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Mada
15 hours ago
- Politics
- Mada
Sudan Nashra: Burhan agrees to week-long humanitarian truce in Fasher Armed groups' ministerial quotas derail PM's technocratic vision Hemedti makes first field appearance in two years, strikes conciliatory tone toward Egypt, armed groups
Amid a deepening humanitarian catastrophe in North Darfur's Fasher — besieged by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for over a year — Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC) Chair and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan agreed on Friday to a humanitarian truce proposed by United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres during a phone call between the two. North Darfur Health Ministry General Director Ibrahim Khater told Mada Masr that an air bridge is expected to be deployed soon to deliver aid to the city. On the political front, Prime Minister Kamel Idris is facing mounting obstacles in his bid to form a nonpartisan technocratic government — a key pledge he made upon taking office a month ago. In his consultations with the TSC and armed movements signatories to the Juba Peace Agreement, Burhan offered recommendations that effectively made regional representation a key criterion in the selection process, while armed movements are insisting on retaining the ministerial quotas granted to them under the deal. Both demands undermine Idris's promise. Across Sudan's western border with the Central African Republic, the UN Security Council raised alarm over RSF incursions into the neighboring country and its cooperation with local armed groups. Domestically, internal rifts within RSF ranks are emerging in West and North Kordofan, as well as in Nyala, South Darfur, amid an increasingly volatile security landscape in RSF-controlled areas. In Bara, North Kordofan, clashes broke out between Sudanese RSF fighters and mercenaries, followed by sweeping raids on villages across the state. In West Kordofan, tensions escalated between members of the Messira and Rizeigat tribes after discriminatory treatment of those wounded in last week's assault on Babanusa. Meanwhile in Nyala, South Darfur, RSF groups attacked two RSF prisons in an attempt to release detainees. Infighting among RSF factions continues in the city's neighborhoods, alongside widespread looting and detentions. In his first field appearance among his troops in nearly two years, RSF Commander Mohamed Hamdan 'Hemedti' Dagalo struck a conciliatory tone toward Egypt, proposing a political dialogue to resolve tensions. His comments came less than two weeks after the RSF took control over the strategic border triangle between Sudan, Egypt and Libya, in the far northwest of Northern State. *** PM's vision for technocratic cabinet runs into political, regional quotas During consultations with the TSC and armed movement signatories to the Juba Peace Agreement, Prime Minister Kamel Idris's plan to form a fully nonpartisan technocratic cabinet ran into interference. TSC Chair and SAF Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan offered recommendations that push regional representation to be a key criterion in the selection process, while armed movements are insisting on retaining their ministerial positions without change. A former cabinet official told Mada Masr that Idris is under a lot of pressure from the armed groups, especially the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), which is not only insisting on keeping certain ministries but is also lobbying for the reappointment of former ministers. In a statement issued Tuesday, JEM spokesperson Mohamed Zakaria reaffirmed the group's commitment to the Juba Peace Agreement, including the executive positions it guarantees. The group's leader, Gibril Ibrahim, has served as finance minister since 2021. Signed in October 2020 between the transitional government and several armed groups led by the Sudan Revolutionary Front, the deal granted these movements representation across transitional institutions — three seats on the TSC, five unspecified ministerial posts in the executive cabinet and 75 seats in the transitional legislative council. The five ministries they ultimately came to occupy are finance, minerals, labor and social development, administrative reform and federal governance. Meanwhile, though Idris had hoped to avoid entrenched regional divisions in his Cabinet, Burhan's recommendations effectively made regional representation a determining factor in the selection criteria, a senior official at the Cabinet secretariat told Mada Masr. Sudan's transitional period has been marked by deepening ethnic and regional divisions — rifts that have only widened with the outbreak of war. These dynamics are mirrored in the makeup of the TSC, whose membership is structured around geographical representation. Still, a senior TSC source told Mada Masr that the delay in forming the government does not constitute a serious obstacle. The purpose of the consultations with the armed groups and the TSC is to ensure the new government's success, the source said. Amid the stall, Idris moved ahead with appointments outside the portfolios held by armed groups — though regionally weighted — issuing a decree on Tuesday naming Lieutenant General Hassan Dawoud Kabroun, from South Kordofan, defense minister, and Police Lieutenant General Babiker Samra, from the Red Sea State, as interior minister. A source at the Defense Ministry described Kabroun as one of the military's most prominent commanders, credited with defending the General Command in central Khartoum during the two-year siege. Another military source noted that Kabroun maintains strong ties with military-aligned battalions and that his appointment was welcomed by combat units fighting alongside the military. As for Samra, a source at the Interior Ministry said he has held several senior leadership roles within the ministries, including as director of the criminal investigations and intelligence department and of general inspection department, as well as head of administrative and planning affairs. He has also completed advanced training in Sudan and abroad, notably in Egypt, and has participated in programs on strategic studies and migration control, according to the source. Some ministers in the Cabinet that was dissolved upon Idris's appointment are expected to retain their posts. Three informed sources in the TSC said Energy Minister Mohie Eddin Naim and Health