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Dollar sentiment deeply negative, but yield moves may stir volatility: Steve Englander
Dollar sentiment deeply negative, but yield moves may stir volatility: Steve Englander

Economic Times

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Economic Times

Dollar sentiment deeply negative, but yield moves may stir volatility: Steve Englander

"I think that the bond part is reasonably clear. Equities seemed to like it more or less. And the dollar really was not sure. Markets are concerned about the deficit in the US, but they also like higher yield. And what we have seen is that the usual correlation between rates differentials and the dollar has largely been restored over the last months or two months. So, it is very ambiguous right now," says Steve Englander, Standard Chartered Bank. ADVERTISEMENT First question is with respect to Trump tax bill which has been passed by the senate and now requires upper houses approval. If at all that were to be passed, how do you read this development and what does this mean for global equity markets? Steve Englander: Well, the market is still trying to read it and some of the volatility we saw in the New York session is because the market is trying out various reactions. My guess is that it would push up bond yields a little bit because it does seem that where they need to compromise, they compromise on papering over issues, either kind of spending cuts do not get made or tax increases are delayed and likely never to come. So, I think that the bond part is reasonably clear. Equities seemed to like it more or less. And the dollar really was not sure. Markets are concerned about the deficit in the US, but they also like higher yield. And what we have seen is that the usual correlation between rates differentials and the dollar has largely been restored over the last months or two months. So, it is very ambiguous right now. I want to understand from you, now apart from the tax bill that we just spoke about, the tariff deadline of July 9th that is also looming and since the tariffs were announced in April, we have recovered from those lows. In fact, in the US market S&P 500 and Nasdaq they hit their records in the first half of 2025, but then a very interesting trend that we saw yesterday, tech stocks have taken a hit starting the second half of calendar year. So, where do you see the next leg of move coming in for the US markets and also if you could comment on what kind of global risk sentiment do you see shaping up because of the tariff deadline looming? Steve Englander: Well, part of the reason US equity market performance has been so good and part of the reason the dollar has been so weak is that the market has become more optimistic, that the July 8th or 9th deadline is not going to be resolved in an aggressive way the way the April 2nd was, but it will end up being relatively benign. ADVERTISEMENT And the market would love to see the status quo. I know it sounds crazy because everybody is tariffed up, but there is a sentiment that the world can live with the 10% baseline tariffs and they are hoping that the US does do a couple of deals, delays any sanctions, let negotiations continue, and that is pretty much what is priced in. When you are looking at the second half of the year, the market is at certain point going to have to look past both the tariff debate and the fiscal bill and say what is the outlook for growth, what is the outlook for profits and again I would say that it is more ambiguous. ADVERTISEMENT It is not clear that there is that much supply side incentive that is priced into this bill. So, we will have to see how markets react. But it is also possible that exogenous factors that we just see AI implemented and contributing to profits and productivity that, that gives a better tone completely independent of policy. ADVERTISEMENT But also wanted your thoughts on the US dollar and especially dollar index which continues to trade at the lowest level that we have seen since 2022. How do you see the US dollar moving and what kind of impact will that have on other currencies as well? Steve Englander: Well, the market is very negative dollars. Sentiment is very negative dollars. Positioning is negative dollars. And I do not think that global asset managers and investors have sold all the dollars or hedged all the dollar positions that they want. And again, I would say that there are different forces in play. Longer term, it may well be that the dollar continues to fall. But if we end up having yields backing up, the market will have to decide whether to chase yields, which they have done so often, or treat that yield back up as a risk premium which would be negative dollars. So, overall, I would say the longer-term picture is probably not great, but there is balance of forces in the near term that could keep the dollar volatile.

Dollar sentiment deeply negative, but yield moves may stir volatility: Steve Englander
Dollar sentiment deeply negative, but yield moves may stir volatility: Steve Englander

Time of India

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Time of India

Dollar sentiment deeply negative, but yield moves may stir volatility: Steve Englander

