugar output through May is down by -11.6% y/y to 6.954 MMT. Last month, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, said 2024/25 Brazil sugar production fell -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market following the 2023/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. ISO also cut its 2024/25 global sugar production forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT. The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
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2 days ago
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Sugar Prices Tumble on an Expected Global Sugar Surplus
July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) today is down -0.38 (-2.38%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) is down -0.80 (-0.17%). Sugar prices today extended their three-month-long selloff, with NY sugar dropping to a 4-year nearest-futures low. Sugar prices have been under pressure over the past three months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with a global sugar surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year. Coffee Prices Extend 2-week Plunge as Frost Risks Recede in Brazil West African Cocoa Crop Optimism Weighs on Prices Sugar Prices Boosted by Strength in Crude Oil Prices Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. The outlook for abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. On April 15, India's Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. India's monsoon season runs from June through September. Signs of larger global sugar output are negative for prices. On May 22, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. Also, India's 2025/26 sugar production is projected to rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, citing favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. In addition, Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT. In a bearish factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing the restrictions placed on sugar exports in 2023. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30, after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. However, the ISMA projects that India's 2024/25 sugar production will fall -17.5% y/y to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT. Also, the ISMA reported last Monday that India's sugar production from Oct 1-May 15 was 25.74 MMT, down -17% from the same period last year. In addition, Indian Food Secretary Chopra said on May 1 that India's 2024/25 sugar exports may only total 800,000 MT, below earlier expectations of 1 MMT. The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. On May 2, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar. A positive factor for sugar prices is the expected increase in sugar imports from Pakistan, following the Pakistani government's announcement last Friday that it plans to import 250,000 metric tons of raw sugar due to a disappointing sugarcane harvest. Sugar prices have some support from reduced sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported last Monday that the cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Center-South sugar output through May is down by -11.6% y/y to 6.954 MMT. Last month, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, said 2024/25 Brazil sugar production fell -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market following the 2023/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. ISO also cut its 2024/25 global sugar production forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT. The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
3 days ago
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Weakness in Crude Oil Weighs on Sugar Prices
July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) Tuesday closed down -0.27 (-1.68%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) closed up +0.50 (+0.11%). Sugar prices on Tuesday settled mixed, with NY sugar slumping to a 4-year nearest-futures low. Tuesday's -5% plunge in crude prices (CLQ25) weighed on sugar prices. Lower crude prices undercut ethanol prices and may prompt the world's sugar mills to divert cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies. Robusta Coffee Prices Are Still Falling. Are We Finally at an Inflection Point? Coffee Prices Slammed as Frost Risks in Brazil Recede Are New Contract Highs in Store for Lean Hogs? Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! However, sugar prices recovered from their worst levels, with London sugar pushing into positive territory, as the decline in the dollar index (DXY00) to a one-week low prompted some short covering in sugar futures. Sugar prices have fallen over the past three months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% year-over-year (y/y) to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with a global sugar surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year. The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. The outlook for abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. On April 15, India's Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. India's monsoon season runs from June through September. Signs of larger global sugar output are negative for prices. On May 22, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. Also, India's 2025/26 sugar production is projected to rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, citing favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. In addition, Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT. In a bearish factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing the restrictions placed on sugar exports in 2023. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30, after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. However, the ISMA projects that India's 2024/25 sugar production will fall -17.5% y/y to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT. Also, the ISMA reported last Monday that India's sugar production from Oct 1-May 15 was 25.74 MMT, down -17% from the same period last year. In addition, Indian Food Secretary Chopra said on May 1 that India's 2024/25 sugar exports may only total 800,000 MT, below earlier expectations of 1 MMT. The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. On May 2, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar. A positive factor for sugar prices is the expected increase in sugar imports from Pakistan, following the Pakistani government's announcement last Friday that it plans to import 250,000 metric tons of raw sugar due to a disappointing sugarcane harvest. Sugar prices have some support from reduced sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported last Monday that cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Center-South sugar output through May is down by -11.6% y/y to 6.954 MMT. Last month, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, said 2024/25 Brazil sugar production fell -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market following the 2023/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. ISO also cut its 2024/25 global sugar production forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT. The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
3 days ago
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Sugar Prices are Undercut by Lower Crude Oil Prices
July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) today is down -0.26 (-1.62%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) is down -0.80 (-0.174%). Sugar prices are under pressure today, with NY sugar slumping to a 4-year nearest-futures low. Today's -5% plunge in crude prices (CLQ25) is weighing on sugar prices. Lower crude prices undercut ethanol prices and may prompt the world's sugar mills to divert cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies. Slack Rain and Frost Threats in Brazil Push Coffee Prices Sharply Higher Slowing Ivory Coast Cocoa Exports Boosts Cocoa Prices Cattle Hit a Speedbump Last Week. Is This the End of the Bull Run? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. Sugar prices have fallen over the past three months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% year-over-year (y/y) to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with a global sugar surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year. The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. The outlook for abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. On April 15, India's Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. India's monsoon season runs from June through September. Signs of larger global sugar output are negative for prices. On May 22, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. Also, India's 2025/26 sugar production is projected to rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, citing favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. In addition, Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT. In a bearish factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing the restrictions placed on sugar exports in 2023. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30, after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. However, the ISMA projects that India's 2024/25 sugar production will fall -17.5% y/y to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT. Also, the ISMA reported last Monday that India's sugar production from Oct 1-May 15 was 25.74 MMT, down -17% from the same period last year. In addition, Indian Food Secretary Chopra said on May 1 that India's 2024/25 sugar exports may only total 800,000 MT, below earlier expectations of 1 MMT. The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. On May 2, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar. A positive factor for sugar prices is the expected increase in sugar imports from Pakistan, following the Pakistani government's announcement last Friday that it plans to import 250,000 metric tons of raw sugar due to a disappointing sugarcane harvest. Sugar prices have some support from reduced sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported last Monday that cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Center-South sugar output through May is down by -11.6% y/y to 6.954 MMT. Last month, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, said 2024/25 Brazil sugar production fell -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market following the 2023/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. ISO also cut its 2024/25 global sugar production forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT. The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
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3 days ago
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Sao Martinho SA (BSP:SMTO3) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges and ...
