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Irish Daily Mirror
2 days ago
- Climate
- Irish Daily Mirror
New Ireland weather maps turn dark blue as expert makes dire prediction
A week is long time where Irish weather is concerned. This time last week, most of us were basking in near 30°C heat, warm sunshine and cool sea breezes. And as beautiful the weather is in Ireland sometimes, it's almost never consistent. While it's currently still warm and muggy, the long hours of sunshine have all but disappeared and if Met Eireann are to be believed, it looks like things will get progressively worse over the coming days. New weather maps published by on Friday showed larges swathes of blue above Ireland on Saturday. The blue sections on the map denote rainfall. According to the charts, the heaviest of the rain is expected in the south of the country. One Ireland based weather expert, Alan O'Reilly, from the ever reliable Carlow Weather, made a dire prediction on X (formerly Twitter) on Friday morning. Alan warned against the possibility of "heavy rain" across parts of Ireland over the weekend but there was good news for people living in the north. "A cloudy Friday but only the odd shower and a few bright spells will develop later," posted Alan. He continued: "Saturday will see heavy rain move into the South around lunchtime and over 20mm is possible Saturday in Southwest. Northern areas will escape most of it though." Alan's warning comes only hours after he flagged how different weather models made alternative rainfall predictions for the weekend. "Lot of uncertainty around rainfall forecast over next few days, the ECMWF model that Met Éireann app/site uses for beyond next 2 days shows a lot of rain but GFS model that some other apps and sites use shows a lot less. So if you are seeing a difference that is why," said Alan. Saturday night: Showery outbreaks of rain will continue to slowly extend northwards over much of the country, reaching northern areas towards morning as drier and clearer conditions develop in the south. Lowest temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees in moderate cyclonic variable winds Sunday: A mix of sunny spells with showers or showery outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with possible thunderstorms, especially in the north. It will be driest generally in southern areas. Highest temperatures of 17 to 22 degrees with moderate cyclonic variable winds easing light westerly through the day Sunday night: Largely dry in the south at first with clear spells. Showery outbreaks of rain in the north, heavy at times with the continued possibility of thunderstorms will gradually extend southwards. Lowest temperatures of 8 to 13 degrees in mostly light northwesterly breezes Monday: Rather cloudy with further showers or showery outbreaks of rain, heaviest and most persistent in the south with further thunderstorms possible. Later in the day, showers will ease for many with some sunny spells breaking through. However, it will remain mostly cloudy and wet in the north. Highest temperatures of 16 to 21 degrees, coolest for Atlantic areas with moderate, occasionally fresh westerly winds developing. Tuesday: Frequent showers or longer spells of rain will continue to affect the north and northwest through the day. Further south there will be sunny spells and well scattered showers. Highest temperatures of 15 to 19 degrees generally in mostly moderate westerly winds. Further outlook: Current indications suggest the following days will be mixed but with more in the way of dry intervals. Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest news from the Irish Mirror direct to your inbox: Sign up here.
BBC News
10-07-2025
- Climate
- BBC News
Reading weather centre to be at the forefront of climate change
A university's plan for a European weather centre headquarters has begun and is due to be complete in autumn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) will be located next to the University of Reading's Department of facility will be home to up to 300 scientists to support world-leading work on all aspects of weather prediction systems, forecast production, and research into climate of Reading's Vice-Chancellor, Professor Robert Van de Noort said: "It will benefit everyone in having better forecasts and being able to act on those forecasts more quickly. " Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez at the University of Reading explained that the new building will cover more than medium range which is two to 14 said: "They run models out into the sub-seasonal range, out to maybe six weeks ahead, and even on the seasonal time scale."It will be looking at the seasonal outlook, what can we predict the winter is going to be like if we're making a forecast in November, for example.""There's already a move to quantify how much these heat waves cause excess deaths," he the world warms up, he said "it's ever more important we know what's coming down the track to keep people safe". The science minister Lord Vallance said it would bring 300 of the country's best climate experts into the one place. He said: "This is exactly the sort of really world-class activity that we ought to have in the UK. "A point reinforced by Professor Robert Van de Noort: "Bringing all these scientists onto the campus will allow them to work even more closely with the academics we already have here."I think that will benefit everyone in having better forecasts and being able to act on those forecasts more quickly. " The recent floods in America, in which more than a hundred people died, show the importance of early weather warnings. The university's climate expert Hannah Cloak said "we need to be better prepared for them." She said: "Floods in Texas have really brought that home in the last few days haven't they and of course next week we're going to have a heat wave.""Within the next two years I can see us really transforming the way that we do meteorological science."We're going to make some great breakthroughs, I think, in being able to forecast floods better, more accurately and in good time so we can help get people out of the way of those floods." You can follow BBC Berkshire on Facebook, X (Twitter), or Instagram.
