Latest news with #urbanairmobility
Sustainability Times
a day ago
- Automotive
- Sustainability Times
This Flying Car Just Took Off for the First Time—Jaw-Dropping Video Shows the Moment That Could Redefine Modern Transportation
IN A NUTSHELL 🚀 CycloTech successfully tested the BlackBird , an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, showcasing innovative technology. successfully tested the , an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, showcasing innovative technology. 🔋 The BlackBird uses unique CycloRotors , offering enhanced maneuverability and efficiency for urban air mobility. uses unique , offering enhanced maneuverability and efficiency for urban air mobility. 🌍 eVTOLs like the upcoming CruiseUp have the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions compared to gasoline-powered vehicles. like the upcoming have the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions compared to gasoline-powered vehicles. 🏙️ The integration of eVTOLs in urban environments promises to revolutionize commuting by reducing travel times and traffic congestion. The future of transportation is rapidly evolving, and with it comes the promise of a more sustainable and efficient way to travel. Austrian aviation company CycloTech is at the forefront of this revolution, recently achieving a significant milestone with the first flight of its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, the BlackBird. This achievement underscores the potential for eVTOL technology to transform urban mobility, offering a glimpse into a future where personal air vehicles are as common as cars on our roads. The BlackBird: A New Era in Air Mobility The BlackBird prototype by CycloTech represents a groundbreaking development in the realm of personal air transportation. The aircraft uses unique CycloRotors, which are barrel-shaped rotors inspired by maritime propellers. These rotors allow for a high degree of maneuverability, enabling the aircraft to move in any direction without rotating its entire body. This design not only enhances the efficiency of the aircraft but also ensures its stability, even in challenging weather conditions. During its inaugural flight, the BlackBird was controlled remotely, showcasing the capabilities of CycloTech's innovative propulsion system. While the flight primarily consisted of hovering maneuvers, it was a critical step in validating the technology behind the CycloRotors. This successful demonstration paves the way for the next phase of development, which includes refining the technology for CycloTech's larger project, the CruiseUp. The Promising Future of the CruiseUp Building on the success of the BlackBird, CycloTech is developing the CruiseUp, a two-seat personal air vehicle designed for urban and suburban travel. With a projected top speed of approximately 95 miles per hour and a range of about 60 miles, the CruiseUp is poised to offer a viable alternative to traditional ground transportation for city commutes. The company aims to launch the CruiseUp on the market by 2035, marking a significant leap forward in personal air travel. Like electric vehicles, eVTOLs promise to reduce carbon emissions significantly. Studies indicate that eVTOLs with three passengers can produce up to 52% less carbon pollution than gasoline-powered cars, even when charged using non-renewable energy sources. As the global push for cleaner energy continues, the environmental benefits of eVTOLs are expected to grow, making them a crucial component of sustainable urban transportation strategies. Accelerating Innovation and Addressing Challenges Following the BlackBird's successful demonstration, CycloTech is accelerating its flight test program to refine the eVTOL technology further. The company's commitment to innovation is evident in its ambitious plans for the future. CycloTech's chief technology officer, Tahsin Kart, emphasized the company's mission to 'drive progress and redefine what's possible in vertical flight,' highlighting their dedication to overcoming the challenges associated with this emerging technology. Despite the promising advancements, there are still hurdles to overcome before eVTOLs become a common sight in our skies. Issues such as regulatory approval, air traffic management, and infrastructure development must be addressed to ensure the safe and efficient integration of personal air vehicles into urban environments. CycloTech's ongoing efforts to refine and validate its technology are crucial steps toward addressing these challenges and realizing the full potential of eVTOLs. The Impact on Everyday Commuting The introduction of eVTOLs like the CruiseUp could revolutionize the way we think about commuting. With the potential to drastically reduce travel times and alleviate traffic congestion, these personal air vehicles offer a compelling alternative to traditional ground transportation. As urban areas continue to expand and traffic becomes increasingly congested, the need for innovative solutions like eVTOLs becomes ever more pressing. Moreover, the widespread adoption of eVTOLs could lead to significant environmental benefits, as these vehicles produce far fewer emissions than their gasoline-powered counterparts. As the technology matures and becomes more accessible, eVTOLs have the potential to play a pivotal role in creating more sustainable and livable urban environments. The question remains, however, how quickly can we overcome the existing challenges to make this futuristic vision a reality? The journey toward integrating eVTOLs into everyday life is just beginning, but the potential impact on society is immense. With companies like CycloTech leading the charge, the future of personal air travel looks promising. As we stand on the brink of this new era, the question arises: How will the integration of eVTOLs reshape our cities and the way we live? This article is based on verified sources and supported by editorial technologies. Did you like it? 4.6/5 (20)
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Automotive
