Latest news with #Thai-Cambodian
Bangkok Post
9 hours ago
- Politics
- Bangkok Post
Not the right path to peace
Not the right path to peace Thai-Cambodian border tensions are close to boiling point after talks between the two sides failed to overcome the deep distrust between them, according to critics. Despite Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra hailing a recent Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) meeting in Phnom Penh to defuse border tensions a success, critics insist the talks lacked what was needed for achieving a sustained peace. The agenda was devoid of the central objective -- to try and resolve the Chong Bok dispute, along with three other border spats at the three ancient temple complexes of Ta Muen Thom, Ta Muen Toch, and Ta Kwai. This is because Cambodia had announced before the JBC meeting that it would proceed with its threat to take the Chong Bok and three other disputes to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, despite Thailand not accepting the court's jurisdiction. It brought into question the effectiveness of the JBC as a primary bilateral mechanism for addressing technical and international legal matters related to border demarcation. The doubt was raised as former foreign minister Surakiart Sathirathai slammed Cambodia for stoking tensions along the border to divert attention away from its own internal problems and exploit Thailand's political weakness. "Cambodia always does this when it has internal problems -- economic trouble or upcoming elections. They stir up border tensions to create a nationalist distraction," he said. He cited the dispute over the Preah Vihear temple area, where clashes between Thailand and Cambodia took place more than a decade ago. He warned that the current border row may follow the same trajectory, leading to an armed confrontation and international legal challenges. The JBC session ended with the Senate vowing to convene a general debate to grill the government over its handling of the border issue. Panitan Wattanayagorn, a noted international relations scholar, said three decades have passed since Thailand and Cambodia began efforts to resolve their recurring border tensions through various joint committees -- namely, the JBC, General Border Committee (GBC), and Regional Border Committee (RBC). "Yet, peace remains elusive," he said in a Facebook post, with sporadic flare-ups and even military clashes resulting in casualties, closed border checkpoints, and diplomatic breakdowns. Since 1995, both countries have tried to address border disputes via these multilateral platforms, but with mixed results. The JBC, established in 1997, was meant to delineate land boundaries. Meanwhile, the GBC and RBC, driven by military and defence ministries, were tasked with ensuring security and de-escalation. However, despite these mechanisms, armed conflicts have erupted multiple times -- claiming hundreds of lives and prompting the burning of the Thai embassy in Phnom Penh in 2003. These incidents reflect a volatile and fragile bilateral relationship even after 75 years of formal diplomacy. In 2000, both sides signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU 43) to facilitate joint boundary surveys. Critically, Clause 5 stipulated that neither party should unilaterally alter the environment in disputed border zones. However, this provision has reportedly been violated hundreds of times -- in nearly 30 locations -- particularly in military zones under Thailand's First and Second Army Regions. Many of these incidents are perceived by Thai authorities as Cambodian encroachments, raising concerns about Thailand's sovereignty and long-term national security. On June 14, Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs convened a JBC meeting, emphasising dialogue to prevent future conflicts -- such as the recent May 28 skirmish. However, critics argue that the JBC's mandate is too narrow and ill-suited for managing real-time military escalations or MOU violations. Unlike the JBC, the GBC and RBC have access to more precise military intelligence and classified political information that could highlight Cambodian incursions. But much of this information remains undisclosed due to its sensitive nature, especially in international arenas. Cambodia's refusal to discuss these contested zones during the June 14 JBC meeting signals strategic deflection, according to Mr Panitan. Phnom Penh has instead pressed ahead with taking the matter to the ICJ, knowing full well Thailand does not recognise the court's jurisdiction on this issue. Even if Thailand were to shift its stance, the ICJ lacks the authority to make definitive rulings on territorial ownership and would likely redirect both nations back to bilateral negotiations -- much like the 1962 ruling on the Preah Vihear temple. Mr Panitan said that during the JBC meeting, the top priority should have been to persuade Cambodia to re-engage in the existing conflict-resolution framework -- respecting previously agreed rules and returning to the negotiating table. This requires both positive and negative incentives. Cambodia must be discouraged from using force or leveraging international sympathies to isolate Thailand diplomatically. Simultaneously, incentives should make it more attractive for Cambodia to pursue peaceful negotiation. The security expert also stressed a balanced strategy, which lies in applying both "carrots" (rewards) and "sticks" (pressure). He added that joint drills should be conducted to demonstrate preparedness while seeking military alliances for modern weaponry and ammunition in case of escalation. Thailand must proactively engage with the UN, Asean, and other stakeholders to counteract Cambodian lobbying and assert its position with clarity and confidence. On economic levers, Mr Panitan said the temporary closure of informal or secondary border crossings could apply economic pressure. Many of these crossings are