Latest news with #unpredictability
BBC News
2 days ago
- Politics
- BBC News
How Trump is using the 'Madman Theory' to try to change the world
Asked last month whether he was planning to join Israel in attacking Iran, US President Donald Trump said "I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I'm going to do".He let the world believe he had agreed a two-week pause to allow Iran to resume negotiations. And then he bombed anyway.A pattern is emerging: The most predictable thing about Trump is his unpredictability. He changes his mind. He contradicts himself. He is inconsistent."[Trump] has put together a highly centralised policy-making operation, arguably the most centralised, at least in the area of foreign policy, since Richard Nixon," says Peter Trubowitz, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. "And that makes policy decisions more dependent on Trump's character, his preferences, his temperament." Trump has put this to political use; he has made his own unpredictability a key strategic and political asset. He has elevated unpredictability to the status of a doctrine. And now the personality trait he brought to the White House is driving foreign and security policy. It is changing the shape of the scientists call this the Madman Theory, in which a world leader seeks to persuade his adversary that he is temperamentally capable of anything, to extract concessions. Used successfully it can be a form of coercion and Trump believes it is paying dividends, getting the US's allies where he wants them. But is it an approach that can work against enemies? And could its flaw be that rather than being a sleight of hand designed to fool adversaries, it is in fact based on well established and clearly documented character traits, with the effect that his behaviour becomes easier to predict? Attacks, insults and embraces Trump began his second presidency by embracing Russian President Vladimir Putin and attacking America's allies. He insulted Canada by saying it should become the 51st state of the US. He said he was prepared to consider using military force to annex Greenland, an autonomous territory of America's ally Denmark. And he said the US should retake ownership and control of the Panama 5 of the Nato charter commits each member to come to the defence of all others. Trump threw America's commitment to that into doubt. "I think Article 5 is on life support" declared Ben Wallace, Britain's former defence secretary. Conservative Attorney General Dominic Grieve said: "For now the trans-Atlantic alliance is over."A series of leaked text messages revealed the culture of contempt in Trump's White House for European allies. "I fully share your loathing of European freeloaders," US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth told his colleagues, adding "PATHETIC". In Munich earlier this year, Trump's Vice-President JD Vance said the US would no longer be the guarantor of European appeared to turn the page on 80 years of trans-Atlantic solidarity. "What Trump has done is raise serious doubts and questions about the credibility of America's international commitments," says Prof Trubowitz."Whatever understanding those countries [in Europe] have with the United States, on security, on economic or other matters, they're now subject to negotiation at a moment's notice."My sense is that most people in Trump's orbit think that unpredictability is a good thing, because it allows Donald Trump to leverage America's clout for maximum gain… "This is one of of his takeaways from negotiating in the world of real estate."Trump's approach paid dividends. Only four months ago, Sir Keir Starmer told the House of Commons that Britain would increase defence and security spending from 2.3% of GDP to 2.5%. Last month, at a Nato summit, that had increased to 5%, a huge increase, now matched by every other member of the Alliance. The predictability of unpredictability Trump is not the first American president to deploy an Unpredictability Doctrine. In 1968, when US President Richard Nixon was trying to end the war in Vietnam, he found the North Vietnamese enemy intractable."At one point Nixon said to his National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, 'you ought to tell the North Vietnamese negotiators that Nixon's crazy and you don't know what he's going to do, so you better come to an agreement before things get really crazy'," says Michael Desch, professor of international relations at Notre Dame University. "That's the madman theory." Julie Norman, professor of politics at University College London, agrees that there is now an Unpredictability Doctrine. "It's very hard to know what's coming from day to day," she argues. "And that has always been Trump's approach."Trump successfully harnessed his reputation for volatility to change the trans-Atlantic defence relationship. And apparently to keep Trump on side, some European leaders have flattered and fawned. Last month's Nato summit in The Hague was an exercise in obsequious courtship. Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte had earlier sent President Trump (or "Dear Donald") a text message, which Trump leaked. "Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran, it was truly extraordinary," he wrote. On the forthcoming announcement that all Nato members had agreed to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, he continued: "You will achieve something NO president in decades could get done." Anthony Scaramucci, who previously served as Trump's communications director in his first term, said: "Mr Rutte, he's trying to embarrass you, sir. He's literally sitting on Air Force One laughing at you."And this may prove to be the weakness at the heart of Trump's Unpredictability Doctrine: their actions may be based on the idea that Trump craves adulation. Or that he seeks short-term wins, favouring them over long and complicated that is the case and their assumption is correct, then it limits Trump's ability to perform sleights of hand to fool adversaries - rather, he has well established and clearly documented character traits that they have become aware of. The adversaries impervious to charm and threats Then there is the question of whether an Unpredictability Doctrine or the Madman Theory can work on President Volodymyr Zelensky, an ally who was given a dressing down by Trump and Vance in the Oval Office, later agreed to grant the US lucrative rights to exploit Ukrainian mineral resources. Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, apparently remains impervious to Trump's charms and threats alike. On Thursday, following a telephone call, Trump said he was "disappointed" that Putin was not ready to end the war against Ukraine. And Iran? Trump promised his base that he would end American involvement in Middle Eastern "forever wars". His decision to strike Iran's nuclear facilities was perhaps the most unpredictable policy choice of his second term so far. The question is whether it will have the desired former British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, has argued that it will do precisely the opposite: it will make Iran more, not less likely, to seek to acquire nuclear Desch agrees. "I think it's now highly likely that Iran will make the decision to pursue a nuclear weapon," he says. "So I wouldn't be surprised if they lie low and do everything they can to complete the full fuel cycle and conduct a [nuclear] test."I think the lesson of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi is not lost on other dictators facing the US and potential regime change... "So the Iranians will desperately feel the need for the ultimate deterrent and they'll look at Saddam and Gaddafi as the negative examples and Kim Jong Un of North Korea as the positive example." One of the likely scenarios is the consolidation of the Islamic Republic, according to Mohsen Milani, a professor of politics at the University of South Florida and author of Iran's Rise and Rivalry with the US in the Middle East. "In 1980, when Saddam Hussein attacked Iran his aim was the collapse of the Islamic Republic," he says. "The exact opposite happened. "That was the Israeli and American calculation too... That if we get rid of the top guys, Iran is going to surrender quickly or the whole system is going to collapse." A loss of trust in negotiations? Looking ahead, unpredictability may not work on foes, but it is unclear whether the recent shifts it has yielded among allies can be possible, this is a process built largely on impulse. And there may be a worry that the US could be seen as an unreliable broker."People won't want to do business with the US if they don't trust the US in negotiations, if they're not sure the US will stand by them in defence and security issues," argues Prof Norman. "So the isolation that many in the MAGA world seek is, I think, going to backfire."German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for one has said Europe now needs to become operationally independent of the US."The importance of the chancellor's comment is that it's a recognition that US strategic priorities are changing," says Prof Trubowitz. "They're not going to snap back to the way they were before Trump took office. "So yes, Europe is going to have to get more operationally independent." This would require European nations to develop a much bigger European defence industry, to acquire kit and capabilities that currently only the US has, argues Prof Desch. For example, the Europeans have some sophisticated global intelligence capability, he says, but a lot of it is provided by the US."Europe, if it had to go it alone, would also require a significant increase in its independent armaments production capability," he continues. "Manpower would also be an issue. Western Europe would have to look to Poland to see the level of manpower they would need."All of which will take years to build up. So, have the Europeans really been spooked by Trump's unpredictability, into making the most dramatic change to the security architecture of the western world since the end of the Cold War?"It has contributed," says Prof Trubowitz. "But more fundamentally, Trump has uncorked something… Politics in the United States has changed. Priorities have changed. To the MAGA coalition, China is a bigger problem than Russia. That's maybe not true for the Europeans."And according to Prof Milani, Trump is trying to consolidate American power in the global order."It's very unlikely that he's going to change the order that was established after World War Two. He wants to consolidate America's position in that order because China is challenging America's position in that order."But this all means that the defence and security imperatives faced by the US and Europe are European allies may be satisfied that through flattery and real policy shifts, they have kept Trump broadly onside; he did, after all, reaffirm his commitment to Article 5 at the most recent Nato summit. But the unpredictability means this cannot be guaranteed - and they have seemed to accept that they can no longer complacently rely on the US to honour its historic commitment to their in that sense, even if the unpredictability doctrine comes from a combination of conscious choice and Trump's very real character traits, it is working, on some at image credit: Getty Images BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.