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
How accurate is Google's new AI hurricane forecast model?
Jeff Berardelli is WFLA's Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA)—A few weeks ago, Google DeepMind and Google Labs released their new AI hurricane model to the public. The Google team claims its AI model performs better than traditional hurricane models on both track and intensity forecasts. We will examine the accuracy claims more closely, but first, let's discuss what this AI model is. This AI model is not a traditional physics-based model like the ECMWF (European) or the GFS (American) model. Models like the ECMWF (European) use numerical weather prediction, solving fluid dynamics, thermodynamics, and radiation equations on a high-resolution global grid. This requires immense computational resources and supercomputer infrastructure. Just one run can take several hours for the supercomputers to finish. (It is worth mentioning that ECMWF also has an AI model) The Google AI Model is built on a trained neural network, which mimics the human brain, that can make inferences almost instantly after training. It learns from decades of vast historical weather data – essentially doing very advanced pattern recognition, thus it outputs forecasts without solving the complex differential equations of physics. So the process takes just a minute to complete a 15-day forecast. Just like the ECMWF (European) model, Google's AI model produces 50 ensemble members. The ensemble members are solutions that are each slightly perturbed. Think of it as a family of solutions rather than just one track and intensity. Google claims that in tests for 2023–24 storms in the North Atlantic and East Pacific, its 5-day track forecasts were ~85 miles closer to actual tracks than ECMWF's ENS ensemble and their AI model outperformed NOAA's best intensity model – the HAFS model – on intensity forecasts, matching or exceeding high-resolution physics-based accuracy. We took Google's AI model for a spin and looked into the results for our two most impactful storms last year – Helene and Milton – and found that on track forecasts, a few days ahead of time, the model did extremely well. In both cases, the Google AI model was just miles away from the actual track. See the comparison below. It should be noted that in both of these cases, the track was pretty straightforward, with many models in the ballpark of the actual track. Still, the Google AI results are very impressive. On intensity forecasts, however, the results were not quite as spot on. They were decent in Helene, but way under-forecast the strength in Milton. You can compare the results below. To be fair, intensity forecasting is much harder than track forecasting. To truly be able to judge the accuracy of the Google AI model – or any model – we need lots more data. So, this 2025 hurricane season, we will monitor the model to see how it performs. We will post the model and also show it on WFLA-TV when storms threaten. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Can AI help create more accurate hurricane forecasts?
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Google unveiled its AI-driven Weather Lab last month, giving forecasters another research tool to predict the intensity and path of tropical cyclones. The supercomputers running traditional hurricane models use numerical weather prediction rooted in physics, solving complex equations. A single run can take several hours to complete. How accurate is Google's new AI hurricane forecast model? The scientists behind AI models, like Google's and the ECMWF's, promise accurate forecasts at a fraction of the time and energy spent on computation. Google's AI model takes about a minute to complete a 15-day forecast. The Google AI model is built on a neural network that mimics the human brain. It is trained on decades of weather data and uses what is essentially advanced pattern recognition to produce a number of outcomes. Google claims its AI model is 'as accurate as, and often more accurate than, current physics-based methods.' WFLA's Max Defender 8 Weather Team put its accuracy to the test and found that the Google AI model's track predictions for hurricanes Helene and Milton were just miles off from the storms' actual paths. It should be noted that with both of these storms, the track was pretty straightforward, with many models in the ballpark of the actual track. Google's intensity forecast, however, missed the mark for Hurricane Milton and under-forecast the major storm's strength during our test. Hurricane models, AI or otherwise, can struggle with accurately predicting intensity. Google is partnering with experts at the National Hurricane Center to scientifically validate the model's approach and outputs. 'NHC expert forecasters are now seeing live predictions from our experimental AI models, alongside other physics-based models and observations,' a Google news release said. 'We hope this data can help improve NHC forecasts and provide earlier and more accurate warnings for hazards linked to tropical cyclones.' On this edition of Tracking the Tropics, National Hurricane Center Science Operations Officer Dr. Wallace Hogsett sat down with our team to answer viewer questions about how AI factors into the NHC's research and forecasts. You can watch it in the video player above. As for the tropics, all is quiet in the Atlantic, with no tropical activity expected in the next seven 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Irish Sun