"I think that the bond part is reasonably clear. Equities seemed to like it more or less. And the dollar really was not sure. Markets are concerned about the deficit in the US, but they also like higher yield. And what we have seen is that the usual correlation between rates differentials and the dollar has largely been restored over the last months or two months. So, it is very ambiguous right now," says Steve Englander , Standard Chartered Bank . First question is with respect to Trump tax bill which has been passed by the senate and now requires upper houses approval. If at all that were to be passed, how do you read this development and what does this mean for global equity markets? Steve Englander: Well, the market is still trying to read it and some of the volatility we saw in the New York session is because the market is trying out various reactions. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Access all TV channels anywhere, anytime Techno Mag Learn More Undo My guess is that it would push up bond yields a little bit because it does seem that where they need to compromise, they compromise on papering over issues, either kind of spending cuts do not get made or tax increases are delayed and likely never to come. So, I think that the bond part is reasonably clear. Equities seemed to like it more or less. And the dollar really was not sure. Markets are concerned about the deficit in the US, but they also like higher yield. And what we have seen is that the usual correlation between rates differentials and the dollar has largely been restored over the last months or two months. So, it is very ambiguous right now. Live Events I want to understand from you, now apart from the tax bill that we just spoke about, the tariff deadline of July 9th that is also looming and since the tariffs were announced in April, we have recovered from those lows. In fact, in the US market S&P 500 and Nasdaq they hit their records in the first half of 2025, but then a very interesting trend that we saw yesterday, tech stocks have taken a hit starting the second half of calendar year. So, where do you see the next leg of move coming in for the US markets and also if you could comment on what kind of global risk sentiment do you see shaping up because of the tariff deadline looming? Steve Englander: Well, part of the reason US equity market performance has been so good and part of the reason the dollar has been so weak is that the market has become more optimistic, that the July 8th or 9th deadline is not going to be resolved in an aggressive way the way the April 2nd was, but it will end up being relatively benign. And the market would love to see the status quo. I know it sounds crazy because everybody is tariffed up, but there is a sentiment that the world can live with the 10% baseline tariffs and they are hoping that the US does do a couple of deals, delays any sanctions, let negotiations continue, and that is pretty much what is priced in. When you are looking at the second half of the year, the market is at certain point going to have to look past both the tariff debate and the fiscal bill and say what is the outlook for growth, what is the outlook for profits and again I would say that it is more ambiguous. It is not clear that there is that much supply side incentive that is priced into this bill. So, we will have to see how markets react. But it is also possible that exogenous factors that we just see AI implemented and contributing to profits and productivity that, that gives a better tone completely independent of policy. But also wanted your thoughts on the US dollar and especially dollar index which continues to trade at the lowest level that we have seen since 2022. How do you see the US dollar moving and what kind of impact will that have on other currencies as well? Steve Englander: Well, the market is very negative dollars. Sentiment is very negative dollars. Positioning is negative dollars. And I do not think that global asset managers and investors have sold all the dollars or hedged all the dollar positions that they want. And again, I would say that there are different forces in play. Longer term, it may well be that the dollar continues to fall. But if we end up having yields backing up, the market will have to decide whether to chase yields, which they have done so often, or treat that yield back up as a risk premium which would be negative dollars. So, overall, I would say the longer-term picture is probably not great, but there is balance of forces in the near term that could keep the dollar volatile.

1MDB saga: Standard Chartered Bank disputes $3.4 billion claim by liquidators in Singapore
1MDB saga: Standard Chartered Bank disputes $3.4 billion claim by liquidators in Singapore

Singapore Law Watch

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Singapore Law Watch

1MDB saga: Standard Chartered Bank disputes $3.4 billion claim by liquidators in Singapore

