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Why COVID Spikes in the Summer, and How to Stay Safe
Why COVID Spikes in the Summer, and How to Stay Safe

WebMD

time2 days ago

  • Health
  • WebMD

Why COVID Spikes in the Summer, and How to Stay Safe

With cases climbing again, you might be wondering why a "winter virus" keeps returning in the heat, and what you should be doing right now to protect yourself. "A couple of months ago, experts were uncertain about a summer wave," said Jodie Guest, PhD, an epidemiologist at Emory University in Atlanta who has tracked COVID since the start of the pandemic. "The low levels of respiratory illness in spring 2025 and stable variant landscape suggested a quiet summer." But three key indicators now have COVID watchdogs sounding the alarm: a new virus strain, increasing wastewater levels, and emergency room visit upticks in parts of the U.S. The CDC now lists the "COVID-19 epidemic trend" as growing or likely growing for more than half of U.S. states. The strongest indicators were seen in Arkansas, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. Here's what to know about summer COVID, and how to protect yourself – especially if you have a summer vacation or travel coming up. I thought COVID was a big risk during flu season. Did something change? No, COVID has always had two waves, about six months apart – one in the summer and the other at the height of winter "respiratory season," when flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) also rage. The winter wave typically peaks sometime between "December and February, coinciding with colder weather and increased indoor gatherings," said Guest, senior vice chair of the Department of Epidemiology at Emory's Rollins School of Public Health. "Summer waves have occurred sporadically, often driven by new variants or waning immunity." Here's when COVID peaked the past three summers: 2022: Around Aug. 1 2023: Around Sept. 30 2024: Around Aug. 31 This timing has prompted some experts to theorize that summer waves may be linked to people spending more time indoors with air conditioning during the height of summer heat. Why are there two COVID waves, but influenza only spikes once per year? Some scientists point to rapid mutations and waning immunity from past infection or vaccination. "A big chunk of people will get sick in a wave, and they'll have pretty good immunity to that particular variant, and that immunity is enough to sort of stop that wave in its tracks," said Emily Landon, MD, an infectious disease specialist at UChicago Medicine in Illinois. The virus then needs to change enough to evade existing immunity before another cycle starts back up. A second theory suggests there are three distinct groups of people – a summer group, a winter group, and a group that gets infected twice a year. The idea is based on the idea that people vary in how long they're immune after infection, vaccination, or both. Scientists still need more data to know for sure, "but the bottom line is we're certainly seeing a big increase in cases in the summer and a big increase of cases in the winter," Landon said. Is this surge caused by the new variant? Yes, partly. NB.1.8.1 – or Nimbus – has been on the rise in Asia recently, and it now accounts for as many as 43% of new cases in the U.S., up from 24% at the beginning of June, according to CDC data. It's the variant known for a " razor blade" sore throat symptom, although it doesn't appear to cause more severe illness than other versions of the virus, Landon said. This geographic pattern has become pretty set: A rising variant in Asia or Europe typically foreshadows a rise in the U.S., said Sabrina A. Assoumou, MD, MPH, an infectious disease doctor and professor at Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine. Another regional clue: "We have typically seen that the [U.S.] rise in cases starts in the South," said Assoumou. She noted that some of the highest wastewater levels of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) are in Florida and Alabama right now. "This is often followed by increases in other parts of the nation such as the Northeast." How can I protect myself from summer COVID? Make sure your vaccination is current. If you got a COVID shot last winter, you're probably good, Landon said. But if you're 65 or older, immunocompromised, or have a health condition that puts you at high risk – the CDC website maintains a list of qualifying conditions – ask your health care provider if you need a booster now. People with upcoming travel should consider a booster, too. Landon, who has rheumatoid arthritis and receives treatment that affects her immune system, just got a booster because she's going on vacation soon. "I want the best protection since I know that we're seeing the beginning of a summer spike," she said. Remember that masks are still an effective tool. If you're traveling, wear a mask like an N-95, KN-95, or KF-94, and make it as snug as you can tolerate. Don't just wear it on the plane; wear it while lining up to board, too. It is OK to slip it down to sip a drink or eat a snack while in flight. "I would absolutely recommend that everyone wear a mask on an airplane," Landon said. "The last thing you want is even any kind of cold, let alone COVID, when you're on vacation." Pack some COVID tests in your travel bag. If you know you have COVID, you can consider starting antiviral medication right away, which can reduce your risk of hospitalization. Maybe bring a Paxlovid prescription too. If you're older or have a condition that puts you at high risk, ask your doctor to prescribe Paxlovid or another antiviral called molnupiravir to bring with you in case you get sick. Ask sick people to stay home. If you're planning a summer party, Landon suggested adding a note to the bottom of the invite that says, "We have some high-risk people coming. If you're not feeling well, we'll take a pass and meet up with you another time when you're feeling better." Some people feel obligated to attend parties even when they aren't feeling well. "Letting them know that they're off the hook if they're sick and that you really don't want them to come if they're sick is a really important way that you can help protect your own health and help other people to do the right thing," Landon said.

