Thai GDP forecast cut to 1.7% amid multiple crises and political uncertainty
BANGKOK: The Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF) at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) has revised Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 3% to 1.7%, citing a combination of global and domestic challenges weighing on the economy in the second half of the year.
Thanawat Pholvichai, President of UTCC and the centre's chief adviser, outlined a string of mounting concerns: the ongoing trade war and potential US tariffs on Thai goods, the Israel-Iran conflict, rising tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border, domestic political instability, and the effectiveness of the government's stimulus disbursement.
The revised forecast assumes no further escalation in any of these risk areas.
The outlook hinges on the US imposing only 10–15% tariffs on Thai products — with negotiations now entering the final 10 days before the July 8 deadline.
It also assumes a quick de-escalation of both the Middle East conflict and Thai-Cambodian border issues, and that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra remains in office throughout 2025, enabling 50% of the national budget to be disbursed.
Export growth is still expected to come in at +2.5%. - The Nation/ANN
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Star
an hour ago
- The Star
Thai PM visits flood-hit region as 3,700 homes inundated
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (centre) visiting flood-damaged homes in Phaya Mengrai district in Chiang Rai province on Saturday, June 28. - PHOTO: AFP BANGKOK (AFP) - Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra made an emergency visit on Saturday to the country's flood-hit north, where the military is evacuating residents after monsoon rains inundated thousands of homes. The Royal Thai Army says more than 3,700 homes were flooded across five districts in Chiang Rai province, alongside 80 hectares (200 acres) of agricultural land, with roads made impassable in three areas. Heavy rains are forecast to continue in the coming days, while the military has deployed rafts to ferry residents from their homes engulfed by muddy brown water, according to images shared on their Facebook page. Paetongtarn made a one-day trip to inspect damage in the hardest-hit area of Phaya Mengrai district, 25 kilometres (15 miles) from the Laos border. "The prime minister met with flood-hit communities and asked about their well-being, including access to food, clean water, and care for vulnerable groups," the government said in a statement. Paetongtarn made the visit as she faces mounting pressure in the capital Bangkok, where protesters gathered on Saturday to call for her resignation over a leaked diplomatic phone call. It remains unclear how many people have been impacted by the flooding. However the military said more than 4,400 households had been affected. Thailand's disaster prevention agency said it is closely monitoring water levels and urged communities to move belongings to higher ground in case of flash flooding. While Thailand experiences annual monsoon rains in the third quarter of the year, man-made climate change is causing more intense weather patterns that make destructive floods more likely. Widespread flooding across Thailand in 2011 killed more than 500 people and damaged millions of homes. - AFP
The Star
an hour ago
- The Star
Asean News Headlines at 10pm on Saturday (June 28, 2025)
Malaysia: * Armed Forces must stay prepared, equipped with latest defence technology, says King * Five Malaysians have chosen to remain in Iran, says Foreign Minister * Works Ministry only gets half the money needed for road repairs nationwide, says Ahmad Maslan * Russia to support Malaysia's nuclear technology development, says Fadillah * Only platform providers can block or take down social media content, says Fahmi * 13th Malaysia Plan revision not done in haste, says Fahmi * Sabah polls: PH, Barisan in final stages of talks, says Umno sec-gen * Ploughing and harvesting incentive payments to be completed by July 31, says Mat Sabu * Sabah leads the way with community-based tourism expo, says state minister * Two college students remanded for three days over bullying case * We want you: Non-bumis urged to join the Armed Forces as participation remains low * Penang4Palestine condemns discovery of oxycodone in flour packets for Gaza * Putra Heights inferno: Findings to be made public on June 30, says Selangor MB * Ringgit to trade firmer against US dollar next week, ahead of US labour data * Storm warning: Thunderstorms, heavy rain expected over nine states, two FTs until 7pm / MetMalaysia issues thunderstorm, heavy rain warning for four states * Malay unity call falls flat - Those asking Malays to come together have been around for decades during which they beat the unity drum when it suited them. Singapore: * Singapore has increased its security posture amid rising tensions from Iran-Israel conflict, says national security minister * 'Super Rich In Korea's' David Yong, accused of multiple offences, allowed to leave Singapore in July * Six endangered fish species found in fish maw from Singapore and Malaysia's stores: Study * Organised crime groups behind in-flight theft cases, says Singapore Police Force * Singapore: Kitten reportedly put in container now adopted, probe underway * Oil prices steadies at the weekend after report of planned OPEC+ August output hike Indonesia: * Indonesian urges safer hiking after tourist death on Mount