Latest news with #CSIS
Indian Express
4 days ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
Shahed: The $50,000 Iranian drone that Russia is using to launch nightly attacks on Ukraine
By the time most Ukrainians go to sleep, they know what's coming. The telltale buzz of propellers cuts through the night. Sirens follow. Explosions, sometimes near, sometimes far. The war in Ukraine, now entering its fourth year, has evolved into a nightly aerial siege—driven not by fighter jets or cruise missiles, but by waves of cheap Iranian-designed drones called Shaheds. On a single night in June, Russia launched 479 long-range drones—most of them Shaheds—toward Ukrainian cities. Since mid-February 2025, when US President Donald Trump publicly pushed for a ceasefire in Ukraine, Russia has averaged over 1,000 drone launches per week, a staggering fivefold increase from the year before, according to analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS.) 'There has not been a single, uninterrupted three-day period without Shahed launches this year,' Yasir Atalan, a CSIS data fellow, told The New York Times. 'Civilians have faced or heard Shaheds almost every night.' The relentless strikes rely on a drone that costs as little as $50,000 to make—about as a BMW M Sport costs in India. The cost to shoot one down? Often more than a million dollars. As James Black of the RAND Corporation put it, 'the advent of cheap commercial drones has sharply tilted the cost asymmetry towards offense.' Shaheds now define a new form of attritional warfare: one where attackers don't just aim to destroy—they aim to exhaust. Originally manufactured in Iran and shipped disassembled to Russia in early 2023, Shaheds are now produced locally in Russian factories. The weapon's design has been tweaked: some units include cameras, others feature improved anti-jamming systems and AI-assisted navigation. Investigations by the Associated Press revealed a Russian initiative, dubbed Operation False Target, to create decoy drones that overwhelm Ukrainian radar systems. The drone itself is crude in appearance but deadly in effect. It looks like a giant black lawn dart, about 11 feet long, with a four-cylinder engine and wooden propeller. The nose holds a warhead, the tail spins the propeller, and the fuselage—sometimes reinforced with honeycombed cardboard between plastic layers—houses off-the-shelf electronics: modems, circuit boards, servo motors, antennas. Many of these components are foreign-made, and easily sourced. Despite their simplicity, Shaheds can fly more than 1,000 miles, often under radar. They're slow and loud, but effective. Britain's Ministry of Defence recently noted that their predictable flight paths make them 'easy to target using conventional air defenses'—yet there simply aren't enough interceptors to keep up. Israel's Iron Dome, Ukraine's NASAMS, and other Western air defences are designed to stop sophisticated missiles. But when Shaheds come in waves of hundreds, defence systems get saturated and very expensive to reload. For Russia, the math is simple. A Shahed costs a fraction of a ballistic missile or cruise missile. An Iskander-M runs upwards of $2 million, and a Kh-101 far more. These more advanced weapons often require jets, ships, or bombers to launch—systems that take years to build and millions more to maintain. Shaheds, by contrast, can be fired from racks welded by someone with basic metalworking skills. And unlike missiles, they don't require elite crews to operate. Ukraine has tried to adapt. Air defences now prioritise more expensive threats. But many Shaheds are not aimed at military targets. They strike power stations, water plants, and residential neighbourhoods. Human Rights Watch and Ukrainian officials say the strikes often violate international laws of war. 'Night after night, Shaheds slam into buildings of no discernible military value,' one official said. Iran, meanwhile, has made drones a pillar of its military and diplomatic strategy. Iranian-made drones, or local variants, have been used not only in Ukraine, but by Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. In June 2025, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel, some of them intercepted, others not. In January 2024, a Shahed drone launched by an Iran-backed militia killed three US service members in Jordan. Though most Shaheds are not autonomous, experts warn that AI integration is rapidly advancing. 'We are now approaching a world where weapons select and engage targets on their own,' said one US defence analyst. The Pentagon defines lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) as systems that, once activated, can 'select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.' Russia and Iran are believed to be exploring similar technologies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that the proliferation of Shahed manufacturing is a global threat. Ukrainian intelligence believes Russia is sharing production techniques with North Korea. 'This must be addressed now,' Zelensky said. 'Not when thousands of upgraded Shahed drones and ballistic missiles begin to threaten Seoul and Tokyo.' With monthly launches now exceeding 4,000, the Kremlin could build up a stockpile of tens of thousands of drones a year, each capable of flying from Russia to the capitals of NATO countries. This shift from large, expensive platforms to swarms of inexpensive, disposable weapons, has reshaped modern warfare. The future isn't armoured tanks or fighter jets. It's low-tech, black-winged, and buzzing overhead at 3 a.m.
