logo
#

Latest news with #S&P500

An early lesson from this earnings season: Don't judge the quarter too quickly
An early lesson from this earnings season: Don't judge the quarter too quickly

CNBC

timean hour ago

  • Business
  • CNBC

An early lesson from this earnings season: Don't judge the quarter too quickly

The one-two punch of strong earnings and tame inflation helped propel the S & P 500 to a positive week — despite the latest tariff news on Friday putting a slight damper on the action. The broad index added 0.59% for the week led by technology, utilities and industrials, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, jumping 1.51%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week slightly in negative territory, down 0.07%, after falling 142 points Friday on a report that President Donald Trump was pushing for between 15% to 20% tariffs in any deal with the European Union. The main economic event of the week came Tuesday, with the release of the June consumer price index. The headline CPI reading tracked in line with expectations, rising 2.7% year over year. However, the core index, which strips out food and energy due to their higher levels of volatility, came in slightly below expectations at 2.9% versus 3.0% expected. It wasn't a perfect report, though. Importantly, the shelter cost index was up 3.8% year over year. While lower than what we saw in the 12-month period ending May 2025 and trending the right way, it's still above the overall rate of inflation. For that reason, it's problematic as the Federal Reserve looks to thread the needle between maintaining price stability — which requires higher rates to address issues like the rise in shelter costs — and keeping unemployment low. Fortunately, for the time being, labor market dynamics are on the Fed's side, with the unemployment rate coming at 4.1%, as of June, and initial jobless claims now falling for five straight weeks. As a result, the market, according to the CME FedWatch Tool , continues to believe the Fed will keep its benchmark lending rate steady at its late July meeting, though the base case remains that we will likely see two cuts by year-end. More good news on inflation arrived Wednesday when the June producer price index came in a bit below expectations on both the headline and core readings. Known as the PPI, the gauge tracks wholesale inflation and is seen as a leading indicator for the CPI given it provides insights into what producers of goods are paying for their inputs. If their costs are going up, that will ultimately feed into what we all see in stores. It's too early to make a final judgement on how much tariffs are trickling into consumer prices, even though the overall impact so far appears to be subdued. Beneath the surface of the CPI report, some tariff-sensitive goods categories, such as household furnishings and supplies, increased at rates above the headline level. At the same time, within the PPI report, we saw a 0.1% decline in final demand services that was more than offset by a 0.3% increase in final demand goods. Putting it all together, the tariff impact thus far has proven very manageable — for now. It's possible the impact grows over time. As a result, while we continue to think rates should ultimately come down, we don't think Fed Chair Jerome Powell would be wrong to keep rates where they are for now as we wait for another month of data to roll in. Other positive economic updates this week included a better-than-expected read on June industrial production and capacity utilization; lower-than-expected initial jobless claims for the week ending June 12; strong June retail sales, and slight beat on June housing starts. Earnings was the other big story of the week, and the results were overall supportive of the idea that companies are deftly navigating the tricky economic moment. As for Club earnings, we had some hits and misses, though no real thesis-changing events. On Tuesday morning, we were wrong in thinking Wells Fargo could increase its net interest income outlook. No denying it. However, the reason we aren't changing our view is because we like why we were wrong. Rather than focus on the net interest part of its business — which is highly dependent on interest rates and therefore more out of management's control — the team is pushing deeper into the fee-based side of the operation, which tends to be more predictable. After falling around 5.5% on the report Tuesday, shares of Wells Fargo gained 2.3% over the final three days of the week, which was nice to see after the initial market reaction. BlackRock also got clobbered when it released second-quarter results Tuesday, sinking 5.9%. While the asset management giant did miss on revenues, we argued the sellers were short-sighted and failed to appreciate things such as the strong organic growth in fee revenue. They also weren't considering the transformative acquisition of private credit manager HPS acquisition, which wasn't in the Q2 results because it didn't close until July 1. That deal stands to provide a significant boost to the business going forward. Indeed, our more optimistic read on BlackRock's report proved to be correct. The stock quickly bounced back, touching a fresh all-time intraday high Friday before closing modestly lower in the session. Our final financial of the week to report, Goldman Sachs produced very strong results. Despite a tepid stock reaction, investors shouldn't ignore the combination of excellent execution, high levels of excess capital, and an improving IPO and M & A environment in the back half of the year. As we work our way into 2026, those three factors support a higher stock price. Goldman sits about 2% off its all-time closing high of nearly $724 a share on July 3. Abbott Labs rounded out the week Thursday, reporting a top and bottom line beat with strong organic growth versus the prior year. However, shares took an 8.5% dive as management failed to increase its outlook for full year earnings, guided below expectations for current earnings, and shaved its outlook for full-year organic sales growth. It wasn't the kind of print we've come to expect from Abbott. However, we appreciate CEO Robert Ford coming on "Mad Money" to provide a closer look at the quarter and the path ahead. It bolstered our conviction to stick with the name. We're hardly alone on Wall Street, with many analysts coming out in defense of the stock Friday. In fact, analysts at Jefferies actually took the pullback as an opportunity to upgrade shares to a buy rating. Abbott shares added 2.6% Friday, clawing back a few of the bucks lost in Thursday's sell-off. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long WFC, GS, BLK and ABT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