07-07-2025
- Climate
- The Irish Sun
‘Hottest spell of weather' in YEARS as Met Eireann issue 28C heatwave forecast & pinpoint best day amid Azores high
MET Eireann has confirmed that temperatures could hit a sizzling 28C in just a few days as Ireland braces for the impact of Europe's heatwave. Temperatures soared as high as 46.6C across the continent as a blistering heatwave closed schools, workplaces and recorded multiple deaths last week. Advertisement 5 Temperatures will be even hotter today and later during the week Credit: Getty Images 5 Ireland is forecast to reach highs of 28C this week Credit: Meteologix And Met Eireann confirmed Ireland is next on the list for hot conditions. Cathal Nolan from Ireland's Nolan said warm temperatures will return with isolated light showers in some parts of the country this week, starting from today. He said: "This morning the ECMWF model has come into alignment with the GFS, that Ireland is about to experience its hottest spell of weather so far this year with summer like conditions developing through the second half of next week, peaking through next weekend." Advertisement READ MORE ON WEATHER He revealed that temperatures by the middle of the week reach into the mid-20s, while some parts of the country will see temperatures reach up to 30C by the weekend. Cathal added: "It's always worth mentioning a word of caution when analysing weather models more than five days in advance, so changes are possible. "But there's growing confidence that we are about to experience our hottest spell of weather since 2022, with some areas possibly experiencing Advertisement MOST READ ON THE IRISH SUN Exclusive Exclusive Meteorologist Siobhan Ryan said that there will be some "patchy rain" today as warm weather makes its comeback. Watch moment funnel cloud spotted near busy Irish town as 'multiple' confirmed Today, July 7, started dry for most of the country with warm spells of sunshine, but it will be cooler and cloudier across west Connacht and Ulster with "some light showers". Temperatures will reach highs of 14C to 23C, and it will be warmest across southeast and east areas. Siobhan said: "Now similarly, tonight will bring a little patchy rain or a few showers to west and northwest areas. Advertisement "Dry for most, however, with clear spells across the south and east, and that's all with lows of 9C to 13C in a light to moderate west to northwest wind. " Tomorrow will be humid with patchy outbreaks of drizzle, warm spells of sunshine are expected to occur, especially across Munster and the south Midlands. She added: "A humid day as well with highs of 17C to 24C, and that comes with a light to moderate west to northwest wind. "Now beyond that, it looks like high pressure will build from the Azores, bringing largely settled weather for the week ahead. Advertisement "And the night will bring patchy drizzle to the west and northwest counties, but otherwise dry under broken cloud with mild conditions with the lowest temperature of 11C to 15C. "There will be just a little patchy drizzle at times in over some western fringes, but overall we're looking at day on day, the temperatures trending upwards, and more in the way of sunshine." HOTTEST DAY REVEALED She added: "Now beyond that, it looks like high pressure will build from the Azores, bringing largely settled weather for the week ahead." "In fact, towards later this week, values will climb to the mid 20s widely, and they could even reach higher values with some very warm or hot conditions on the way." Advertisement The weather expert said that Friday is set to experience a "very warm or hot continental airmass" to feed up across Ireland with sunny conditions occurring widely. Friday is currently forecast to be the hottest day of the week, with temperatures expected to blaze between 22C and 28C. The second hottest day of the week will be Thursday, another dry day for most with warm spells of sunshine. Temperatures will reach highs of 21C to 26C in just light southwest or variable breezes. Advertisement 5 Ireland has been warned to brace for heat Credit: Meteologix 5 Most northern, western and central European countries are set to experience the heatwave Credit: Ireland's weather channel 5 Ireland is set to see its 'hottest spell of weather' since 2022 this week Credit: AG News/Alamy Live News
