Latest news with #NFIB
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Prospects For Inflation On Main Street
Inflation has fallen dramatically since 2022, from 9% to just under 3%, getting closer to the Fed's target of 2%. It was a tough time for small businesses, plagued by forced business restrictions, supply chain disruptions, shortages of goods, rising labor costs, and an avalanche of new regulations and subsidies. Although the percent of small businesses raising selling prices has declined from its peak in 2022, it remains historically high (Chart 1); the inflation rate continues to stay stubbornly above the Fed's target. Labor costs, the largest operating expense for most small businesses, have remained high but have been trending downward since 2022. However, increased compensation costs have not risen as fast as prices, which is the mechanism for passing those costs on to customers and transmitting inflation. Changes in Price and Labor Compensation. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. Cost changes in a non-inflationary environment drive price changes. Small businesses rarely find themselves in a monopolistic position except during emergency situations. A significant operating cost for labor-intensive businesses is employee compensation. The correlation between price increases and compensation increases is clearly demonstrated in Chart 1. Small Businesses Raising Wages and Job Openings by Industry. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. Chart 2 shows the percent of small businesses in each industry group that have recently raised compensation and the percent reporting unfilled job openings. Construction leads with the greatest share of businesses with a job opening (65%). This industry also has the second-highest percent of businesses raising compensation (44%,10 points below finance), which is vital for retaining and attracting more employees. Residential real estate is under pressure, with a shortage of homes to meet demand, particularly at the less expensive end. The manufacturing and transportation industries were next highest on the list to raise compensation. They are also among the most optimistic, however the level of optimism is historically low in the current period. Measures of uncertainty are at historically high levels, as shown in Chart 3. NFIB's Uncertainty Index has averaged 65 since 1973, but it currently stands at 89, after peaking at 110 in October 2024. It is based on the percent of owners who give an 'uncertain' or 'don't know' response to six forward-looking questions. Uncertainty Index. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. Small business owners in the transportation industry experienced the most uncertainty (due to mandates for electric trucks, fuel costs, etc.), with 31% scoring in the highest levels of uncertainty, 7 points ahead of the next closest industry. The wholesale trades, manufacturing, and construction industries followed. Retail business owners were the least troubled, as consumer spending remains solid. Uncertainty delays decision-making, including the choice 'not to raise prices.' With so many moving pieces, it is hard to solve the puzzle. In 2008, record numbers of small businesses reduced compensation and employment. Compensation increases diminished, and the frequency of price hikes fell dramatically. In recent quarters, this trend has reversed, with wage and price increases trending upward. This will keep pressure on inflation measures, making it hard for regulators to get inflation under control and keep it there.
The Guardian
3 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Rental fraud: the Facebook and Gumtree scam targeting desperate tenants
You're desperately hunting for somewhere to live and scouring rental sites. The odds are stacked against you. Rents are high everywhere – in London tenants are paying almost £1,000 for a shoe cupboard with a bed – and living rooms have gone from a regular commodity to a luxury. But matters are made worse by scammers. The Guardian's journalism is independent. We will earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link. Learn more. Young people now account for three-quarters of rental fraud, according to data from the National Fraud Intelligence Bureau (NFIB). Last year alone almost £9m was lost across about 5,000 reported cases. Recently, the BBC reported how a family had lost £2,000 after responding to a scam advert on the listings website Gumtree – the criminals had even shown them round the property before taking the money. Most scams take place through websites where individuals can advertise directly, and at no cost, rather than the big property websites. And, as would-be tenants turn to social media to look for rooms, so do scammers posing as individual tenants or landlords to trap unsuspecting victims. Some, such as Spareroom, offer users advice on how to spot a scam. There are variations, but a common version involves someone posing as a landlord and posting on dedicated Facebook rental groups, or Gumtree, offering a cheap place to rent. Sometimes they can be studio flats, other times they'll advertise a room in a two-, three-, sometimes four-bed flat. Once you message them with interest, they will typically put you in touch with the current 'tenant' through a mobile number. The tenant will explain more details about the property, sometimes even accompanied by a video of a flat. However, when you ask to view the property they'll be strangely unavailable – suddenly a parent has died, they're abroad, or they're just very busy. They will ask you to pay the deposit and often put pressure on you to act quickly. Do not pay any deposit upfront without seeing a property, no matter how desperate you are to find a home. Make sure you go to see any property before you commit to renting. Gumtree advises: 'Always ask to see proof of ownership, or the landlord's right to let, and ensure a tenancy agreement is in place before paying deposits or holding fees.' Stand your ground; if something seems fishy, it probably is. On social media, or listing websites, check when the landlord's profile was created. How long have they been active? Do they seem to be advertising multiple properties with similar messages? What comes up when you search their name? If a landlord is claiming to be part of the NRLA, you can check whether their accreditation is legitimate here. Report fraudulent accounts to Facebook and Gumtree.
BBC News
6 days ago
- BBC News
Thames Valley Police courier fraud warning as victims lose £2m
More than £2m was lost by victims of courier fraud in the Thames Valley in the past year, new statistics have from the National Fraud Intelligence Bureau (NFIB) found the region's police force received 135 reports, the second most in the UK after the Metropolitan scam involves fraudsters, usually pretending to be police officers or bank employees, urging victims to withdraw funds or purchase items as part of an hand the cash or items to a courier, who promises them reimbursement before taking off with the goods. The NFIB data showed that courier fraud amounted to almost £22m of losses nationwide from April 2024 to March 2025 - with each victim losing £16,000 on the Met and Thames Valley Police, Cheshire Constabulary, Hampshire Constabulary, and Essex Police had the next highest number of reports. Det Insp Duncan Wynn, from Thames Valley Police, said: "Any telephone call out of the blue should be treated with caution, especially if it is framed as an emergency where you are required to act quickly."He said the police, or banks, would "never ask you to assist with an undercover investigation, move money, withdraw cash, share your one time password or ask you to grant them access to your computer"."We would also never send a courier or anyone else to pick up items or ask you to post anything."He said the force would "continue to be relentless" in its "pursuit of those who prey on vulnerable victims".Thames Valley Police and Crime Commissioner, Matthew Barber, added: "We are warning people to be vigilant and aware that criminals are employing new tactics and putting pressure on victims to make quick decisions and preying on those who rightly trust institutions such as the police." You can follow BBC Oxfordshire on Facebook, X (Twitter), or Instagram.