Minister Haitham Mohamed Ibrahim may be reappointed, following praise from Burhan and other council members for their performance. Both are independent figures with no ties to political parties or armed groups. Consensus has also been reached between the TSC and Idris over the nomination of diplomat Badr Eddin al-Geifry as the new foreign minister, a senior diplomatic source told Mada Masr. As political influence has already begun to shape the new transitional period, the prospects of a true technocratic, nonpartisan government that Idris pledged in his speech last week appears to be waning. RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan 'Hemedti' Dagalo made his first public field appearance in two years, addressing his troops in a remote area outside Khartoum. Hemedti had only made two public field appearances with his troops — first on Nile Street near the Presidential Palace on the war's first day, and again, months later, in southern Khartoum — before vanishing from the field and only appearing in pre-recorded video messages. In a speech delivered Tuesday and filmed by a drone camera, Hemedti was flanked by masked guards and standing before thousands of RSF fighters, as he struck a defiant tone toward the military leadership while adopting a more conciliatory stance when speaking about the armed movements fighting against him and toward Egypt. Hemedti expressed a desire to open a new chapter in relations with Egypt, voicing respect for the Egyptian people and emphasizing that disputes should be settled through dialogue. Hemedti has repeatedly accused Egypt of directly participating in military operations against his forces. In May 2024, he told Asharq News that the Egyptian Air Force had targeted RSF troops in the Karrari locality in Omdurman. Later in October, he claimed Egyptian aircraft had bombed his forces at Jebel Moya during the battles that ended in the RSF's defeat. Again in early June 2025, he said Cairo supplied the military with eight aircraft. His call for dialogue comes shortly after the RSF announced control over the strategic border triangle between Sudan, Libya and Egypt in mid-June, describing it as a step toward enhancing security and combating smuggling. Hemedti also pledged to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to conflict-affected areas, saying the RSF would work to secure roads and access routes. Vowing a crackdown on what he described as criminals and outlaws in RSF-held regions, he instructed his troops in different states to enforce order. Among other pledges made during his speech, he promised to pay overdue salaries to RSF fighters. Addressing residents of northern Sudan, where the RSF has expanded its operations in recent weeks, Hemedti insisted that forces deployed in the area included no looters — an implicit response to persistent accusations of abuse against civilians. He also launched a scathing attack on the military, claiming it had been severely weakened and vowing to 'crush what remains' of it. At the same time, he struck a more conciliatory tone toward leaders of armed groups allied with the military — naming Darfur Governor and Sudan Liberation Movement leader Minni Arko Minnawi and JEM's Gibril Ibrahim — saying he would welcome their return to the RSF's side if they chose to do so. *** Sudanese, foreign RSF fighters clash in North Kordofan, civilians flee as RSF raids, loots villages across state Clashes broke out on Monday in the city of Bara, North Kordofan, between Sudanese members of the RSF and foreign fighters aligned with them, resulting in casualties and a sharp deterioration in the area's security situation. Fighting broke out between RSF fighters from the Messiria tribe and a group of mercenaries led by Stephen Buay, the rebel South Sudanese commander, a resident of Bara told Mada Masr. The confrontation was triggered by accusations from Messiria fighters that the foreign mercenaries were sowing chaos and looting civilians, according to the source. Both sides sustained casualties before the RSF commander in the area, Mohamed Abdallah al-Naem, intervened to deescalate the situation, vowing to take action against the perpetrators, the source said. Still, the source described the situation in Bara and its surroundings as chaotic and dangerous, with residents fleeing toward safer areas. On Tuesday, RSF fighters launched a wave of attacks in both northern and southern North Kordofan. To the southwest of Bara, RSF fighters raided and looted several villages, killing or injuring residents who tried to defend their property, a second source from Bara said. The most violent assaults targeted the villages of Sunut and Um Tagar. The same pattern unfolded on the same day in southern North Kordofan, where RSF fighters stormed the villages of Alhagouna and Lamina in Kazgil. According to three local sources, the fighters looted homes and attacked resisting residents, leaving more than 20 civilians killed or wounded. The attacks coincide with RSF expansion in and around Bara on Monday and Tuesday. According to the second source in Bara, RSF units have taken positions in nearby areas including Um Gerfa and Um Sayala. Forces under the command of Ahmed 'Gogga' Adam — who led widespread atrocities in Gezira State and the Gamuia villages south of Omdurman — have been stationed in Um Lahm, outside Bara, and continue to pose a serious threat to local residents. On Wednesday, the RSF announced they regained control of the town of Rahid al-Nuba, which the military had captured two weeks earlier. A field source told Mada Masr that the RSF dispatched 30 combat vehicles carrying troops to Rahid al-Nuba on Thursday in a bid to solidify their hold and block any renewed military advance. Rahid al-Nuba is located along the western Saderat Road, a strategic route the military is working to secure as part of a broader push to reclaim northern parts of North Kordofan. A military source said the military deployed heavy reinforcements in the area on Sunday. *** Tribal rift ignites in RSF after disputed treatment of wounded fighters in West Kordofan Heavy losses sustained by the RSF during their failed attempt last week to seize the military's command center in Babanusa, West Kordofan, have ignited internal tensions within RSF ranks. The fallout from the battle took a distinctly tribal turn that went beyond disagreements, a tribal source told Mada Masr. According to the source, friction has escalated between fighters who are members of the Mahariya clan