The Saturday Spread: Using Science to Pinpoint Empirically Enticing Trades in WMT, OKTA and RCAT
The Saturday Spread: Using Science to Pinpoint Empirically Enticing Trades in WMT, OKTA and RCAT

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

The Saturday Spread: Using Science to Pinpoint Empirically Enticing Trades in WMT, OKTA and RCAT

It's the one question that the financial publication industry consistently refuses to answer: how likely is it that the broadcasted thesis happened because of the signal or undervaluation and not just by random chance? Pretty much all finpub articles offer an investment or trading idea; otherwise, what would be the point of reading the material? If there was no edge to be found, then you should simply put your money into the benchmark S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and call it a day. But instead, the concept of reading financial analyses is to extract alpha — generating returns that exceed what you'd expect from passive exposure to a broader index. More News from Barchart Netflix Produces Strong Q2 FCF, But NFLX Stock Dips - Is It a Buy Here? AMZN Trade Idea: Capture Gains Without Chasing the Stock AMC Entertainment's Unusual Options Activity Sets Up for a Long Straddle. Should You Bite? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. But you can't just extract alpha without understanding what you are benchmarking against. And that's the point of the null hypothesis. In the financial realm, the null hypothesis is the assumption that there is no mispricing. Put another way, whether you read the finpub article in question or not, your performance will not deviate statistically from what is expected. By logical deduction, our job as analysts is to reject the null; specifically, that the alternative hypothesis that we present is not just a materialization of random noise but an empirically meaningful signal. To determine this meaningfulness, analysts should run a binomial test, which helps narrow down truly interesting ideas from typical price discovery chaos. However, looking at share prices or their derivatives for recurring patterns represents a gargantuan task. Instead, I prefer compressing (discretizing) price action into market breadth or sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions. By analyzing root demand, we can more easily pinpoint unusual quantitative signals — signals that can point to asymmetric opportunities. Yes, the emphasis on scientific methodologies is a financial red pill. But if we're going to beat the market, we have to think differently. Below are three ideas to mull over this coming week. Walmart (WMT) Let me be blunt: big-box retailer Walmart (WMT) is a truly boring idea. But even industry juggernauts can occasionally broadcast signals that make them very intriguing. For WMT stock, this signal is what I would abbreviate as the 6-4-D sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, negative trajectory across the 10-week period. Since January 2019, this sequence has materialized 17 times. It's an odd pattern given that the balance of accumulative sessions outweighs distributive, yet the overall trajectory is negative. Still, what's most intriguing is that in 76.47% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 1%. On Friday, WMT stock closed at $95.05, meaning that if the implications of the 6-4-D sequence pan out, it could hit $96 soon, perhaps in a week. Should the bulls maintain control of the market over the next three to four weeks, a push toward $96.55, perhaps even $97, may be on the cards based on past analogs. The null hypothesis in this case is the baseline probability of WMT stock assuming no unusual mispricing, which is 57.02%. However, the much higher probability of the 6-4-D sequence — which has an