- Yahoo
China's low-altitude aviation gets major boost with new wind tunnel testing facility
China has reportedly started operations on its first compounded wind tunnel dedicated to low-altitude aircraft testing in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province. Developed by Guangdong Aerospace Research Academy (GARA), the development is being seen as a major milestone for the low-altitude aviation sector—especially drones and urban air mobility vehicles. A composite wind tunnel is a controlled testing facility that simulates flying conditions by blowing air over a fixed model of an aircraft or drone. The structure enables engineers to study aerodynamics (the movement of air around an aircraft) and optimize control systems and flight performance. Wind tunnels are very useful for safely testing aircraft designs and estimating factors such as wind resistance. They also enable testing to be completed faster and more economically than real-world outdoor test flights. The new wind tunnel, it is reported, has been specially designed to test low-altitude aircraft. To this end, it is tailored for drones, air taxis, and other low-altitude flyers, which are increasingly important for logistics, urban transport, and surveillance. Integrates traditional tech with 'windshaper' system The tunnel is China's first 4.5-meter class, making it big enough to test medium-sized drones or small crewed aircraft, while still being efficient for rapid testing cycles. The structure will also foster quicker local testing, alleviate waits of up to a year at facilities like the one in Harbin, which is far away and overbooked. "There were companies that waited for over a year for a testing slot in Harbin. Now, with the wind tunnel launched in the Greater Bay Area, the entire process for wind tunnel experiments, from coordination to testing, takes just three to four months," said Shang Zuming, the director of the wind tunnel testing platform at GARA. "We fix the aircraft to a test platform and let the air flow, creating a relative movement and simulating the conditions of flight in the sky to measure technological parameters," explained Sun Liangbao, head of wind tunnel technology at the Guangdong Aerospace Research Academy. The new composite wind tunnel integrates traditional aviation wind tunnel system with 'windshaper' technology. This can be likened to a dynamic airflow system optimized for smaller and more agile drone testing. This dual function makes it a hybrid platform, marking the first of its kind in China while slashing research time and development costs. Fostering quicker deployment of new flight technologies GARA is planning a 'Bay Area No.1' data-sharing platform to streamline testing and promote collaboration among companies and research institutions. Considering the broader perspective, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area is a national priority for high-tech innovation. This will prove critical, as drones and low-altitude aircraft are a major focus of economic growth in China. To this end, this new facility helps bridge the gap between lab-based R&D and real-world deployment. According to local reports, it will also support faster commercialization of new flight technologies, including autonomous drones. Looking at the bigger picture, the new wind tunnel marks a pivotal step in accelerating China's low-altitude aviation ambitions by turning aerodynamic theory into flight-ready reality. Solve the daily Crossword
Gizmodo
5 days ago
- Automotive
- Gizmodo
Joby Aviation Has a Bold Plan to Make Flying Cars Real—Fast
Flying cars were supposed to be a fantasy. A punchline. A cartoonish promise from a Jetsons-era past. But Joby Aviation is no longer promising anything. It's building them. The Santa Cruz, California-based company just unveiled the expansion of its manufacturing facility in Marina, CA, where it now has the capacity to build up to 24 electric air taxis per year. That's two flying cars a month. With additional capacity ramping up in Dayton, Ohio, and test flights already underway in Dubai, the future of urban air mobility is no longer stuck in the concept phase. The production milestone comes as Joby's aircraft completed piloted test flights in Dubai, marking the start of its commercial market readiness program in the UAE. In partnership with Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority, the company is preparing for passenger operations as early as 2026, a timeline that looks far more realistic than it did even 12 months ago. 'Reimagining urban mobility takes speed, scale, and precision manufacturing,' said Eric Allison, Joby's Chief Product Officer. 'Our expanded footprint, in both California and Ohio, is preparing us to do just that.' But as the aircraft roll off the line and take to the skies, a harder question looms: Is the world actually ready for mass-scale flying machines? Unlike many of its eVTOL competitors still hawking mockups and vaporware, Joby is building real, FAA-cleared aircraft with vertical takeoff capabilities, 200 mph top speeds, and near-silent operation. Each aircraft can carry a pilot and four passengers and is intended for short, high-value routes, like from Dubai International Airport to Palm Jumeirah in 12 minutes (a trip that usually takes 45 minutes by car). At the Marina facility, which now spans over 435,000 square feet, Joby is producing aircraft components using 3D printing, data-driven quality control, and a team trained in part by Toyota engineers, thanks to a deep partnership between the two companies. The factory will also house simulators for pilot training, ground testing areas, and FAA-certification labs. Over in Dayton, Ohio, birthplace of aviation and now home to Joby's next-generation production line, the company is preparing to eventually build 500 aircraft per year. It's one of the most ambitious reindustrialization efforts by a Silicon Valley startup in recent memory, supported by state grants and a growing Midwestern advanced manufacturing workforce. While the manufacturing may be American, the first passengers won't be. Joby's launch customer is Dubai, which granted the company exclusive air taxi rights for six years. In return, Joby is working with local aviation authorities to stand up a full commercial air taxi network, starting with a vertiport under construction at Dubai International Airport. Dubai's buy-in is key. The city has invested heavily in smart mobility, from driverless trains to robotaxis, and now hopes to integrate eVTOL aircraft into its broader transport grid. According to Dubai officials, the air taxis will be a premium service, targeted at those who want fast, seamless mobility between key parts of the city. 