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Middle East Eye
03-07-2025
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
After ceasefire, Iran is preparing for the long war with Israel
An uneasy US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran has ended a 12-day exchange of strikes, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring victory. It marked one of the shortest wars of the 21st century. Yet Iran, too, has claimed victory, much like it did at the end of the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, the longest conventional war of the 20th century, when then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein also declared victory. In both cases, Iran was the target of attack and framed the conflicts as "imposed wars" (jang-e tahmili), arguing that they were launched with a "green light" from the United States. Also in both cases, Iran paired its declaration of victory with a posture of strategic patience (sabr-e rahbordi) - a doctrine of restraint aimed at shifting the balance over time. After the Iran-Iraq War, it waited, letting time and circumstance play to its advantage. It was ultimately the US, not Iran, that dismantled Saddam's weapons of mass destruction during the 1991 Gulf War and later overthrew him entirely in 2003. From Tehran's perspective, the same strategic patience principle is being applied again today. The current ceasefire, while publicly welcomed, is widely seen - especially in Iran's political and military circles - as a tactical pause rather than a sustainable peace. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Strategic pause For Iran, the ceasefire with Israel serves a clear strategic purpose. In line with its long-standing approach of strategic patience, time is a resource. Iran will recalibrate its nuclear strategy, expand regional alliances, and test the limits of international resolve. During this period, Iranian planners are expected to re-examine their deterrence doctrines, potentially including asymmetric naval capabilities and cyber operations, while crafting a long-term retaliatory posture. In line with its long-standing strategy of strategic patience, Iran sees time as a resource to recalibrate its nuclear posture, expand alliances, and test global resolve Time provides Tehran with critical breathing room to: first, restructure its leadership; second, replenish its arms; and third, plan an international diplomatic offensive. In June 1981, the Islamic Republican Party was bombed, killing its secretary-general, Mohammad Beheshti and 74 high-ranking officials. That same month, Iran lost one of its most influential military commanders, Mostafa Chamran, on the front lines with Iraq. In August 1981, Iran's newly elected president, Mohammad-Ali Rajai and Prime Minister Mohammad-Javad Bahonar were assassinated in a bombing at the prime minister's office in Tehran. The attack was carried out by the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK). This armed opposition group had turned against the Islamic Republic and allied itself with Saddam's regime during the Iran-Iraq War. The bomb was planted by Masoud Keshmiri, an MEK operative who had infiltrated the government posing as a security official. The explosion killed eight high-ranking officials, including the president, prime minister, the chief of national police, senior military advisers, and members of the Supreme National Security Council, making it one of the deadliest acts of internal sabotage in the early years of the war. Nevertheless, despite the loss, Iran was still able to launch a counter-attack that expelled all Iraqi forces from Iranian soil. Rebuilding and rearming On the morning of Friday, 13 June 2025, Israel launched its most extensive military operation against Iran to date. Its strikes went far beyond nuclear and missile facilities, targeting senior military commanders and scientists. Among those assassinated were Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami, and aerospace chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh, along with several nuclear scientists and military officials. Yet Iran was still able to mount missile attacks against Israel, overwhelming its vaunted anti-missile defence system. Iran can now shift its focus towards rebuilding and rearming. The war depleted Iran's short- and medium-range missile stockpiles and damaged its missile-launching infrastructure, much of which was targeted in the initial waves of Israeli and US strikes. In this new phase of calm, Iran is expected to prioritise the replenishment and modernisation of its missile arsenal, including newer classes such as the Fattah and Kheibar Shekan hypersonic missiles, while bolstering its air defences to anticipate any future surprise attacks. One of the most critical lessons Iran has drawn from this recent war is that victory in a modern conflict is not achievable without a capable and advanced air force. While Iran's reliance on missile and drone-based deterrence showcased some tactical strengths, it also exposed a critical vulnerability: such systems alone are fragile when confronted with advanced aerial and electronic warfare capabilities. To address this strategic gap, Iran is now expected to urgently pursue the acquisition of Russia's S-400 air defence systems and Su-35 fighter jets. Follow Middle East Eye's live coverage of the Israel-Palestine war Simultaneously, Chinese combat aircraft, such as the J-10 and the fifth-generation J-20, which demonstrated their capabilities in the recent India-Pakistan standoff, are being seriously considered. Beyond these platforms, Iranian military planners have acknowledged another significant deficiency: the lack of airborne early warning systems. Even the most advanced ground-based air defence becomes severely limited without Airborne Warning and Control Systems (Awacs), which are essential for real-time detection and coordination. Thus, the acquisition of Awacs aircraft from China or Russia has become an urgent priority in Tehran's defence modernisation agenda. Beyond the battlefield Iran is also laying the groundwork for a legal and diplomatic counteroffensive. Iranian officials have already announced their intention to submit a comprehensive complaint to the International Court of Justice, holding both Israel and the US responsible for initiating an undeclared war and violating Iranian sovereignty by targeting nuclear facilities protected under international law. Until this legal process reaches a stage of formal recognition and judgment, Tehran has made it clear that it will not return to the nuclear negotiation table. By allowing Israel to bomb Iran, Trump is pushing Tehran to go nuclear Read More » This pivot away from negotiations is not a sign of retreat, but a calculated manoeuvre. Meanwhile, another crucial variable remains hidden from international view: Iran's president has signed a law suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency under Director-General Rafael Grossi, citing biased oversight and political pressure. Prior to the war, and unbeknownst to most intelligence services, Tehran had reportedly transferred large quantities of enriched uranium from Fordow and Natanz to undisclosed secure locations. These reserves remain untouched by US and Israeli strikes, as no radiation was reported in Iran - indicating the stockpile was most likely undamaged. Iran could also choose not to disclose the whereabouts of these uranium stockpiles, using them as a strategic deterrence lever in future confrontations or negotiations. In light of all these factors, the current ceasefire is not a resolution - it is a chapter in a much larger, unfinished story. Iran's actions, both during and after the war, underscore a coherent and disciplined doctrine: absorb the blow, retaliate with calibrated precision, and use time as a tool of power. Strategic patience, for Tehran, is not passive restraint; it is a form of long-term psychological and political warfare. Whether the ceasefire holds or shatters under the weight of unresolved tensions will depend not just on missiles or negotiations, but on which side better understands the value of time. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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First Post
24-06-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Missing uranium: Will Trump's Iran strike echo Bush's hollow WMD war?
As 400 kg of highly enriched uranium remains untraceable in Iran, which was the basis of US airstrikes, there are questions whether the US intervention was based on a false premise like the 2003 invasion of Iraq based on the false premise of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). read more There are fears that the intervention in the Israel-Iran war could turn out like the doomed 2003 invasion of Iraq. Even as US airstrikes have dealt substantial damage to Iranian nuclear facilities, there is no evidence that those strikes neutralised Iranian nuclear capabilities. Such concerns are backed by increasing evidence that Iran had moved highly enriched uranium out of those facilities before US strikes. The fears of the US intervention now becoming a 2003 invasion-like scenario have risen with the Donald Trump administration's failure to answer in once voice whether the US intelligence agencies confirmed that Iran actually making a nuclear weapon. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Comparisons have been drawn with the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 as that invasion was launched to locate and neutralise weapons of mass destructions (WMDs) of then-Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein. However, no WMDs were discovered and then-US President George W Bush expressed regret about launching the invasion based on incorrect intelligence inputs and flawed analyses. Did US even confirm Iran's nuclear weapons programme? The biggest reason behind comparisons with the invasion of Iraq is the potentially flawed intelligence and analysis that drove the decision to attack Iran. In March, US intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard said that Iran was not yet developing a nuclear weapon under order from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. This month, Trump contracted him, who was later apparently contracted by his spokesperson. Trump on June 17 contradicted Gabbard and said, 'I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having one.' Trump on June 21 said that Gabbard's assessment that Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon was 'wrong'. The same day, White House contradicted Trump and said that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon within two weeks — implying that the development had not yet started. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday cast biggest doubts about the intelligence —if any— that drove US strikes. Rubio told CBS News' Margaret Brennan that 'it's an irrelevant question' when she asked him whether the US intelligence agencies confirmed that Iran was actually making nuclear weapons under orders from Khamenei. When she kept pressing, Rubio said that 'it doesn't matter if the order was given' by Khamenei. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Instead, Rubio flagged Iran's enrichment of uranium to near-weapons grade level and construction of underground nuclear sites and said that these were proof of Iran's intention to develop a nuclear weapon. When Brennan persisted with the questioning about the intelligence behind US strikes, Rubio gave the clearest indication that there was no intelligence confirmation about Iran was actually making a nuclear weapon under orders from Khamenei. 'I was simply asking if we had intelligence that there was an order to weaponize, because you have said weaponization ambitions, which implies they weren't doing it,' said Brennan. Rubio replied, 'Well, we have intelligence that they have everything they need to build a nuclear weapon.' Enriched uranium appears to have been relocated Even as Trump said that all three sites attacked were 'obliterated', there is little to no evidence to prove that. Instead, there is mounting evidence that Iran moved 400 kg of highly enriched uranium out of the harm's way before US strikes. Officials have spoken of such a relocation. Satellite imagery has shown 16 trucks at Fordow in the days leading up to strikes. It appears that these trucks carried the uranium to their new location. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that's one of the things that we're going to have conversations with the Iranians about,' Vice President JD Vance told ABC's 'This Week' on Sunday, referring to a batch of uranium sufficient to make nine or 10 atomic weapons. Nonetheless, he contended that the country's potential to weaponize that fuel had been set back substantially because it no longer had the equipment to turn that fuel into operative weapons. Separately, Israeli officials told The New York Times that their assessment says that even though US strikes caused serious damage, sites were not completely destroyed. They also said that there was evidence of uranium and equipment being moved out of these sites before US strikes.
San Francisco Chronicle
16-06-2025
- Politics
- San Francisco Chronicle
In this Israeli city hit by an Iranian missile, many people still support their military's operation
PETAH TIKVA, Israel (AP) — When an Iranian missile slammed into this central Israeli city, Miryam was huddled inside the concrete safe room in her family's apartment. Miryam was unscathed by the blast. But four people in the building next door were killed, and the explosion blew off the doors to the apartment and destroyed the kitchen and bathroom. 'This was the scariest thing I'd ever experienced,' said Miryam, who spoke to AP on condition that her last name not be used because she serves in the military. 'But the right thing is to attack Iran; I don't want them to have this power over us.' Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long identified Iran as Israel's greatest enemy, citing its hostile rhetoric and support for militant groups and accusing it of pursuing nuclear weapons — a charge Iran denies. After years of threats, Israel launched a surprise attack on Friday, killing Iranian military leaders and striking nuclear facilities in a blistering aerial assault. While no opinion polls have been released yet, the Israeli public — and even Netanyahu's rivals in the opposition – appears to be lining up behind the military operation in these early days. Such sentiment was evident in Petah Tikva, a middle-class city outside Tel Aviv where nearly a dozen residents said they support the operation, even after the deadly blast. The Iranian missiles appear to be the strongest assault on Israel's heartland since then-Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's Scud missile attacks during the first Gulf War in 1991. Residents in the area had packed suitcases, with some headed to stay with relatives and others to hotels paid for by the city. Idle teenagers sat among the wreckage staring at their ruined apartments. 'I still don't understand it,' said Eitan Tevel, 14, who spent an hour in the safe room of his sixth-floor apartment before emerging to see it damaged. Still, he said, he wants Israel to keep striking Iran. 'If we don't do it, many people will be destroyed,' he said. Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Iran. Officials say at least 224 people have been killed in Israel's air offensive and hundreds others wounded. On Monday, Israel ordered a neighborhood home to over 300,000 people in Tehran, the Iranian capital, to evacuate ahead of an expected bombing campaign. That has not halted the Iranian missile fire. So far, 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 500 injured, Israeli officials said, after Iran launched more than 370 missiles and hundreds of drones. By mid-day, first responders in Petah Tikva were still assessing the damage and clearing buildings. Four complexes housing hundreds of families were impacted by the missile, which struck the side of one of the buildings and tore off the exterior. Windows and doors were blown off, with few cars in the vicinity unscathed. Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, visited the neighborhood, calling the attack 'pure evil.' Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, said that as bad as the missile attacks have been, people had expected even worse. 'For many years we were told that when the day comes, we might have to spend days and weeks in bomb shelters and see thousands of buildings crash. That's not the case,' he said. But he warned that if there is a sense that Israel is failing to achieve its objectives, support could quickly dwindle. Older residents in this hard-hit neighborhood said the strikes reminded them of the first Gulf War over 30 years ago. Israel had limited air defenses, and people feared a chemical attack by the Iraqi leader. Many remember carrying gas masks and sealing windows with tape and plastic. People now feel protected by Israel's robust air defenses, but they also believe there's more at stake in this conflict. 'This is more scary,' said Nadav Shomron, 44, who remembers that war as a boy. 'If we have a nuclear Iran, Israel can't exist."
The Hill
16-06-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
In this Israeli city hit by an Iranian missile, many people still support their military's operation
PETAH TIKVA, Israel (AP) — When an Iranian missile slammed into this central Israeli city, Miryam was huddled inside the concrete safe room in her family's apartment. Miryam was unscathed by the blast. But four people in the building next door were killed, and the explosion blew off the doors to the apartment and destroyed the kitchen and bathroom. 'This was the scariest thing I'd ever experienced,' said Miryam, who spoke to AP on condition that her last name not be used because she serves in the military. 'But the right thing is to attack Iran; I don't want them to have this power over us.' Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long identified Iran as Israel's greatest enemy, citing its hostile rhetoric and support for militant groups and accusing it of pursuing nuclear weapons — a charge Iran denies. After years of threats, Israel launched a surprise attack on Friday, killing Iranian military leaders and striking nuclear facilities in a blistering aerial assault. While no opinion polls have been released yet, the Israeli public — and even Netanyahu's rivals in the opposition – appears to be lining up behind the military operation in these early days. Such sentiment was evident in Petah Tikva, a middle-class city outside Tel Aviv where nearly a dozen residents said they support the operation, even after the deadly blast. The Iranian missiles appear to be the strongest assault on Israel's heartland since then-Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's Scud missile attacks during the first Gulf War in 1991. Residents in the area had packed suitcases, with some headed to stay with relatives and others to hotels paid for by the city. Idle teenagers sat among the wreckage staring at their ruined apartments. 'I still don't understand it,' said Eitan Tevel, 14, who spent an hour in the safe room of his sixth-floor apartment before emerging to see it damaged. Still, he said, he wants Israel to keep striking Iran. 'If we don't do it, many people will be destroyed,' he said. Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Iran. Officials say at least 224 people have been killed in Israel's air offensive and hundreds others wounded. On Monday, Israel ordered a neighborhood home to over 300,000 people in Tehran, the Iranian capital, to evacuate ahead of an expected bombing campaign. That has not halted the Iranian missile fire. So far, 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 500 injured, Israeli officials said, after Iran launched more than 370 missiles and hundreds of drones. By mid-day, first responders in Petah Tikva were still assessing the damage and clearing buildings. Four complexes housing hundreds of families were impacted by the missile, which struck the side of one of the buildings and tore off the exterior. Windows and doors were blown off, with few cars in the vicinity unscathed. Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, visited the neighborhood, calling the attack 'pure evil.' Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, said that as bad as the missile attacks have been, people had expected even worse. 'For many years we were told that when the day comes, we might have to spend days and weeks in bomb shelters and see thousands of buildings crash. That's not the case,' he said. But he warned that if there is a sense that Israel is failing to achieve its objectives, support could quickly dwindle. Older residents in this hard-hit neighborhood said the strikes reminded them of the first Gulf War over 30 years ago. Israel had limited air defenses, and people feared a chemical attack by the Iraqi leader. Many remember carrying gas masks and sealing windows with tape and plastic. People now feel protected by Israel's robust air defenses, but they also believe there's more at stake in this conflict. 'This is more scary,' said Nadav Shomron, 44, who remembers that war as a boy. 'If we have a nuclear Iran, Israel can't exist.'
Hamilton Spectator
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Hamilton Spectator
In this Israeli city hit by an Iranian missile, many people still support their military's operation
PETAH TIKVA, Israel (AP) — When an Iranian missile slammed into this central Israeli city, Miryam was huddled inside the concrete safe room in her family's apartment. Miryam was unscathed by the blast. But four people in the building next door were killed, and the explosion blew off the doors to the apartment and destroyed the kitchen and bathroom. 'This was the scariest thing I'd ever experienced,' said Miryam, who spoke to AP on condition that her last name not be used because she serves in the military . 'But the right thing is to attack Iran ; I don't want them to have this power over us.' Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long identified Iran as Israel's greatest enemy, citing its hostile rhetoric and support for militant groups and accusing it of pursuing nuclear weapons — a charge Iran denies. After years of threats, Israel launched a surprise attack on Friday, killing Iranian military leaders and striking nuclear facilities in a blistering aerial assault. While no opinion polls have been released yet, the Israeli public — and even Netanyahu's rivals in the opposition – appears to be lining up behind the military operation in these early days. Such sentiment was evident in Petah Tikva, a middle-class city outside Tel Aviv where nearly a dozen residents said they support the operation, even after the deadly blast. The Iranian missiles appear to be the strongest assault on Israel's heartland since then-Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's Scud missile attacks during the first Gulf War in 1991. Residents in the area had packed suitcases, with some headed to stay with relatives and others to hotels paid for by the city. Idle teenagers sat among the wreckage staring at their ruined apartments. 'I still don't understand it,' said Eitan Tevel, 14, who spent an hour in the safe room of his sixth-floor apartment before emerging to see it damaged. Still, he said, he wants Israel to keep striking Iran. 'If we don't do it, many people will be destroyed,' he said. Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Iran. Officials say at least 224 people have been killed in Israel's air offensive and hundreds others wounded. On Monday, Israel ordered a neighborhood home to over 300,000 people in Tehran, the Iranian capital, to evacuate ahead of an expected bombing campaign. That has not halted the Iranian missile fire. So far, 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 500 injured, Israeli officials said, after Iran launched more than 370 missiles and hundreds of drones . By mid-day, first responders in Petah Tikva were still assessing the damage and clearing buildings. Four complexes housing hundreds of families were impacted by the missile, which struck the side of one of the buildings and tore off the exterior. Windows and doors were blown off, with few cars in the vicinity unscathed. Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, visited the neighborhood, calling the attack 'pure evil.' Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, said that as bad as the missile attacks have been, people had expected even worse. 'For many years we were told that when the day comes, we might have to spend days and weeks in bomb shelters and see thousands of buildings crash. That's not the case,' he said. But he warned that if there is a sense that Israel is failing to achieve its objectives, support could quickly dwindle. Older residents in this hard-hit neighborhood said the strikes reminded them of the first Gulf War over 30 years ago. Israel had limited air defenses, and people feared a chemical attack by the Iraqi leader. Many remember carrying gas masks and sealing windows with tape and plastic. People now feel protected by Israel's robust air defenses , but they also believe there's more at stake in this conflict. 'This is more scary,' said Nadav Shomron, 44, who remembers that war as a boy. 'If we have a nuclear Iran, Israel can't exist.' Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