empirically intriguing p-value of 0.0819 (implying 91.81% confidence that the signal isn't random) — incentivizes a debit-based options strategy. With that in mind, aggressive speculators may consider the 95/97bull call spread expiring Aug. 8. Barchart Premier members can quickly pinpoint the most viable trades, thereby eliminating much of the guesswork involved in options trading. The above transaction involves buying the $95 call and simultaneously selling the $97 call, for a net debit paid of $93. Should WMT stock rise through the short strike price at expiration, the maximum reward stands at $107, a payout of 115%. Okta (OKTA) Another intriguing idea that popped on the quantitative radar is Oka (OKTA), an identity and access management company. While OKTA stock has been a strong performer, gaining over 21% on a year-to-date basis, it has also been a choppy name. For example, in the trailing month, the security is down 4%. Still, this may open up a trading opportunity. In the past two months, OKTA stock has printed a 4-6-D sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, negative trajectory. Since January 2019, this particular sequence has occurred 37 times. Ordinarily, it would be associated with pessimism given the greater balance of distributive sessions, along with the negative trajectory. However, in 64.86% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 4.93%. Should the bulls maintain control for the next three weeks, investors may see an added performance boost of 2.06%. With OKTA closing at $95.43 on Friday, it could potentially be on pace to exceed $102 over the next few weeks. Here, the null hypothesis is a baseline probability of 52.63%. Further, the 4-6-D sequence runs a p-value of only 0.0917. All things considered, the framework incentivizes a debit-based strategy. With that said, speculators may consider the 97.50/100 bull call spread expiring Aug. 15. This trade requires a net debit of $96, with a gargantuan payout of over 160%. Red Cat (RCAT) Defense contractor Red Cat (RCAT) — which specializes in advanced solutions such as reconnaissance drones — is fundamentally intriguing for obvious reasons if you've been keeping pace with geopolitical news. However, it's also risky. RCAT stock is down more than 12% YTD and that's including the 30% lift in the trailing five sessions. If choppiness isn't your thing, you may want to look elsewhere. Here's the thing, though. In the past two months, RCAT stock has printed a 6-4-U sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, positive trajectory. Since January 2019, this sequence has materialized 44 times. With RCAT, the higher balance of accumulative sessions tends to attract more bullish behavior. Therefore, in 56.82% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 9.31%. On the surface, that might not seem like a significant edge. However, RCAT's null hypothesis is a baseline probability of 45.32%. Given that the security natively features a negative bias, it's enticing that the 6-4-U sequence tilts the odds firmly in the bulls' favor. This signal has a p-value of 0.1398, which is higher than the rest. However, given the open-system nature of the stock market, it's arguably empirically intriguing. Those who really want to swing for the fences may consider the 11/12 bull call spread expiring Aug. 15. This trade requires a net debit of $40, with a max payout of 150%. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Gold price today, Friday, July 18, 2025: Gold remains steady after positive economic news
Gold price today, Friday, July 18, 2025: Gold remains steady after positive economic news

Yahoo

time3 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Gold price today, Friday, July 18, 2025: Gold remains steady after positive economic news