Egypt Independent
6 days ago
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
What are Patriot missiles and why does Ukraine need them so badly?
CNN — US President Donald US President Donald Trump's announcement that Ukraine will receive Patriot missile systems as part of a new package of US weaponry has been warmly welcomed in Kyiv as it reels under nightly Russian bombardments. President Volodymyr Zelensky has made repeated requests for Patriots in recent weeks as Moscow sends record numbers of drones and missiles to cause havoc and fear in Ukrainian cities and towns. But there were few specifics in Trump's announcement, and major questions remain over how many Ukraine will receive, when they will arrive, and who will provide them. Here's what we know about the vaunted US missile defense system: Top of the range The Patriots, short for Phased Array Tracking Radar for Intercept on Target, are the US Army's key missile defense system. They most recently proved their worth last month, when they helped shoot down 13 out of 14 incoming Iranian missiles that were launched at the US Air Force's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The latest versions of Patriot interceptors are capable of engaging incoming short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at altitudes up to 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) and distances of up to 35 kilometers. Analysts say that gives a single Patriot battery the ability to cover 100 to 200 square kilometers of area, depending on how many launchers are in the battery, local terrain and other conditions. That's not a large area in a country the size of Ukraine, at more than 603,000 kilometers in total area. Hence, Kyiv's need for multiple new Patriot batteries. US soldiers walk next to a Patriot missile defense battery during joint exercises at the military grounds in Sochaczew, Poland on March 21, 2015. Agencja Gazeta/Reuters A battery consists of six to eight missile launchers, each capable of carrying up to 16 interceptors, along with a phased-array radar, a control station, a power generation station – all mounted on trucks and trailers. About 90 people are assigned to a Patriot battery, but only three soldiers in the command and control center can operate it in a combat situation, according to US military reports. Hefty price tag A Patriot battery is expensive, with the complete setup of launchers, radars and interceptor missiles costing more than a billion dollars, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A single interceptor costs up to $4 million, making their use against cheap Russian drones that can cost as little as $50,000 problematic, according to a CSIS report – especially when Russia is sending hundreds of drones a night in recent attacks on Ukraine. In regards to the latest transfer, US officials said Patriots could get to Ukraine quicker if they were moved from European NATO allies to Ukraine, with those then being replaced by systems bought from the US. Trump said some or all of 17 Patriot batteries ordered by other countries could get to Ukraine 'very quickly,' according to a Reuters report. According to the 'Military Balance 2025' from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, six NATO allies – Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Spain – have Patriot batteries in their arsenals. No silver bullet NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Monday that several nations – including Germany, Finland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway – could be potential suppliers of the new equipment, but did not specifically mention the Patriots as coming from those countries. There has been concern inside and outside the military that US Patriot inventories may be stretched too thin. 'It is our most stressed force element,' Gen. James Mingus, vice chief of staff of the Army, told a dialogue at the CSIS earlier this month. He noted the Patriot unit in Qatar that helped defend the Al Udeid air base had been deployed to the Middle East for 500 days, Mingus said, a 'very stressed force element.' Ukraine has said it needs 10 new Patriot batteries to protect itself against Russia's increased onslaught of missiles and drones. Kyiv has already received six fully operational Patriot batteries – two from the US, two from Germany, one from Romania and one jointly given by Germany and the Netherlands, according to the UK-based arms monitoring group Action on Armed Violence. Analysts say Patriots alone can't end Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Wesley Clark, a retired US Army general and former NATO supreme commander, told CNN's Lynda Kinkade on Monday that the for the arms package to have real effect on the battlefield, it would have to include more than air defense systems. 'If you want to really stop this, you've got to strike Russia and you've got to strike deep,' Clark said. 'you have to shoot the archer and not the arrows coming in.' CNN's Kevin Liptak contributed to this report
Newsweek
6 days ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Can Trump's Patriot Missiles Help Ukraine Turn the Tide Against Russia?
