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Yahoo
12-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Saturday Spread: Leveraging Applied Game Theory to Find Probabilistically Attractive Trades
With the Trump administration poised to hike tariffs on Canadian goods to 35%, the equities market ended on a down note heading into the weekend. Still, if there is a positive to the political malaise, it's that certain publicly traded enterprises are now on discount. Of course, the question is, which ones? To answer this inquiry, the financial publication industry typically likes to rehash corporate disclosures and old newspaper clippings. The problem, though, is that the market has already digested all publicly available information. Therefore, it stretches credibility to assume the existence of undiscovered opinions — especially of those involving major entities. CoreWeave Rules the Unusual Options Activity. But Should It Be in Your Portfolio? ConocoPhillips Stock Is Cheap - How to Make a 2.0% 1-Month Yield Shorting COP Puts Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! To better decipher and discover untapped trading opportunities, it may be useful to approach the market under the framework of applied game theory — essentially, a process to act when the odds favor you and step away when they do not. The above paradigm can be best explained by a thought experiment. Imagine that you flip a coin a hundred times every business day. What you flip on Monday would have no bearing on what you flip on Tuesday, precisely because coin tosses represent random events. If the market were also random, the chance of upside on any given week would land around 50%. Further, you could study the probabilities of any interval in the past. Under a random system, the observed odds across these intervals would be statistically no greater than a coin toss. But that's not what we observe. Instead, different demand structures lead to different forward responses. By converting the price action of all stocks into a unified language — market breadth or sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions — we can uncover statistically viable patterns. This way, we're letting math (not emotions) be our north star. An energy enterprise focused on natural gas processing and transportation, Williams Companies (WMB) presents a statistically intriguing case. In the past two months, WMB stock printed a 4-6-D sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with a negative trajectory across the 10-week period. While this conversion of price action into market breadth pancakes WMB's magnitude dynamism into a simple binary code, the move also eliminates the white noise in the data. Stock prices fall under the category of continuous scalar signals, effectively meaning that they're not bounded by anything. That makes share price — and trends based on it — a messy metric to analyze. By focusing on market breadth (which is a representation of demand), we can get down to the core question: was the market a net buyer or net seller of the security at hand? By converting WMB stock into market breadth sequences, we can structure its demand profile into the following table (based on rolling 10-week sequences): L10 Category Up Probability Baseline Probability Median Return if Up 2-8-D 40.00% 53.82% 0.63% 3-7-D 54.17% 53.82% 1.64% 4-6-D 61.54% 53.82% 1.91% 4-6-U 75.00% 53.82% 1.73% 5-5-D 52.78% 53.82% 1.97% 5-5-U 47.46% 53.82% 2.71% 6-4-D 83.33% 53.82% 4.64% 6-4-U 52.46% 53.82% 2.36% 7-3-U 50.00% 53.82% 1.86% 8-2-U 22.22% 53.82% 1.08% 9-1-U 33.33% 53.82% 2.43% Given that WMB is printing a 4-6-D sequence, there's a 61.54% chance that the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 1.91%. Assuming that the bulls maintain control of the market for a second week, the median expected performance is another 0.84% tacked on. That would put WMB stock a bit shy of the $60 mark. Those who are aggressive may consider the 58/60 bull call spread expiring July 25. Using data from Barchart Premier, we can identify that this transaction features a breakeven price of $58.95, giving us an adequate cushion if WMB stock doesn't quite reach $60 at expiration. One of the leading advanced biotechnology companies in the world, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) is also statistically appealing. In the past two months, REGN stock has printed a 6-4-D sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, an overall negative trajectory. It's a rare sequence, having only materialized 22 times since January 2019. Part of the rarity could come down to the negative trajectory despite the balance of accumulative sessions being greater than distributive. Notably, in 63.64% of cases when the 6-4-D sequence flashes, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 2.48%. Should the bulls maintain control of the market for the next three weeks, an additional performance boost of 2.15% may be expected. L10 Category Up Probability Baseline Probability Median Return if Up 2-8-D 50.00% 54.71% 0.57% 3-7-D 45.71% 54.71% 2.15% 4-6-D 45.95% 54.71% 3.28% 4-6-U 46.15% 54.71% 2.16% 5-5-D 56.82% 54.71% 2.77% 5-5-U 60.71% 54.71% 2.46% 6-4-D 63.64% 54.71% 2.48% 6-4-U 