Latest news with #TheHill
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Commentary: Trump isn't 'winning' his trade wars
President Trump is on a winning streak, if you trust the news. The New York Times declared recently that "Trump is winning his trade wars." The Hill says he's on a "hot streak." The Associated Press claims "Trump is getting the economy he wants." All this stems from a flurry of trade deals Trump has negotiated leading up to his self-declared Aug. 1 deadline for trading partners to make deals or face his wrath. But this isn't winning. Trump is shackling the US economy and threatening his own political future. His tariffs will inevitably weaken the economy and rattle voters who are already losing faith in Trump's ability to safeguard their prosperity. Trump's supposed "wins" of late include trade deals with South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, and the European Union. Still in the works are deals with Canada, Mexico, and China, the top three US trading partners. Most of the deals announced so far lack specifics and may be more like frameworks for deals that will take months to hammer out. Wall Street likes them anyway. Under the newly minted deals, imports from those countries will face a tax to enter the United States, typically ranging from 15% to 20%. That's not as bad as the 25% tariff or more that some analysts feared. Trump is also reaching these deals without facing any retaliation, such as tariffs on US exports similar to Trump's tariffs on imports. US stocks have been rising on the news. Hooray! The average tax on imports is soaring from about 2.5% before Trump took office to around 18%, according to the Yale Budget Lab. That's certainly an odd win. The tariffs are cutting into profits at Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Procter & Gamble (PG), and many other American companies, including some that say they'll have to pass the higher costs on to consumers through higher prices. Shoppers will face renewed inflationary pressures and a slowdown in hiring likely to come from slower growth. Trump tariff defenders argue that economists have been wrong about inflation because it hasn't shown up yet. But that is probably just a matter of timing. Producers and merchants stocked up on imports during the first quarter, knowing the Trump tariffs were coming. They bought a lot less in the second quarter, when many new tariffs were in effect. That is only now beginning to show up in everyday prices. But the early signs show inflation picking up exactly where you'd expect import tariffs to hit. Inflation data for June showed unusual month-to-month increases in the cost of appliances, toys, clothing, and sporting goods. Imports dominate those product sectors, so if you were looking for tariff-related inflation, that's where you'd find it. "Tariffs [are] beginning to rear their ugly head," Oxford Economics explained in a July 15 analysis. "Tariff impacts on the economy are still in the pipeline."It's an open question whether Trump's import taxes will raise prices enough to cause consumers serious pain. The Yale Budget Lab expects higher tariffs to cost the typical household about $2,100 per year, once importers, suppliers, and consumers have adjusted to higher prices by shifting their business strategies and buying habits. If the government forced every family in the US to cough up an extra $2,100 per year, there would be national outrage and maybe revolt. The tariffs won't work like that. Part of the cost to families will be gradually rising prices, some noticeable, others not. Economists generally think the tariffs will push the annual inflation rate from 2.7% now to the high threes or maybe 4%. It's already up from a low of 2.3% in April. But 4% isn't nearly as painful as the 9% inflation from 2022. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Other parts of the cost to families will come from slower economic growth, which in turn will mean lower pay than some workers would otherwise earn and slightly higher unemployment. Tariffs are inefficient, introducing new costs and barriers to trade. That hurts growth. Trump may hope the costs of his trade wars are imperceptible to most Americans. But he's hedging. Trump wants Congress to pass legislation to send "tariff rebates" of $600 or more to most taxpayers, drawing the funds from new tariff revenue the Treasury is collecting. Thoughtful voters might ask why Trump is imposing new taxes on one hand, then offering relief from those taxes through a rebate. Wouldn't it be better to do nothing in the first place? Given that type of complexity, most Americans will struggle to determine exactly how tariffs are affecting them. But most voters know that Trump is toying with tariffs. They also know Trump signed a big set of tax cuts into law in early July and that Trump is slashing a wide range of government agencies. Trump is forcing a lot of highly visible change on the economy, which means Trump owns the consequences. Voters may already be blaming him for the problems they see. Trump's approval rating for his handling of the economy dropped from 42% in February to 37% in July, according to Gallup. His overall approval rating dropped from 47% when he took office to 37%. Winners don't usually lose popularity. Trump inherited a very prickly electorate when he took office in January. Voters chose Trump in the 2024 presidential race in large part because they wanted him to bring prices down and create more opportunity than they experienced during the Biden years. Trump, so far, is doing the opposite. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was a weak 1.3%, a percentage point lower than in 2024. Spending is slowing down, and inflation is already higher than economists expected late last year after Trump won the election. Consumer confidence has mostly fallen since Trump took office, with the University of Michigan sentiment index nearly as low as it was at the moment of peak inflation in 2022. If Trump is winning, then it's ordinary Americans he's winning against. Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
The Hill
4 hours ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Nadler's Gen Z primary challenger raises over $340K on first day
Rep. Jerry Nadler's (D-N.Y.) Gen Z primary challenger Liam Elkind's campaign said on Thursday it pulled in over $340,000 in fundraising in its first day. 'In just one day, Liam didn't just outraise a 32-year incumbent's entire last quarter, he eclipsed their entire war chest,' Elkind's campaign adviser David Epstein said in a statement. 'That's not just momentum, it's a movement. It's no secret that New Yorkers are demanding bold, new leadership. This surge of grassroots support shows that Liam's unapologetically progressive vision is striking a powerful chord. This is just the beginning,' he continued. The Hill was the first outlet to report on Elkind's fundraising haul. Nadler reported raising over $91,000 in the second quarter of the year and has over $243,000 cash on hand. Elkind, 26, launched his challenge against Nadler, 78, on Wednesday, focusing explicitly on the issue of age. In his launch video, Elkind said he appreciates Nadler's service in office, noting that he grew up voting for him. 'But we need new leaders to meet this moment, because we can't wait,' Elkind said. 'We can't wait to fight Trump, end corruption, ban corporate PAC money, impose term limits, build more housing and serve our neighbors in need.' 2024 Election Coverage Nadler, who was first elected to Congress in 1992, has a strong record of defeating past primary challengers and won reelection in 2022 after he faced off against another incumbent following redistricting. The debate surrounding the age of elected officials in the Democratic Party has grown in recent months. Former President Biden came under scrutiny for initially running for reelection amid questions about his own fitness for office, while a number of Democratic lawmakers, most recently Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), have died in office. Additionally, former Democratic National Committee Vice Chair David Hogg made waves when he launched his group Leaders We Deserve in an effort to elect a new generation of lawmakers and drew headlines for the group's $20 million effort to primary safe House Democrats.
Morocco World
4 hours ago
- Politics
- Morocco World
John Bolton's Defense of Gaza's Siege and Starvation Exposes Algeria's Double Standard
Rabat – Hypocrisy has become a lifestyle for many political advocates who once allegedly claimed to be justice crusaders, but have in recent weeks revealed their true colors by either justifying Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza or blaùing Palestinians for the hell Israeli forces have brought to their lands and homes. Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton is one such advocate. Indeed, Bolton's recent remarks amid Israel's genocidal war suggest that he is either desperate to appease President Donald Trump, or his earlier claims in support of self-determination were bogus and politically motivated. In his latest remarks in an interview with The Hill, Bolton spoke unapologetically in defense of the Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF), slandering the resistance movement Hamas and clearly suggesting that he has no sympathy for suffering and murdered Palestinians. The people of Gaza 'will never enjoy freedom or have any hope for the future unless the 'cancer' of Hamas is dealt with,' Bolton said in the interview . He also accused Hamas of blocking the distribution of aid, defying the well-documented conclusion that Israel's genocidal war tactics, including the weaponization of starvation and the indiscriminate targeting of Palestinian homes and civil infrastructures, are the chief culprits for the deepening of the Palestinian plight since October 2023. In what appeared to be a verbal maneuver to appease Trump's administration and Israel, Bolton also shared a one-sided narrative regarding the US withdrawal from the ceasefire talks in Doha. The main reason for this American move is that Hamas 'has just been operating in bad faith,' he claimed. 'But this decision by the administration, I think, is right, and I think it underlines the dilemma that people trying to understand what's happening in Gaza face is that Hamas is not taking responsibility, and it's not just on the hostage exchange issue. But it is on this humanitarian ad question too.' Converging reports by UN bodies, independent NGOs, and even the leading Israeli right advocacy B'Tselem have strongly denounced Israel's well-documented war crimes in Gaza. Yet Bolton's remarks come to confirm both the double standards of Western political elites and the subtle — and sometimes overt — complicity of Western powers with Israeli crimes. In 2006, Bolton, then US ambassador to the UN, defended Israel's military assaults in Lebanon. CNN quoted him back then as saying: 'What Israel has done in response is act in self-defense… I don't know what the argument about proportionate force means here.' In 2005, Bolton again criticized the UN's treatment of Israel, calling it a 'fantasy.' Algeria is turning a deaf ear Notably, when Bolton publishes an op-ed or makes a televised statement to challenge Morocco's territorial integrity, Algerian state media and mouthpiece press are often the first to report on his words, glorifying his remarks while celebrating him as a 'champion of self-determination.' Algeria's regime and media also gleefully amplify his claims as they align with Algeria's narrative in support of the Polisario Front and against Morocco's sovereignty over its southern provinces in Western Sahara. However, when Bolton speaks of Gaza and resistance movements like Hamas, the same Algerian regime falls silent. In response, Algerian journalist Oulaid Kebir has slammed the Algerian regime's double standard, as well as the silence of mouthpieces for their silence. 