Forbes
7 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Investment Made By U.S. Small Businesses
Education and training are important investments in workers (human capital). However, workers must be paired with physical capital (from shovels to AI computers) to produce the goods and services that consumers want. Small business owners act as 'intermediaries,' bringing capital and labor together in a working partnership. NFIB's June Small Business Economic Trends report found that 50% of small business owners reported making a capital expenditure in the past six months. These included vehicles, equipment, fixtures and furniture, buildings or land, along with improvements to existing buildings or land. Historically, June's level is low, close to the 50-year low of 45% reached after the 2008 recession (Chart 1). The peak of 72% occurred in December 1998, as spending surged in anticipation of the 'Y2K' event, which turned out to be a 'non-event." Actual Capital Outlays. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. Chart 2 shows the types of expenditures made in June. Thirty-two percent reported purchasing vehicles, ranging from a low of 13% among wholesale businesses to a high of 45% among finance and real estate businesses. Nine percent purchased new equipment, 3% upgraded structures, and 13% acquired new facilities (purchased or leased). Equipment purchases were concentrated in the service and retail industries. Types of Investment by Industry (Bought or Leased). NIFB Small Business Economic Trends. The most frequent spenders were transportation and communication businesses (Chart 3). They also had the highest spending, with 29% reporting outlays of $100,000 or more. Trucks and construction vehicles are expensive! Businesses in the retail, services, and professional services industries were the least active buyers and tended to spend less money when they invested. In general, businesses that 'made stuff' were much more likely to invest and spend more money than service businesses (labor-intensive). Capital Expenditure Amount by Industry. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. A critical component of gross private domestic investment is the 'change in business inventories.' In simple terms, if General Motors makes a car in the U.S. and sells it, GDP is created as consumption rises. If the car is unsold at the end of the accounting period (year, quarter, or month), then it becomes an inventory investment. When the car is sold in another period, it is a subtraction from GDP because it was already accounted for in GDP through increased inventory investment. Basically, it is an accounting convention, unrelated to real investment spending, but a contributor to volatility in GDP measurement. It is small compared to outlays on plant and equipment and housing. Actual Change in Inventory. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. Progress is the product of a partnership between capital and labor, the essence of all businesses, big and small. Owners provide the structure and equipment and hire workers to complete the partnership. Good management and qualified workers enhance productivity, the fundamental driver of profits and wages. It's a never-ending process, as the environment is constantly changing. Main Street is where it all starts. Microsoft (et al) didn't just suddenly appear; they were all small businesses on Main Street.
Fibre2Fashion
10-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US small business optimism steady amid mixed signals in June: NFIB
The Uunited States NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady in June, dipping by 0.2 points to 98.6, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. A significant rise in respondents reporting excess inventories was the primary factor behind the index's decline. The Uncertainty Index dropped by five points from May to 89. Nineteen per cent of small business owners cited taxes as their most pressing issue, marking an increase from May, and once again ranked as the top concern. The last time taxes reached 19 per cent was in July 2021, NFIB said in a press release. 'Small business optimism remained steady in June while uncertainty fell,' said Bill Dunkelberg , chief economist at NFIB . 'Taxes remain the top issue on Main Street, but many others are still concerned about labour quality and high labour costs.' The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in June declined slightly to 98.6, primarily due to concerns about inventory levels, with a net 5 per cent reporting stocks as 'too low'. Expectations for better business conditions and higher sales volumes fell. Labour quality remains a concern for 16 per cent of owners, while inflation pressures eased to 11 per cent. The June index showed a slight dip, with a net negative 5 per cent of business owners viewing their current inventory stocks as 'too low'. This marks a six-point decrease from May, signalling a net increase in inventories. In June, 7 per cent of owners reported inventories as 'too low', down from 8 per cent in May, while 12 per cent reported inventories as 'too high', up from 7 per cent in May. This shift in inventory concerns was the primary factor behind the decline in the Optimism Index. Business owners' expectations for better conditions dropped by three points, standing at a net 22 per cent, still above the 51-year average of 3 per cent. Similarly, expectations for higher real sales volumes fell by three points to a net 7 per cent. In terms of capital investment, 21 per cent of owners' plan capital outlays over the next six months, a slight decrease from May. Labour quality remains a key challenge for small businesses, with 16 per cent of owners citing it as their most important issue, unchanged from May. This marks a decline from April 2020, when labour quality complaints were lower. The percentage of small business owners reporting labour as their top concern aligns with other data suggesting a more tempered labour market across the economy. Inflation pressures appear to be easing, with 11 per cent of owners now citing higher input costs as their most important problem, down three points from May and the lowest level since September 2021. The overall health of small businesses has significantly deteriorated. The percentage of business owners rating their company as in 'excellent' or 'good' health fell, with 8 per cent reporting excellent health (down six points) and 49 per cent reporting good health (down six points). Conversely, 35 per cent rated their business health as fair (up seven points), while 7 per cent reported poor health (up three points). Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