Rinjanil; Malaysian hiker rescued after suffering injury at same mountain * Women's growing role in drug trade sparks exploitation concerns in Indonesia * Malaysian climber injured in Gunung Rinjani mishap in Indonesia * Malaysia, Indonesia agree Asean unity vital to address global challenges * Anwar, Prabowo, call for broader peace in the Middle East Returning pilgrims receive assistance as they disembark from their aircraft upon arrival at the Sultan Iskandar Muda International Airport in Blang Bintang, Aceh province on Saturday, June 28, 2025, after performing the annual Haj pilgrimage. -- Photo by CHAIDEER MAHYUDDIN / AFP Thailand: * Thailand starts banning the sale of cannabis without a prescription * Thai authorities find 620 sacks of cannabis hidden in durian and coconut orchards * Thai PM Paetongtarn faces more heat as thousands of protesters on Saturday demand her resignation over disastrous phone call * Thai protesters call for Prime Minister Paetongtarn's resignation * Thailand to hold trade talks with US next week Philippines: * Philippine prosecutors ask Senate to proceed with Duterte trial; case must go on due to severity of charges * Rising tennis star Eala makes history for Philippines by reaching Eastbourne final * China says Philippines face 'self-inflicted destruction' by hosting US missiles * 6.1-magnitude offshore earthquake hits southern Philippines * Bank on Manila banks -- The Philippine banking sector is on track for solid growth Vietnam: * Former English football star Michael Owen scores twice in Manchester United Legends win against Vietnam * SAR ops saved over 1,000 lives at sea nationwide in 2024, says MMEA * Vietnam Airlines suspends pilots after planes collide at Hanoi airport * UK joins Asean talks on transnational crime for the first time * Vietnam approves resolution to establish international financial centres; move more appealing to international investors Australia's Maya Joint poses with the trophy after beating Philippines' Alexandra Eala in their women's singles final tennis match on day six of the Lexus Eastbourne International tennis tournament in Eastbourne, southern England, on Saturday, June 28, 2025. Joint won the match in three sets, 12-10 in a third set tie-break. - Photo by Adrian Dennis / AFP Myanmar: * Myanmar marks MSME Day with focus on digitalisation * Myat Yadanar Soe crowned Miss Universe Myanmar 2025 * South Korea praises Malaysia's Asean Chair role in Myanmar crisis * Myanmar burns confiscated drugs worth around US$300 million Cambodia: * Cambodia's ruling party marks 74th founding anniversary on Saturday (June 28) * Asean integration drives development of independent regional financial system, analyst says * Cambodia says it is not and will not be importing electricity from Thailand * Hun Sen: I was betrayed first -- Former Cambodian leaders hits back at Thailand's Thaksin Laos: * China-Laos Railway sees over 10 billion yuan in trade value from Jan-May * Laos faces widespread flooding as rains continue befall country * Laos explores national data centre development to drive digital transformation Brunei: * Brunei crown prince joins new Islamic year prayer * Brunei GDP declines 1.8 per cent in first quarter of 2025 * Brunei leader Sultan Hassanal calls to address challenges of AI era for the future Cricket - Women's Twenty20 International - England v India - Trent Bridge Cricket Ground, Nottingham, Britain - June 28, 2025England's Sophia Dunkley looks dejected after losing her wicket. -- Action Images via Reuters/Andrew Boyers AseanPlus: * One of the most famous faces of football in South-East Asia, Malaysia's evergreen coach K. Rajagobal returns with his book 'Inilah Saya' * Miti supports young entrepreneus through DEFA, Asean SME Academy, says Tengku Zafrul * Legal process must prevail over politics in Sabah mining licence probe, says Masidi * Durian frenzy: 3 tonnes sold in 12 hours at Johor carnival * Tourism Malaysia anticipates boost in Australian visitors with new flight route * KL Sing Song celebrates 20 years with reunion at Merdekarya * New Zealand woman injured after fall at Kanching Waterfall * 'Serious violations': Former head of major Chinese airline under graft investigation * 'Squid Game' star Jo Yu-ri to return as singer next month * Ex-New York official facing China agent charge indicted for kickbacks * Chinese energy firms say Brazil must clarify rules or face loss of investments * Murder suspect's girlfriend charged over abetting his escape from Hong Kong * Hong Kong to hold public hospital executives accountable for medical incidents * Carmakers GM, Tesla and Ford lead list of US companies in China exposure: report * Chinese reporter injured in Ukraine drone attack on Kursk * Americans trying to send Bibles to N. Korea arrested * Trump victorious again as US Supreme Court wraps up its term * Hong Kong sharpens crypto hub focus amid rising global competition * Senior military official Miao Hua purged from top ruling body in China * Flood-hit China expands social security net as extreme rain takes toll * South Korea ex-President Yoon probed over failed martial law bid * 'Problem what problem' - Trump says he will get the conflict solved with North Korea * Ardent Japanese fans bid farewell to four lovable giant pandas as they return to China * Hong Kong woman opens up about life after moment her heart stopped beating * China woman in Ukraine cares for US$140,000 Bengal tiger, shares daily life online * West Bank health crisis deepens as WHO warns of deadly access barriers and critical shortages * Newlyweds Bezos and Sanchez gear up for final party at Venice gala * US says deal with Beijing will expedite rare earth exports from China * Pikachu and Snorlax named Japan's ambassadors to encourage better sleeping habits * Ardent Japanese fans bid farewell to four lovable giant pandas as they return to China * Cricket - Jayasuriya decimates Bangladesh as Sri Lanka win by innings and 78 runs * Cricket - Captain Cummins backs youngster Konstas as Australia cruise to West Indies win * Badminton - Japan's former star Momota returns at Lin Dan Cup * Motor racing - Norris fastest in final Austrian GP practice * Motorcycling - Yamaha's Quartararo pips Ducatis to clinch Dutch Grand Prix pole * Motorcycling - Marquez on cloud nine with ninth sprint victory of season at Dutch GP