'The air taxi will introduce a new premium service for residents and visitors seeking smooth, fast, and safe travel to key destinations across the city,' said Mattar Al Tayer, Director General of Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority. 'The service will also strengthen integration with public transport systems and individual mobility options.' The word premium is doing a lot of work here. While Joby's aircraft may be clean, quiet, and fast, they are not cheap. At least not yet. With limited seating, piloted flights, and significant regulatory costs, it's likely that early riders will be CEOs, tourists, and the ultra-wealthy, not your average daily commuter. That raises questions about access, equity, and infrastructure. Will flying cars become another luxury product for elites, while cities continue to neglect ground transportation for everyone else? Or could a mature eVTOL market actually relieve urban congestion and create scalable new forms of public transit? So far, the answers aren't clear. Joby's aircraft are real. Its timelines are aggressive. But adoption will depend on everything from pricing models and safety standards to public perception and noise tolerance. With factories humming and flights underway, Joby Aviation may be the first company to industrialize the flying car, not as a sci-fi dream, but as a shippable product. Two aircraft a month. Six this year. Hundreds soon. It's the kind of milestone that usually marks the start of something big. But like any disruptive technology, what happens next will depend on more than just engineering. We've figured out how to build flying cars. Now we have to decide what kind of world we want to fly them in.
Yahoo
16-07-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Is Archer Aviation Ready to Prove the Model?
Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR) has had an eventful half-year since I last covered the company's ambitions in urban air mobility (UAM). After raising $850 million at near-peak prices, completing its first piloted Midnight flights, and watching Washington fast-track eVTOL integration, investors hope the company will turn plans into action within the next six months. The stock has been volatile with each new development while investors await the FAA's final decision, yet it remains roughly flat year-to-date. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with ACHR. In this article, I will examine how Archer stacks up on each front and whether the potential payoff justifies the risk. Source: Archer Archer's mission is to unlock urban skies with its all-electric Midnight aircraft, aiming to transform how people move within and between cities. Midnight is essentially an air taxi with one pilot and four passenger seats, designed for short hops of up to 100 miles at speeds as high as 150 mph. By taking off and landing vertically like a helicopter yet cruising on wing-borne lift like an airplane, Midnight can exploit unused vertical airspace to bypass big-city traffic. Archer's value proposition centers on speed and convenience: a typical ride could be three to five times faster than driving, shrinking a 70-minute slog to the airport to about 15 minutes. The company promises a safe, quiet, zero-emission ride that will ultimately be cost-competitive with premium ground transport. At the center of everything is the Midnight aircraft. Archer's design choices prioritize safety and reliability to win regulator trust and public acceptance. Midnight uses 12 propellers (six tilt rotors and six fixed) to ensure stability and redundancy. It carries six separate battery packs so that a single failure will not bring down the vehicle, a critical safety advantage over traditional helicopters that rely on one engine. Reducing noise is another design goal: Midnight's smaller, distributed rotors and electric propulsion make it up to 100 times quieter than a helicopter at cruise. Archer is also exploring next-generation batteries, such as solid-state cells, to double energy density and extend range over time. Archer intends to sell its Midnight aircraft or operate them itself as a service and has already obtained a Part 135 Air Carrier certificate from the FAA, which is required to run commercial air-taxi flights. This suggests a hybrid model: Archer will likely act as an airline in certain launch cities while also selling aircraft to partners abroad. In the United States, Archer and United Airlines plan to launch an urban air shuttle network, including an initial Chicago route and an air-taxi service in New York City once Midnight is certified. Internationally, Archer is forming joint ventures and supplier deals to seed its technology in major markets. For example, it is the primary eVTOL partner for the UAE's planned air-taxi network in Abu Dhabi (targeting service by Q4 2025) and has struck agreements in Japan (with Sumitomo) and, more recently, Indonesia to pave the way for early commercial use ahead of U.S. approval. With the test flights in Abu Dhabi, Archer achieved a critical milestone as it prepares for commercial deployment. Operating the aircraft in peak summer heat gives the company real-world performance data that will feed directly into certification efforts in both the UAE and the United States. By planting flags globally, Archer hopes to generate initial revenue abroad and refine operations while U.S. regulators finalize the green light at home. Market Opportunity The total addressable market (TAM) for UAM is widely projected to be enormous, though it will take years to materialize. A recent industry forecast pegs the UAM/eVTOL market at roughly $23 billion by 2030, a 31 percent compound annual growth rate from essentially zero today. Source: Markets and Markets Early applications will focus on high-density cities where roads are jammed, and travelers will pay a premium for time savings. Think airport shuttles in New York, Los Angeles, London, and Tokyo, and eventually intercity hops replacing short regional flights or long drives. Archer's $6 billion order book hints at demand. It includes provisional orders and options for up to 200 aircraft from United Airlines, 100 for the UAE, 100 for Japan, and others, many backed by deposits or government funding. For perspective, Archer's indicative orders roughly match its current market capitalization, highlighting the high expectations embedded in the stock. Converting those orders into revenue, however, depends on meeting certification and production milestones on schedule. It's important to note that no company has commercialized eVTOL service yet, so market share is currently about positioning and partnerships rather than revenue. Archer faces a pack of well-funded rivals racing to be first in the air. The closest U.S. competitor is Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY), whose eVTOL prototype and timeline closely parallel Archer's. Joby, backed by Toyota and Delta Air Lines, has also targeted a 2025 launch and secured FAA Part 135 operating authority, in addition to a contract with the U.S. Air Force. Joby has delivered its first aircraft to the UAE and begun commercial market-readiness work, including multiple piloted flights. Another peer, Eve Air Mobility (NYSE:EVEX), a spin-off of Embraer, plans to start services in 2026 and aircraft sales in 2027. Europe's entrants, Lilium (LSE:0AB4) and Vertical Aerospace (NYSE:EVTL), have struggled; Lilium's market cap has collapsed to about $30 million, essentially pricing in a high risk of failure, while Vertical has a more modest $500 million valuation and a later timeline. China's EHang (NASDAQ:EH) pursues an autonomous two-seater drone model and has generated a few million dollars in pilot-program revenue. Archer and Joby are generally viewed as the U.S. front-runners, with Archer arguably ahead in some respects and lagging in others. Archer's Edge Archer has been extremely pragmatic in its certification strategy. Rather than reinvent every wheel, it sources key components from established aerospace suppliers. Avionics from Garmin, flight controls from Honeywell, electric motors from Safran, etc., where those parts are already FAA-certified in traditional aircraft. This approach minimizes the regulatory unknowns. The idea is to streamline approvals by using proven tech wherever possible and focusing certification on the novel integration (the eVTOL design itself). Indeed, Archer has steadily checked off milestones: it achieved its first full transition to wing-borne flight last year, and more recently it began piloted flight tests where Midnight successfully took off, cruised at 125 mph, and landed conventionally on a runway. Those piloted tests demonstrate that Archer's aircraft handles as expected in real conditions just like the simulator, according to its test pilot, building confidence with regulators. Another differentiator is Archer's focus on operational versatility. Uniquely, Midnight is being tested for both VTOL and conventional runway takeoffs/landings (CTOL). Robust landing gear allows it to use airports or airstrips when available, which can save batteries and enhance safety (by providing more options in an emergency). Finally, Archer's strategic partners and backers lend it credibility (and capital). United Airlines' early $10 million deposit not only validates Archer's market but also gives it a ready launch customer. Automaker Stellantis has become a major investor and manufacturing partner, agreeing to help build Midnight at scale using automotive production techniques. This is a big deal producing aircraft efficiently is notoriously difficult, and Stellantis' involvement could accelerate Archer's ramp to the targeted 650 units per year by 2030. Archer is also leveraging Palantir's (NASDAQ:PLTR) AI software to optimize its operations and flight data, and it has teamed up with Anduril Industries on a defense variant of its eVTOL. Nonetheless, competitors have their own partnerships. Joby Aviation, for example, also has strong partners (Toyota, SkyWest, and a deal with Delta Air Lines for airport shuttles) and a head start serving the U.S. Air Force with pre-production eVTOLs. In my view, any breakthrough by a rival could cut both ways. Capital could flood into the winner and punish the laggards, or investors might see the advance as sector-wide validation and bid up everyone. Either way, this isn't a winner-take-all arena. Several operators are likely to carve out durable niches. Nonetheless, Archer's ability to claim first-mover advantage will depend on flawless execution in the next 18 months. With FAA type certification expected by late 2025, Archer is effectively in a high-stakes race to the finish line. The good news is that recent U.S. policy moves may help. Washington announced an eVTOL pilot program to accelerate approvals and infrastructure, signaling federal desire to see American players lead this new industry. Following that announcement, Archer's $850 million raise timed perfectly with the White House order calling for American dominance in eVTOLs. These tailwinds could help Archer more than smaller rivals, but the crown remains up for grabs until paying passengers are flying regularly. Archer remains a pre-revenue company, so its financial story centers on cash burn, funding, and leverage. In the first quarter of 2025, Archer reported a net loss of $93.4 million. Losses are normal for a startup in R&D mode, but investors are