and the broader Rizeigat tribe on one side, and those from the Messeria tribe on the other, over the treatment of the dozens of wounded fighters after last week's clashes. While injured Mahariya and Rizeigat fighters were transferred to well-equipped hospitals in Daein, Messiria casualties were taken to under-resourced facilities in Muglad and Um Jack. The disparity sparked outrage among the Messiria, who viewed it as a clear act of discrimination. Speaking to Mada Masr, a resident in Muglad described it as a 'double humiliation in a moment of vulnerability.' A source in the General Intelligence Service said the incident reveals the fragility of the RSF's internal structure, which has long relied on precarious tribal alliances. Such divisions could cause the RSF to fracture from within, the source said, triggering defections or rebellions, especially as it comes under mounting military pressure on multiple fronts. Rival armed groups or the military might then exploit such internal unrest to regain territories, according to the source. *** RSF factions launch prison raids in Nyala, South Darfur Fighting broke out this week at two prisons in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur, as RSF groups attempted to free detainees held at the facilities. On Tuesday, clashes broke out between prison guards and RSF units loyal to Major General Essam Fadil — the RSF senior leader who had been detained by the group — at Dagris Prison, southwest of the city, a resident told Mada Masr. The prison houses a significant number of military officers and soldiers captured by the RSF. The assault did not target the location where Fadil is being held. A retired military officer from the Rizeigat tribe, Fadil was reinstated into the RSF several years before the current war erupted. The prison raid came amid deteriorating conditions in Nyala, where the RSF launched a sweeping campaign of arrests targeting both military personnel and civilians suspected of collaborating with the military. According to the source, RSF fighters tried to storm Dagris Prison to release detainees, but guards, bolstered by reinforcements, eventually regained control. Nonetheless, several detainees managed to escape. Simultaneously, another RSF group attacked Nyala's Kobar Prison, leading to the escape of dozens more detainees, the source added. A military source told Mada Masr that Fadil has been held under heavy guard since November 2024, amid declining health. He was accused of communicating with the military and attempting to coordinate a surrender. At the time, Fadil appeared in a video denying he had defected from the RSF. Fadil is regarded as the fourth highest ranking RSF leader after the Dagalo brothers and Operations Commander Osman Mohamed Hamid. Before the war broke out in April 2023, he served as assistant commander for administrative affairs and headed the RSF's committee tasked with combating negative phenomena. In response to the prison attacks, head of the RSF-affiliated civilian administration Youssef Idris announced on Saturday the formation of a committee to investigate the incidents at both the Kobar and Dagris prisons. Idris said that the committee's mandate is limited to establishing the facts surrounding this week's attacks on the two facilities. Meanwhile, Nyala remains gripped by a sharp deterioration in security, as lawlessness and infighting between RSF factions continue to escalate. Caption: Civilians in Nyala flee amid RSF clashes last week. The source in Nyala said that RSF elements have been carrying out widespread looting, arbitrarily detaining civilians on charges of collaborating with the military, and demanding ransoms for their release. They have also been extorting traders and imposing fees on vehicles along main roads. Infighting has spilled into residential neighborhoods, and bodies of both military officers and civilians are left in the streets, according to the source. *** UN Security Council links RSF to cross-border armed activity in Central African Republic As instability deepens along Sudan's RSF-held western border, the UN Security Council directly accused the RSF of collaborating with armed groups near the border with the Central African Republic. In a statement on Tuesday, the council condemned the killing of a UN peacekeeper in a June 20 attack by what it described as 'suspected Sudanese armed elements.' It noted that this marked the third assault on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic since the start of 2025. Council members voiced concern over the implications of Sudan's conflict for the humanitarian and security situation, pointing to 'incursions by the RSF in the territory of the Central African Republic and their cooperation with local armed groups.' The statement also referenced multiple reports of illicit cross-border trafficking networks that 'continue to fund and supply armed groups in the Central African Republic.' The council called for the need to further investigate and combat these threats. Burhan agreed on Friday to a humanitarian truce in Fasher, North Darfur, during a phone call with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. Guterres called on Burhan to declare a one-week humanitarian truce in Fasher to support UN efforts and facilitate aid delivery to thousands of civilians trapped in the besieged city. Burhan agreed to the proposal and stressed the importance of implementing relevant UN Security Council resolutions. The council adopted a resolution in June 2024 that calls for the RSF to end the siege on Fasher, and for the warring parties to ensure the protection of civilians and allow and facilitate 'the rapid, safe, unhindered and sustained passage of humanitarian relief.' The Darfur regional government, in coordination with the military's Sixth Division in Fasher, is preparing to carry out airdrop operations to deliver humanitarian aid, a military source in the division said. North Darfur's Health Ministry General Director Ibrahim Khater also confirmed to Mada Masr that large-scale logistical efforts were underway to deliver relief supplies by air. The truce and renewed aid deliveries come as the humanitarian crisis in North Darfur — particularly in Fasher — continues to deepen. The city has been under a tight RSF siege for months, cutting off supply routes and pushing it to the brink of disaster. Airdrop operations had been suspended after an RSF attack brought down a military aircraft over Fasher in March, according to Khater.
Mada
3 days ago
- Politics
- Mada
Palestinian families secure trucks, humanitarian warehouses, enabling first aid distribution to households in months
Palestinians in northern Gaza received notifications to collect household aid from United Nations warehouses for the first time in months on Thursday, after dozens of trucks carrying vital supplies entered the strip under the protection of clans and families yesterday. The trucks safely reached warehouses operated by the World Food Program (WFP) and other international organizations in Gaza City. The distribution of aid has become a site of tension between Israel and humanitarian organizations in recent months as Israel has imposed a total blockade on Gaza and starvation has become pervasive. Israel initially blocked the most effective aid distribution mechanism — the UN distributing aid via households — sowing chaos at bakeries that were subject to theft and overcrowding. Israel then abetted the theft of trucks leaking the delivery route to thieves and targeting security forces tasked with securing supplies. Then, with humanitarian aid all but choked off, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation — a shady joint venture with ties to American and Israeli intelligence and military figures — had complete sway over distribution. Since the foundation began operations in May, at least 549 people have been killed while attempting to get food in what Palestinians have described as 'aid traps.' The entrance of trucks on Wednesday through the Zikim border crossing came after consultations among northern Gaza's clans and families to ensure the safe passage of the trucks, Hosny al-Mughanny, the head of the Higher Commission for Tribal Affairs, told Mada Masr. Residents were deployed around the Khaldi and Tawam neighborhoods — areas previously targeted by looters. 'We issued instructions to all clans and families in northern Gaza to stand united against the gangs and looters, to spread out in groups in areas where trucks have previously been obstructed and respond firmly to anyone who attempts to come near,' he said. According to Mughanny, a prior meeting had taken place between the commission in northern Gaza and several relief organizations, including the WFP, resulting in an agreement to collaborate to ensure the safe arrival and distribution of aid to storage facilities. Yazan Ahmed and several young men in his family joined the groups protecting Wednesday's convoy. Some climbed onto the trucks, while others formed human chains in locations along the convoy routes. 'Some looters tried to approach the convoy routes, but we immediately dealt with them and forced them to go back to where they came from,' Ahmed told Mada Masr. 'People are literally dying of hunger because of aid thieves. Prices keep rising because they steal the aid and then resell it at exorbitant prices.' The Sahm unit, affiliated with Hamas's security forces and tasked with protecting aid convoys, issued a warning on Wednesday urging residents to stay clear of the trucks. The unit said any interference would be met with force, either by its members or by the clans securing the aid. Following the successful delivery, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to provide a plan within 48 hours to prevent the 'takeover' of aid by Hamas. The order came after Israel halted aid deliveries to Gaza and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to quit the government if immediate action was not taken to stop aid from reaching the group, an unnamed Israeli official told Channel 12. Nahed Shehaiber, the head of the Private Transport Association in Gaza, told Mada Masr that the Israeli military has routinely obstructed the delivery of aid to warehouses by forcing trucks to stop in certain areas, facilitating their looting by armed gangs. While none of the 45 trucks that entered northern Gaza on Wednesday was looted, he said, about 70 trucks let in through the south were intercepted and stripped of their contents by armed gangs in southern Khan Younis. The trucks were intended for WFP warehouses in central Gaza. Shehaiber called for the model implemented in the north to be extended to the south to ensure aid reaches those in need throughout the strip. On Thursday, some residents began receiving messages from international organizations notifying them to collect aid. Adham Hassan said he was contacted by Anera, an international NGO, and instructed to visit their Sheikh Radwan office in northern Gaza City to pick up a bag of flour — the first time he has received such a message in over three months.
Mada
4 days ago
- Politics
- Mada
How Iran may have found a new deterrence mechanism in its war with Israel
Over the course of two years of regional war, Al Jazeera's Doha studio has been the epicenter of television coverage on the turbulent events that have touched nearly every country. Anchors from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, the West Bank and Turkey broadcast world-historic events to the quiet of Qatar, where those events were then rebroadcast to hundreds of thousands across the region who tuned to Al Jazeera from homes, markets and coffee shops to stay abreast of the turmoil. But on Monday night, Al Jazeera itself became the latest news of the war. Its studio in Doha shook as American missile defense systems exploded Iranian rockets over the skies of Qatar: blasts of light and thundering force seen and felt below. The missiles had been fired toward Al-Udeid Air Base, which houses the Qatar Emiri Air Force, United States Air Force, United Kingdom Royal Air Force and serves as the forward headquarters of US Central Command in the region. The Iranian barrage quickly became understood as a symbolic response to the US bombing of three of Iran's nuclear facilities on Sunday. The Iranians had given the Qataris and the Americans prior warning and the base was evacuated. No casualties were reported. But even with the symbolism, it was clear that war had come to the Gulf on Monday night. Iran turned away from Israel and fired at a neighbor. If they could do it once, they could do it again without the courtesy. In the 12 days since the war between Iran and Israel broke out, sources in the Gulf and Iran as well as researchers focused on the region have underlined to Mada Masr the potential for the conflict to spill over into Gulf states. 