47.17% 54.71% 1.96% 7-3-D 80.00% 54.71% 2.48% 7-3-U 54.05% 54.71% 2.51% 8-2-U 61.54% 54.71% 2.33% 9-1-U 62.50% 54.71% 1.81% 10-0-U 66.67% 54.71% 1.50% Ordinarily, REGN stock enjoys a strong upward bias. In any given week, the chance that a long position in REGN will be profitable is 54.84%. What the 6-4-D sequence does, in effect, is to provide almost 9 percentage points of 'free' odds in favor of the bullish speculator, thus incentivizing a debit-based options strategy. Aggressive traders may consider the 575/590 bull spread expiring Aug. 15. This transaction requires a net debit of $860 with a maximum payout of 74.42%. A fleet management and safety platform provider, Samsara (IOT) is one of the leaders in applied artificial intelligence. While a powerfully relevant enterprise, IOT stock didn't get much love this past week, losing over 4% in the trailing five sessions. On a year-to-date basis, IOT dropped more than 14% of value. Still, contrarian market participants may want to give Samsara another look. In the past two months, IOT printed a 4-6-D sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, negative trajectory. For Samsara, the sequence is a relatively rare one, having materialized only 23 times since January 2019. However, it appears statistically intriguing because, in 65.22% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 6.21%. L10 Category Up Probability Baseline Probability Median Return if Up 2-8-D 50.00% 52.69% 5.32% 3-7-D 54.55% 52.69% 7.00% 4-6-D 63.64% 52.69% 6.37% 4-6-U 80.00% 52.69% 11.61% 5-5-D 61.54% 52.69% 6.37% 5-5-U 60.00% 52.69% 4.27% 6-4-D 45.45% 52.69% 7.11% 6-4-U 42.86% 52.69% 5.19% 7-3-U 57.89% 52.69% 6.08% 8-2-U 25.00% 52.69% 19.07% Should the bulls maintain control for a second week, the implied median performance boost is an additional 3.75%. On Friday, IOT stock closed at $37.39, meaning that it could be on pace to exceed the $41 level. Given the above market intelligence, aggressive traders may consider the 39/41 bull call spread expiring Aug. 15. This transaction requires a net debit of $90, with a maximum payout of over 122%. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Technologies launches Pre-Trade Portfolio Risk functionality for TT® platform
New offering replicates clearing house methodologies to mitigate risk, facilitate more trading opportunities CHICAGO and LONDON, June 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Trading Technologies International, Inc. (TT), a global capital markets technology platform services provider, has launched Pre-Trade Portfolio Risk on the TT platform, bringing new protections to sell-side clients and facilitating increased trading opportunities for end-users. TT announced the new offering leading into the FIA IDX conference today in London. With this functionality, firms can now manage risk more effectively by capturing a client's worst-case margin position at a given time and use the value to determine whether there is sufficient buying power before an order is sent to the market. The new offering uniquely applies the same calculations employed by clearing houses, giving FCMs the ability to more comprehensively manage client exposure. Alun Green, EVP Managing Director, Futures & Options for TT, said: "This is a significant step forward in managing risk that will allow a wider range of users to benefit from the award-winning trading features available on the TT platform. Users will easily be able to see how much margin has been consumed by their existing portfolio and how much buying power remains for trading." Pre-Trade Portfolio Risk supports a variety of exchange risk protocols, including SPAN, PRISMA, value-at-risk (VAR) and other custom models, across more than 20 major derivatives exchanges. It directly leverages risk parameter files supplied by the exchange to reflect the most up-to-date values and can be managed at any account level in the TT platform. The TT platform, which handled more than 2.8 billion derivatives transactions alone in 2024, is the most widely used platform globally for futures and options on futures, in addition to its growing use across multiple asset classes. The platform has earned numerous recognitions in 2025 for its high-performance technology and functionality, including Derivatives Trading System of the Year in this month's Markets Media 2025 Global Markets Choice Awards. About Trading Technologies Trading Technologies ( is a global capital markets platform services company providing market-leading technology for the end-to-end trading operations of Tier 1 banks, brokerages, money managers, hedge funds, proprietary traders, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), commercial hedgers and risk managers. With its roots in listed derivatives, the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) company delivers "multi-X" solutions, with "X" representing asset classes, functions, workflows and geographies. This multi-X approach features trade execution services across futures and options, fixed income, foreign exchange (FX) and cryptocurrencies augmented by solutions for data and analytics, including transaction cost analysis (TCA); quantitative trading; compliance and trade surveillance; clearing and post-trade allocation; and infrastructure services. The award-winning TT platform ecosystem also helps exchanges deliver innovative solutions to their market participants, and technology companies to distribute their complementary offerings to Trading Technologies' clients. View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE Trading Technologies Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Technologies launches Pre-Trade Portfolio Risk functionality for TT® platform