watching the trend closely. On that front, Archer's Q1 net loss narrowed from $116.5 million in Q1 2024 and beat analysts' EPS expectations with a loss of $0.17 per share. Operating expenses were $144 million, but heavy non-cash charges padded that figure. On an adjusted basis, operating costs were $113 million as the company hires and builds infrastructure. The burn rate (cash used in operating and investing) was about $105 million, implying roughly $35 million per month and, before new funding, less than one year of runway. Source: Gurufocus The balance sheet, however, has transformed with recent fund-raises. Archer ended March 2025 with just over $1.03 billion in cash, then raised another $850 million in June by selling 85 million new shares at $10 each. The infusion boosted liquidity to roughly $2 billion, raised at a favorable price that limited dilution. Even so, dilution has been significant and will likely continue; the share count has ballooned more than fivefold since the SPAC merger and now exceeds 540 million shares before including the June issuance. Early investors have paid for ample funding with significant dilution. With $2 billion in cash, Archer is funded through at least 2026 by most estimates. At the current $100 million quarterly burn, that represents two full years of cushion. Burn may increase as Archer shifts from prototyping to manufacturing. The company plans to start low-volume production in the second half of 2025, targeting two aircraft per month by year-end, and then scale to dozens per month by 2026-27. Management aims to produce up to 10 Midnight aircraft in 2025, including several test vehicles, and to conduct for-credit flight tests that count toward certification. Progress on these fronts will signal whether the first revenue is on track for 2025. Ramping production will require capital investment in tooling, supply chain, and personnel. Archer's 400,000-square-foot factory in Covington, Georgia, is complete and ready to scale, while Stellantis likely brings manufacturing expertise and potentially off-balance-sheet resources. Archer has not published an expected unit cost or sale price for Midnight, but management uses roughly $5 million per aircraft when converting MOUs into backlog dollars. If Archer gets a dozen aircraft in commercial service in 2025-26, it will finally record revenue, and investors can begin modeling utilization and profitability per aircraft. Until then, traditional multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, even P/S) are not applicable in the absence of earnings or revenue. Archer's valuation rests almost entirely on future expectations, making the stock a venture-style bet. That said, the market is assigning a multi-billion-dollar value to Archer, so investors clearly see a sizable payoff down the road. Archer's market cap is just under $6.6 billion, up from less than $3 billion a year ago, reflecting increased optimism that the first aircraft are closer than ever. The market cap roughly equals the $6 billion backlog, implying a price-to-backlog ratio of about 1x. For a pre-revenue firm that is rich, but it suggests investors believe a large portion of those orders will convert. By comparison, Joby Aviation currently commands about $9.5 billion in market value, while Eve Holding is around $2.1 billion, and the smaller peers (Vertical, Lilium) are well under $1 billion. Archer plans to scale to 650 aircraft a year by 2030. Assuming each Midnight generates $2 to 3 million in annual revenue (either via operating lease/ride services or via sales price recognized), that implies $1.5 to 2 billion in annual revenue by 2030. If Archer achieves that, today's $6 billion market cap is about 4x a potential 2030 revenue. Of course, that scenario is speculative and five years out, but it shows the upside the market is pricing in. In the near term, Wall Street analysts expect around $20-50 million in revenue in 2025 and $180 million in 2026, ramping to roughly half a billion by 2027. The market values Archer as if it will become a major player in UAM. At the end of the day, valuing Archer is a bet on execution at this stage. The stock is not cheap by any conventional metric, but if Archer becomes one of the winners in an entirely new industry, today's market cap could prove modest. If UAM truly takes off in the 2030s, leading eVTOL manufacturers/operators could justify tens of billions in value. Archer is positioning to be in that conversation. That potential upside is what investors are paying for today, with full acknowledgement that the company may stumble and never fully justify the valuation if things go south. Hitting milestones could justify the valuation and then some. Conversely, any shortfall, delays, fewer deliveries, cost overruns, could drive the stock lower. It's entirely possible that eVTOL adoption will be slower and bumpier than optimists expect, which would pressure all players, including Archer. Moreover, once the FAA signs off and Midnight aircraft start shipping, the focus shifts to phase two: unit cost, fleet utilization, and gross margins, the hard numbers that will decide how scalable this industry can be. Archer's story remains high-risk, high-reward, but it is far more advanced than a year ago. Investors with a high tolerance for volatility may find Archer a compelling play on transportation's future, while those with lower risk appetite may wait for clear revenue traction. As always, execution is the key. The coming 12 to 18 months will likely determine whether Archer Aviation can truly fly above the pack or if these ambitious plans start to lose altitude. Given everything, I am optimistic that management can execute the plan and start to deliver. The skies of urban mobility are almost within reach, and Archer is one big step (or flight) away from making history. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. 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Yahoo
16-07-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Is Archer Aviation Ready to Prove the Model?
Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR) has had an eventful half-year since I last covered the company's ambitions in urban air mobility (UAM). After raising $850 million at near-peak prices, completing its first piloted Midnight flights, and watching Washington fast-track eVTOL integration, investors hope the company will turn plans into action within the next six months. The stock has been volatile with each new development while investors await the FAA's final decision, yet it remains roughly flat year-to-date. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with ACHR. In this article, I will examine how Archer stacks up on each front and whether the potential payoff justifies the risk. Source: Archer Archer's mission is to unlock urban skies with its all-electric Midnight aircraft, aiming to transform how people move within and between cities. Midnight is essentially an air taxi with one pilot and four passenger seats, designed for short hops of up to 100 miles at speeds as high as 150 mph. By taking off and landing vertically like a helicopter yet cruising on wing-borne lift like an airplane, Midnight can exploit unused vertical airspace to bypass big-city traffic. Archer's value proposition centers on speed and convenience: a typical ride could be three to five times faster than driving, shrinking a 70-minute slog to the airport to about 15 minutes. The company promises a safe, quiet, zero-emission ride that will ultimately be cost-competitive with premium ground transport. At the center of everything is the Midnight aircraft. Archer's design choices prioritize safety and reliability to win regulator trust and public acceptance. Midnight uses 12 propellers (six tilt rotors and six fixed) to ensure stability and redundancy. It carries six separate battery packs so that a single failure will not bring down the vehicle, a critical safety advantage over traditional helicopters that rely on one engine. Reducing noise is another design goal: Midnight's smaller, distributed rotors and electric propulsion make it up to 100 times quieter than a helicopter at cruise. Archer is also exploring next-generation batteries, such as solid-state cells, to double energy density and extend range over time. Archer intends to sell its Midnight aircraft or operate them itself as a service and has already obtained a Part 135 Air Carrier certificate from the FAA, which is required to run commercial air-taxi flights. This suggests a hybrid model: Archer will likely act as an airline in certain launch cities while also selling aircraft to partners abroad. In the United States, Archer and United Airlines plan to launch an urban air shuttle network, including an initial Chicago route and an air-taxi service in New York City once Midnight is certified. Internationally, Archer is forming joint ventures and supplier deals to seed its technology in major markets. For example, it is the primary eVTOL partner for the UAE's planned air-taxi network in Abu Dhabi (targeting service by Q4 2025) and has struck agreements in Japan (with Sumitomo) and, more recently, Indonesia to pave the way for early commercial use ahead of U.S. approval. With the test flights in Abu Dhabi, Archer achieved a critical milestone as it prepares for commercial deployment. Operating the aircraft in peak summer heat gives the company real-world performance data that will feed directly into certification efforts in both the UAE and the United States. By planting flags globally, Archer hopes to generate initial revenue abroad and refine operations while U.S. regulators finalize the green light at home. The total addressable market (TAM) for UAM is widely projected to be enormous, though it will take years to materialize. A recent industry forecast pegs the UAM/eVTOL market at roughly $23 billion by 2030, a 31 percent compound annual growth rate from essentially zero today. Source: Markets and Markets Early applications will focus on high-density cities where roads are jammed, and travelers will pay a premium for time savings. Think airport shuttles in New York, Los Angeles, London, and Tokyo, and eventually intercity hops replacing short regional flights or long drives. Archer's $6 billion order book hints at demand. It includes provisional orders and options for up to 200 aircraft from United Airlines, 100 for the UAE, 100 for Japan, and others, many backed by deposits or government funding. For perspective, Archer's indicative orders roughly match its current market capitalization, highlighting the high expectations embedded in the stock. Converting those orders into revenue, however, depends on meeting certification and production milestones on schedule. It's important to note that no company has commercialized eVTOL service yet, so market share is currently about positioning and partnerships rather than revenue. Archer faces a pack of well-funded rivals racing to be first in the air. The closest U.S. competitor is Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY), whose eVTOL prototype and timeline closely parallel Archer's. Joby, backed by Toyota and Delta Air Lines, has also targeted a 2025 launch and secured FAA Part 135 operating