'If Iran fails to harm military targets and other well-protected sites inside Israel, it may resort to directing its missiles at more vulnerable targets in the Gulf region, especially countries that Iran believes have aided and supported its enemies over the years,' an Iranian diplomat in Turkey told Mada Masr last week. This sat beside repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, the connecting point between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which 21 percent of global maritime oil trade and 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas passed in 2023. Most of that oil and gas originates from Gulf states and provides them with their sizable financial power. But just as quickly as tension seemed to be escalating, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and confirmed that they had agreed to the ceasefire. Adherence so far has been an issue, as reports of continued escalation emerged on Tuesday. Trump waded in with an all caps, shrill post on Tuesday morning to try to prevent the fewer than 12 hours of peace from falling apart: 'ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.' Whether Trump is able to rein in Israel or not, the war has laid bare certain realities of Iran's position in the new regional order that Israel and the US have worked to construct since 2023. And at the center of Iran's survival may very well be a redefined relationship with Gulf states that make up the Abraham wing of the 'New Middle East.' When Israel launched its attack on Iran, it was attacking a new enemy. Over the last two years, Israel has systematically dismantled what once was Iran's deterrence strategy. Iran once boasted a complex web of allies spread out across the region. It had seized opportunities to back conflicts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, with the aim of furthering the ends of those local actors but also to bring them into a complex patronage network collectively known as the axis of resistance. This axis has branded itself as a bulwark against Western imperialism, and, specifically, the spear of that imperial project: Israel. Of course, each of these groups has their own interests and cannot be reduced to the simplistic framing of 'Iranian proxies.' In the last twenty years, fissures in this network and grating pragmatic decisions have damaged the robust comradery of the best days. Hezbollah's support of the Syrian regime alienated it from its wider base and caused issues between Hamas and Tehran. And as Hezbollah faced mounting Israeli aggression in 2023, Iran's intervention was limited. But the deterrence system was meant to address a simple fact: Israel, with a steady supply of US weapons, maintained military supremacy not just over Iran, but after the 1973 war and subsequent pacification of the Egyptian military, over any other military in the region. But since 2023, Israel and circumstance have come together to dismantle this resistance framework. Hamas and Gaza as a whole have been decimated by Israel's genocidal war. Even if the militant group maintains operational power in areas throughout the strip, its ability to force Israel to absorb military attention on the homefront has been greatly diminished. In Lebanon, Israel launched a war at the close of last year and conducted a series of targeted assassinations that left all of Hezbollah's senior leadership dead, including Hassan Nasrallah. A short while after a ceasefire was declared in Lebanon, Turkey sensed an opening to extract territorial gains it had been angling for in northern Syria and gave the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militant group the greenlight to move into Aleppo. What followed was a stunning crumbling of the Assad regime 's forces and the installation of Ahmed al-Sharaa as interim leader of the country. Hezbollah, decimated as it is, has stated it will not engage Israel again and Sharaa has largely adopted a pacifying role toward Israel, even as Tel Aviv bombs the extent of Syria. The last potential deterrent left for Iran, then, has been its goal all along: a nuclear bomb. Speaking to Mada Masr last year, an Iranian diplomat explained that Iran is eager to export its conflict with Israel to other players in the region so they 'bear the brunt of the military, logistical and human' costs, rather than having to shoulder them itself. This outsourcing of its direct conflict with Israel buys Iran more time to advance its drone, ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Iran 'invests in tactical frameworks through international maneuvers and leveraging the global climate to pressure its adversaries to the greatest extent in the stalled negotiations, aiming to realize Iran's aspiration for a nuclear bomb as a true deterrent weapon to prevent any aggression on its territories,' the source added. But according to all accounts, Iran did not have a nuclear weapon yet at the time, despite Israel repeatedly saying it was 'close.' Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action brokered by the administration of former US President Barack Obama, Iran had reduced its stocks of enriched uranium. When Trump pulled out of the deal, Iran began to ramp up the program again. During an unannounced inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2023, officials found that particles of uranium at Fordow had been purified to near weapons-grade purity. But just before the outbreak of the war, Iran was locked in diplomatic talks over reimposing limits on potential nuclear breakout. Thus, with no bomb, no deterrence and the diplomacy track scuttled, Iran had to face Israel's attacks alone. And it was also facing an emboldened Israel set on actualizing what The Economist proudly dubbed 'The New Middle East' last week. Arguing that the ground had shifted under Iran's feet, Economist editor Karl Vick defined the new regional order as one in which all countries make 'common cause with the Jewish state.' Put differently, however, a former Egyptian diplomat working on military affairs defines the new regional order as one in which Tel Aviv is trying to monopolize military might. 'Netanyahu doesn't want anyone in the region that would be close to posing any threat now and for the next 50-80 years. When you look at it from a military point of view, he is incapacitating all military powers,' the former diplomat says. A researcher focused on US policy toward the Middle East explains the regional shift in similarly increasingly polarizing terms. Before 2011, the researcher argues, the region was multipolar, with political and economic power spread out between Turkey, Iran, Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The collapse of Egypt's power due to internal affairs after the 2011 revolution and Saudi Arabia's failure to convert economic power into political power, instead subjecting itself to US supremacy in exchange for protection, saw the Arab component of the balance fall away, the researcher argues. This left Israel increasingly free to weaken the remaining poles in the old regional order. But it also opened a new point of leverage for Iran: America's commitment to be the security guarantor of the entire region. 'The Gulf is in a state of anxiety, no matter how much the Gulf media in some countries tries to hide it,' a source in Kuwait's Parliament told Mada Masr after the US struck Iran's nuclear facilities and Iran stated that the move expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces. Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Middle East Initiative Elham Fakhro, author of the book The Abraham Accords, explains this fear, saying, 'In reality, the Gulf states see a great danger in this war, and their biggest fear is that Iran will target US bases in Gulf states, or commercial ships and vessels, because it has done that in the past.' 'In 2019, after President Trump withdrew from the deal with Iran,' she notes. 