New offering replicates clearing house methodologies to mitigate risk, facilitate more trading opportunities CHICAGO and LONDON, June 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Trading Technologies International, Inc. (TT), a global capital markets technology platform services provider, has launched Pre-Trade Portfolio Risk on the TT platform, bringing new protections to sell-side clients and facilitating increased trading opportunities for end-users. TT announced the new offering leading into the FIA IDX conference today in London. With this functionality, firms can now manage risk more effectively by capturing a client's worst-case margin position at a given time and use the value to determine whether there is sufficient buying power before an order is sent to the market. The new offering uniquely applies the same calculations employed by clearing houses, giving FCMs the ability to more comprehensively manage client exposure. Alun Green, EVP Managing Director, Futures & Options for TT, said: "This is a significant step forward in managing risk that will allow a wider range of users to benefit from the award-winning trading features available on the TT platform. Users will easily be able to see how much margin has been consumed by their existing portfolio and how much buying power remains for trading." Pre-Trade Portfolio Risk supports a variety of exchange risk protocols, including SPAN, PRISMA, value-at-risk (VAR) and other custom models, across more than 20 major derivatives exchanges. It directly leverages risk parameter files supplied by the exchange to reflect the most up-to-date values and can be managed at any account level in the TT platform. The TT platform, which handled more than 2.8 billion derivatives transactions alone in 2024, is the most widely used platform globally for futures and options on futures, in addition to its growing use across multiple asset classes. The platform has earned numerous recognitions in 2025 for its high-performance technology and functionality, including Derivatives Trading System of the Year in this month's Markets Media 2025 Global Markets Choice Awards. About Trading Technologies Trading Technologies ( is a global capital markets platform services company providing market-leading technology for the end-to-end trading operations of Tier 1 banks, brokerages, money managers, hedge funds, proprietary traders, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), commercial hedgers and risk managers. With its roots in listed derivatives, the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) company delivers "multi-X" solutions, with "X" representing asset classes, functions, workflows and geographies. This multi-X approach features trade execution services across futures and options, fixed income, foreign exchange (FX) and cryptocurrencies augmented by solutions for data and analytics, including transaction cost analysis (TCA); quantitative trading; compliance and trade surveillance; clearing and post-trade allocation; and infrastructure services. The award-winning TT platform ecosystem also helps exchanges deliver innovative solutions to their market participants, and technology companies to distribute their complementary offerings to Trading Technologies' clients. View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE Trading Technologies Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Zawya
02-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
June 2025 Market Outlook: Essential Economic and Geopolitical Events for Traders by Octa Broker
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 2 June 2025 - June 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most eventful months of the year for global markets. For traders, this means opportunity—but also volatility. The economic calendar is packed with macroeconomic data releases and central bank meetings, while geopolitical risks remain close to the surface. Beyond the usual inflation prints and interest rate decisions, markets will also have to digest key developments around global diplomacy: the NATO and G7 summits, peace negotiations in Eastern Europe, U.S. trade talks with China and the European Union, as well as debates around nuclear policy in the Middle East. Add to this the lingering fiscal tensions in Washington, and it's clear that June won't be business as usual. Octa Broker explains why the economic calendar is worth monitoring and what events to watch out for in June 2025. The Role of the Economic Calendar for Traders For traders, the economic calendar is more than a schedule—it's a risk map. It flags: central bank rate decisions inflation and employment