'This is what John Bolton – the darling of the Algerian military regime and its American-aligned media- wrote about the war of extermination and starvation in Gaza:' For years, even before October 7, 2023, Hamas has used its ability to control the distribution of food, medicine and other aid for years to enhance its position of control in Gaza,'' Kebir said. He then questioned the silence of outlets like Echorouk Online, which is always quick to publish Bolton's remarks on Morocco's southern provinces in Western Sahara. 'Where are your pens that claim to defend the resistance?' Why don't you criticize him now? Ah, right, because he supports the Polisario? Where are you, Algerie_APS?' the analyst added, referencing the Algerian news agency. He concluded his new brief remarks on the situation, stressing that this strange silence of Algeria's media mouthpieces is 'proof of your hypocrisy and double standards.' Kebir concluded, 'The Palestinian cause doesn't matter to you – not even those misled and trapped in the Tindouf camps. To you, they're all just fuel for your fire of hostility toward Morocco.'
The Hill
5 hours ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Pence's advocacy group urges Trump to pursue ‘maximum pressure' on Iran
Former Vice President Mike Pence's advocacy group on Thursday published a memo urging the Trump administration to deploy a 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran in the wake of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The memo, which was obtained first by The Hill, argues that the administration 'would be wise' to use a maximum pressure strategy against Iran as President Trump has indicated a willingness to engage with Tehran. 'President Trump delivered a critical blow to Iran's attempt to achieve nuclear breakout status, sending Iran's uranium enrichment program back years,' the memo states. 'Even still, as the Trump administration begins to re-engage with Iran, it would be wise to return to its Maximum Pressure posture from the first administration and take heed of the charged situation inside the country.' The memo outlines three key actions for the administration to take. First, it urges the administration to prohibit all uranium enrichment. Second, it calls for imposing 'severe sanctions' on the Iranian regime, similar to the ones used during the first Trump administration when Pence was vice president. The memo also calls for engagement with the Iranian opposition and the right of the Iranian people to 'determine their own destiny by establishing a truly democratic republic, as bipartisan majorities of the House of Representatives have resolved.' Pence was among those who praised Trump after the president ordered strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities in June. The former vice president said the administration did 'what really needed to be done.' While Trump has insisted Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, he has also left the door open at times to engaging with Tehran and has said he would like to see the Iranian economy do well. Pence has emerged as an outspoken critic of Trump and his administration on certain issues, most notably on tariffs and the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. But the former vice president has also used his advocacy group to push for policies that align with the White House, such as extending the tax cuts signed into law in 2017.
The Hill
21 hours ago
- Business
- The Hill
US, China and AI
It's a mindset that has permeated the administration's push to define its AI policy, including as it unveiled its action plan on the subject this month. 'The United States is in a race to achieve global dominance in artificial intelligence,' an introduction to the plan from several key Trump officials reads. 'Whoever has the largest AI ecosystem will set global AI standards and reap broad economic and military benefits.' 'Just like we won the space race, it is imperative that the United States and its allies win this race,' it continues. Outside observers generally say the administration is not overstating either the fact of the intense race or the importance of winning it. They compare the battle to the arms race or the space race in decades past. 'It's an AI arms race,' Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives told The Hill. 'The U.S., I believe, is ahead of China, but China is not sitting on a treadmill.' The release of new AI model from the Chinese startup DeepSeek in January was dubbed 'AI's Sputnik moment' by venture capitalist Marc Andreessen. Sputnik, the first artificial satellite launched into space by the Soviet Union, took the U.S. by surprise and marked the start of the space race between Washington and Moscow. DeepSeek's highly capable model similarly shook the American AI landscape, raising questions for U.S. tech firms about the need for vast investments in computing power and the prospect that Chinese tech firms could eventually surpass them. 'You risk becoming reliant on other countries, and then in a moment of crisis, you may not have access to the technology or software that you need,' Owen Tedford, a senior research analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors, said of the stakes of the AI race.
