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West Australian
18-06-2025
- Politics
- West Australian
AHRON SHAPIRO: Why Israel was forced to do the world's ‘dirty work' over Iran's non compliance
Forty-four years ago, then-Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin ordered the bombing of Iraq's nearly activated Osirak nuclear reactor to prevent Saddam Hussein from realising his ambition to produce nuclear weapons. Pre-emptively destroying an aggressive enemy's nuclear weapons capabilities, as the prime minister said, to 'ensure our people's existence,' became known as the Begin Doctrine. Before last Friday's surprise attack, Israel faced an Iranian nuclear ballistic weapons program far more advanced and threatening than that of Iraq in 1981. According to Israeli intelligence, in recent weeks Iran had secretly begun working on developing all the components of a nuclear warhead and therefore had crossed the final red line and triggered the last-ditch option Israel had set for itself: to bomb Iran's nuclear sites and other affiliated targets. What we are witnessing now is a return to the Begin Doctrine with full force. The Israeli Air Force's strikes on Iran's nuclear weapons development sites were an unavoidable consequence of Iran's determined and undeterred march towards a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile, the IAF simultaneously moved to eliminate top Iranian military commanders and other strategic targets. Jerusalem had good reason to do this — these are the elements that instituted a 'ring of fire' strategy which they openly say is designed to destroy Israel. This long-standing plan culminated in the Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, subsequent attacks by Iran's other proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi and Syrian militias, before Iran itself attacked Israel with huge missile and drone barrages twice last year. Critics accuse Israel of acting recklessly or worse and not giving enough of a chance for diplomacy with the US and Europe to convince Iran to back down. In truth, Israel — and the US, which must have green-lighted the attack — had given diplomacy every opportunity to work. Over the past three decades, culminating in the most recent round of negotiations with the Trump Administration, Iran was offered many compromises, incentives and exit ramps that would have allowed them to use nuclear technology in a peaceful way and also save face. Yet the May 31 report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) described chapter and verse how obviously disinterested Iran was in any of that. The dire urgency of the situation leads to the inescapable conclusion: The time for diplomacy had finally run out. Once again, the report detailed the blatant ways Iran has been evasive, uncooperative and downright deceptive with IAEA inspectors, doggedly concealing the use of undisclosed nuclear sites going back over two decades. Moreover, the IAEA says that over the past four years it has lost its ability to adequately monitor Iran at all — that is, the IAEA admits it doesn't know how much it doesn't know about Iran's current nuclear activity. The body has determined that Iran possesses enough 60 per cent enriched uranium to produce up to 10 nuclear warheads. Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state ever to enrich uranium to this level, which has no civilian application. The body has also uncovered that Iran has worked on triggers for nuclear bombs. On June 12, the IAEA's Board of Governors finally had enough, formally declaring Iran in breach of its non-Safeguards Agreement, a crucial part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In response, Iran said it would activate a second, 'secret', enrichment site while upgrading its centrifuges at Fordow to make them enrich uranium ten times quicker. The IAEA's findings and the Board's resolution could pave the way for the issue to be referred to the UN Security Council, potentially leading to the 'snapback' of international sanctions that were lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) later this year. But was too late for sanctions to work in time. Iran's breakout time to a nuclear weapon has dwindled to nothing. Meanwhile, Israel cities are taking a pounding from Iran's indiscriminate attacks with its ballistic missiles. Given these realities, it seems hard to disagree with the comments of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz about the Israeli attack and Iranian response: 'This is the dirty work Israel is doing for all of us.' How does this affect Australia? Reports from Israel say the current operation could last another week to ten days, but US President Donald Trump has indicated that Iran could achieve a ceasefire if it was ready to accept previously proposed terms designed to neutralise its nuclear threat. The impact on the energy market may be sharp, but likely short-lived, since in order to affect actual supply, Iran would have to considerably escalate its attacks and spread them in new directions, against more regional countries. This could invite an American military response that would dwarf anything that Israel could muster. For years, Iran has played the entire world in this catastrophically dangerous game. Left with no other recourse, their bluff has finally been called. In the long run, this may be for the best, creating an opening for a brighter Middle East finally devoid of Iranian aggression and destabilisation. Ahron Shapiro is a Senior Policy Analyst at the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC).