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $3,347.50 per ounce Friday, 0.2% higher than Thursday's close of $3,340.10. The price of gold has been relatively stable in July, ranging from $3,282 to $3,375.50. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) set new record highs Thursday after two key economic reports beat expectations. Initial jobless claims were lower than expected and down from the previous week. Retail sales in June rose 0.6% after falling 0.9% in May. Analysts had expected a 0.2% gain. Gold fell to $3,313.80 in trading on Thursday but rebounded slightly before day's end. Gold typically weakens when investors are optimistic about stocks and thrives when the economic outlook is uncertain. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures pause after march to latest records Current price of gold The opening price of gold futures on Friday is 0.2% higher than Thursday's close of $3,340.10 per ounce. Friday's opening price marks a gain of 0.5% over the past week, compared to the opening price of $3,330.50 on July 11. In the past month, the gold futures price has lost 1.1% compared to the opening price of $3,385.30 on June 18, 2025. In the past year, gold is up 35.7% from the opening price of $2,466 on July 18, 2024. Don't forget you can monitor the current price of gold on Yahoo Finance 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Want to learn more about the current top-performing companies in the gold industry? Explore a list of the top-performing companies in the gold industry using the Yahoo Finance Screener. You can create your own screeners with over 150 different screening criteria. Buying gold, silver, and platinum at Costco The next time you go to Costco (COST), you may want to pick up some gold with that rotisserie chicken. Gold prices have been on a run lately, and what more convenient place can you find to buy a commodity? In fact, the club store sells gold bars, silver coins, and platinum bars — three precious metals that many investors use to diversify their wealth. Learn more: Silver prices hit 13-year high as dollar weakens amid tariff uncertainty: 'The breakout has been brewing' The club store first offered gold bars in 2023, then added silver (SI=F) and platinum over the next year or so. Meanwhile, gold is hanging around its all-time high. Gold, silver, and platinum are all up more than 22% so far in 2025. Intrigued by Costco's precious metals offering? Read more here to learn key considerations for precious metals investing, the details of the Costco selection, and tips for managing your new investment. Up Next Up Next Price-of-gold chart Whether you're tracking the price of gold since last month or last year, the price-of-gold chart below shows the precious metal's steady upward climb in value. Historic price of gold Historically, gold has shown extended up cycles and down cycles. The precious metal was in a growth phase from 2009 to 2011. It then trended down, failing to set a new high for nine years. In those lackluster years for gold, your position will negatively impact your overall investment returns. If that feels problematic, a lower allocation percentage is more appropriate. On the other hand, you may be willing to accept gold's underperforming years so you can benefit more in the good years. In this case, you can target a higher percentage. The precious metal has been in the news lately, and many analysts are bullish on gold. In May, Goldman Sachs Research predicted gold would reach $3,700 a troy ounce by year-end 2025. That would equate to a 40% increase for the year, based on gold's January 2 opening price of $2,633. Rising demand from central banks, along with uncertainty related to changing U.S. tariff policy, are the factors driving the increase. If you are interested in learning more about gold's historical value, Yahoo Finance has been tracking the historical price of gold since 2000.

These companies reporting next week have earnings momentum on their side
These companies reporting next week have earnings momentum on their side

CNBC

time3 hours ago

  • Automotive
  • CNBC

These companies reporting next week have earnings momentum on their side

A few companies that are reporting quarterly results next week could see their shares rise, including General Motors and Charter Communications . Earnings season ramps up next week, as 98 companies in the S & P 500 — or around 20% of the benchmark — are slated to share their most recent quarterly earnings. Telecom and defense names are set to report, while the week's headliners will include big names like Tesla , Alphabet and General Motors . With this in mind, CNBC Pro screened data from FactSet to find the S & P 500 companies reporting earnings next week that might see a post-earnings boost. To be included in the table below, stocks had to meet the following criteria: Have an upside to average price target of at least 20% Have earnings per share estimates revised upwards by at least 10% in the past three and six months One name on the list was General Motors, which next reports on Tuesday. Shares of the automaker are flat in 2025, but consensus price targets call for about 32% upside. Earlier this month, CLSA initiated shares of General Motors at an outperform rating. Analyst Christopher Richter's target price of $68 implies an upside of nearly 28% from Friday's close. "Making the best of a bad situation, GM management senses an opportunity to turn Trump's auto tariffs to its advantage," the analyst wrote. "By holding back on any price hikes that would cover the import duties, GM is successfully turning up the heat on its competitors, especially those based overseas, all of which are loath to attract the wrath of the president. Furthermore, the company will spend US$4bn to move some production back to the USA." Analysts' price targets suggest that telecom stock Charter Communications could rise 30%. The company will post results next Friday. In May, Loop Capital upgraded the stock to a buy rating from hold. Analyst Alan Gould's new price target of $510, raised from $430, corresponds to about 33% upside ahead. As a catalyst, the analyst cited enhanced growth prospects from Charter's anticipated merger with Cox Communications. "The transaction is expected to be accretive, reduce leverage, and deliver scale efficiencies — positioning CHTR as the largest domestic cable operator," Gould wrote. "Additionally, CHTR's Life Unlimited rebrand, which provides a converged broadband/mobile offering as well as customer service guarantees, is showing early traction. Its new video strategy, which provides the ad-tier version of the programmers streaming apps at no extra cost should help mitigate video subscriber losses." Shares of Charter Communications have gained 11% this year. NextEra Energy , up nearly 6% this year, could also get a post-earnings lift next week. The average analyst price target implies a rally of 20% ahead. The company is slated to report earnings next Wednesday. Earlier in July, Wolfe Research added the stock to its Alpha List. "We're adding NEE, as we see an inflection point in a high-quality name trading at a modest premium, as meaningful overhangs are resolving," wrote Wolfe analyst Steve Fleishman. "Top tier growth with a strong balance sheet should sustain long-term." Fleishman's $82 price target is approximately 8% above where the stock closed on Friday.

