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Wall Street Journal
5 days ago
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
Japan's Election Shows Voters Have Finally Had Enough
In retrospect, the only really surprising thing about last weekend's election in Japan is that it took so long for something like this to happen. The 'this' is the toppling of the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, from its majority in parliament's upper house in favor of, well, no one. The election's biggest winners were protest parties of the right, which increased their vote shares enough to deprive anyone else of a working majority. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of the LDP already was trapped in a minority government in the lower house; his headaches now assume migraine-ish proportions.
BBC News
21-07-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
Sanseito: How a far-right 'Japanese First' party gained new ground
For three years, a once fringe opposition party held just one seat in Japan's 248-seat upper house. But on Sunday, Sanseito emerged as one of the biggest winners of Japan's election - walking away with 14 seats. The party was born in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic, where it gained prominence with YouTube videos that spread conspiracy theories about recently, it has built its platform on a nationalist "Japanese First" agenda, which has warned against a "silent invasion of foreigners". Sanseito's rise in popularity reflects growing unease over immigration and overtourism - issues the ruling government also sought to address with a new committee it created days before the do these gains signal an enduring shift to the right in Japan? What is the 'Japanese First' policy? Launching in early 2020, Sanseito gained attention among conservatives with its series of YouTube videos centred on anti-vaccine and anti-masking rhetoric. It won its first seat in the upper house in 2022, following a campaign in which it fashioned itself as an "anti-globalist" party. Supporters at rallies spoke of a world where a cabal of globalists and financial institutions were conspiring to lord over powerless citizens. In its recent campaign, the party made populist pledges such as consumption tax cuts and an increase in child benefits. But it's been most well known for its nationalist "Japanese First" platform rallying against immigrants, with its leader Sohei Kamiya previously saying that he had drawn inspiration from US President Donald Trump's "bold political style". Sanseito's promises have won it the support of young conservatives online - cutting into the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) conservative support weekend's election result also underscores voters' frustration with the LDP's leader and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has struggled to inspire confidence as Japan struggles against economic headwinds, a cost-of-living crisis and trade negotiations with the United Hall, a lecturer in Japanese Studies at Kanda University of International Studies, says support for more right-wing parties had drawn conservative voters away from the LDP."Prime Minister Ishiba is considered not conservative enough by many supporters of the former Prime Minister [Shinzo] Abe," he says."They think that he just doesn't have the nationalistic views on history, he doesn't have the strong views against China that Abe had."Mr Hall adds that the party's win means "for the next six years, [Sanseito] are going to feel a lot less restrained and a lot freer... [to express its] conspiracy theories, anti-foreign statements, very strong revisionist views about history".But despite its gains this election, Sanseito still falls short of the minimum number of seats required to submit budget bills in the upper house. And in the more powerful lower house, it holds just three seats. Who is Sohei Kamiya? Kamiya, 47, was at one point of his political career a member of the long-ruling LDP. During the 2012 general election, the party's then-president Shinzo Abe personally campaigned on his behalf - though he eventually lost the race. Kamiya launched Sanseito in March 2020, and was the party's only candidate to be elected into the upper chamber in former Self-Defence Force reservist has openly credited Trump for shaping his approach, and has railed against the political and financial elite. "Under globalism, multinational companies have changed Japan's policies for their own purposes," he said at a recent rally in Kagoshima. "If we fail to resist this foreign pressure, Japan will become a colony!"Earlier this year, he faced backlash after calling gender equality policies a mistake, saying they would encourage women to work and prevent them from having more children. When asked about the party's appeal to men, he said it might be due to him being "hot-blooded", claiming "that resonates more with men". Following Sunday's election, Kamiya vowed to secure "50 to 60 seats" in future elections so that "[the party's] policies will finally become reality".He also appeared to try to walk back some of his earlier statements, clarifying in an interview with Nippon TV after the vote that his nationalist policy was not meant to "completely ban foreigners". Why is there so much anger over immigration? The number of foreign residents in Japan hit a record 3.8 million at the end of 2024. That figure marks an increase up 10.5% from the previous year, according to immigration authorities - but still makes up just 3% of the country's total numbers also hit an all-time high of about 36.9 million last year, according to the National Tourism has seized on the growing unease over immigration, blaming the ruling LDP for policies that have allowed more foreigners into the rhetoric often surfaces in countries dealing with a weakening economy, says Mr Hall. "Misbehaviour and bad manners by some tourists" have added fuel to the fire, creating an impression of a "big foreign problem", he adds."[Sanseito] tapped into the frustration over immigration and the perhaps unwarranted feeling that immigrants were rising too much in number," he has traditionally been wary of immigration - but faced with an ageing population, the government had eased immigration laws in recent years in an effort to boost manpower. Some Japanese people have been frustrated by the influx of foreigners and have blamed them for rising crime and inflation, among other Tuesday - less than a week before the election - authorities set up a new committee aimed at easing citizens' concerns, pledging to shape a "society of orderly and harmonious coexistence with foreign nationals."But it now appears to have come too late - and Sanseito's ascent may signal a turning point in Japan's political landscape."I think for years now, people said Japan doesn't have a populist right, or doesn't have a populist far right," says Mr Hall. "But I think [the result] has proven that there is a possibility for this to happen in Japan, and it's probably here to stay."
Reuters
21-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Investors on Japan's upper house election outcome
SINGAPORE, July 21 (Reuters) - Japan's ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in an election on Sunday, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power even as he vowed to remain party leader, citing a looming tariff deadline with the United States. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday on Monday, but the yen strengthened while Nikkei futures rose slightly, as the election results appeared to be already priced in. While the ballot does not directly determine whether Ishiba's administration will fall, it heaps pressure on the embattled leader and could imply either policy paralysis or a bigger fiscal deficit depending on what the ruling party does next and how strong the opposition becomes. QUOTES: "It was not the 'major defeat' that some had predicted, and the LDP showed a certain level of centripetal force. Second, Prime Minister Ishiba quickly declared his continuation in office last night. "The election results have avoided the sharp yen depreciation pressure anticipated last weekend, but Japan's political situation is likely to continue exerting downward pressure on the yen." "Most people would've thought there might be a knee-jerk negative yen reaction, but we have seen a reasonable degree of yen underperformance in the lead up to Sunday, so to some extent, I think there's a kind of 'we bought the rumour, sold the fact'. "Our sense is that the yen strength that we've seen is probably something that will fade over time... the big thing this week is more Japan's chief trade negotiator trying to get a deal over the line, that is something other than the 25%, and to the extent that the election result weakens Japan's negotiating position - because you haven't got a coherent, united government, at the margin, I think that militates against the likelihood of anything happening that gets us back to anywhere close to a sort of 10% baseline tariff come August 1." "USD/JPY has fallen after its re-opening this morning with the outcome of the weekend's Japanese upper house elections largely as expected. However, it can likely hold on to power by seeking coalitions or by negotiation on key legislation with minor parties to avoid collapse. "With the worst case scenario avoided, the 200-day moving average at 149.62 looks secure for now and should see USD/JPY ease lower back towards 146.00." RONG REN GOH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS, SINGAPORE: "The risk of coalition loss is well appreciated, and arguably priced in - weaker yen, higher yields. We probably focus attention towards how the fiscally dovish parties do, to see whether the trade has more legs. "Now we have got to see who won the seats from them and the two parties markets probably will be focused on are the DPP and Sanseito. "But there are other drivers coming on the horizon for the yen, for example, the trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan with the August deadline. "I think the difficulty comes from the rest of the parties forming another coalition but I'm admittedly not a political expert here and I don't know how easy it will be for the government to open the spigot. I suspect these are issues we will not have visibility on in the immediate future." SHOKI OMORI, CHIEF DESK STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES, TOKYO (IN A NOTE): "Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has so far offered no hint that he will resign, and the measured confidence of his post-election remarks suggests that he intends to remain in office. "Many back-bench LDP legislators - wary of plunging into a leadership contest while bilateral tariff talks with Washington are unfinished and party approval ratings remain depressed - appear disinclined to 'reach for the chestnut in the fire' by forcing an early succession battle. "Against that political backdrop, prospects for an aggressive fiscal stimulus are limited. Mr Ishiba has shown no appetite for revenue-hungry measures such as a temporary reduction of the consumption tax rate, and even a leadership change would be unlikely to accelerate the launch of a large-scale package. "A meaningful supplementary budget, if one emerges, would not be debated until the autumn Diet session at the earliest. The only proposal now circulating within the coalition - a modest, one-off cash transfer to households - would entail little additional financing, and therefore little immediate impact on government borrowing."