TimesLIVE
05-05-2025
- Politics
- TimesLIVE
Papal contender Parolin is a soft-spoken, longtime Vatican diplomat
If the catholic cardinals entering the conclave to elect a successor to Pope Francis are looking for a steady administrator to run the church and bring calm after three consecutive papacies that were at times tempestuous, they may look no further than Pietro Parolin. On nearly every media shortlist of papal contenders, Parolin has been the Vatican's secretary of state for the past 12 years, effectively the number two position in the church. He is also the Vatican's top diplomat. The two roles mean Parolin — a 70-year-old from a small town in Italy's deeply catholic northern Veneto region — is perhaps the candidate best known to the 133 cardinal electors who will enter the Sistine Chapel for the start of the secret conclave on Wednesday. Cardinals who have visited Rome from around the world on church business have met him and he has visited most of their countries. Two cardinals from two African countries, for example, probably know Parolin just as well or even better than they know each other. Under Francis, who died on April 21, the number of occasions all the world's cardinals could meet together in Rome was limited. 'We have to get to know each other' has been a common refrain to reporters from otherwise tight-lipped cardinals entering and leaving pre-conclave meetings known as 'General Congregations'. Parolin is seen as a quiet diplomat who is pragmatic more than conservative or progressive. He occasionally had to quietly put out fires caused by the late pope's remarks. Francis, an Argentine who was the first pope from the Americas, gave media interviews and sometimes spoke off the cuff in public. 'He [Parolin] knows how to take a punch for the number one and for the institution,' said one cleric based abroad who has worked with him and has known him for many years, who asked not to be identified because of the secretive nature of the conclave. One such recent occasion was when the late pope suggested last year that Israel's military campaign in Gaza might amount to genocide. Parolin agreed to meet then-Israeli ambassador to the Vatican Raphael Schutz, who told him Israel wanted the pope to say more about Israel's right to defend itself. When Francis said Ukraine should have the 'courage of the white flag' to end the war there, the comment drew widespread criticism from allies of Kyiv but was hailed by Russia. Parolin quietly told diplomats the pope meant negotiations, not surrender.
Reuters
05-05-2025
- Politics
- Reuters
Papal contender Parolin is a soft-spoken, longtime Vatican diplomat
Summary Parolin known for diplomatic skills and loyalty to Pope Francis Critics oppose Parolin over 2018 China agreement Parolin's role in Vatican's financial scandal raises questions Seen as compromise between conservatives and progressives VATICAN CITY, May 5 (Reuters) - - If the Catholic cardinals entering the conclave to elect a successor to Pope Francis are looking for a steady administrator to run the Church and bring some calm after three consecutive papacies that were at times tempestuous, they may look no further than Pietro Parolin. On nearly every media shortlist of papal contenders, Parolin has been the Vatican's secretary of state for the last 12 years, effectively the number two position in the Church. He is also the Vatican's top diplomat. The two roles mean Parolin - a 70-year-old from a small town in Italy's deeply Catholic northern Veneto region - is perhaps the candidate best known to the 133 cardinal electors who will enter the Sistine Chapel for the start of the secret conclave on Wednesday. Cardinals who have visited Rome from around the world on Church business have met him and he has visited most of their countries. Two cardinals from two African countries, for example, probably know Parolin just as well or even better than they know each other. Under Francis, who died on April 21, the number of occasions all the world's cardinals could meet altogether in Rome was limited. "We have to get to know each other" has been a common refrain to reporters from otherwise tight-lipped cardinals entering and leaving pre-conclave meetings known as "General Congregations". Parolin is seen as a quiet diplomat who is pragmatic more than conservative or progressive. He occasionally had to quietly put out fires caused by the late pope's remarks. Francis, an Argentine who was the first pope from the Americas, gave media interviews and sometimes spoke off the cuff in public. "He (Parolin) knows how to take a punch for the number one and for the institution," said one cleric currently based abroad who has worked with him and has known him for many years, who asked not to be identified because of the secretive nature of the conclave. One such recent occasion was when the late pope suggested last year that Israel's military campaign in Gaza might amount to genocide. Parolin agreed to meet with then-Israeli ambassador to the Vatican, Raphael Schutz, who told him that Israel wanted the pope to say more about Israel's right to defend itself. When Francis said Ukraine should have the " courage of the white flag" to end the war there, the comment drew widespread criticism from allies of Kyiv but was hailed by Russia. Parolin quietly told diplomats that the pope meant negotiations, not surrender. CAREER FOCUSED ON DIPLOMACY Parolin entered the minor seminary when he was 14 and was ordained in 1980. He has spent nearly all of his career in Vatican diplomacy, in Rome and around the world. He has never headed a Catholic diocese, which would have given him more pastoral experience. But those who know him say this is not a deficit because in running an organization as complex as the Vatican's central administration and representing the pope around the world, he has had many contacts with many members of the faithful. "He traveled to many places and dealt with all categories of people in diverse regional, cultural and linguistic environments. He knows the universal Church," the overseas cleric said. Some conservative-leaning cardinals in the U.S. and Asia have expressed disagreement with Parolin because he is the main architect of a secret 2018 Vatican agreement with China. They call the deal, which gives Chinese authorities some say in who will serve as Catholic bishops, a sell-out to the Communist Party. Supporters say it is better than no dialogue at all between the Church and China and that even Pope Benedict, known as more conservative than Francis, favored it. Another criticism is that under Parolin's watch the Secretariat of State lost some $140 million in a botched investment in a London property. The deal led to a Vatican corruption trial in which Cardinal Angelo Becciu, who was one of Parolin's top deputies, was convicted of embezzlement and fraud. Parolin testified at the trial but was not among those accused. Becciu denies wrongdoing and is appealing the verdict. Parolin's personality is definitely not as charismatic as that of Francis, but some cardinals may see that as a plus. "Parolin is like Clark Kent without the superman part - mild-mannered, industrious, respected, but not flashy," said one person, a layman, who knows him well, referring to the famous comic book character with two personalities.