critical for Cambodian access to Thai markets and supplies. However, the Thai government must mitigate impacts on local businesses and civilians. At the same time, MOU 43 should be amended or replaced altogether to reflect current realities and close loopholes that allow repeated violations. "Importantly, Thailand must not be outmanoeuvred by Cambodia or domestic actors with shortsighted agendas. National leadership across all sectors must be firm yet diplomatic, peace-loving but not passive, and decisive when necessary," he said. Mr Panitan concluded that the JBC, GBC, and RBC could remain part of the diplomatic architecture, but they are not the full answer. Only a mix of real strategic commitment, national unity, intelligent diplomacy, and carefully calibrated incentives will prevent the next border conflict -- and build a lasting peace between Thailand and Cambodia. Backs are against the wall The recent withdrawal of the Bhumjaithai Party from the coalition government has thrust the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration into a precarious situation. From a solid coalition with 332 House seats, the Pheu Thai Party-led government has suddenly become one with a slim majority. With Bhumjaithai's 69 seats gone, the government now commands just 261 votes in the 495-member House of Representatives -- a majority of about 13. This raises serious questions about the government's stability, especially since public trust continues to erode following the controversial leaked phone call between Ms Paetongtarn and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen. The audio, widely shared online, has Ms Paetongtarn asking Hun Sen for help to stabilise her position as PM. In return, she was heard offering him anything he wanted. Rather than stepping down or calling an election, Ms Paetongtarn has decided to stay in power by reshuffling the cabinet among parties left in the coalition. The eight ministerial positions vacated by Bhumjaithai will be divided among the remaining coalition partners. The move has put the government into political survival mode, and Ms Paetongtarn and her government will find it harder to stay in power, according to Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University's political science and law faculty. When people lose trust in the prime minister, she loses the legitimacy to stay in office. She should have shown responsibility instead of reallocating the eight posts and turning a deaf ear to public criticism, he said. Critics are set to hold a mass protest today to demand Ms Paetongtarn's resignation over the leaked audio clip and her handling of the ongoing border conflict with Cambodia. From Pheu Thai's perspective, it would not be in the party's best interests if Ms Paetongtarn stepped down now. So the party is trying to stabilise the government by reallocating the vacant posts to strengthen its position, according to Mr Olarn. However, the analyst said it is likely to prolong the government's term for only a little while and Ms Paetongtarn is expected to face several legal actions stemming from mismanagement of national affairs and the audio leak, which could see her suspended from performing her duties, he said. Mr Olarn said Pheu Thai's loss may be the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party's gain, and this could be why the now second-biggest party in the coalition has chosen to stay put. Some observers believe that UTN leader, Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, is waiting for an opportunity if a political accident befalls Pheu Thai. In the event Ms Paetongtarn quits as prime minister, Mr Pirapan, who is a prime ministerial candidate, has a chance of replacing her should the UTN be able to mobilise sufficient support in parliament. However, as things stand, the UTN's decision to support Ms Paetongtarn for now could also fuel public discontent and trigger widespread protests, he said. Another reason why Pheu Thai needs to stay in power is that it is determined to go after its major rival, Bhumjaithai, and is believed to be seeking Bhumjaithai's dissolution, said the analyst. Bhumjaithai faces allegations of colluding to manipulate the outcome of last year's Senate election, which is seen as a breach of democratic principles and justifies party disbandment. A group of senators, or the "blue group" which is said to have close ties with Bhumjaithai, is also targeting Ms Paetongtarn by petitioning the Constitutional Court to rule whether she should be removed from office based on ethical violations related to the Hun Sen phone call. "If Ms Paetongtarn ends up like former prime minister Srettha Thavisin, she may be forced to step aside and allow Mr Pirapan to replace her while Pheu Thai stays in power and goes after Bhumjaithai," Mr Olarn said. Mr Srettha was removed by the Constitutional Court last year over his controversial appointment of Pichit Chuenban to the cabinet. Pichit was convicted of contempt of court for attempting to bribe Supreme Court officials in 2008 while representing former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a controversial land case. The law forbids the appointment of cabinet ministers with a criminal background. A prime minister who approves such appointments is liable for legal action for an ethical violation. Both Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai are in hot water, and which party survives may depend on which side the old power clique chooses to support, he said. It is believed a House dissolution is not an option because a fresh election could benefit the main opposition People's Party (PP), which will likely gain more seats than before. It is something the old guard does not want to see happen. "But staying in power will get harder by the day. The Paetongtarn administration may not last beyond the end of the year ... to ensure that Bhumjaithai is dissolved and Pheu Thai becomes the only choice of the old power block," he said.