authority, in addition to a contract with the U.S. Air Force. Joby has delivered its first aircraft to the UAE and begun commercial market-readiness work, including multiple piloted flights. Another peer, Eve Air Mobility (NYSE:EVEX), a spin-off of Embraer, plans to start services in 2026 and aircraft sales in 2027. Europe's entrants, Lilium (LSE:0AB4) and Vertical Aerospace (NYSE:EVTL), have struggled; Lilium's market cap has collapsed to about $30 million, essentially pricing in a high risk of failure, while Vertical has a more modest $500 million valuation and a later timeline. China's EHang (NASDAQ:EH) pursues an autonomous two-seater drone model and has generated a few million dollars in pilot-program revenue. Archer and Joby are generally viewed as the U.S. front-runners, with Archer arguably ahead in some respects and lagging in others. Archer has been extremely pragmatic in its certification strategy. Rather than reinvent every wheel, it sources key components from established aerospace suppliers. Avionics from Garmin, flight controls from Honeywell, electric motors from Safran, etc., where those parts are already FAA-certified in traditional aircraft. This approach minimizes the regulatory unknowns. The idea is to streamline approvals by using proven tech wherever possible and focusing certification on the novel integration (the eVTOL design itself). Indeed, Archer has steadily checked off milestones: it achieved its first full transition to wing-borne flight last year, and more recently it began piloted flight tests where Midnight successfully took off, cruised at 125 mph, and landed conventionally on a runway. Those piloted tests demonstrate that Archer's aircraft handles as expected in real conditions just like the simulator, according to its test pilot, building confidence with regulators. Another differentiator is Archer's focus on operational versatility. Uniquely, Midnight is being tested for both VTOL and conventional runway takeoffs/landings (CTOL). Robust landing gear allows it to use airports or airstrips when available, which can save batteries and enhance safety (by providing more options in an emergency). Finally, Archer's strategic partners and backers lend it credibility (and capital). United Airlines' early $10 million deposit not only validates Archer's market but also gives it a ready launch customer. Automaker Stellantis has become a major investor and manufacturing partner, agreeing to help build Midnight at scale using automotive production techniques. This is a big deal producing aircraft efficiently is notoriously difficult, and Stellantis' involvement could accelerate Archer's ramp to the targeted 650 units per year by 2030. Archer is also leveraging Palantir's (NASDAQ:PLTR) AI software to optimize its operations and flight data, and it has teamed up with Anduril Industries on a defense variant of its eVTOL. Nonetheless, competitors have their own partnerships. Joby Aviation, for example, also has strong partners (Toyota, SkyWest, and a deal with Delta Air Lines for airport shuttles) and a head start serving the U.S. Air Force with pre-production eVTOLs. In my view, any breakthrough by a rival could cut both ways. Capital could flood into the winner and punish the laggards, or investors might see the advance as sector-wide validation and bid up everyone. Either way, this isn't a winner-take-all arena. Several operators are likely to carve out durable niches. Nonetheless, Archer's ability to claim first-mover advantage will depend on flawless execution in the next 18 months. With FAA type certification expected by late 2025, Archer is effectively in a high-stakes race to the finish line. The good news is that recent U.S. policy moves may help. Washington announced an eVTOL pilot program to accelerate approvals and infrastructure, signaling federal desire to see American players lead this new industry. Following that announcement, Archer's $850 million raise timed perfectly with the White House order calling for American dominance in eVTOLs. These tailwinds could help Archer more than smaller rivals, but the crown remains up for grabs until paying passengers are flying regularly. Archer remains a pre-revenue company, so its financial story centers on cash burn, funding, and leverage. In the first quarter of 2025, Archer reported a net loss of $93.4 million. Losses are normal for a startup in R&D mode, but investors are watching the trend closely. On that front, Archer's Q1 net loss narrowed from $116.5 million in Q1 2024 and beat analysts' EPS expectations with a loss of $0.17 per share. Operating expenses were $144 million, but heavy non-cash charges padded that figure. On an adjusted basis, operating costs were $113 million as the company hires and builds infrastructure. The burn rate (cash used in operating and investing) was about $105 million, implying roughly $35 million per month and, before new funding, less than one year of runway. Source: Gurufocus The balance sheet, however, has transformed with recent fund-raises. Archer ended March 2025 with just over $1.03 billion in cash, then raised another $850 million in June by selling 85 million new shares at $10 