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Malay Mail
an hour ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
Bursa dips on profit-taking as investors await Fed rate decision
KUALA LUMPUR, July 30 — Bursa Malaysia opened lower on Wednesday, tracking losses from overnight Wall Street performance as profit-taking emerged ahead of the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut decision later today. At 9.10am, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) fell 2.43 points, or 0.12 per cent, to 1,521.39 from Tuesday's close of 1,523.82. The benchmark index opened 0.28 of a point firmer at 1,524.10. Market breadth was slightly negative, with decliners leading gainers 177 to 104. A total of 263 counters were unchanged, 1,987 untraded, and 89 suspended. Turnover stood at 169.43 million shares worth RM86.30 million. Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd equity research vice-president Thong Pak Leng said Wall Street ended in the red as investors engaged in profit-taking ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision later today, amid a mixed set of corporate earnings. 'Additionally, we believe foreign funds took the opportunity to lock in profits after a decent run-up recently. 'Nonetheless, we reckon the sell-down was quite excessive and expect an immediate rebound. Otherwise, we may be stuck within another consolidation phase. For today, we expect the index to trend between the 1,520-1,530 range,' he told Bernama. Thong also said market sentiment was severely impacted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raising Malaysia's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast. Yesterday, the IMF in its July 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update 'Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty', raised its forecast for Malaysia's GDP growth to 4.5 per cent in 2025 and 4.0 per cent in 2026. It said the forecast is 0.4 percentage point higher than in the reference forecast of the April 2025 WEO and 0.2 percentage point higher for 2026. Among the heavyweights, Maybank rose one sen to RM9.53, Public Bank, Tenaga Nasional and CIMB were flat at RM4.21, RM13.32 and RM6.64, respectively. IHH Healthcare dropped two sen to RM6.58. On the actively traded list, Dataprep gained half a sen to 12 sen, TWL and Harvest Miracle both remained unchanged at 2.5 sen and 17.5 sen, while NexG lost half a sen to 52.5 sen and Pharmaniaga slipped one sen to 17 sen. Top gainers included Chin Teck Plantations which advanced 21 sen to RM9.70, Petronas Gas added 14 sen to RM17.92, and Country View grew nine sen to RM2.39. Among the top losers, Nestle dropped RM1.32 to RM86.48, and Malaysian Pacific Industries narrowed 14 sen to RM19.28. On the broader market, the FBM Emas Index was down 16.16 points to 11,423.97, the FBMT 100 Index trimmed 15.84 points to 11,185.69, and the FBM Emas Shariah Index shed 22.64 points to 11,455.45. The FBM 70 Index edged down 14.39 points to 16,513.82, while the FBM ACE Index inched down 9.60 points to 4,617.02. Sector-wise, the Financial Services Index ticked down 11.26 points to 17,298.08, the Industrial Products and Services Index was 0.02 of a point lower at 159.36, and the Plantation Index dropped 18.44 points to 7,376.59, while the Energy Index gained 3.02 points to 746.74. — Bernama
Malay Mail
an hour ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
IMF raises Malaysia's real GDP growth forecast to 4.5pc for 2025, 4.0pc for 2026
KUALA LUMPUR, July 30 — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Malaysia's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 4.5 per cent in 2025 and 4.0 per cent in 2026. In its July 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update released today, titled 'Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty', the IMF said the forecast for 2025 is 0.4 percentage point higher than in the reference forecast of the April 2025 WEO and 0.2 percentage point higher for 2026. Meanwhile, the IMF said that in the emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to be 4.1 per cent in 2025 and 4.0 per cent in 2026. 'Relative to the forecast in April, growth in 2025 for China is revised upward by 0.8 percentage point to 4.8 per cent. This revision reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and the significant reduction in US-China tariffs,' it said. Additionally, it said China's growth in 2026 is also revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 per cent, again reflecting the lower effective tariff rates. 'In India, growth is projected to be 6.4 per cent in 2025 and 2026, with both numbers revised slightly upward, reflecting a more benign external environment than assumed in the April reference forecast,' it said. The IMF highlighted that despite global uncertainties, countries should reduce policy-induced uncertainty by promoting clear and transparent trade frameworks. 'Pragmatic cooperation is paramount in instances in which some rules of the international trading system, in their current form, may not be functioning as intended. 'This entails the pursuit of multilateral initiatives on the global commons and modernising trade rules where feasible, while seeking plurilateral or regional solutions on other matters,' it said. Moreover, the IMF said bilateral negotiations can help defuse trade tensions and should aim to reduce trade and investment barriers while not increasing them toward third parties, which could escalate tensions with other trading partners. 'Such negotiations should be pursued with the ultimate aim of addressing the root causes of tensions: specifically, excess external imbalances arising from internal policy choices. This would involve identifying and taking steps to resolve the underlying distortions for a more durable solution. 'Broad subsidies and industrial policies aiming to protect exports can be costly and distortive,' it said. The IMF said central banks must carefully calibrate monetary policies to country-specific circumstances to maintain price and financial stability amid prolonged trade tensions and evolving tariffs. 'In countries imposing tariffs on trading partners — either by initiating or by retaliating — these actions constitute supply shocks. 'Hence, central banks in these countries face a difficult trade-off between shielding the real sector and preventing the expected one-off increase in prices from turning into persistently higher inflation. The trade-off becomes more pertinent if inflation is already above target,' it said. According to the report, further easing of monetary policy should then depend on having convincing evidence that inflation and inflation expectations are heading decisively back to target. 'Countries that have not imposed tariffs, by contrast, face a demand shock. Central banks could, in this case, gradually reduce the policy rate,' it said. — Bernama
RTÉ News
an hour ago
- Business
- RTÉ News
IMF lifts 2025 global growth forecast on tariff distortion
The IMF has today raised its global growth forecast as efforts to circumvent Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs sparked a bigger-than-expected surge in trade, while the US president stepped back from some of his harshest threats. But the International Monetary Fund still sees growth slowing this year, even as it lifted its 2025 projection to 3% - up from 2.8% in April - in its World Economic Outlook update. In 2024, global growth came in at 3.3%. Looking ahead, the IMF expects the world economy to expand 3.1% next year, an improvement from the 3% it earlier predicted. Despite the upward revisions, "there are reasons to be very cautious," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told AFP. "Businesses were trying to frontload, move stuff around, before the tariffs were imposed, and so that's supporting economic activity," he said. "There is going to be payback for that. If you stock the shelves now, you don't need to stock them later in the year or into the next year," he added. This means a likelihood of reduced trade activity in the second half of the year, and into 2026. "The global economy has continued to hold steady, but the composition of activity points to distortions from tariffs, rather than underlying robustness," the IMF's report said. Since returning to the White House, Trump has imposed a 10% levy on almost all trading partners and steeper duties on cars, steel and aluminum. But he paused higher tariffs on dozens of economies until August 1, a significant delay from April when they were first unveiled. Washington and Beijing also agreed to lower for 90 days triple-digit duties on each other's goods, in a pause set to expire August 12, although talks that could lead to a further extension of the truce are ongoing. Trump's actions so far have brought the US effective tariff rate to 17.3%, significantly above the 3.5% level for the rest of the world, the IMF said. US inflation hit Among major economies, US growth for 2025 was revised 0.1 percentage points up, to 1.9%, with tariff rates anticipated to settle at lower levels than initially announced in April. The US economy is also set to see a near-term boost from Trump's flagship tax and spending bill. Growth for the euro area was adjusted 0.2 percentage points higher to 1%, but this partially reflected a jump in Irish pharmaceutical exports to the US to avoid fresh duties. Among European economies, Germany is still expected to avoid contraction while forecasts for France and Spain remained unchanged at 0.6% and 2.5% respectively. While the IMF anticipates global inflation to keep declining, with headline inflation cooling to 4.2% this year, it warned that price increases will remain above above target in the US. "The tariffs, acting as a supply shock, are expected to pass through to US consumer prices gradually and hit inflation in the second half of 2025," the IMF report said. Elsewhere, Trump's duties "constitute a negative demand shock, lowering inflationary pressures," the report added. China challenges Growth in the world's second biggest economy China, however, was revised sharply upwards by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%. This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025, alongside "the significant reduction in US-China tariffs," the IMF said. But Gourinchas warned that China is still experiencing headwinds, with "fairly weak" domestic demand. "There is relatively little consumer confidence, the property sector is still a black spot in the Chinese economy, it's not been completely addressed," he added. "And that is resulting in a drag on economic activity going forward." Meanwhile, growth in Russia was revised 0.6 percentage points down, to 0.9%. This was in part due to Russian policies, but also oil prices which are set to remain relatively subdued compared to 2024 levels, Gourinchas said.
Time of India
an hour ago
- Business
- Time of India
6.4%: IMF raises India GDP forecast
NEW DELHI: IMF on Tuesday raised the global growth projection marginally, with the Indian economy too likely to expand more than what was estimated earlier. In its latest update, IMF said India is projected to grow 6.4% in 2025 and 2026, "reflecting a more benign external environment than assumed in the April reference forecast". The estimate for this fiscal year, ending March 2026, is 0.2 percentage points higher than the earlier one. Global growth is projected at 3% (2.8% estimate earlier) for 2025 and 3.1% next year. "This reflects stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs; lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April; an improvement in financial conditions, including due to a weaker US dollar; and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions," it said. For the US and China too, growth estimates have been revised upwards, 0.8 percentage points in China's case to 4.8%. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . Discover stories of India's leading eco-innovators at Ecopreneur Honours 2025
Express Tribune
an hour ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
IMF puts growth below govt target
Listen to article The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday projected Pakistan's economic growth rate at 3.6% for the current fiscal year, below the government's official target of 4.2%. The projection was released in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook Update report which kept Pakistan's growth forecast unchanged. The government had set a higher growth goal based on expected recovery in agriculture and industrial sectors. However, the World Bank recently estimated that poverty in Pakistan affects nearly 45% of the population. Official data on poverty and unemployment is currently unavailable, though the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) is said to be updating relevant surveys. Due to outdated data, the provisional GDP growth rate of 2.7% for FY2024-25 has been disputed by independent economists. The PBS plans to release findings of the latest Agriculture Census next month, which may address some of these queries. On the same day, the federal government also briefed foreign diplomats on recent economic developments and sought support to increase foreign direct investment (FDI), which remains low. The diplomats raised concerns over rising debt costs, heavy reliance on costly commercial loans, tax relief measures, and the sustainability of the Power Division's plan to cut circular debt through Rs1.25 trillion in fresh domestic borrowing. Finance Minister of State Bilal Azhar Kayani and Power Minister Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari led the briefing for diplomats from the US, UK, EU, Italy, Germany, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Japan, the Netherlands, and Saudi Arabia. According to a finance ministry press release, officials outlined reforms in taxation and the power sector. Kayani said Pakistan's macroeconomic strategy had shifted from stabilisation to sustained reform. He noted that GDP growth was 2.7% in FY2024-25, and per capita income increased by 10% to $1,824. However, this was based on old and relatively low population estimates. The finance ministry claimed a 3.1% primary surplus in GDP, the highest in 20 years, though it did not clarify in the press note whether this was for the full year or only the first 11 months. Inflation dropped to 4.5%, a nine-year low, while the central bank's policy rate was halved from 22% to 11%. The debt-to-GDP ratio also reportedly declined to 69%, indicating improved fiscal management. Diplomats asked how the government planned to reduce the high cost of external debt. Officials said that the strategy had already been finalised with both the IMF and the World Bank. The finance ministry said the external sector showed resilience, recording a $2.1 billion current account surplus, the first in 14 years and the highest in 22 years. This was supported by strong remittances, higher exports, rising FDI, and stable foreign reserves of over $14.5 billion. Officials claimed this performance was achieved without heavy reliance on foreign borrowing. However, the central bank purchased at least $7.3 billion from the local market between July and April, which kept the rupee artificially low. This sum exceeded the entire three-year size of the IMF bailout package. Diplomats were also told that two credit rating agencies had recently given Pakistan positive reviews, and Moody's is expected to upgrade the country soon. S&P upgraded Pakistan to 'B negative' last week, advising further political and security stability for continued progress. In the energy sector, Leghari told diplomats that significant milestones had been achieved, although questions remained over their long-term sustainability. He said the circular debt, now around Rs2.4 trillion, was being addressed under a plan agreed with the IMF. The government has secured Rs1.25 trillion in commercial loans to pay down a large portion of this debt. The repayment will be funded through a Rs3.24 per unit electricity surcharge, ultimately borne by consumers. Diplomats questioned whether this approach was sustainable. Leghari acknowledged structural problems such as high tariffs and inefficient pricing, which had made electricity unaffordable for households and industry. These issues had also created fiscal pressures. To address them, the government has undertaken broad-based reforms centred on tariff rationalisation, fiscal responsibility and operational improvement. Leghari said progress had been made in stabilising circular debt in FY2025. He also pointed out the need to modernise energy planning to account for seasonal demand shifts, regional supply gaps, and the rising role of distributed generation. Distribution company performance was another key focus. Leghari said infrastructure upgrades and strengthened governance were underway to reduce losses, with reforms implemented to ensure regional equity and institutional coordination. He called on foreign governments and global investors to invest in the energy sector, citing $2-3 billion in potential across grid modernisation, renewable energy, distribution efficiency, and energy services. He also noted that the government aims to privatise electricity distribution companies, with three companies being restructured for privatisation by early 2026. Chairman FBR, Rashid Langrial, briefed diplomats on the FBR Transformation Plan, built on three pillars: people, process, and technology. He claimed that real tax collection had increased by 46% due to improved compliance and enforcement. He also stated that the tax-to-GDP ratio rose to 10.24% in FY2025, up from 8.8% in FY2024. However, Pakistan still missed its IMF revenue target by 0.3% of GDP, despite levying record-high taxes last year.