'Iran targeted the Gulf states and ships in the Persian Gulf. They are afraid that the same thing will happen, or perhaps even more so, because the situation is more tense than it was in 2019.' But if they were to be attacked, couldn't the Gulf states respond to Iran in kind? For the researcher, the security framework that governs the Gulf fundamentally changed in 2016. 'The United States of America, under the Obama administration, asked Saudi Arabia to be a partner in security. Saudi Arabia rejected the idea and wanted to be protected under the US security umbrella. So they were not interested in being this partner, taking the lead.' the researcher says, adding that the Saudis did not see this protection as an insult, emphasizing that 'they wanted to make this happen.' Fakhro points to much of the same dependence. 'If Iran targets US bases in Gulf states, I expect the reaction to come from the US,' she says. 'I don't expect the Gulf states to enter the war. I think they're making an effort to avoid getting involved and show that they're neutral and not siding with Israel, even though US bases are located in most Gulf states.' This dependence was only further underscored by Trump's lavish trip to Saudi Arabia last month, in which he inked a mega defense pack, says the researcher. 'Last month Trump went to the Middle East, visited Gulf countries and got a lot of money from them. After the attack from Iran, they will definitely ask the US to handle the situation politically, through diplomacy, or, if it's willing to go to war, okay, protect us. You already got paid for this. We want the American security umbrella to work,' the researcher adds. Ultimately, however, Trump was not willing to spend money to join a war in which he would have to protect all Gulf countries from Iran, the researcher argues. 'I believe this is one of the most important aspects that's helped to reach a ceasefire,' he says. Equally important was Iran's threats to close the strait. While approximately 83 percent of the oil transported through the strait passes to Asia — with Asian markets accounting for approximately 69 percent of total oil exports moving through in 2023 — the supply of oil is vital for energy prices globally. If China, the world's largest buyer of Iranian oil, sees a dip in its supply, it will have to look elsewhere. At the end of May, before the outbreak of the war, crude oil was selling for about US$60 per barrel. But as the war started and Iran began to threaten to close the strait, prices began to rise, as did fears in Gulf capitals. An administrative source from the Saudi Energy Ministry told Mada Masr last week that he expects energy prices to continue rising in light of Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, which he considers a hostile act directed at Gulf states and consumer countries that will negatively impact an already-struggling global economy. The energy sector will be the most negatively impacted, especially if the ability of oil-producing countries to export is affected, or if production is disrupted, the source noted. Similarly, an Emirati Energy Ministry source told Mada Masr that while rising oil prices are good for the United Arab Emirates's trade balance, if the war is prolonged, there are concerns of a loss of supplies from the Persian Gulf region, especially the strait, which would lead to a dramatic rise in global oil prices. Adam Hanieh, the author of Crude Capitalism, always saw the closure of the strait as an unlikely outcome, considering it would be a huge escalation given the fact that one-third of the world's seaborne oil flows through the waterway. 'It would have a major impact on oil prices and also affect Iran's own oil exports, so I think any step in that direction would be relatively short-lived,' he tells Mada Masr. If unlikely, there is a violent precedent for closing the strait. Iran attempted to close Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), known at the time as the 'Tanker War.' Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein attempted to invade Iranian territories with US support, including arms and intelligence. Iraq turned the Gulf into an arena for naval engagement, targeting Iranian commercial vessels. Tehran then decided to close the Persian Gulf to ships carrying Iraqi oil regardless of their nationality. This meant targeting Saudi and Kuwaiti tankers, which Iran accused of aiding Iraq in the war. Iranian forces resorted to secretly planting sea mines and using missile attacks. The Tanker War caused billions of dollars in losses, in addition to sinking approximately 223 oil tankers of various nationalities, damaging and sinking approximately 540 commercial tankers and killing approximately 430 sailors, according to a previous report by Al Jazeera. When Iran decided to bomb the airbase in Qatar on Monday night, oil markets let out a collective sigh of relief that Hormuz would stay open, with oil prices falling by 7 percent on Tuesday morning. Now, while the current ceasefire has held despite bumps over the last two days, Iran can say it has found something of a patchwork deterrence mechanism. But that means the question of its nuclear program as a more stable means to defend the regime and rebalance regional order is back in the spotlight. Though the US and Israel have trumpeted that Iran's nuclear program had been 'completely and totally obliterated' by American bunker-busting bombs and a barrage of missiles, quietly the situation is much murkier. While damage at the Fordow nuclear site is still unclear, a preliminary US intelligence report leaked to the press on Tuesday night suggested that the 12-day war had only set Iran's nuclear program back by two months. The biggest issue, however, is that Iran had moved equipment and about 400 kg of uranium from the site in recent weeks. This was acknowledged by US Vice President JD Vance. 'We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that's one of the things that we're going to have conversations with the Iranians about,' Vance told the media, referring to a batch of uranium sufficient to make nine or 10 atomic weapons. How willing Iran will be to hold good faith talks with the US at this point is an open question, however. 'If I try to put myself in Iran's shoes, just coming out of this current war, but also, for instance, comparing the fate of Qadhafi with North Korea, it might encourage them to actually fast forward their nuclear program. That would not necessarily be an irrational assessment,' a Western diplomat formerly based in Iran says. 'The other scenario is to fully go for a diplomatic solution, but there is a big trust issue from 2018, when there was a deal and Iran was, by all [International Atomic Energy Agency] reports, compliant with the deal and the US pulled out. And on top of that, last week, they were negotiating with the US, and then they were attacked first by Israel and then by the US itself. There is a massive trust issue to overcome,' the diplomat continues. 'It's difficult to see, keeping Iran's longer history also in mind, there really is a sense in the country that they've been invaded by Russia. They've been invaded by the UK. I think the 1953 coup against [former Iranian Prime Minister Mohamed] Mosaddegh is still present in the minds of people in politics. And then on top of that, those recent breaches of trust. I don't think they put this aside lightly.'
Mada
5 days ago
- Politics
- Mada
Mada Membership Program
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You just have to sign their email up, so they receive all the communication. You can also gift them the Mada Morning Digest. What are the long-term goals of Mada's membership program? We hope that in the next five years, 50 percent of our financial needs are covered by the Membership Program. Our dream is that down the line, members can form a forum to review our work and propose ways to move forward every year. How do I get involved beyond the membership? If you want to contribute story ideas, you can write to us here. If you have ideas for projects, you can also contact us here. If you would like to offer us advice, consultation or non-financial support, you can contact us here. If you want to receive the Mada Morning Digest, sign up here and if you are interested in our editorial services, contact us
Mada
7 days ago
- Entertainment
- Mada
Plastic Jesus, real devotion
Xenia Nikolskaya's latest photobook Plastic Jesus presents a selection of photographs of Coptic merchandise and architectural interiors from her trips across Egypt between 2003 and 2010. The hardcover book, designed by Omar al-Zo'bi, includes 52 images, an introduction by Adam Makary and a love letter by Nikolskaya herself. The book derives its title from an American folk song — a religious parody about finding temporary solace in a plastic Jesus figurine, which opens with the following verses: I don't care if it rains or freezes long as I have my plastic Jesus glued to the dashboard of my car comes in colors pink and pleasant glows in the dark cause it's iridescent take Him with you when you travel far Nikolskaya's voice rises a pitch when she asks me, 'Have you heard the song Plastic Jesus played by the famous actor in that scene?' I pull up a low-res Youtube video, which I watch a few times on repeat. In the 1967 chain gang drama Cool Hand Luke, a rebellious prisoner who refuses to submit in a Florida prison camp gains the admiration of his fellow inmates with his heroic attempts to escape. Luke, a small town guy, is serving two years of forced labor for breaking off the tops of parking meters, just because there's 'not much to do in the evenin'.' The establishment wants to beat him down, but Luke refuses to let anyone think they've broken his spirit. When he receives a telegram about his mother's death, his cell mates, in a show of respect, silently leave the room one at a time, allowing him to grieve in privacy. Luke sits on a bunk bed and, staring into space, grabs a banjo and sings the popular folk song Plastic Jesus as a requiem for his mother: Get yourself a Sweet Madonna dressed in rhinestone sittin' on a pedestal of abalone shell goin' ninety, I ain't scary 'cause I've got my Virgin Mary assuring me that I won't go to Hell Nikolskaya's reference to the folk song in the title of her latest photobook completes a journey that unfolded over twenty-two years, and which brought her from Russia to Egypt. The book launches in Cairo this month. It comes at a time marked by a dramatic shift in the digital media landscape and the ways in which we engage with images and news stories. What coincides with a volatile global political moment is the possibility for horrific images of war, of detonated bodies, starved children, to be broadcasted live daily and reported by citizen-journalists out of closed military systems. To witness ordinary people forced to become heroes just to survive unimaginable pain under extraordinary conditions makes tangible the saint-like figure we often encounter suspended in the disbelief of fiction or religious scripture. We live in a moment where 'the saint-like heroes are the heroes of war,' as Nikolskaya puts it. In the image of Saint Mark the Evangelist, the first pope of Alexandria, believers see the symbol of a religion born amid the quiet whispers of secrecy. Saint Mark, whose family is said to have been a close companion of Jesus Christ, was himself chosen as one of the Seventy Apostles. He established the first church in Africa and spread Christianity through various places in Eurasia. With the founding of the church in Alexandria, he became the first in an unbroken lineage of Coptic popes. According to Coptic tradition, he was martyred in 68 AD by a mob of Romans who dragged him through the streets for two consecutive days until his death. He was also the first to inaugurate a far grimmer continuity: the steady current of Egyptian martyr-saints. A religion that spread under the threat of persecution would go on to favor concealable everyday objects over large structures to symbolize faith. The images of saints featured on ordinary items are redolent of a decentralized church, they are 'things that you have in your pocket,' Nikolskaya explains, 'in your car, your home. It's not the Cathedral of St. Mark, but for you, it can be as amazing as any of these monuments.' It is the church ever present in your home. Plastic Jesus depicts 42 disposable but sacred artifacts collected, or rather purchased, from Coptic gift shops along various historic monasteries and church complexes down the Nile Delta and Upper Egypt. The photobook is designed as a counter-museum catalogue with local religious figures featured on fridge magnets, pillows lined in faux-fur, mugs, pens, watches, rubik's cubes, smartphone cases — all either laser-cut, carved or printed on variations of silicons, aluminums and plastics. I. Coptic Kitsch Plastic Jesus evokes a nostalgic desire for kitsch objects to counteract the colonial and class biases of 'high' culture. These ordinary artifacts that populate the lives of believers are found in a variety of ever-changing trends in any Coptic