COVID cases likely rising in half of states, CDC estimates
COVID cases likely rising in half of states, CDC estimates

CBS News

time11-07-2025

  • Health
  • CBS News

COVID cases likely rising in half of states, CDC estimates

Cases of COVID-19 are now likely growing in 25 states, according to estimates published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday, as this year's summer wave of the virus appears to be getting underway. The agency's modeling suggests that the uptick is in "many" Southeast, Southern and West Coast states, the CDC said in its weekly update. COVID-19 activity nationwide, however, is still considered "low," based on data from wastewater samples, although that is up from "very low" the week before. Some of the highest rates of COVID-19 in emergency rooms are in the Pacific Northwest, which saw a steep rise in ER visits during June, and in the Southeast, which has seen rates steadily inch up for weeks. Rates are now the highest they've been since February and March in those regions. Health officials have been watching for an increase in COVID-19 this summer, as new variants have spread to the U.S. after fueling surges overseas. A CDC analysis published Thursday concluded that the virus has settled into twice-a-year surges nationwide, typically peaking first in July through September and then a second time later in December through February. Those surges look to be linked to cycles of genetic changes to a part of the virus that scientists call the S1 region, a key part of the spike protein of the virus that binds to human cells. "Our analysis revealed biannual COVID-19 peaks in late summer and winter, a pattern that is expected to persist as long as the rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and cyclical S1 diversity continues," the scientists wrote in the CDC analysis. COVID-19's rise comes as health officials have been probing reports of an unusual uptick in another respiratory virus called parvovirus B19. While many people develop no symptoms from parvovirus B19 infections, some people get sick with signs like fever and muscle pains, followed by a rash. The CDC warned late last month of a "sustained increase" in transmission of parvovirus B19, and suggested that pregnant women consider masking to curb the risk of severe complications. Some local health departments have also tracked a rise in emergency rooms treating cases of this virus. "Several of the most recent weeks saw the highest percentage of B19-associated ED visits compared to the same week in all years since 2015," health officials in Chicago warned on Thursday.

As new Covid strain from China hits the US... some experts are calling for FACE MASKS to return
As new Covid strain from China hits the US... some experts are calling for FACE MASKS to return

Daily Mail​

time27-05-2025

  • General
  • Daily Mail​

As new Covid strain from China hits the US... some experts are calling for FACE MASKS to return

Some experts are urging people to mask up amid rising alarm over a new Covid variant — and fears of a summer wave of infections. The NB.1.8.1 strain is already thought to be driving a wave of infections across China, Hong Kong and Thailand — along with upticks in hospitalizations. In the US, there have been fewer than 20 cases detected to date. But the strain has been detected in travelers arriving in California, Washington state, Virginia and New York City, raising fears it may be spreading quickly. Lab tests suggest the variant is more infectious than currently circulating strains, which means it could lead to a spike in infections and potentially hospital admissions. In Hong Kong, officials are already urging people to mask up, particularly while on public transport or in crowded places. And in the US, chatter about masks is beginning to creep in. Dr Amy Edwards, a pediatrician at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, told CBS News today that anyone who feels a 'little under the weather' should 'wear a mask'. Another expert calling for masks is Dr Melanie Matheu, an immunologist from California who previously studied at the University of California, San Francisco. She told her 336,000 TikTok followers the US should brace for a 'summer wave' worse than that from the previous year. NB.1.8.1 was declared a variant under monitoring by the World Health Organization on Friday. Patients sickened with the strain are suffering from similar symptoms to those infected with other variants, scientists say, including a fever, cough, sore throat and fatigue. It is not clear how many deaths due to the variant have been recorded. In China, data shows the proportion of severely ill respiratory patients with Covid has jumped from 3.3 to 6.3 percent over the last month, while the proportion of Chinese ER patients testing positive for the disease has jumped from 7.5 to 16.2 percent. Officials in Taiwan are also reporting a surge in Covid ER admissions, with numbers rising 78 percent in a week over the seven days to May 3, the latest data shows. And in Hong Kong, the proportion of swabs testing positive for the virus has now hit a 12-month high — at 13.66 percent of samples used. Dr Edwards said: 'If you're a little under the weather, but well enough to be out and about, wear a mask.' Advising on other strategies to control the virus, she said: 'Good cough and sneezing hygiene, good hand washing, staying home if you're not feeling well to keep other people from catching what you've got.' Dr Matheu added: 'My advice would be the same around these variants. 'Make sure you get your updated booster, wear a mask — especially if you are vulnerable, high risk, live or work with anyone who is vulnerable or high risk — and make sure there is good air circulation in your indoors and areas where you work.' Authorities in Hong Kong have already urged people to start wearing face masks again amid concern over the new variant. In a statement posted to the Hong Kong Department of Health's website, officials said: 'High-risk persons (e.g. persons with underlying medical conditions or persons who are immunocompromised) should wear surgical masks when visiting public places. 'The general public should also wear a surgical mask when traveling on public transport or staying in crowded places. 'When respiratory symptoms appear, one should wear a surgical mask, consider avoiding going to work or school, avoid going to crowded places and seek medical advice promptly.' A spokeswoman for the CDC said the agency was 'aware' of the new variant, but said few cases had been detected to date. NB.1.8.1 was first detected in January this year and is thought to have originated somewhere in Asia. To date, it has now spread to 22 countries and a total of 518 cases have been detected. There is no data on hospitalizations or deaths. Scientists say, however, that the infection figures are likely a huge underestimate — pointing out that many now do not test for Covid and that government's have majorly scaled back their Covid variant monitoring programs. The proportion of cases caused by the variant is spiking globally, and is up four-fold in the latest month with data available. It was behind 2.5 percent of all Covid cases globally at the start of April, but by the end of the month, this had surged to 10.7 percent. Travelers arriving in the US infected with the variant arrived between April 22 and May 12 from the following countries: China, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, France, the Netherlands and Spain. The variant has also been detected in Hawaii, Rhode Island and Ohio.

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