reports Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates and growth outlooks high-level summits with potential for market-moving headlines. These events affect not just macro sentiment but also short-term liquidity and intraday volatility. And when several collide—as they will in June—market reactions tend to be sharper, faster, and harder to fade. Anticipating such events in advance allows traders to capitalise on potential opportunities and adjust risk management—some even avoid trading during volatility. Key Economic Events in June 2025 Here are some major events to follow in June: June 4: Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision June 5: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision June 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls June 11: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) June 15–17: Group-7 (G7) Summit June 17: Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision June 18: Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision—includes Economic Projections and the Dot Plot June 19: Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision June 19: Bank of England (BoE) rate decision June 20: People's Bank of China (PBoC) rate decision June 24–25: North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Summit June 26–27: European Council Summit June 27: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index June 30: German CPI Potential Impact of June Economic and Geopolitical Events For Traders Heightened Volatility Expected June is shaping up to be an eventful month for currencies and rate-sensitive assets, with seven major central bank meetings scheduled—the BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Fed, SNB, and PBoC. Traders can anticipate heightened volatility not only in the major USD-based pairs but also in equity indices, individual stocks, and commodities. June's Federal Reserve meeting is particularly important, accompanied by updated Economic Projections and the Dot Plot—forward-looking instruments via which markets infer future rate trajectories. Surprises can unleash dramatic repricing in Treasury yields, gold, and risk assets. Macroeconomic Divergence as a Market Drive r Inflation paths remain divergent. In the U.S., core CPI slowed to 2.3% YoY, potentially softening the Fed's stance. Meanwhile, ECB officials appear divided: Klaas Knot said inflation risks remain uncertain, while Pierre Wunsch hinted that rates could fall below 2%. This split supports tactical positioning in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, particularly around central bank commentary. Geopolitical Events Could Disrupt Risk Sentimen t June's summits aren't ceremonial. The G7 Summit will cover trade security and energy cooperation, while the NATO meeting will focus on defence spending and alliance posture. Any hawkish statements or surprises around Ukraine, China, or the Middle East could move commodity markets—particularly, oil and gold—and affect defence-sector equities. Bond Market Tensions Could Spill Into FX and Equities Rising Treasury yields, recently breaching 5.0% on 20-year note, are fueling concern over U.S. fiscal policy. As Moody's warned, the sustainability of U.S. debt is becoming a market risk. Traders should watch for safe-haven rotation into gold, Bitcoin, Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY). Japan, however, is facing debt troubles of its own, as yields on 30-year bonds recently climbed to multi-decade highs, prompting calls to BoJ to either increase bond buying or halt its plans to gradually reduce such purchases. Either way, traders should keep a close eye on both the U.S. and the Japanese bond markets. Ongoing Trade Negotiations Remain a Wildcard The May U.S.-China joint statement hinted at easing tensions—but markets remain sceptical. There are still several critical obstacles to a comprehensive trade agreement between the parties. For example, on May 12th, China's Ministry of Commerce strengthened control over strategic mineral exports, on which the U.S. is highly dependent. Other critical sticking points include technology transfer issues and Artificial Intelligence (AI), as China's growing semiconductor self-sufficiency efforts are not particularly favoured in Washington. Furthermore, there is still uncertainty as to whether any meaningful progress in trade talks between the U.S. and EU can be achieved in June. Although the parties agreed to fast-track the negotiations, some business leaders are sceptical. June won't be a month for passive positioning. With central banks sending mixed signals, inflation data diverging, and global diplomacy back on the front pages, traders will have to juggle more than just charts. This is the kind of environment where preparation matters more than prediction. Knowing when the Fed drops its Dot Plot is as important as watching where oil prices go after a NATO statement. With overlapping narratives and rising volatility, it's not about calling the top or bottom—it's about managing risk around known catalysts and staying nimble when the unknowns hit. Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them. Hashtag: #octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively. Octa