1MDB saga: Standard Chartered Bank disputes $3.4 billion claim by liquidators in Singapore Source: Straits Times Article Date: 02 Jul 2025 Author: Grace Leong StanChart said it has not yet received the legal claim documents, and emphatically rejects any claims made by these companies. More than US$2.7 billion (S$3.4 billion) in alleged misappropriated funds is being sought from Standard Chartered Singapore (StanChart) in a High Court lawsuit filed by liquidators in the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) saga. The suit, which represents the latest wide-ranging effort to recover funds siphoned from Malaysia's sovereign wealth fund 1MDB – from which US investigators claim about US$4.5 billion was stolen between 2009 and 2014 – was brought by court-appointed liquidators Angela Barkhouse and Toni Shukla from financial services firm Kroll. When asked by The Straits Times why the lawsuit was being brought at this juncture, a Singapore-based lawyer for the liquidators declined to comment. The suit, which was filed on June 30, seeks to hold StanChart accountable for its role in allegedly enabling fraud to be committed against 1MDB and the systematic theft of funds. Three companies in liquidation linked to 1MDB – Alsen Chance Holdings, Blackstone Asia Real Estate Partners and Brightstone Jewellery – alleged that between 2009 and 2013, StanChart permitted over 100 intra-bank transfers that helped conceal the flow of stolen funds and chose to overlook obvious red flags regarding these transfers. The suit claims that in doing so, the bank failed to comply with Singapore's anti-money laundering (AML) regulations and client due diligence rules. StanChart, in a statement on July 1, said: 'Any claims by these companies are without merit and Standard Chartered will vigorously defend any lawsuit commenced by the liquidators.' The suit claims that the three companies lost over US$2.7 billion and $20 million in public funds. StanChart, in response to ST's queries, said it has 'not yet received the legal claim documents, and emphatically rejects any claims made by these companies'. The liquidators who are making these claims have publicly stated that these companies were shell companies with no legitimate business and were linked to fugitives Low Taek Jho and his associate Eric Tan Kim Loong, StanChart said. They operated under false pretences, and acted as a conduit for funds misappropriated from 1MDB to launder monies, the bank said. According to the lawsuit, the transfers demonstrate serious breaches and control failings that ultimately enabled the theft of public funds by people operating at the highest levels of the Malaysian government during that period. The account held by Blackstone Asia Real Estate – a firm owned by Tan – allegedly disbursed US$150 million directly to the personal bank account of Najib Razak, the former prime minister of Malaysia who has since been jailed for corruption and money laundering. Some US$4.7 million was disbursed to jewellery, watch and bag vendors to pay for the luxury goods purchased by Najib's wife Rosmah Mansor. Another US$1 million allegedly went to Red Granite Pictures, a movie production and distribution company controlled by Rosmah's biological son Riza Aziz, to pay for movie development expenses, among other things. An account held by Alsen Chance Holdings disbursed US$53.4 million to jewellery, watch and bag vendors to pay for Rosmah's luxury goods purchases, and another US$38.75 million to Red Granite Capital. The account held by Brightstone Jewellery disbursed US$77.2 million to jewellery, watch and bag vendors to pay for Rosmah's luxury goods purchases. According to the suit, these amounts, along with the nature of the money flows, are evidence of how StanChart had failed to conduct the anti-money laundering safeguards. In 2016, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) imposed financial penalties of $5.2 million on StanChart and required that disciplinary action be taken against its officers who failed to perform their duties, following findings of significant lapses and serious regulatory breaches. A spokesperson for the 1MDB board said on July 1: 'The Malaysian people were the true victims of this global fraud, and all parties are determined to hold every facilitator to account – including financial institutions that failed in their most basic duties of vigilance and responsibility.' StanChart, in its statement, pointed out that the transactions at issue date back to 2010. 'We reported the transaction activities of these companies, both before and at the time we shut their accounts in early 2013, and fully cooperated with the investigating authorities,' it said. 'As set out in the MAS' December 2016 media release on the penalties on StanChart for 1MDB-related AML breaches, MAS concluded their inspection of StanChart in relation to 1MDB-related fund flows. 'While MAS identified regulatory breaches, the inspection did not find pervasive control weaknesses or wilful misconduct at Standard Chartered,' the bank said. 'Standard Chartered takes our responsibility to fight financial crime extremely seriously. We have made significant investments in strengthening our controls and uplifting our AML standards, and will continue to do so,' it added. Source: The Straits Times © SPH Media Limited. Permission required for reproduction. Print

1MDB liquidators allege serious breaches by Standard Chartered
1MDB liquidators allege serious breaches by Standard Chartered