gift shop across the country. Essentially, they're keeping a cultural economy alive in rural Egypt, where many of the workshops and factories are found. Coptic-kitsch re-packages ancient imagery for a new generation of consumers (read: believers). The book carries a certain air. It is cool, aloof, and doesn't give a shit if you think these objects are sacred — it tells you they are. The cover is laminated with a Gothic cross in hot pink pasted across an etching of Jesus Christ. Lined in matching pink paper, the book's sober typography and minimal color-scheme are designed to point your attention to the colors, textures and shapes of the 'flamboyant' artifacts in the collection. It asks that we play a game of code-switching, to reconsider these objects, not in their pure materiality, but in the image of what they represent. It doesn't question the sacredness of these objects, but rather celebrates it. It is precisely because they are sacred that Nikolskaya creates a museum-grade catalogue to exhibit them. Visitors in a Coptic church will often lay their hands and kiss icons on the church walls as a symbolic act to connect with a saint via a tactile engagement with their image. The image of a saint, believed to be sacred in the Christian tradition, is an imprint through which, in a collective effort of remembrance, the epic tales of struggle and the saint's attributes are kept alive. As Adam Makary points out in the introductory text, the preservation of sacred emblems is itself a sacramental act and a church duty. The images of saints also serve to reflect something back to believers by evoking their emotions. 'They're handlebars on a long journey,' Nikolskaya says when I ask her what they represent to her. With an almost religious assertiveness, she dedicates the book to 'the people of Egypt,' emphasizing that it is 'made by them for them and for us to truly believe what we believe.' The bold font, all in capital letters, of the dedication text, echoes the graphic intensity of iconic works of contemporary feminist art: the neon-colored posters in Jenny Holzer's 'Inflammatory Essays,' wheat pasted across city streets and Barbara Kruger's 1980s stark slogans in Futura Bold, layered over found imagery. II. Sacred Junk In between a steady stream of softly-lit artifacts in Nikolskaya's Plastic Jesus are spreads of architectural spaces where some of the objects reappear in context. Having first travelled to Egypt in 2003 as an archaeological field photographer with the Russian Egyptological mission, Nikolskaya wryly points to the colonial underpinnings of the field: 'I was often surprised,' she says, 'by the artifacts they chose to save.' She leaves it at that. But her critique surfaces through her architectural photography, which highlights archaeological sites not just as historical locations but as significant spaces that continue to be utilized to this day. The ancient sites are lived-in, even when in the absence of people — they display traces of movement. Rather than kill an artifact in order to preserve it, Nikolskaya engages with the tradition while it is still alive. These plastic trinkets, often dismissed as cheap commercial goods, are seldom included in the corpus of Coptic heritage. But by granting them museum-grade treatment, the book quietly insists that we reconsider them as tangible material of tradition. However the parody, as highlighted in the following verses of Plastic Jesus (the folk song), is that, while sacramental value is often associated with being eternal, cheaply-made things are manufactured in cheap material, which is prone to breakage, wear and tear, and disintegration into microplastics—so, at what point in the breakage of a Jesus figurine does it stop being sacred? Can we dispose of a sacred object and if so, how? Plastic Jesus, Plastic Jesus riding on the dashboard of my car though the sunshine on His back makes Him peel, chip and crack a little patching keeps Him up to par Plastic Jesus, Plastic Jesus riding on the dashboard of my car I'm afraid He'll have to go His magnets ruin my radio and if I have a wreck, He'll leave a scar III. Holy Assemblage Nikolskaya identifies as a secular Christian and places herself in the narrative. She seems driven more by curiosity than a set itinerary through the local landscape. Although she relies solely on natural lighting in her architectural photography, she manages to bring our attention to the stark contrast of colors and meaning. She highlights points of tension in the ancient sites: an electric fan on a bench near an altar in a fourth century monastery; a fluorescent pink satin fabric dripping off an old wooden cupboard against a wall painted in lime green; a digital embroidery of the last supper hanging crookedly above a row of plastic tables, themselves covered in Pepsi-branded tablecloths. 'If the light is there, you have the image,' she says, as if it were so effortless. The photos in Plastic Jesus, in the sheer amount of detail they carry, invite you to indulge in the tense juxtaposition of old and new, holy and mundane, authentic and mass-produced. The book highlights the affective (read: emotional) experience of a niche cultural economy of Coptic-kitsch artifacts, and emphasizes the need for a more nuanced approach to cultural preservation. But in the age of the made-in-China and as we continue to witness the catastrophic effects of microplastics on our environments, wildlife and subaltern communities, the book may leave you wondering: Have we crossed a threshold whereby microplastics are now so enmeshed in the fabric of our lives that they have even become things of eternal sacramental value? If the saints are with us, maybe they're made of plastic. Maybe that's the point.