Nvidia and other stocks just became the most overbought names on Wall Street this week
Nvidia and other stocks just became the most overbought names on Wall Street this week

CNBC

time3 hours ago

  • Business
  • CNBC

Nvidia and other stocks just became the most overbought names on Wall Street this week

Some stocks that have seen meaningful gains in recent days could be set to change course, a technical indicator shows. The S & P 500 ended Friday little changed , weighed down by trade policy concerns among investors after President Donald Trump reportedly called for more tariffs on the European Union. However, the broad market index posted a weekly gain of 0.6% as optimistic economic data and the latest slew of earnings results from names like Goldman Sachs and PepsiCo pushed the benchmark into the green for the period. CNBC Pro used its stock screener tool to identify the most overbought and oversold stocks this past week by measuring their 14-day relative strength index, or RSI. An RSI reading above 70 can suggest that a stock may be overbought and be poised for a downturn in the near term. On the flip side, an RSI below 30 could mean that a stock is oversold and be due for upside. Artificial intelligence darling Nvidia was one of the overbought names on Wall Street in the last week, recording an RSI of 80. Shares reached a new 52-week high Friday and posted a week-to-date gain of more than 4%. Most of that weekly gain came from the stock's performance on Tuesday, when it rose around 4% on the heels of the company saying that it plans to resume deliveries of its H20 general processing units to China "soon." Citigroup rounded out the overbought names this past week, with a 78.1 RSI. That stock gained nearly 8% over the week and has moved more than 47% higher in the last three months. On Tuesday, the firm's second-quarter results topped the Street's expectations on the top and bottom lines, and its net income grew 25% compared to the year-ago period. During a call with analysts, CEO Jane Fraser said that "volatility is going to, I suspect, be a feature not a bug of the new world order, and we will benefit from that." Lab equipment maker Waters Corp was among this week's oversold names, having an RSI of 26.2 and seeing a week-to-date plunge of more than 18%. That adds to its sizable losses in recent months, as the stock has fallen nearly 29% in the last six. Shares kicked off the week with a drop of almost 14% on Monday after the company said that it's going to buy a bioscience and diagnostics unit that was spun off from medical technology company Becton Dickinson for $17.5 billion. The deal is expected to close toward the end of the first quarter of 2026 . Animal health company Zoetis , which had an RSI of 27.7, was also an oversold name. The stock fell more than 4% over the week. Earlier this week, Leerink Partners downgraded Zoetis to market perform from outperform due to worries over the company's long-term growth trajectory. That's based on "rising competition in legacy categories" and a launch of its osteoarthritis treatment known as Librela that "appears to have lost momentum." Most analysts covering Zoetis are still bullish on it, however, as 14 out of 20 analysts have a strong buy or buy rating, per LSEG. The remaining six are neutral with a hold rating.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store