CBS News
31-01-2025
- Politics
- CBS News
American Keith Siegel among hostages set for release in next Israel-Hamas exchange under ceasefire
The group representing the families of Israeli hostages confirmed Friday the names of three more captives whom Hamas is expected to hand over on Saturday, and there's a dual U.S.-Israeli national among them. Keith Seigel, 65, originally from North Carolina, moved to Israel four decades ago and was among those seized during Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attack. Hamas had earlier provided three names and Israeli officials confirmed receipt of the list, but it was the Hostages and Missing Families Forum that confirmed the identities, saying it welcomed "the joyous news regarding the expected release of Keith Siegel," along with Israeli nationals Yarden Bibas and Ofer Calderon. Seigel's wife Aviva Seigel was also taken during the attack, which saw militants kill some 1,200 people and take 251 others hostage, but she was released under a brief November 2023 ceasefire and prisoner swap agreement between Israel and Hamas. Speaking to CBS News about a year after her release, Seigel said there were moments as Hamas militants forced her and her husband through tunnels under the Gaza Strip that they felt "sure we were going to die." Yarden Bibas, 35, is the husband of Shiri Bibas, who was taken from their kibbutz with her two young children Ariel and Kfir during the terrorist attack. Hamas claimed just weeks after the attack that Shiri and her two children were killed in an Israeli bombing in Gaza. In a TV interview about half a year later, then-Israeli government minister Benny Gantz indicated that officials knew what had happened to the Bibas family, but said it could not provide details. The fact that, under the terms of the ceasefire deal, Hamas has released women and children before male hostages, suggested the rest of Yarden Bibas' family was indeed dead. Ofer Calderon, 54, was among five members of his family seized by Hamas militants from their kibbutz near the Gaza border on Oct. 7, 2023. His two children were released during the ceasefire in November of that year, but two of his cousins were killed. Speaking to CBS Boston only two weeks ago, Calderon's cousin Jason Greenberg said he still didn't know whether Ofer was dead or alive. "It's hard to imagine anybody being able to endure that long and even come back the same person," Greenberg said. "If he comes back alive, that's a miracle." 3rd hostage-prisoner exchange completed, but not smoothly Eight hostages held by Hamas and its allies in Gaza were freed Thursday in exchange for the release of 110 Palestinian prisoners, in a third swap facilitated by the fragile ceasefire agreement that took effect on January 19. The exchange began smoothly with the handover of female Israeli soldier Agam Berger, 20. She was handed over in a relatively orderly fashion amid the ruins of the Jabalia Refugee Camp in northern Gaza. But the process devolved into chaos when large crowds surrounded Israelis Arbel Yehoud and Gadi Moses as they were transferred by militants to Red Cross personnel in southern Gaza about an hour later. The scenes angered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who delayed the release of the Palestinian prisoners for a few hours until, his office said, mediators of the ceasefire agreement offered guarantees that precautions would be taken to ensure the safety of all further hostages released under the deal. President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff ended a visit and left Israel Thursday after the three hostages were released. He spent much of the day visiting Gaza, where he went with members of the Israel Defense Forces, "to inspect the implementation [of the ceasefire], because it is so important," he told Axios. "How this happens will influence our ability to get to phase-two of the deal," Witkoff said. Americans still held in Gaza Seven American citizens, including Seigel, are among the remaining 82 hostages being held in Gaza, both dead and alive. Sagui Dekel-Chen, 35, who grew up in Bloomfield, Connecticut, and Edan Alexander, 19, from Tenafly, New Jersey, are thought to be alive, while four other Americans are thought to have been killed in captivity. Israel's 15-month, blistering military offensive in Gaza in response to Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attack has killed more than 46,000 people in the enclave, according to the Hamas-run ministry of health. Entire neighborhoods have been leveled, and virtually all of the territory's more than 2 million inhabitants have been displaced from their homes, many of them multiple times.