Bangkok Post
9 hours ago
- Politics
- Bangkok Post
'We can scramble jets in 5 minutes,' says RTAF chief
The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) has affirmed its readiness amid border tensions with Cambodia, saying fighter jets can be deployed within five minutes if conflict erupts. ACM Phanpakdee Phatthanakun, commander of the RTAF, also expressed confidence that the air force is fully prepared to deploy combat aircraft within five minutes should any military confrontation arise along the Thai-Cambodian border. The statement comes amid growing tensions following remarks by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet regarding military incentives. Speaking at parliament, ACM Phanpakdee said that the Defence Council has approved contingency planning for border scenarios. He stressed that Thailand's preparation is standard protocol, aiming solely to uphold national sovereignty rather than to provoke or escalate conflict. When asked about Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet's declaration offering bonuses to Cambodian soldiers for shooting down Thai fighter jets, ACM Phanpakdee downplayed the threat. "Our operations will not reach that level of escalation," he said. "Our duty is to protect our sovereignty. There is no cause for concern, as we have no intention of invading anyone. Our focus remains on maintaining the highest level of readiness to safeguard the nation." Regarding public confidence in national defence capabilities, the air force chief urged people to place their trust in the armed forces. "The Royal Thai Air Force, alongside the other military branches, maintains maximum readiness and confidence in our defensive responsibilities. We are steadfast in our commitment to non-aggression," he added. The Centre for Border Affairs Management (CBAM) has meanwhile confirmed that the current security situation along the Thai-Cambodian border remains stable, with no significant changes. CBAM emphasised the continued unity and coordination among Thai agencies and indicated that measures are being considered to ease cross-border transport following damage to goods due to logistical delays. Additionally, temporary exemptions for cross-border labourers may be granted ahead of the upcoming harvest. At Government House yesterday, Maratee Nalita Andamo, deputy spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, alongside Rear Admiral Surasak Khongsiri, deputy spokesman for the Royal Thai Armed Forces Headquarters, said reports from security agencies and local authorities responsible for border checkpoints confirmed that the overall situation remains orderly. Exceptions are still being granted for medical patients requiring treatment in Thailand, students, and other individuals with essential daily needs who need to cross the border.
Bangkok Post
a day ago
- Politics
- Bangkok Post
Thai activist says King can't be politicised
Wirangrong Dabbaransi, head of the Network of Universities for Reform, has called on academics to withdraw their royal petition seeking intervention from His Majesty the King in Thailand's political crisis. She warned that such a move risks politicising the monarchy and undermining constitutional processes. The petition, led by Assoc Prof Arnond Sakworawich of the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) and signed by 55 academics, urges royal involvement in resolving political tensions surrounding the Thai-Cambodian border conflict. It is scheduled for submission on Friday. In a strongly worded Facebook post, Ms Wirangrong argued that the monarchy must remain above politics. "These disputes should be resolved through legal and constitutional channels, not by burdening the monarchy," she said, noting that the King has always supported the nation through quiet, wise actions. She cautioned that such a petition could drag the monarchy into partisan conflict, pointing out that the King's advisors, the Privy Council, have never advocated royal intervention in political matters. Ms Wirangrong urged all sides to wait for the outcome of ongoing legal proceedings involving Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, including a Constitutional Court ruling due July 1 and investigations by the National Anti-Corruption Commission. She also appealed to Constitutional Court judges to rule strictly according to the law, saying that public trust in the judiciary is key to avoiding extra-legal petitions that could disturb the monarchy. "If the people trust the courts, no one would feel compelled to appeal to the King," she said. Questioning the legality of the petition, Ms Wirangrong noted that the 2017 constitution does not grant the King power to appoint or remove governments. Referring to Section 5, which allows traditional practices only when the constitution is silent, she argued that constitutional mechanisms are already in place and should be followed. She also raised concerns about the rushed nature of the petition, launched just days before its submission and ahead of planned protests, suggesting it may be politically motivated. The campaign, she warned, could unintentionally pave the way for controversial legislation, especially the political amnesty bill supported by the Pheu Thai Party and the Move Forward Party. Despite the good intentions of some petitioners, Ms Wirangrong appealed for them to withdraw their support. She suggested joining peaceful demonstrations on Saturday.
The Star
a day ago
- Business
- The Star
Thai GDP forecast cut to 1.7% amid multiple crises and political uncertainty
BANGKOK: The Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF) at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) has revised Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 3% to 1.7%, citing a combination of global and domestic challenges weighing on the economy in the second half of the year. Thanawat Pholvichai, President of UTCC and the centre's chief adviser, outlined a string of mounting concerns: the ongoing trade war and potential US tariffs on Thai goods, the Israel-Iran conflict, rising tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border, domestic political instability, and the effectiveness of the government's stimulus disbursement. The revised forecast assumes no further escalation in any of these risk areas. The outlook hinges on the US imposing only 10–15% tariffs on Thai products — with negotiations now entering the final 10 days before the July 8 deadline. It also assumes a quick de-escalation of both the Middle East conflict and Thai-Cambodian border issues, and that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra remains in office throughout 2025, enabling 50% of the national budget to be disbursed. Export growth is still expected to come in at +2.5%. - The Nation/ANN
Nikkei Asia
a day ago
- Politics
- Nikkei Asia
Through the Lens: Thai-Cambodian border dispute and floods in China
Through the Lens: Thai-Cambodian border dispute and floods in China The Thai government's decision to close all land borders with Cambodia has cast a shadow over an estimated 1.2 million Cambodian migrant workers - and the Thai economy. Cambodians carrying their belongings prepare to cross the border to Cambodia during a temporary opening that enabled stranded Thais to come the other way. The Ban Khlong Luk border checkpoint in Aranyaprathet district, Sa Kaeo province, and other crossing points was closed by the Thai military following a border spat. This was presented by the Thai army as part of a broader crackdown on multiple transnational scam centers operating along the border. (Photo by Rungroj Yongrait/EPA/Jiji) Cambodians queuing at Ban Khlong Luek, a border checkpoint in eastern Thailand's Sa Kaeo province. The Thai military closed all border crossings into Cambodia to virtually everyone, including tourists and traders. (Photo by Gobthanadesh Toraksa/Reuters) A fleeing Cambodian hauls his possessions toward the border at Aranyaprathet during a temporary reopening on June 24 for Cambodians to leave and Thais to return home. (Photo by Rungroj Yongrit/EPA/Jiji) Thai police officers check the documents of departing Cambodians during a temporary reopening of the Ban Khlong Luk border checkpoint in Aranyaprathet district, Sa Kaeo province, Thailand, on June 24. (Photo by Rungroj Yongrit/EPA/Jiji) A royalist activist holds a placard that reads "Thai government with Khmer heart Get Out" during an anti-government protest, following a leak of a phone call between Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia's Hun Sen near the Government House, in Bangkok on June 19. (Photo by Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters) Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, foreground, delivers a speech in front of his troop during his visit to Preah Vihear, near Cambodia-Thailand border in Preah Vihear province, Cambodia, on June 23. (Photo by AKP/AP) Nationalist protesters march through Phnom Penh, the Cambodian capital, on June 18. (Photo by Kyodo) Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra speaks during a press conference on June 19 following the leak of a private phone call between her and Hun Sen, Cambodia's senate president and former prime minister. (Photo by Panumas Sanguanwong/Reuters) Thailand's Suranaree Task Force personnel stand guard at Morakot Operations Base in Ubon Rathchathani province during a visit by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. (Photo by Government House of Thailand/Reuters) Thai police officers talk to people near a border checkpoint between Thailand and Cambodia, in Sa Kaeo province on June 24. (Photo by Royal Thai Army/AP) Cambodians prepare to cross the border at the Ban Khlong Luek border checkpoint. (Photo by Rungroj Yongrit/EPA/Jiji) Cambodians wave travel documents at the Ban Khlong Luek border checkpoint. (Photo by Rungroj Yongrit/EPA/Jiji) Thai paramilitary personnel at Ban Khlong Luek checkpoint 0n June 24 during the Thailand-Cambodia border closure. (Photo by Rungroj Yongrit/EPA/Jiji) Severe flooding in China's southwestern province of Guizhou has forced more than 80,000 people out of their homes, Beijing's state media reported on June 25. Flooded buildings in Rongjiang in China's Guizhou province on June 24. (Photo by AFP/Jiji) Residents clear away mud after a flood in Congjiang county, Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous prefecture, Guizhou province, on June 25. (Photo by CNS/Reuters) A debris-strewn street after floodwaters receded in Rongjiang county on June 25. (Photo by CNS/Reuters) Rescue workers evacuate a resident from a flood-affected area in Rongjiang county on June 24. (Photo by China Daily/Reuters) People gather their belongings in a flood-affected area in Congjiang on June 25. (Photo by STR/AFP/Jiji)