The Star
3 hours ago
- The Star
'Super Rich In Korea's' David Yong, accused of multiple offences, allowed to leave Singapore in July
SINGAPORE (The Straits Times/ANN): Singaporean businessman David Yong, who was featured in the Netflix series 'Super Rich In Korea' and accused of multiple offences, has been granted permission to leave Singapore for business trips to South Korea and Malaysia. On June 27, a district court allowed him to travel to Seoul from July 4 to 11, and Kuala Lumpur from July 14 to 21. His current bail of S$1 million (RM3.3 million) was also increased by another S$500,000 (RM1.65 million). The 38-year-old Singaporean, whose full name is Yong Khung Lin, is the chief executive of a group of companies collectively known as Evergreen Group Holdings. He was charged in 2024 with four counts of falsification of accounts. On June 3, he was handed his fifth charge involving more than 1,000 promissory notes made by a company linked to him. In his fourth travel application on June 27, Yong, who is represented by lawyers Navin Naidu, Philip Teh and Aaron Lim of Dentons Rodyk & Davidson, sought permission to attend to 'urgent matters' for his businesses overseas, including securing new office premises. In earlier proceedings, the court heard that he had a Cambodian passport under the name 'Duong Dara', which he claimed to have surrendered to Cambodian authorities in June 2024. In March, District Judge Brenda Tan rejected his application to leave Singapore, as there was no official confirmation on the whereabouts of his Cambodian passport. On June 27, Naidu told the court that while the whereabouts of Yong's Cambodian passport might not have been completely resolved in the past, the issue is now 'conclusively resolved'. Naidu also submitted that Yong has no interest in applying for any other foreign passports. The lawyers also tendered supporting documents showing that their client was physically required to attend to his business matters in South Korea and Malaysia. Judge Tan then granted Yong permission to leave Singapore in July under multiple conditions. Among other things, he must furnish the complete travel itinerary before his departure to the investigation officer (IO) or an officer acting under the latter's direction. He must also surrender his passport to the IO or an officer acting under the latter's direction within 24 hours of his return on July 21. Yong was arrested on Aug 1, 2024, just three months after he appeared in Super Rich In Korea'. He faced his first charge two days later over allegations he abetted a woman identified as Ms Jolene Low Mong Han to falsify papers belonging to Evergreen GH – an entity under Evergreen Group Holdings. According to court documents, Yong allegedly instigated Low on or around Dec 16, 2021, to falsify a tax invoice dated Sept 1, 2021, from Evergreen Assets Management for purported bulk sales of household fittings and appliances to a person named Mr Roy Teo. Yong was later handed his second and third charges in relation to a promissory note arrangement involving Evergreen Group Holdings. They relate to events on or around Dec 16, 2021. Yong is said to have instigated Ms Low to falsify two tax invoices from Evergreen Assets Management for purported sales of furniture to two separate entities. He appeared again in court on Aug 15, 2024, over allegations that he falsified papers belonging to Evergreen GH, formerly known as Evergreen Assets Management. Yong was handed his fifth charge earlier in June. In his latest charge, he is accused of consenting to the offering of promissory notes by Evergreen GRP Holdings between July 2023 and July 2024 that did not comply with requirements under the Securities and Futures Act (SFA). According to the Singapore Legal Advice website, a promissory note is a written and signed unconditional promise made by a borrower to pay a certain sum of money to a specified party. This party may be a person or company. Such notes are considered contracts and are legally enforceable. In a statement on June 3, the police said more than $61 million was raised from the issuance of over 1,000 promissory notes that promised an annual interest of 10 per cent. 'Under the SFA, any offer of securities must be made in or accompanied by a prospectus that is lodged with and registered by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, unless an exemption applies,' a police spokesperson said. 'The prospectus must contain all the information that investors and their advisers would reasonably require to make an informed investment decision. As such, members of the public are advised to exercise caution when dealing with such offers without a prospectus.' Yong's pre-trial conference will take place on July 18. - The Straits Times/ANN