The Guardian
25-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Trump is angry with a world that won't give him easy deals
It was as close as Donald Trump might get to a lucid statement of his governing doctrine. 'I may do it. I may not do it,' the president said to reporters on the White House lawn. 'Nobody knows what I'm going to do.' The question was about joining Israeli air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. Days later, US bombers were on their way. Some expected it to happen. Others, including Keir Starmer, had gone on record to say they didn't. No one had known. The unpredictability doctrine wouldn't have been violated either way. It applies also in economic and domestic policy. Trump's boast of inscrutability could have been made about tariff rates, or a decision to deploy marines against US citizens who defy his immigration agency. Volatile inconsistency is a trait of the presidential personality, but also a learned management technique. Keeping everyone around you guessing, lurching from charm to menaces, swapping and dropping favourites on a whim – these are methods of coercive control. They generate disorientation and vulnerability. People who are braced for sudden mood swings must hang on the leader's every word, looking for cues, awaiting instruction. Individual agency is lost, dependency is induced. It is something cult leaders do. A method that works with a quasi-monarchical entourage is poorly suited to international affairs. Foreign leaders are not White House courtiers. They might seek the US president's favour in trade or fear his military wrath, but always with competing national interests in the background. On the world stage, Trump will never feel the unalloyed devotion he gets from worshippers at a Maga rally, which is one reason why he hates to travel. That tension is palpable at this week's Nato summit in The Hague. Trump makes no secret of his disdain for European democracies. He resents their reliance on the Pentagon for security. He is unconvinced that defending their continent, especially the corner of it under violent assault from Russia, is the US's problem. The threat he briefly made in his first term to pull out of Nato if other members didn't start paying their way still hangs over the alliance. European leaders must strive to keep Trump onside while contingency planning for the day he decides to abandon them. Matthew Whitaker, the US's permanent representative at Nato, tried to be reassuring on that point at the summit, declaring that it 'has never been more engaged'. But he also conceded ignorance of what Trump might actually do. 'I don't want … to claim to be able to read his mind and know what he's going to say.' That is the doctrine: nobody knows. This forces Nato members into an awkward dance, performing for Trump's benefit while also working around him. They want to impress him with their financial ambition, pledging to spend 5% of their national GDP on defence by 2035. But they know also not to expect any reciprocal commitment, or none that can be trusted. War in the Middle East ramps the uncertainty up to new heights. European leaders need to stay focused on Ukraine and the prospect of Russia turning its territorial aggression on some other portion of Nato's eastern flank. Vladimir Putin sees no legitimacy in borders that were drawn by the collapse of the Soviet Union. He has also geared Russia's economy, political apparatus and propaganda machinery to assume perpetual war with the west. One lesson from Ukraine's plight is to assume that when Putin says he is going to fight, he means it. Another is that, while deterrence is expensive, it is cheaper than the war that comes when the Kremlin feels confidently undeterred. These calculations keep Europeans up at night, but not Trump. He doesn't recognise Russia as the aggressor in Ukraine and would happily see the war end on terms that leave Nato humiliated and Putin emboldened, and signal an epoch-defining shift in the balance of global power away from democracy. But framing the choice in grand geostrategic terms obscures pettier motives, which are often the salient ones with Trump. He doesn't want to take Kyiv's side because that is what Joe Biden did. It isn't his cause and so he thinks it is dumb. This is not the case with Iran. US allies are required, in public at least, to judge Trump's military intervention as though it were made according to a conventional diplomatic and strategic calculus: the prospect of Tehran wielding powers of nuclear apocalypse is truly abhorrent; negotiation was not bearing fruit. Maybe there was reason to dispute US intelligence assessments that said the threshold of weapons-readiness was not imminent. Maybe the time to act really was at hand. But those are rationalising arguments, retrofitted to a choice that Trump made as much from vanity as any more sophisticated motive. He was bounced into war by Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister appears to have gamed the US president's aversion to looking weak and his limitless appetite for glory. Early Israeli success – an extraordinary feat of military intelligence that took out senior Iranian commanders and assets – offered Trump the prospect of climbing aboard a winning operation and grabbing credit for victory. Hints that regime change was on the agenda may have prodded Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, towards a ceasefire on the basis that early capitulation with some power retained, while unpalatable, is preferable to assassination. Senior White House officials insisted the war aims were limited to containment of the nuclear threat, but since they hadn't even known a war was coming their authority on the matter is questionable. Trump's supporters say this is proof that his volatile style works. In strategic studies it is known as the 'madman theory'. Discarding guardrails, looking ready to do something irrational, forces an enemy to choose caution. The obvious risk is that it also teaches the rest of the world the merit of madness. Iran's rulers will be more convinced than ever that only nuclear weapons can guarantee their sovereignty. (That view would persist through regime change, since none of the viable scenarios result in a flowering of pro-western democracy in the region. Tehran's atomic ambitions may be set back by years, but the cause of negotiated, multilateral non-proliferation is also in tatters.) That doesn't interest Trump. He thinks in terms of easy wins, not complex consequences. Hence his palpable irritation with Israel and Iran for violating the ceasefire and generally not knowing 'what the fuck they're doing'. He is aware that he looks played by Netanyahu, much as he once showed a flicker of frustration with Putin for 'tapping' him along in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. He promised US voters deals. He gets cross when the world withholds them from him. This is a natural function of the unpredictability doctrine. Telling other countries they can never know what you'll do makes them less responsive to diplomacy; less biddable to the whim of a US president. A vicious cycle then begins. Trump relies on his volatile persona to assert control in situations that he doesn't understand, generating chaos that exposes his impotence, which in turn provokes him to tug in more arbitrary fury at his levers of power. For European democracies this is debilitating. It is hard to coordinate defence against external threats when the paramount power in your alliance is the origin of so much instability. But Nato leaders will get no respite from the uncertainty as long as Trump sits in the White House. The thing they most need from him – reliability – is the one thing he is destined by personality and doctrine never to provide. Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist
Forbes
20-06-2025
- Forbes
Unpredictability As A Feature: Lessons From Cybersecurity For Retail
Guy Yehiav, a recognized industry thought leader, is the president of SmartSense, IoT solutions for the enterprise. getty Across industries—from aviation to cybersecurity—unpredictability can be a powerful defense. Irregular schedules, varied methods and shifting locations disrupt the ability of bad actors to exploit standard operating procedures. This principle is gaining traction in the retail and logistics sectors, where organized theft and freight crime thrive on predictable patterns and weak oversight. Introducing irregular frequencies, varying patterns and differing locations increases uncertainty for bad actors. Advances in stealthy track-and-trace procedures can also improve deterrence. Consider how unpredictability is applied in cybersecurity, where patterns and anomalies are the defining elements that distinguish the ordinary from the suspicious. It's not just about behavior being different; it's about being consistent. When a behavior deviates predictably but consistently, it still falls within the norm. A network of 1,000 users may interact with a system in various ways, but as long as those interactions are stable and predictable—even if unique—there's nothing inherently concerning. However, when a user's activity shifts suddenly or unpredictably—when it steps outside the bounds of consistent, average behavior—that's when alerts should go off. This principle drives cybersecurity anomaly detection systems. Stability signals safety, and true unpredictability triggers concern. Imagine this scenario in a login system. If you log in consistently from your phone while at home or from the office on specific days, the system recognizes that as your 'regular exception.' But, if at 11 p.m. on a Saturday you suddenly attempt to log in from downtown New York City, that's an anomaly, and security protocols should prompt multiple verifications. Uncovering Anomalies To Mitigate Freight Theft Understanding 'normal' versus 'anomalous' behavior should be extended into the fight against freight theft and organized retail crime (ORC), which thrive on gaps in oversight. By being unpredictable, businesses can create smarter, more proactive solutions to detect, deter and respond to increasingly sophisticated criminal activities. Retailers need to consider, for example, the routes and geolocations within their supply chain networks. Much like city navigation, supply chains should account for planned detours, such as those due to roadwork, weather or traffic alerts. These are acceptable anomalies—the system 'knows' or 'expects" them based on traffic application feedback in real time. Now let's add in the unexpected. If a delivery route suddenly deviates to an unplanned location—a suspicious 'pit stop' known to be associated with ORC activities—that anomaly should trigger an alert. How? One way to do this is to leverage real-time location services on cargo pallets, cases or packages, but the key is not just tracking movement but understanding when something abnormal is occurring. Overcoming Criminal Evasion Tactics ORC and other bad actors are becoming smarter. They use detection tools—sometimes specialized devices akin to Geiger counters—to scan for active GPS signals. To combat this, retailers must deploy solutions that embrace unpredictability as a feature, not a flaw. Sensing capabilities and tracking systems should also be designed with the capability to operate in stealth mode. Keeping a signal silent and undetectable while cargo is stationary and activating only when movement occurs serves two purposes: 1. It extends battery life and conserves power, ensuring devices remain operational for longer durations. 2. It reduces detectable signals, making the devices less vulnerable to bad actors attempting to engage in freight theft. Building Partnerships For Deterrence When aggregated, these solutions can provide businesses with accurate, time-stamped data to pass on to law enforcement agencies like the FBI. Real-time anomaly detection and irrefutable evidence form the backbone of successful raids, arrests and prosecutions against ORC networks. The next frontier in combating freight theft involves collaboration between technology providers, specialized ORC deterrence companies and local police and the FBI. These organizations focus on tracking known offenders and building actionable intelligence to target criminal operations. Deterrence specialists aggregate data on known actors—individuals or networks—and their patterns of behavior. By combining this intelligence with route tracking, businesses can triangulate threats, identify anomalies and trigger interventions in real time. Detection, intervention and deterrence all play integral roles in combatting freight theft and other ORC strategies. Retailers must send a strong, unwavering message: Theft will not be tolerated. Through the integration of unpredictability, real-time visibility, stealth capabilities and partnerships with deterrence experts, retailers have a path forward to not only mitigate the financial impact of ORC but to dismantle its operational foundations. Forbes Technology Council is an invitation-only community for world-class CIOs, CTOs and technology executives. Do I qualify?
News.com.au
20-05-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
‘Unpredictable': Range of potential market scenarios is ‘quite wide'
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock says future financial markets are 'unpredictable' and the range of possible outcomes is 'quite wide'. 'We are on the alert for that – and we're paid to worry about that sort of thing,' Ms Bullock said. 'You rightly point out that the financial markets have recovered. I would say that we are still not sure that the financial markets will remain nice and steady. 'The key point about the situation we're in is it's not just uncertain, it's actually unpredictable … the range of outcomes here could be quite wide.'
