Everything you need to know before the ASX opens
Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Tuesday, June 17, 2025. Here's what you should know before the ASX opens today…
The ASX looks set to open in the green on Tuesday, with futures pointing up 0.2% following a relief rally on Wall Street.
Wall Street catches its breath
The S&P 500 climbed 0.94%, the Nasdaq bounced back 1.52%, and the Dow added 0.75% as investors breathed a little easier with oil prices sliding and fears of a wider Middle East war cooling, at least for now.
STOCK INDICES Value Change ASX 200 (previous day) 8,548 0.01% S&P 500 6,033 0.94% Dow Jones 42,515 0.75% Nasdaq Comp 19,701 1.52% Euro Stoxx 50 5,340 0.93% UK FTSE 8,875 0.28% German DAX 23,699 0.78% French CAC 7,742 0.75%
Calmer vibes came as Tehran signalled it was open to talks. Traders welcomed the shift to risk-on, and big names did the heavy lifting.
AMD led a rebound in chip stocks, Meta jumped as it doubled down on AI (again), and Boeing reminded investors it's still crawling forward on the Air Force One project.
All this as investors wait to hear from the Fed Reserve on Wednesday (US time).
A cut is off the cards for now, but Chair Powell's tone could shape the outlook for September.
Money markets are pricing in a 56% chance of a September trim, but some reckon the 'dot plot' might now point to just one cut this year.
Oil cools as Strait of Hormuz stays open
Crude oil prices dropped as much as 3% after Iran reportedly used backchannels to tell the world it doesn't want things to get messier.
WTI slipped below US$71.50 a barrel after Friday's near 7% jump, with traders calming down on fears of an imminent supply shock.
Key pipelines and oil-export infrastructure have so far dodged the fighting. That includes the all-important Strait of Hormuz, the maritime bottleneck where around 20% of global oil moves daily.
Any blockage there and prices would go vertical, but for now, shipping lanes are clear.
Still, the risk hasn't gone away. Israel hit gas production assets and a TV station in Tehran, while Iran launched another wave of drone and missile attacks.
There's plenty of firepower left in this standoff, and any slip-up near Hormuz could send oil soaring, along with inflation expectations.
Economists say central banks like the RBA will try to look through any temporary oil price spikes.
But if the conflict drags on, energy-driven inflation could handcuff the Fed and others well into 2025.
Bitcoin shrugs off war, storms back
While the world watches the oil market, Bitcoin just keeps marching higher.
It reclaimed the US$108,000 level after a weekend wobble, helped along by fresh ETF inflows and traders betting that even if the Fed stays hawkish, crypto might still be the hedge of choice.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in over $300 million in fresh money on Friday, and another billion-dollar buy was reported last night.
However, some analysts warn that if oil keeps rising, crypto mining costs could climb, making BTC's current momentum harder to sustain.
And with the Fed now seen holding rates higher for longer, Bitcoin may need more than just ETF flows to break through resistance at $110k.
And finally...
It's a quiet one on the data front, but all eyes are on the Bank of Japan this morning, the first of three big central banks to make rate calls this week.
No change is expected, but after surprising markets earlier this year by lifting rates for the first time since 2007, investors will be listening closely for tone.
Otherwise, the Fed is front and centre midweek, and the ECB looms on Thursday.
There's also some price index data from New Zealand today. But in truth, most investors are keeping their powder dry until Powell speaks and the war headlines settle.
Commodity/forex/crypto market prices
Price (US) Move Gold: $3,384.67 -1.40% Silver: $36.31 0.01% Iron ore: $95.23 -0.16% Nickel: #N/A #N/A Copper: $9,613.00 1.40% Zinc: #N/A #N/A Lithium carbonate 99.5% Min China Spot: $8,150.00 0.00% Oil (WTI): $71.48 -2.06% Oil (Brent): $73.02 -1.63% AUD/USD: $0.6524 0.53% Bitcoin: $108,632 3.90%
What got you talking
Also in the news…
AnteoTech (ASX:ADO) has entered an agreement with Swiss Wyon AG to evaluate its Ultranode tech for medical applications.
Health Check: A pancreatic cancer 'cure' has been elusive, but Amplia (ASX:ATX) may have cracked the nut.
TRADING HALTS
Blaze Minerals (ASX: BLZ) – cap raise & acquisition
D3 Energy (ASX:D3E) – potential asset acquisition
Emyria (ASX:EMD) – material commercial deal & cap raise
European Lithium (ASX:EUR) – funding transaction for Greenland project
Lithium Universe (ASX:LU7) – acquisition & cap raise
Simble Solutions (ASX:SIS) – cap raise
St Barbara (ASX:SBM) – production guidance update & mining lease renewal
Turaco Gold (ASX:TCG) – cap raise
X2M Connect (ASX:X2M) – cap raise
At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While AnteoTech and Brightstar Resources are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.
This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.
Originally published as Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens
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