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Mint
14 minutes ago
- Business
- Mint
Markets trade deal euphoria ignores tariff reality: McGeever
(Repeats story published earlier. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) ORLANDO, Florida, July 24 (Reuters) - The optimism sweeping world stock markets following news of emerging and expected U.S. trade deals is undeniable and understandable. But it is also puzzling. The S&P 500, Britain's FTSE 100 and the MSCI All Country index have powered to new highs this week, and other global benchmarks are not far behind. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and other big banks have recently been raising their year-end S&P 500 forecasts by as much as 10%. The catalyst is clear: baseline tariffs on imported goods into the U.S. will be much lower than the duties President Donald Trump had threatened previously. It emerged this week that the levy on Japanese goods will be 15%, not 25%, and indications are that a deal with the European Union will land on 15% too. That's half the rate Trump had threatened to impose. Suddenly, the picture is nowhere near as bleak is it looked a few months ago. Economists reckon that the final aggregate U.S. tariff rate will settle around 15-20% once deals with Brussels and Beijing are reached, a level markets are betting won't tip the economy into recession. This suggests that Trump's seemingly chaotic strategy – threaten mutually assured economic destruction, extract concessions and then pull back to limit the market damage – is paying off. But will it? Despite the market euphoria, the fact remains that on December 31 last year, the average aggregate U.S. tariff on imported goods was around 2.5%. So even if that ends up in the anticipated 15-20% range, it will still be at least six times what it was only a few months ago, and comfortably the highest it has been since the 1930s. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates that tariff revenues this year could reach $300 billion, which is the equivalent to around 1% of GDP. Extrapolating last year's goods imports of $3.3 trillion to next year, a 15% levy could raise close to $500 billion, or just over 1.5% of GDP. So who will pick up that tab? Is it the U.S. consumer, importers or the overseas exporters? Or a mixture of all three? The likelihood is it will mostly be split between U.S. consumers and companies, squeezing household spending and corporate profits. Either way, it's hard to see how this would not be detrimental to growth. We may not know for some time, as it will take months for the affected goods to come onshore and get onto U.S. shelves and for the tariff revenues to be collected. "We've got a ways to go before we can really say the U.S. economy is feeling the full effect of the tariff policies being announced," Bob Elliott, a former Bridgewater executive and founder of Unlimited, told CNBC on Wednesday. But in the meantime, equity investors appear to be ignoring all of this. The market's short-term momentum is clear. The S&P 500 has closed above its 200-day moving average for 62 days in a row, the longest streak since 1997, according to Carson Group's Ryan Detrick. And the 'meme stock' craze is back too, another sign that risk appetite may be decoupling from fundamentals. Indeed, markets are priced for something approaching perfection. The consensus S&P 500 earnings growth for next year is 14%, according to LSEG I/B/E/S, barely changed from 14.5% on April 1, just before Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff salvo. Even the 2025 consensus of around 9% isn't that much lower than 10.5% on April 1. A Reuters poll late last year showed a 2025 year-end consensus estimate for the S&P 500 of 6,500. The index is nearly there already, and is trading at roughly the same multiple as it was on December 31, a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22. Can these lofty expectations be supported by an economy whose growth rate next year is expected to be 2% or less? Possibly. But it will be a challenge for most firms, with the exception of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants whose size might better shield them from tariffs or slowing growth. Ultimately, this is all a huge experiment pitting protectionist trade policy and Depression-era tariffs against the economic orthodoxy of the past 40 years. And it's yet another example of equity investors' ability to find the silver lining in almost anything. As Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says: "'It could have been worse' is not a good foundation for a market rally". (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) (By Jamie McGeever. Editing by Mark Potter)
Economic Times
an hour ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Goldman goes 'Neutral' on Trent, stock declines 4%
Mumbai: Shares of Trent, Tata Group's fashion retail chain, fell nearly 4% on Thursday after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from 'buy' to 'neutral' and cut its price target by 21%, citing concerns over slowing sales and higher-than-expected growth concerns in Zudio stores. The brokerage's new price target of ₹5,500, implies an upside of 6.7% over Thursday's close of ₹5,148. ADVERTISEMENT Zudio, Trent's value fashion chain, has been a key growth engine, expanding aggressively across towns and cities. However, Goldman Sachs said Zudio's performance has missed expectations for two consecutive quarters. The brokerage has lowered its FY26-28 revenue estimates for Trent by 5-9% and trimmed its earnings per share projections by 8-13%. Zudio continues to outpace the broader apparel market, with FY25 sales expected to grow nearly 60%, it said. Trent shares have declined 27% in 2025 as against the 4.7% gains in the to Goldman Sachs, Trent's market share is likely to rise from 1.1% in FY24 to 1.5% in FY25. It said Trent is the fastest-growing company in its consumer discretionary said the stock is likely to remain range-bound in near term until there is evidence of easing cannibalisation pressures. It maintained a positive long-term view, stating Trent's expansion is well-positioned to drive meaningful market share gains in larger towns over time. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
an hour ago
- Business
- Time of India
Goldman goes 'Neutral' on Trent, stock declines 4%
Mumbai: Shares of Trent , Tata Group's fashion retail chain, fell nearly 4% on Thursday after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from 'buy' to 'neutral' and cut its price target by 21%, citing concerns over slowing sales and higher-than-expected growth concerns in Zudio stores. The brokerage's new price target of ₹5,500, implies an upside of 6.7% over Thursday's close of ₹5,148. Zudio, Trent's value fashion chain, has been a key growth engine, expanding aggressively across towns and cities. However, Goldman Sachs said Zudio's performance has missed expectations for two consecutive quarters. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category Operations Management PGDM Leadership Data Analytics Others MCA Cybersecurity Artificial Intelligence CXO healthcare Digital Marketing Design Thinking Healthcare Data Science Management Finance Technology Project Management Product Management Public Policy others Degree MBA Data Science Skills you'll gain: Quality Management & Lean Six Sigma Analytical Tools Supply Chain Management & Strategies Service Operations Management Duration: 10 Months IIM Lucknow IIML Executive Programme in Strategic Operations Management & Supply Chain Analytics Starts on Jan 27, 2024 Get Details The brokerage has lowered its FY26-28 revenue estimates for Trent by 5-9% and trimmed its earnings per share projections by 8-13%. Zudio continues to outpace the broader apparel market, with FY25 sales expected to grow nearly 60%, it said. Trent shares have declined 27% in 2025 as against the 4.7% gains in the Sensex. According to Goldman Sachs, Trent's market share is likely to rise from 1.1% in FY24 to 1.5% in FY25. It said Trent is the fastest-growing company in its consumer discretionary coverage. Live Events Goldman said the stock is likely to remain range-bound in near term until there is evidence of easing cannibalisation pressures. It maintained a positive long-term view, stating Trent's expansion is well-positioned to drive meaningful market share gains in larger towns over time.