Bloomberg
21-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Analysts See More Volatility in Yen, Stocks After Japan Election
The yen may be volatile against the dollar as a setback for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition in the upper house election casts doubt over the nation's policy direction, dimming the appeal of Japanese assets, strategists say. Ishiba said he intended to stay on even as his party looks likely to govern the country without a majority in at least one of the legislative chambers for the first time since 1955.
Reuters
20-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Japan's shaky government loses upper house control
TOKYO, July 21 (Reuters) - Japan's ruling coalition is certain to lose control of the upper house in Sunday's election, public broadcaster NHK reported , an outcome that further weakens Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power as a tariff deadline with the United States looms. While the ballot does not directly determine whether Ishiba's administration will fall, it heaps political pressure on the embattled leader who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October. Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito were certain to fall short of the 50 seats needed to secure the 248-seat upper chamber in an election where half the seats were up for grabs, NHK said early on Monday, with six seats still to call. That comes on top of its worst showing in 15 years in October's lower house election, a vote which has left Ishiba's administration vulnerable to no-confidence motions and calls from within his own party for leadership change. Speaking late on Sunday evening after exit polls closed, Ishiba told NHK he "solemnly" accepted the "harsh result". "We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realizing our national interests," he later told TV Tokyo. Asked whether he intended to stay on as prime minister and party leader, he said "that's right". Japan, the world's fourth largest economy, faces a deadline of August 1 to strike a trade deal with the United States or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party was set to finish second, vote counts showed. The fringe far-right Sanseito party, birthed on YouTube a few years ago, announced its arrival in mainstream politics with its 'Japanese First' campaign and warnings about a "silent invasion" of foreigners winning broader support. It was set to add at least 13 seats to one elected previously. Opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and welfare spending struck a chord with voters, as rising consumer prices - particularly a jump in the cost of rice - have sowed frustration at the government's response. "The LDP was largely playing defence in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue," said David Boling, a director at consulting firm Eurasia Group. "Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home." The LDP has been urging fiscal restraint, with one eye on a very jittery government bond market, as investors worry about Japan's ability to refinance the world's largest debt pile. Any concessions the LDP must now strike with opposition parties to pass policy will only further elevate those nerves, analysts say. "The ruling party will have to compromise in order to gain the cooperation of the opposition, and the budget will continue to expand," said Yu Uchiyama, a politics professor at the University of Tokyo. "Overseas investors' evaluation of the Japan economy will also be quite harsh." Sanseito, which first emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, is among those advocating fiscal expansion. But it is its tough talk on immigration that has grabbed attention, dragging once-fringe political rhetoric into the mainstream. It remains to be seen whether the party can follow the path of other far-right parties with which it has drawn comparisons, such as Germany's AfD and Reform UK. "I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners," said Yu Nagai, a 25-year-old student who voted for Sanseito earlier on Sunday. "When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected," Nagai said after casting his ballot at a polling station in Tokyo's Shinjuku ward. Japan, the world's oldest society, saw foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year. That is still just 3% of the total population, a much smaller fraction than in the United States and Europe, but comes amid a tourism boom that has made foreigners far more visible across the country.