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The United States will send additional Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine, part of a European Union–funded deal intended to bolster Kyiv's defenses against intensifying Russian missile and drone attacks and coming as President Donald Trump is voicing increased frustrations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Sunday, Trump confirmed that Patriots "which they desperately need" would be sent, paid for "100 percent" by European allies. Trump, returning to Washington from New Jersey, added pointedly: "He [Putin] talks nice and then he bombs everybody in the evening. I don't like it." Trump is expected to announce further measures on Russia in meetings with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and lawmakers this week. Germany has already agreed to finance at least two Patriot batteries, and Norway reportedly joined in funding additional units. Ukraine currently operates a small number of Patriots donated during the Biden administration but has pleaded for more to defend critical infrastructure and population centers. This photograph taken during sunset on March 6, 2025 shows Patriot air defence systems installed at the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, a logistics hub for US and European military aid to Ukraine, in Jasionka, south-eastern Poland. This photograph taken during sunset on March 6, 2025 shows Patriot air defence systems installed at the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, a logistics hub for US and European military aid to Ukraine, in Jasionka, south-eastern Poland. Photo by Sergei GAPON / AFP) (Photo by SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images What is the Patriot system? Developed by Raytheon Technologies, the MIM-104 Patriot—short for Phased Array Tracking Radar for Intercept on Target—is a mobile surface-to-air missile (SAM) system designed to intercept aircraft, cruise missiles, drones and tactical ballistic missiles. A valuable defensive weapon, a typical Patriot battery consists of radar and control units, power supply, launchers and support vehicles. The system has evolved since its debut in the 1980s. Early PAC-2 missiles used blast-fragmentation warheads, while newer PAC-3 missiles employ a hit-to-kill mechanism for greater accuracy. Depending on the configuration, the Patriot can engage targets up to 100 miles away at altitudes exceeding 14 miles. Those capabilities don't come cheap. Each battery costs about $1.1 billion, with individual interceptors running $4 million apiece, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 'Not a game changer by itself' Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser at CSIS, told Newsweek the major effect of the U.S.-EU deal is intended to be more political than tactical — pressuring Moscow to enter ceasefire negotiations, which Trump emphasized during his press conference. "The amounts are significant — Trump talked about 'billions of dollars' — but it will take months for the packages to be put together," Cancian said. "I expect announcements of equipment packages of several hundred million dollars every few weeks." He cautioned that the focus on the Patriot system is disproportionate to its battlefield impact. "There is too much focus on Patriot. It's an important capability but designed to defend against ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. About 10 percent of Russia's attacking missiles are in those categories," Cancian said. "Most of the attacks come from the low-technology suicide drones. For these, Ukraine needs a wide variety of air defense systems, which will likely be in the packages." In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Service, firefighters put out the fire following Russia's drones attack in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, April 16, 2025. In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Service, firefighters put out the fire following Russia's drones attack in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, April 16, 2025. AP Cancian stressed that Ukraine's needs extend far beyond air defenses. "It also needs weapons, munitions, and supplies across the board since its armies in combat go through these at a high rate," he said. The EU deal is meant to show the West's united front against Russian aggression, to force Moscow to "participate in ceasefire negotiations," he said. "But the real battlefield need is broader — Ukraine needs a wide range of air defenses for the drones and low-cost attacks they face daily, and they need weapons, munitions, and supplies of all kinds. Patriot is important, but it is not a game changer by itself." Why is the U.S. sending more aid now? Trump's decision to broker the EU deal reflects both a response to Ukraine's urgent pleas and his own frustrations with Putin's continued escalation in spite of White House efforts to bring him to the negotiating table. As Trump himself said: "We're not paying anything for them... but we will get them Patriots." The announcement also reverses a months-long freeze on U.S. weapons shipments to Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told reporters after meetings with European leaders that he had received "all necessary political signals" for aid to resume and described his dialogue with Trump as "constructive and very positive." The German government confirmed that Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will meet U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week to finalize details of the Patriot transfers, amid Berlin's continued refusal to send its long-range Taurus missiles over fears of escalation on European soil.