each. The infusion boosted liquidity to roughly $2 billion, raised at a favorable price that limited dilution. Even so, dilution has been significant and will likely continue; the share count has ballooned more than fivefold since the SPAC merger and now exceeds 540 million shares before including the June issuance. Early investors have paid for ample funding with significant dilution. With $2 billion in cash, Archer is funded through at least 2026 by most estimates. At the current $100 million quarterly burn, that represents two full years of cushion. Burn may increase as Archer shifts from prototyping to manufacturing. The company plans to start low-volume production in the second half of 2025, targeting two aircraft per month by year-end, and then scale to dozens per month by 2026-27. Management aims to produce up to 10 Midnight aircraft in 2025, including several test vehicles, and to conduct for-credit flight tests that count toward certification. Progress on these fronts will signal whether the first revenue is on track for 2025. Ramping production will require capital investment in tooling, supply chain, and personnel. Archer's 400,000-square-foot factory in Covington, Georgia, is complete and ready to scale, while Stellantis likely brings manufacturing expertise and potentially off-balance-sheet resources. Archer has not published an expected unit cost or sale price for Midnight, but management uses roughly $5 million per aircraft when converting MOUs into backlog dollars. If Archer gets a dozen aircraft in commercial service in 2025-26, it will finally record revenue, and investors can begin modeling utilization and profitability per aircraft. Until then, traditional multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, even P/S) are not applicable in the absence of earnings or revenue. Archer's valuation rests almost entirely on future expectations, making the stock a venture-style bet. That said, the market is assigning a multi-billion-dollar value to Archer, so investors clearly see a sizable payoff down the road. Archer's market cap is just under $6.6 billion, up from less than $3 billion a year ago, reflecting increased optimism that the first aircraft are closer than ever. The market cap roughly equals the $6 billion backlog, implying a price-to-backlog ratio of about 1x. For a pre-revenue firm that is rich, but it suggests investors believe a large portion of those orders will convert. By comparison, Joby Aviation currently commands about $9.5 billion in market value, while Eve Holding is around $2.1 billion, and the smaller peers (Vertical, Lilium) are well under $1 billion. Archer plans to scale to 650 aircraft a year by 2030. Assuming each Midnight generates $2 to 3 million in annual revenue (either via operating lease/ride services or via sales price recognized), that implies $1.5 to 2 billion in annual revenue by 2030. If Archer achieves that, today's $6 billion market cap is about 4x a potential 2030 revenue. Of course, that scenario is speculative and five years out, but it shows the upside the market is pricing in. In the near term, Wall Street analysts expect around $20-50 million in revenue in 2025 and $180 million in 2026, ramping to roughly half a billion by 2027. The market values Archer as if it will become a major player in UAM. At the end of the day, valuing Archer is a bet on execution at this stage. The stock is not cheap by any conventional metric, but if Archer becomes one of the winners in an entirely new industry, today's market cap could prove modest. If UAM truly takes off in the 2030s, leading eVTOL manufacturers/operators could justify tens of billions in value. Archer is positioning to be in that conversation. That potential upside is what investors are paying for today, with full acknowledgement that the company may stumble and never fully justify the valuation if things go south. Hitting milestones could justify the valuation and then some. Conversely, any shortfall, delays, fewer deliveries, cost overruns, could drive the stock lower. It's entirely possible that eVTOL adoption will be slower and bumpier than optimists expect, which would pressure all players, including Archer. Moreover, once the FAA signs off and Midnight aircraft start shipping, the focus shifts to phase two: unit cost, fleet utilization, and gross margins, the hard numbers that will decide how scalable this industry can be. Archer's story remains high-risk, high-reward, but it is far more advanced than a year ago. Investors with a high tolerance for volatility may find Archer a compelling play on transportation's future, while those with lower risk appetite may wait for clear revenue traction. As always, execution is the key. The coming 12 to 18 months will likely determine whether Archer Aviation can truly fly above the pack or if these ambitious plans start to lose altitude. Given everything, I am optimistic that management can execute the plan and start to deliver. The skies of urban mobility are almost within reach, and Archer is one big step (or flight) away from making history. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. 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