Sales Volume: Decreased by approximately 38% compared to the previous quarter. Sugar Production: Dropped by 46% quarter-on-quarter. Ethanol Volume: Decreased by 33%, but price increased by 33.2%. EBITDA: Declined by 33%. EBIT: Down by 45%. Cash Income: Reduced by 42%. Sugarcane-based Ethanol Cost: Increased by 2% to BRL2,017 per ton. Margin: Decreased from 20.8% to 18.2%. Net Debt: Ended March '25 at BRL4.9 billion, 1.4 times net debt over EBITDA. CapEx: BRL2.7 billion, slightly below the initial estimate of BRL2.8 billion. Corn Ethanol Cash Cost: BRL2,789 per cubic meter. Cane Ethanol Cash Cost: Lower than corn ethanol at BRL2,600 per cubic meter. Debt Growth: Attributed to compensation to shareholders and judicial deposits. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with BSP:SMTO3. Release Date: June 24, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Sao Martinho SA (BSP:SMTO3) managed to maintain ethanol net income in line despite a 33% drop in volume, thanks to strategic sales timing. The company anticipates a 5% reduction in both ethanol and sugar costs due to lower diesel oil prices and improved cost management. Corn ethanol production at Boa Vista mill showed significant cash generation, with a breakeven cost of BRL1.6 per liter, highlighting its competitiveness. Sao Martinho SA (BSP:SMTO3) completed major projects, including a high-pressure boiler and biomethane plant, which are expected to enhance revenue and EBITDA. The company is focusing on optimizing its industrial portfolio and agricultural investments, aiming for increased resilience and productivity. Sao Martinho SA (BSP:SMTO3) experienced a 38% decrease in sales volume in Q4 due to fires impacting sugarcane production. EBITDA, EBIT, and cash income dropped significantly by 33%, 45%, and 42% respectively, reflecting the challenging quarter. The company faced a 46% drop in sugar production quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to fire-related disruptions. There is uncertainty in sugar and ethanol production guidance due to recent market events and climate impacts. The judicial deposits related to registered warrants remain unresolved, tying up significant financial resources. Q: Can you provide an update on the corn ethanol plant expansion and your capital allocation strategy? A: Fabio Venturelli, CEO, stated that the decision on the corn ethanol plant expansion is pending and expected in the second half of the year. The project aims to increase capacity to 585,000 tons of corn, with completion targeted for mid-2027. The company is also considering renting corn storage to optimize CapEx. Capital allocation will focus on the corn ethanol project and biomethane, with no current plans to acquire other mills. Q: What are the expectations for corn ethanol cash generation and inventory levels for the next crop year? A: Fabio Venturelli noted that the corn ethanol plant generated nearly BRL300 million in cash last year. With lower corn prices and stable ethanol prices, the company anticipates improved cost efficiency. They aim to avoid high inventory levels by March, focusing on hydrous ethanol to expedite credit monetization. Q: Could you elaborate on the increase in hydrous ethanol credits and the company's production targets? A: Felipe Vicchiato, CFO, explained that the increase in hydrous ethanol credits is due to judicial decisions allowing credit for inputs. The company plans to maximize hydrous ethanol production to monetize these credits over the next two to three years. The target is to reach 24 million tons of crushing, with investments in technology and climate resilience. Q: How do you view the future of sugarcane and corn ethanol markets in Brazil? A: Fabio Venturelli emphasized the importance of technological advancements in sugarcane to maintain competitiveness. He foresees a consolidation in the industry, with fewer but more efficient players. Corn ethanol will complement sugarcane ethanol, ensuring Brazil remains a leader in renewable energy production. Q: What is the status of the judicial deposits related to registered warrants? A: Fabio Venturelli stated that the judicial deposits amount to BRL2.3 billion, related to PIS and COFINS taxes on registered warrants. The legal process is ongoing and slow, but the deposits are accruing interest at the Selic rate, ensuring asset value preservation. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