Indian Express
14-07-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
Forty years after Kanishka bombing, India stands firm in war on terror
Written by Gurveer Singh Brar Standing by the windswept shores of Ahakista in Ireland, where the debris of Air India Flight 182 fell on June 23, 1985, I felt the weight of history and humanity converge. The Kanishka bombing, which stole 329 innocent lives, is not just a chapter in aviation history; it is a solemn reminder of how terrorism devastates families, communities, and nations alike. This year we marked the 40th anniversary of this tragedy in Ahakista. I was part of an official Indian delegation led by Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, supported seamlessly by the Ministry of External Affairs. This was to not merely observe a date, but to reaffirm our collective promise: India will always honour its people, no matter how far they are or how many years have passed, and will continue to seek justice until it is delivered. As I stood before the memorial, watching a local Irish resident place a white rose on the plaque, I was reminded that the power of shared grief transcends borders, turning remembrance into a bridge of empathy between nations. It was deeply moving to see how Ireland, despite not having a single citizen on that flight, built and continues to maintain this memorial. It is a reminder of the collective responsibility we share in standing against terrorism. During the commemoration, Ireland's Prime Minister Micheál Martin described the Kanishka bombing as a 'cruel and horrific' act of terror, reminding us that 'the passage of time does not dim the scale of this loss'. His words reflected how this tragedy has fostered a deepened bond between India, Ireland, and Canada in the collective fight against terrorism. Echoing this sentiment, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described the Air India bombing as 'the deadliest terrorist attack in our country's history', reaffirming Canada's commitment to stand firmly against violent extremism. The Kanishka bombing was not an accident but a deliberate act of terrorism, carried out by extremist elements. It is a significant moment that Canada's intelligence agency, CSIS, now publicly recognises Canada-based Khalistani extremism as a real and growing national security threat and not merely a foreign concern. This acknowledgment aligns with India's longstanding position that terrorism must be confronted with unwavering resolve, wherever it arises. As Canada's UN envoy Bob Rae stated at the memorial, 'Canadians need to know that the bomb was placed in Canada, and this act of terror must be etched deeply into Canadian history.' His words underscore the shared responsibility of nations to transform remembrance into a call for accountability and collective action. As Minister Puri aptly stated during the commemoration, the Kanishka bombing was 'a crime against humanity'. This convergence of voices and acknowledgments strengthen India's call for global cooperation to dismantle terror networks and eliminate the support systems that sustain extremist violence. It transformed our presence in Ahakista from a solemn tribute to a clear stand for global justice and a shared commitment to preventing such tragedies in the future. As India moves forward under the New India vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, we remain steadfast in our commitment to treating terrorism as an act of war on humanity and leading with clarity and courage in dismantling its networks wherever they exist. The recent terror attack in Pahalgam serves as a stark reminder of the urgency of unified global action. The delegation to Ireland, with its strong Sikh representation, was a testament to the immense contributions of the Sikh community to India's strength, unity, and culture of 'sewa'. Sikhism has always stood for courage, equality, and service to humanity — from langars feeding millions globally, to serving in our armed forces, where Sikhs form over 12 per cent of the personnel despite being less than 2 per cent of the population, and leading humanitarian efforts worldwide. Those promoting separatism in the name of Sikhism do not represent the spirit of a community that has always chosen nation-building over division. As we move forward, we carry within us the vision of a New India — an India that is resilient, compassionate, and committed to peace, echoing the words of PM Modi that 'India will not tolerate terrorism, and will not spare those who support terror.' The remembrance of Kanishka is a reminder of the cost of silence and inaction, urging us to transform memory into resolve and to build a world where justice and humanity prevail, ensuring such tragedies are never repeated. The writer is a BJP MLA from Sadulshahar, Rajasthan
Daily Mail
09-07-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
How China's arsenal of weapons could be a threat to the US
It looks like a regular shipping container, loaded aboard a cargo ship sailing up Mexico's west coast from the Chinese-run mega-port at Manzanillo. But beneath the corrugated steel lurks a cruise missile launcher and a fleet of combat drones, ready to unleash hellfire in a surprise attack on US bases in California. No, this isn't the start of a doomsday war movie — it's one of the nightmare scenarios in a report from America's top defense think tank. And it's keeping Pentagon chiefs awake at night. The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) says China has quietly seized control or influence over 37 major seaports across Latin America and the Caribbean. That's nearly three times as many as were previously known about. This covert network spans the region and gives Beijing the power to spy on US military activity, choke off vital shipping lanes, and even launch a surprise military strike on American soil. Many of the ports are owned, operated, or financed by Chinese state-owned companies with close ties to the Communist Party and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Officials in Beijing insist they are for trade and development, but experts warn the real motive is control, surveillance, and strategic dominance. Henry Ziemer, a CSIS expert on South America, says China's ports are 'black boxes.' Beijing can wield its influence to 'delay investigations into particular cargo shipments and hide anything from a cruise missile to weaponized drones,' Ziemer told the Daily Mail. 'They can keep them until the time is right to trigger the maximal attack.' China's mission to the UN and the Pentagon did not answer our requests for comment. At first glance, the Chinese investments in the Americas are economic — Beijing gets access to corn, sugar, soybeans and other exports and reduces its reliance on the US. In return, Latin America and the Caribbean governments get investment and know-how in upgrading their ramshackle infrastructure. But the CSIS report shows the pattern is more widespread and dangerous than was understood. Through these ports, China can also monitor maritime traffic, collect sensitive data on US military and commercial shipping, and expand its leverage over fragile democracies. Chinese involvement in Panama's ports has already attracted the ire of the Trump administration, thanks to their proximity to the Panama Canal. President Donald Trump in February announced plans to 'take back' US control of the canal, citing Beijing's clout in a route for 40 percent of US container traffic each year. But CSIS researchers say there are bigger threats along Latin America's coastline, and highlight the port of Kingston, in Jamaica It is fully controlled by the state-owned China Merchants Port Holdings, lies close to US military bases, and gives Beijing influence in a historic US ally, says the report. Chinese firms also run Mexican ports at Veracruz and Manzanillo, meaning they could disrupt shipping to US ports worth $193 million every day, says CSIS. Beijing is not likely to start a military build-up at its ports for an attack on the US right away, researchers said — as that would risk a geopolitical crisis. But they could be putting stealth weapons in place for sneaky strikes in the future, says Ziemer. Chinese defense firms have been hiding cruise missile launch systems in ordinary container units since at least 2016. More recently, they've experimented with drones, which can be packed into freight holds ready for a surprise attack. That's how Ukraine destroyed warplanes in eastern Russia and Israel launched surprise attacks on Iranian nuclear sites in June. The prospect echoes the Cuban Missile Crisis, but this time it may not involve conspicuous missile silos — just an unassuming red container marked 'Huawei Electronics' or 'State Grid Tools.' Though a conflict between Washington and Beijing looks far off , a Chinese assault on Taiwan could come sooner than expected and spill over into a wider conflict. Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly wants his forces to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 in a move that could draw a fierce American response and kickstart World War III. Until then, experts say Beijing will use their ports to control supply chains , gather intelligence, and amass diplomatic clout in the hemisphere. 'We should assume that the Chinese military will try to use many of these ports as military nodes,' Gabriel Noronha, a former State Department advisor and president of Polaris National Security, told the Daily Mail. 'To monitor US assets or even use them to smuggle their own assets in to attack US vessels and forces.' Of the 37 ports identified in the CSIS study, 10 are owned or operated by Chinese firms — seven of them alone by the Hong Kong–based holdings company CK Hutchison. Others feature Chinese-made cranes, cargo scanners and other gear that can be used for nefarious purposes, says CSIS. Cranes made by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries can gather and transmit sensitive data and could be used to disrupt ports during a crisis . Likewise, cargo scanners made by state-owned Nuctech can gather sensitive biometric, logistical, and trade data, and beam it back to Beijing. The US federal government has banned them, but they're common across Latin America and the Caribbean. China's growing influence in South American ports became impossible to ignore in November, when President Xi inaugurated Chancey, a deep-water mega-port in Peru. Carlos Gimenez, the Florida Republican who chairs the Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security, warned of deals in Cuba, Peru, Brazil, and Ecuador. 'The Chinese Communist Party has no rightful place in shaping the economic and security landscape of our region,' Gimenez said. Many of the projects are funded with opaque loans from Chinese state banks, often locking smaller nations into long-term debt dependency. In many cases, China insists on control over port operations, technology systems, or security procedures. This gives Beijing enormous soft power — the ability to pressure governments, silence criticism, and extract favors, all while expanding its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into the Western Hemisphere. CSIS researchers say the Trump administration should take the threat seriously and act before it's too late. US firms should buy up ports, and American diplomats should nudge allies to keep tabs on their Chinese investors and any suspect cargo. A looming $23 billion deal that would see Hutchison sell 43 of its overseas ports, including the seven across Latin America and the Caribbean, to a consortium led by US-based BlackRock, would limit China's reach. But Beijing has objected to the deal, and China's state-owned COSCO Shipping is vying for a stake. 'If the BlackRock deal goes through it would significantly decrease the risk, but it would not go to zero,' says Ziemer. 'The ports would still operate the cranes and scanners that can transmit data back to Beijing.' With Chinese influence creeping ever closer to US shores — and potentially docking inside its own ports — the once-theoretical threat of a global confrontation is becoming frighteningly real.