Qatar Tribune

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Qatar Tribune

1MDB liquidators allege serious breaches by Standard Chartered

Agencies Liquidators of Malaysia's 1MDB sovereign wealth fund have filed a lawsuit against Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore, accusing it of facilitating fraud that resulted in over $2.7 billion in losses more than a decade ago. Standard Chartered on Tuesday said that it emphatically rejected the claims. The move is the latest in a wide-ranging effort to recover money belonging to 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), from which U.S. investigators say about $4.5 billion was stolen between 2009 and 2014 in a complex, globe-spanning scheme. Malaysian authorities have previously said there were billions of dollars more that were unaccounted for. Liquidators from financial services firm Kroll, which filed the lawsuit in the High Court of Singapore, said in a statement on Monday that they were seeking to hold Standard Chartered accountable for its role in allegedly enabling fraud to be committed against 1MDB. Three companies in liquidation linked to 1MDB say Standard Chartered permitted over 100 intrabank transfers between 2009 and 2013 that helped conceal the flow of stolen funds. They also allege the bank chose to overlook obvious red flags in relation to the transfer of funds, resulting in the losses, the liquidators said. 'According to this lawsuit, the transfers demonstrate serious breaches and control failings which ultimately enabled the theft of public funds by people operating at the highest levels of the Malaysian government during that period,' the liquidators said. Standard Chartered said it had not yet received the legal filing documents. 'Any claims by these companies are without merit and Standard Chartered will vigorously defend any lawsuit commenced by the liquidators,' Standard Chartered said in a statement to Reuters. It added that the liquidators had earlier publicly stated the firms involved were shell companies with no legitimate business and were linked to alleged 1MDB mastermind and fugitive Low Taek Jho, also known as Jho Low. Low has consistently denied wrongdoing. The liquidators said the funds that flowed through the Standard Chartered accounts included transfers to the personal bank account of former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is serving a six-year prison sentence after being convicted of graft linked to 1MDB. The fund transfers also involved business payments and purchases of jewelry and luxury goods for Najib's wife and stepson, the liquidators said. Najib and his family members have consistently denied wrongdoing. The board of 1MDB welcomed the move by the court-appointed liquidators. 'The Malaysian people were the true victims of this global fraud, and all parties are determined to hold every facilitator to account – including financial institutions that failed in their most basic duties of vigilance and responsibility,' a spokesperson for the board said. At least six countries, including Singapore and Switzerland, have launched investigations into 1MDB dealings in a global probe that has implicated banking and high-ranking officials worldwide, including Najib and executives from the U.S. bank Goldman Sachs. Malaysia said last year it had recovered a total of 29 billion ringgit ($6.92 billion) in 1MDB assets between 2019 and February 2024.

Emotional Gauff blames switch from clay to grass for Wimbledon defeat
Emotional Gauff blames switch from clay to grass for Wimbledon defeat

Straits Times

time5 days ago

  • Politics
  • Straits Times

Emotional Gauff blames switch from clay to grass for Wimbledon defeat

Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox Coco Gauff of the US (left) congratulates Ukraine's Dayana Yastremska on winning their first-round match. LONDON - A tearful Coco Gauff said she had not coped well with the switch from Paris clay to Wimbledon grass after she was dumped out of the championships in the first round on July 1. The French Open champion looked uncomfortable under the roof on Court One and failed to find any serving rhythm as she succumbed 7-6(3) 6-1 to Ukrainian world number 42 Dayana Yastremska. Gauff was eager to give her big-hitting opponent credit for the win but said she would probably change her tactics in future during the three weeks between Roland Garros and Wimbledon. 'I just feel like the surface I maybe could have used more matches. It's like finding the puzzle,' the American second seed said. 'It's a quick turnaround, so I think just trying to learn on whether it's better to train more and maybe play Bad Homburg or Eastbourne.' Gauff, 21, was knocked out in the first round at Berlin and had little other grasscourt practice before Wimbledon. Her win in Paris was the second Grand Slam victory of her career following last year's US Open triumph. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Seniors can claim $800 SG60 vouchers from July 1; adults to get $600 in vouchers from July 22 Singapore NSman, 30, dies in hospital after collapsing outside Maju Camp Asia Thai PM's suspension could spell end of Shinawatra clan's era of political dominance Singapore Judge rejects woman's claim that she owns 99% of Bukit Timah condo mostly paid for by ex-boyfriend Singapore 'He fought till the end': Man who survived acid attack as a baby dies of cancer at 26 Singapore Trial opens for 3 women who allegedly organised procession outside Istana Business Do not overcommit to a single solution in a multi-polar world, says ex-foreign minister George Yeo Singapore 1MDB saga: Standard Chartered Bank disputes $3.4 billion claim by liquidators in Singapore 'I feel like mentally I was a little bit overwhelmed with everything that came afterwards, so I didn't feel like I had enough time to celebrate and also get back into it,' she said. Gauff wiped away tears as she discussed her disappointment at failing to adjust to the surface, which she said was harder to adapt to than from clay to hard court. 'I have faith that if I can make these adjustments, I can do well here. I really do want to do well here. I'm not someone who wants to write myself off grass this early in my career, but I definitely need to make changes if I want to be successful here,' she said. 'I'm trying to be positive. After the match, I definitely was struggling in the locker room. I don't like losing.' Gauff slipped over several times early in the match, while Yastremska looked sure-footed as she pummelled the American with winners from the baseline. The Ukrainian had reached the final of the Nottingham tournament as well as the quarter-finals at Eastbourne in the run-up to Wimbledon. 'Dayana played great. I felt like I wasn't playing terrible in some points, and she was hitting winners.' Gauff followed compatriot and third seed Jessica Pegula out of the tournament in the first round on July 1. 'I feel like historically Wimbledon always has so many upsets in first rounds here... it's always a topic.' REUTERS

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