Globe and Mail
7 hours ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Former Ameriprise Advisors Launch RIA, Laurel Oak Wealth Management, Backed by Goldman Sachs
A team of five New Jersey-based financial advisors who previously managed more than $2.3 billion in client assets has launched Laurel Oak Wealth Management, a new independent registered investment advisory firm. The firm delivers personalized financial planning and investment management to clients across the U.S. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Laurel Oak Wealth Management Founded by industry veterans Christopher Heiser, Robert Andreacchio, Louis LaSelva, Matthew Fitzgerald, and Keith Radimer, Laurel Oak combines more than 135 years of collective wealth management experience. Previously with Ameriprise Financial, the team has found success serving multigenerational families, professionals, and business owners. They stand out for customized strategies in retirement planning, legacy preservation, and complex financial transitions. 'Our goal in launching Laurel Oak was to create a firm where advice is personal, communication is clear, and clients always come first,' said Christopher Heiser, a founding partner. 'As an independent RIA, we now have the flexibility to tailor strategies without the limitations of a corporate agenda.' Going independent also meant adopting a modern tech stack, helping to streamline onboarding, reporting, and communication. This means less paperwork, faster response times, and greater transparency at every step. To support that mission, Laurel Oak chose Goldman Sachs as their custodial partner, entrusting them to securely hold client assets and execute transactions under the firm's direction. With Goldman Sachs' digital-forward platform, the team gains access to institutional-grade tools that elevate both client security and service delivery. The dedicated transition support staff helped ensure a smooth move, resolving any complications quickly and efficiently. 'We are pleased to be the custodial platform of choice for Laurel Oak Wealth Management,' said Bill Dalton, Head of RIA Custody Sales at Goldman Sachs. 'Our digital-forward platform will enable their advisors to access Goldman Sachs' institutional-grade products and services. Our team looks forward to working with Laurel Oak Wealth Management and supporting them as they grow.' 'Our growth has always been rooted in one principle: showing up for people when it matters most,' added Louis LaSelva. 'Laurel Oak represents that mindset at scale.'
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Former Ameriprise Advisors Launch RIA, Laurel Oak Wealth Management, Backed by Goldman Sachs
MARLTON, N.J., July 24, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--A team of five New Jersey-based financial advisors who previously managed more than $2.3 billion in client assets has launched Laurel Oak Wealth Management, a new independent registered investment advisory firm. The firm delivers personalized financial planning and investment management to clients across the U.S. Founded by industry veterans Christopher Heiser, Robert Andreacchio, Louis LaSelva, Matthew Fitzgerald, and Keith Radimer, Laurel Oak combines more than 135 years of collective wealth management experience. Previously with Ameriprise Financial, the team has found success serving multigenerational families, professionals, and business owners. They stand out for customized strategies in retirement planning, legacy preservation, and complex financial transitions. "Our goal in launching Laurel Oak was to create a firm where advice is personal, communication is clear, and clients always come first," said Christopher Heiser, a founding partner. "As an independent RIA, we now have the flexibility to tailor strategies without the limitations of a corporate agenda." Going independent also meant adopting a modern tech stack, helping to streamline onboarding, reporting, and communication. This means less paperwork, faster response times, and greater transparency at every step. To support that mission, Laurel Oak chose Goldman Sachs as their custodial partner, entrusting them to securely hold client assets and execute transactions under the firm's direction. With Goldman Sachs' digital-forward platform, the team gains access to institutional-grade tools that elevate both client security and service delivery. The dedicated transition support staff helped ensure a smooth move, resolving any complications quickly and efficiently. "We are pleased to be the custodial platform of choice for Laurel Oak Wealth Management," said Bill Dalton, Head of RIA Custody Sales at Goldman Sachs. "Our digital-forward platform will enable their advisors to access Goldman Sachs' institutional-grade products and services. Our team looks forward to working with Laurel Oak Wealth Management and supporting them as they grow." "Our growth has always been rooted in one principle: showing up for people when it matters most," added Louis LaSelva. "Laurel Oak represents that mindset at scale." Laurel Oak Wealth Management's main office is located at 5 Greentree Center, 525 Route 73 N, Suite 200, Marlton, NJ. For more information, visit View source version on Contacts Media Contact Jennifer RelovskyMarketing Specialist, Business Development 856-449-8263 擷取數據時發生錯誤 登入存取你的投資組合 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤
